Lack of Home Runs Killing Tribe Attack

In yesterday’s 12-3 loss to the Los Angeles Angels, four visiting batters (Kole Calhoun, David Freese, Albert Pujols, and Howie Kendrick) all hit home runs.

In the home dugout, Terry Francona had to be jealous.

Why?

Because that kind of power hasn’t been seen for the Indians in a month. In fact, no Tribe player besides Carlos Santana and Lonnie Chisenhall have went deep since Zach Walters’ two run shot in the 10th inning on August 26th at Chicago.

And former Oriole manager Earl Weaver would cringe at this statistic: No Indians’ player has hit a three run homer since Santana went deep off of former Tribe pitcher Ubaldo Jimenez on August 16th.

No wonder Francona’s team has trouble scoring runs.

Without power, offenses are dependent on scoring by getting multiple base hits in an inning or a mixture of walks and hits. That may work if you have a lot of hitters batting in the .270 range.

Once again, the Indians do not.

Among the regulars, only Michael Brantley, Chisenhall, and Yan Gomes have batting averages over .280. So, even if you get a couple of men on base, you are likely dependent on someone hitting around .250, meaning they get a hit one out of every four times up, to come up with a big hit.

The lack of offense puts a lot of pressure on a pitching staff.

Somehow, Cleveland remains in the top half of the American League in runs scored, currently ranking 7th in the junior circuit. This is despite the team scoring more than four runs just once since the calendar turned to September.

Someone has to step up and soon if the Indians are to stay relevant in the wild card race, and their presence in that situation is a day-to-day proposition to be sure. All it would take is consecutive losses to a team like the Indians are facing tonight, Minnesota, and any chance of making the playoffs will be doused.

And they need to have the ability to score without piecing together several hits and/or walks, and to score with one swing of the bat.

The Tribe has played eight games this month and have received no homers from Brantley (last one: August 16th vs. Baltimore), Gomes (last HR: August 18th), and Jason Kipnis (last HR: July 31st) in that period.

Note that these guys are usually hitting in the middle of the Cleveland batting order, anywhere from 3rd to 6th. And this isn’t to denigrate the years that Brantley and Gomes are having, as both are among the most productive hitters in the game at their position.

The point is that no one has stepped up and helped out, most notably Kipnis, who is suffering through a horrible season.

Walters filled the void for awhile, hitting six bombs, but recently has shown his true Russell Branyan tendencies by striking out at an incredible rate (28 times in 76 at bats).

Chisenhall has mixed in a couple of home runs, but Michael Bourn and Jose Ramirez aren’t known for power, and David Murphy is just coming off an oblique strain.

The other players getting playing time from Francona aren’t long ball threats either, guys like Tyler Holt and newly acquired J.B. Shuck.

This might be the most convincing argument to giving minor league slugger Jesus Aguilar an extended shot in the lineup. He’s a threat to hit one out.

There is no question the Cleveland Indians need to start scoring if they want to remain in the race. However, without the threat of the home run, it will be a very difficult task, indeed.

When Swish and Santana Get Back? Play ‘Em

The Cleveland Indians have won six in a row and have climbed back to the .500 mark for the season. Of course, since they are going on a 10 game trek and they have one of the worst road records in the game, that record may be short-lived.

But for the time being, things are looking good in Tribe Town, and naturally casual baseball fans are quick to infer that the team’s hot streak coincided with Carlos Santana and Nick Swisher going on the disabled list.

That leads, of course, to the conclusion that when both players are healthy, Terry Francona should keep them on the bench and leave the status quo.

Upon further review, that’s a dumb argument.

First, because Lonnie Chisenhall is hitting .361 and is currently tied for fifth on the team in RBIs and is hitting left-handers, he’s staying in the lineup everyday even when the two switch-hitters return to the active roster.

The two players who have gained time because of the injuries are Jason Giambi and Ryan Raburn who are sharing the DH spot, and Mike Aviles, who has been filling in at third base with Chisenhall playing 1B.

Neither Giambi nor Raburn have been particularly productive at DH, with Giambi just 5 for 35 on the season, albeit with 2 HR, and Raburn is still in a season long funk at .207 with just 1 HR.

While Santana is hitting only .159 on the season, he does have a .327 on base percentage, compared to Giambi (.250) and Raburn (.262). That means Santana is making outs 6-7% less times than do the men currently replacing them.

Giambi can be productive if his starts can be limited to once or twice per week. His production seems to ebb when he is playing every other day, which has been the case over the past week.

Raburn hasn’t been productive at all to this point in the season.

On the other hand, Aviles has been very productive in 2014, ranking third on the Indians in runs batted in right now, and he’s batting .274 on the year, although he doesn’t walk much, and doesn’t have much power. His OPS is just 673.

That’s only 42 points behind Swisher, who by most accounts is off to a terrible start, hitting just .211. Still, his on base percentage is at .311 meaning he also makes less outs than Aviles, who sits at .297.

Francona will find time periodically for the veteran who can play 2B, SS, 3B, and LF, and most of that time will come against southpaws because the Indians lack right-handed hitting.

While the Indians have been hitting well and winning with two regulars on the shelf, there is no question they would be much better off with a productive Santana and Swisher, and you can make a very good case that even with tough starts for the pair, they have been slightly better on offense than the players who have replaced them.

Now, no one is saying Francona should put either player back into the middle of the batting order, it wouldn’t hurt if he put them in the lower half of the order until they get going again, and for Santana, he could stop the experiment at the hot corner and use him at 1B when he’s not catching, with Chisenhall going back to third.

Don’t confuse the winning as meaning Carlos Santana and Nick Swisher aren’t important to the success of the Cleveland Indians. The Tribe has been winning with solid starting pitching, excellent relief by the overworked Bryan Shaw and Cody Allen, and some timely hitting from Michael Bourn.

Getting two switch-hitters with the track record of Santana and Swisher back will only help the Tribe attack.

Why Don’t Fans Respect Santana?

Last night, Twitter was filled with rumors of a deal involving the Indians and Los Angeles Angels with the Tribe sending Corey Kluber to the west coast in exchange for slugger Mark Trumbo.

While both teams have denied the rumor and quite frankly, it doesn’t make much sense for the Indians from this point of view: It is very likely Cleveland will be losing two starting pitchers (Ubaldo Jimenez and Scott Kazmir) to free agency, so it doesn’t make sense to trade another.

However, the debate then turned to a discussion of the merits of Trumbo, comparing him to current Indian C/1B/DH Carlos Santana.

It was surprising to find how little regard Tribe fans have for Santana, who is arguably (and statistically) the team’s second best offensive player behind Jason Kipnis.

The Angel’s slugger certainly has the traditional numbers, hitting 34 home runs and knocking in 100 runs last season with a .234 batting average.

However, if you look deeper into the numbers, it is very clear that Santana is a better offensive player.

Why? For one, he makes less outs with an on base percentage of .377 compared to Trumbo’s .294 figure. While some people pooh-pooh walks, they aren’t outs, so the offense moves on to the next player.

And while Trumbo belted 34 dingers compared to Santana’s 20 circuit clouts, the Tribe’s switch hitter had virtually the same slugging percentage (.455 vs. Trumbo’s .453).

However, Santana had nine more doubles in less official at bats because of the walks he takes.

So, in the two major categories that measure hitting effectiveness, the ability to get on base and the ability to move runners (slugging), Santana is superior.

And these aren’t subjective statistics either. They are measurable.

Both players are the same age (both will turn 28 in the first half of 2014), so there isn’t an advantage on the upside of either player.

You could assume that Santana may be more productive since he will likely be catching less next season as Terry Francona has publicly stated that Yan Gomes will be the starting catcher heading into training camp.

There aren’t many people who disagree that squatting behind the dish and taking foul tips off your body don’t help your offensive numbers.

Another statistic against Trumbo is his strikeout rate, which continues to go up. In his rookie year of 2011, the right-handed hitter fanned 120 times.

That number increased to 153 times in ’12 and last year, he whiffed 184 times. That’s Mark Reynolds territory.Still, what is surprising to us is how little Tribe fans regard Santana.

Is he a gold glove catcher? No, but he’s not the worst defensive backstop in the American League either.

He’s not a guy who belts 30 homers, nor does he knock in a boatload of runs.

And he’s not the pure hitter that his idol, former Indians Victor Martinez is either.

However, he is a very good offensive player. The average American League player has an OPS of 725. Santana’s is 832.

We have always said a player who has an on-base percentage of .350 and a slugging percentage of .450 is a very good offensive player. Santana gets a check in both of those areas.

Carlos Santana will probably never win a league MVP, and he may never make an All-Star team. However, he is a very valuable commodity.

It’s a shame some baseball fans in Cleveland don’t realize it.