Small Moves, Good Moves for Tribe

The baseball winter meetings came and went for the Cleveland Indians without any moves.

However, in the week after the get together, the Tribe started adding some pieces, mostly to upgrade the pitching staff, and in particular, the bullpen.

First, GM Chris Antonetti added reliever John Axford, presumably to be the leading candidate to be the closer.

The right-hander led the National League in saves in 2011 with 46 for the Brewers and had 35 more in ’12. That year, his home runs allowed started to rise and last year, his strikeouts dropped to just one per inning.

Keep in mind; he fanned 179 in 143 innings in ’11 and ’12 combined.

He pitched well for the Cardinals down the stretch and in the post-season after being traded to them last season.

We feel he is in the same position as Vinnie Pestano, a pitcher who has had a great deal of success for two or three years, and simply just had a bad season. It wouldn’t be a surprise if both hurlers didn’t bounce back in 2014.

He averaged 95 MPH on his fastball last year, so his troubles weren’t a result of losing his stuff.

A few days later, the Indians signed RHP Shaun Marcum to a minor league deal. Marcum has had success in the past in Toronto and Milwaukee but had some circulation troubles last year with the Mets. Those problems were taken care of with surgery, so he should be ready.

Marcum is typical of the low risk, high reward signings Antonetti specializes in. Certainly, the Tribe’s success in taking care of rehabbing pitchers probably draws pitchers who are coming off injuries.

If the right-hander is sound, he can be a middle of the rotation starter. He’s basically this year’s version of Scott Kazmir, and much like him, he’s not a guy Terry Francona can count on going into spring training, so the Indians still need rotation help.

Yesterday, Antonetti pulled off a deal, sending OF Drew Stubbs to Colorado for LHP Josh Outman, a LOOGY. Stubbs is a fourth outfielder type with good speed, a good glove, and a guy who strikes out a ton.

Outman will help in the bullpen, as he held left-handed hitters to a batting average under .200 for his career. He will take Rich Hill’s place in the ‘pen.

What the Stubbs deal really does is free up money. The outfielder would have received somewhere between $3-$4 million in arbitration had he went that route, so trading him frees up that money in the Cleveland budget.

(Of course, we’ll ask again…where did that national television contract cash go?)

That money should help in getting a legitimate starting pitcher to slot between Justin Masterson and Danny Salazar in the rotation. And if that’s the case, then the trade is really a no-brainer.

With the addition of David Murphy and the likelihood that he and Ryan Raburn will platoon in right field, Stubbs became superfluous.

And the Indians, in their mid-market situation, can’t afford to pay players who won’t get a lot of at bats, $3 million per year.

We still see a big acquisition this winter for the Tribe, probably a starter, and dealing Stubbs is a step in that direction. Picking up a guy who can be a useful relief pitcher is icing on the cake.

Remember that last year, fans scoffed at getting players like Kazmir, Jason Giambi, and Raburn. They worked out in these cases, but seriously, what’s the harm in taking a chance on guys like them.

Hopefully, one of the players who joined the organization this week can have the same effect on the 2014 Tribe.

Don’t Panic About Tribe’s Inactivity Thus Far

This week the hot stove season in baseball went crazy early. Heck, the winter meetings, usually the hub of off-season activity doesn’t start until tomorrow.

Tuesday saw a large number of trades, mostly involving the Oakland A’s, and the high-profile signing of OF Jacoby Ellsbury by the Yankees.

Yesterday, Robinson Cano inked a ten-year pact with the Mariners, and the Yankees feeling a need to keep paying players ridiculous amounts of cash, signed OF Carlos Beltran.

Of course, Indians’ fans are filled with angst because so far, GM Chris Antonetti has really only made one move, getting free agent OF David Murphy from Texas to platoon in the outfield.

In that time, Cleveland has lost two starting pitchers in Ubaldo Jimenez and Scott Kazmir, and several bullpen pieces, most notably Joe Smith and Chris Perez.

We are telling fans to relax, take a deep breath. The Tribe will make some moves to improve this club soon.

You see, most baseball experts will tell you that the players who have already signed are being overpaid. Hasn’t Seattle learned from the Alex Rodriguez and Albert Pujols deals that paying huge amounts of money to a 41-year old player isn’t a good idea?

Kazmir received two years at $11 million per season. With his recent past of pitching in the independent league, would you feel comfortable paying him that kind of money?

As for Smith, we’ve heard several people on MLB Network saying there are many relievers on the same level as the former Tribesman that will be paid far less in 2014.

There are still some quality starting pitchers on the market and our guess is the Tribe is interested in them. The two most interesting names are former Indian Bartolo Colon, who will turn 41 next season, but he won 18 games for Oakland in ’13 and threw 190 innings. His arm is still good because he throws mostly fastballs.

Another veteran arm Cleveland could have interest in is Bronson Arroyo, who pitched for Terry Francona in Boston. Arroyo will turn 37 in a few months, but has thrown 199 innings or more for nine consecutive seasons, and has a career ERA of 4.19. He did very well in Cincinnati despite pitching in a home stadium known for offense.

Antonetti could also work the trade market. Since last winter, SS Asdrubal Cabrera’s name has been bandied about as bait, and it may be time to pull the trigger with top prospect Francisco Lindor nearing ready status.

Stephan Drew is still available and could be intriguing as a one year bridge to Lindor if Cabrera is indeed dealt.

As for the bullpen, Antonetti could sign a veteran arm, but he has several options on the roster to look at as well. The Tribe kept Blake Wood, who they signed last year after Tommy John surgery, and the former Royal was throwing in the high 90’s in his September call up. They also will have Frank Herrmann back too.

And they have youngsters like C.C. Lee, who got some big league time in 2013, and another hard thrower in Austin Adams, who had elbow surgery in 2012.

Just because the Indians didn’t spend money like crazy so far doesn’t mean they won’t improve this ballclub. Hopefully, Antonetti remembers 2007 when the Tribe made the post-season, and followed it up by doing nothing in the off-season.

What Should Tribe Do With Starters in ’14?

Baseball had a slight rebirth in Cleveland over the past two weeks.

Jason Giambi’s home run, which turned a defeat into a win on September 25th, awoke interest in a team fighting for a playoff spot, and for the next week, sports fans on the North Coast were wondering what was going on with the Indians.

The loss on Wednesday night that eliminated the Tribe has fans talking about next year, even in the midst of a Browns’ three game winning streak.

So, ownership, looking for a spark in fan interest the past few years, can’t blow it this off-season. They have to keep that interest alive over the winter and have people looking forward to spring training in late February/early March.

It should start with getting single game tickets on sale on Black Friday, the first huge shopping day of the Christmas season. We understand the push is to sell season tickets, not you have to give people the opportunity to get tickets while the 2013 season is fresh in their minds.

And, the front office needs to continue to improve the ballclub.

We understand (and we have said this before) that the Indians cannot have a $100 million payroll. They probably need to be around the mid $80 million range.

Still, that is possible. Heck, the Tribe did it this year, and teams like Tampa and Oakland do it on a more frequent basis that the Tribe has.

The biggest decision for GM Chris Antonetti is what to do about the pitching staff, with Ubaldo Jimenez and Scott Kazmir eligible to free agency. Jimenez and the Tribe have a mutual option at $8 million for next season, which the right-hander will certainly turndown.

We’ve gone back and forth on what Antonetti should do, and is both parties would agree to pick up the option that would be fine. However, in reality, Jimenez could draw three and four-year offers at more than $10 million per season. If that’s the case, the Indians need to look elsewhere.

There is just too much of a risk. Cleveland is not the type of franchise that can handle a long-term deal where the player is not producing at a high level.

The fact is this: Jimenez spent 14 months in an Indian uniform and had an ERA under 4.00 in less than half of those months (6). With the complexity of his mechanics, what if Ubaldo goes back to the type of pitcher he was for most of his career with the Tribe?

That’s too big of a risk for this franchise.

Now, if he wants to discuss a two-year deal, that is something that could be done without hampering the long-term future of the organization.

Remember, Justin Masterson is a free agent at the end of the ’14 campaign and he should be a higher priority than Jimenez.

Kazmir will be looking for a big payday too, as well he should since he was on the baseball scrapheap last year. Still, he should come at a lower cost and fewer years than Jimenez.

And since the Indians rescued him from the independent league, perhaps he will have some loyalty toward Francona and Mickey Calloway. Maybe a three-year deal at $6-7 million could get it done.

Remember, Danny Salazar should be in the rotation from day one in 2014, and the Tribe still has Corey Kluber and Zach McAllister as starters. If Trevor Bauer can get straightened out, he could be in the mix as well.

And you could get another low risk, high reward type signing on a one year deal for a pitcher trying to re-establish his career. Although Brett Myers didn’t help like he was supposed to, the signing was a good one. It was for one year, and when he didn’t work out, the Tribe just said goodbye.

It wouldn’t hurt to do that again with a different pitcher.

There is an old saying in baseball that you can’t have too much pitching. The Indians can’t get caught short, but they can’t put the future in jeopardy either.

What Needs to Happen for Tribe in Second Half

The Cleveland Indians have entered the all-star break a mere 1-1/2 games out of first place in the American League Central Division, a place we didn’t think they would be. After all, we picked the Tribe for 4th in the division after spring training.

Now, the question becomes, can they stay in the race for the rest of the season. Skipper Terry Francona said this is the fun time of the season, with every game meaning that much more for the Indians.

What needs to happen for the Tribe in order to stay close to the Tigers and compete for the division title?

First, they have to continue to get good performances from All-Star right-hander Justin Masterson (10-7, 3.72 ERA) who currently leads the AL in complete games and shutouts, and is among the league leaders in innings pitched, strikeouts, and wins.

They also need continued success from the staff’s biggest surprise, Corey Kluber, who is 7-5 with a 3.88 ERA, and Scott Kazmir, who in his last five starts has allowed just eight earned runs in 31 innings pitched (2.32 ERA).

They need Zack McAllister to get healthy and pitch like he did before his finger injury when he gave Francona six quality starts in his first eight times he took the hill.

They need another starting pitcher who can provide quality innings. It has created a major toll on the bullpen to have two starters every time through the rotation only going a little over five innings.

We believe this will assist in correcting the struggling bullpen. Some of those guys have had to carry too large of a load because the starters can’t go deep enough into games. Too many innings, and the injury to Chris Perez caused too much of a strain on the relief corps, and has led to the inconsistency of the ‘pen.

There are many who also feel that GM Chris Antonetti needs to add another bat as well, but really the Tribe needs a couple of guys with proven track records to start performing up to their capabilities: Nick Swisher and Asdrubal Cabrera.

Swisher, who has a lifetime OPS of 823, is currently sitting at 750, his lowest number since 2007 with the White Sox. He has battled shoulder issues since early in the season, but appears to be getting healthy now, batting .289 in July. In fact, it was only June that Swisher struggled, hitting .160 for the month.

He needs to get back to being the guy who hits 20+ home runs and drives in 80+ runs for the Tribe to stay in contention.

Cabrera, a two-time all-star, has struggled in the first half as well, and needs to get back to the guy who played for the Tribe in 2009 and 2011, when he was an extra base hit machine.

He’s never been a guy who walked a lot, but he’s currently hitting 21 points below his lifetime average of .276, and is off his pace in extra base hits too. He had 52 in ’09 and 60 in ’11, but only has 29 right now.

He would provide a spark if he got back to a .280 hitter with some pop.

If those guys can return to form and if Mark Reynolds can have another stretch at some point during the balance of the season like he did in April, the Tribe has enough hitting.

None of these things is out of the realm of possibility. However, the Tribe also can’t afford to have one of the guys who had good first halves, like Jason Kipnis or Carlos Santana to have dreadful second halves.

While everyone talks about the Tigers, and how talented they are, the Cleveland Indians are right there. They can remain there if some players just get to their normal level of production.

Tribe Hits Halfway Point in First

The calendar hit the month of July and the baseball season hit the halfway point just days apart.

And the Cleveland Indians are sitting in first place, a half game ahead of the Detroit Tigers in the AL Central.

It speaks to the balance of the American League, something we said would occur before the season started, that the Boston Red Sox have the league’s best record, but their mark is just five games ahead of the Tribe.

The Indians have the fifth best record in the AL, so please, no complaints about the weak Central Division. Terry Francona’s bunch have better records that the Rays, Blue Jays, Angels, and is just 2-1/2 behind the Orioles.

They have been streaky, without a doubt, and there may be another losing streak to come at some point, but the Indians are contenders as things stand today, and really, that’s all you can ask for.

Thanks to Friday night’s doubleheader sweep in which Cleveland scored 29 runs, they rank 4th in the AL in runs per game, scoring 4.83 runs per game. The numbers back up that ranking, as the Tribe ranks 4th in on base percentage, slugging percentage, and OPS.

Yes, the Indians do strike out, ranking 3rd in the league, but they are just behind Boston, who has the best record in the AL. But they also have more athleticism than last year, as they are tied for the lead in stolen bases with the Red Sox.

It seems that Francona’s old team is statistically the same as his new team.

On the pitching side, the Indians are a conundrum. They are 12th in the league in team ERA, but have 10 shutouts as a team, which leads the AL. They have the league leader in shutouts in Justin Masterson, who is pitching more like the 2011 version than 2012.

There is no doubt the biggest surprise in the rotation is Corey Kluber, who has gone from not making the team out of spring training to have six wins and a 4.16 ERA.

Scott Kazmir’s last two starts have been outstanding, allowing just one earned run in 14 innings. He does have a 4.83 ERA which means there have been a few outings where he has been rocked.

Zack McAllister was consistent before he hurt his finger, and Ubaldo Jimenez has been okay, but he has had issues completing six innings per start, which puts a lot of strain on the bullpen.

Speaking of the relief corps, they have been up and down as well, but now that Chris Perez and Vinnie Pestano are healthy, maybe this group can regain the form of the past couple of years. They certainly have the arms, with Joe Smith, Cody Allen, Bryan Shaw, and Matt Albers all capable of getting big outs.

The left-handers have been questionable, although Rich Hill has been better lately now that he finally regained his arm slot.

GM Chris Antonetti will have to improve the team at the end of the month when the trade deadline comes, and getting another solid southpaw for the ‘pen could be his most important move.

The other may just be getting another solid starter to provide depth, preferably someone who can soak up quality innings.

After all the complaining (including here) about the Indians’ organization the past few years, this team is right in the thick of it. It’s too bad the fan base haven’t noticed yet.

Tribe Organizational Depth in View Early

The baseball season is just 11 games old, and the depth the Cleveland Indians acquired in the off-season has already been put to the test.

First, the starting rotation had a horrible two turns through, with many pitchers not being able to go more than five innings. That took a toll on the bullpen, so Terry Francona and the front office were able to change on the fly and add an extra relief pitcher.

Of course, the two rainouts helped because they were able to skip a start for the fifth guy in the rotation.

Scott Kazmir made a rehab start with Columbus last night and he is on track to make his first start in Houston this weekend, so Francona got away without having to use somebody he didn’t want to use.

With the nagging elbow injury for 2B Jason Kipnis, the skipper has had to use Mike Aviles and Ryan Raburn, both established major league players, to fill in. This is different from having to use players like Aaron Cunningham, Austin Kearns, or Luis Valbuena as substitutes.

Aviles was the starting shortstop for Boston last season, and although the Sox wound up with virtually the same record as the Indians, both teams fell apart in the last two months, so it wasn’t like either team was like the Astros and Marlins of 2013.

Raburn is also experienced, having appeared in over 100 games three times with the Tigers and hitting double digits in home runs in three different seasons.

Tito has had to alter his catchers early this season too. Carlos Santana hurt his thumb/wrist during the home opener, and Lou Marson hurt his neck in a home plate collision, so Yan Gomes was called up from Columbus, and has done a good job handling the pitchers and also hit a home run on Saturday.

Now, CF Michael Bourn is going to miss perhaps of week’s worth of games with stitches in his finger. No problem. Francona will move Drew Stubbs to center, and he can play Raburn in right, or he can put Nick Swisher in right, use Mark Reynolds at first base and give Jason Giambi some at bats as the DH.

Giambi may be 42 years old, and won the American League MVP in 2000, but he has made his living in recent years by being a productive bat off the bench in Colorado.

Besides Gomes, the added depth also extends to the minor leagues. For example, with Bourn down and Kipnis out, the Tribe called up Cord Phelps, who had an excellent spring and has a very good history of hitting in the minors, to the 25-man roster.

They no longer have to use a player who has no business being in the big leagues.

At other times, they stayed longer with a struggling player because they didn’t have a better option available. This was the case with Johnny Damon last season.

And that bodes very well for the success of this ballclub. You have to have options because things never work out the way it is planned in the off-season. In the past few years, this organization had few alternatives.

This year, the depth they’ve accumulated is being put to the test before the first month of the season plays out.

Sorry, Starting Pitching Ifs Spell 4th Place for Tribe

There is no question the Cleveland Indians are an improved baseball team in 2013.

There is no question the front office and ownership breathed new life into what has been a stagnant franchise over the last three or four years.

There is also no question that the American League is filled with good to very good teams, and that it looks like only the Twins and Astros have no realistic chance to contend for a playoff spot in 2013.

That’s why it is difficult to make the next statement. The Cleveland Indians will finish fourth once again this season.

It won’t be the same kind of fourth place team as last season, one in which the Tribe lost over 90 games.

The Indians will stay in contention most of the season and should finish over the .500 mark. They may finish 4^th and still be within 10 games of first place at the end of the season.

But as the team stands right now, they don’t seem to be better than the Tigers, Royals, and White Sox.

Why?

Starting pitching.

The Indians simply don’t have enough to win based on the guys who are opening the season.

Justin Masterson has a good arm, but tends to lose his release point and when that happens, we struggles to get it back. He is prone to big innings because of that trait. If he can throw strikes he can be a quality pitcher.

Still, he’s had three years as a starter in the majors and in only one of them has his ERA been under 4.00.

Ubaldo Jimenez has looked much better this spring than he did last year, and he is throwing strikes. However, his ERA since coming to the Tribe is over 5.00 and he’s made over 40 starts with Cleveland.

Brett Myers is a workman like guy who provides solid innings and lots of them. He’s not an ace of the staff guy though.

Zack McAllister showed promise after being called up in the middle of last season, but he doesn’t have a full year of major league experience, so it is tough to depend on him.

Scott Kazmir was pitching in an independent league last season, and although he has a great comeback story, you wouldn’t want to bet your house on him giving Francona 25 quality starts this season.

Last year, the Indians staff ERA was 4.78 while the league average was 4.08. That means new pitching coach Mickey Calloway needs to shave more than a half run per game to be just average.

The pitchers would have to do even better to rank in the top half of the league in this category.

The two hopes are Carlos Carrasco and Trevor Bauer, who will be in Columbus’ rotation to start the year. Perhaps they can provide a boost should the rotation struggle.

Offensively, the Tribe lineup is much deeper replacing the Jack Hannahans and Casey Kotchmans of the world with players like Michael Bourn, Nick Swisher, and Lonnie Chisenhall.

They also have alternatives if something doesn’t work out. For example, if Drew Stubbs hits like he did last year (.213 with 610 OPS), Francona can move Swisher back to RF, put Mark Reynolds at 1B, and use Mike Aviles and Jason Giambi at DH.

Last year’s squad had little power and little speed, meaning they needed three hits in an inning to score. In the off-season, GM Chris Antonetti added two players who hit more than 20 HRs last year (Swisher and Reynolds), and two more who stole 30 bases or more (Bourn and Stubbs).

Add in the continued development of Jason Kipnis, Michael Brantley, and Chisenhall, and throw in the steady Asdrubal Cabrera, and this team should be able to put runs on the board.

However, it all comes down to stopping the other team from scoring and there are too many question marks in the rotation.

If Jimenez and Masterson can get their ERAs under 4.00, this team has a chance to make the post-season and possibly win the division.

This is a talented team and it will play exciting baseball. But right now, fourth place is where they will end up.

McAllister Looking Like Frontrunner So Far

By the end of last season, the Cleveland Indians best starting pitcher may very well have been rookie right-hander Zach McAllister.

He had the best ERA and WHIP of any starting pitcher who made over 10 starts for the Tribe last season (4.24 ERA and 1.36 WHIP). He was better than Justin Masterson and Ubaldo Jimenez, the two veterans who appear to have the top two spots in this year’s rotation.

Yet, right now he is in a battle with Scott Kazmir, Carlos Carrasco, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Trevor Bauer, and Corey Kluber for the fourth and fifth starting spots behind the two veterans and newcomer Brett Myers.

McAllister made his fourth appearance of the spring yesterday against the Cubs, throwing four shutout innings. He’s been very good in three of his four outings thus far, and looks like he is on his way to opening the season with the major league team.

He should have been a guy who had to pitch his way off the team in Arizona anyway.

The big righty (6’6″ 240 pounds), who was stolen from the Yankees in 2010 for the ashes that remained in Austin Kearns’ career, had only one poor statistic on his resume last year. He allowed 19 unearned runs in his 22 starts.

When his teammates didn’t support him defensively, he had a problem closing out the inning.

His hits to innings pitched ratio was pretty good (allowing 133 hits in 125-1/3 frames) and his strikeout to walk ratio (110/38) was excellent. He also pitched at least six innings in 14 of his 22 starts.

His solid work means the other five guys are probably looking at the one remaining spot to open the year in Cleveland. That’s a good problem to have for manager Terry Francona.

Kluber has struggled this spring and was probably a long shot to make the team coming into camp. Matsuzaka is on a minor league invite, and although his ERA (2.57) is good this spring, he has allowed a lot of hits and has pitched out of trouble in his appearances.

It would be a surprise if either come north with the team in April.

That leaves Kazmir, Carrasco, and Bauer for the last spot.

The front office would like to have Bauer start the season in Columbus to give him more AAA experience, since he’s only made 14 starts at that level. However, if the youngster currently ranked among the top 15 prospects in the game by Baseball America continues to pitch well, he could force his way to Cleveland.

That means it comes down to Carrasco, who is coming off of Tommy John surgery, and Kazmir, a southpaw who is trying to return from baseball’s scrapheap.

The former is facing a six game suspension for a hitting a Royals hitter in one of his last starts in 2011, and coupled with the return from a major arm operation, Francona and GM Chris Antonetti may opt to start the young righty at Columbus to get his bearings at the minor league level rather than facing big league hitters.

That means Kazmir has a leg up if he continues to pitch well. Reportedly, his velocity is in the low 90 mph range at this point, and the Tribe may want to see if they can cash in on their low risk gamble early in the season, knowing they have Carrasco and Bauer just two hours away in reserve.

The key is how both Carrasco and Kazmir pitch from here on out in Arizona.

Carrasco goes today. At this point in spring training, every performance by either guy is huge. Ultimately, those two will make the decision for Francona.

The ball is in their hands, literally.