All season long, we have worried about the starting pitching of the Cleveland Guardians. Is the rotation good enough? Is it providing enough innings to protect the bullpen? Will they be able to overcome the injury to Shane Bieber and the ineffectiveness of Logan Allen and Triston McKenzie?
At this point, the rotation is what it is, a group of pitchers who hopefully can give the team an effective six innings of work and turn it over to a dominant bullpen.
Since the All-Star break, the Guardians have turned into team streak, winning five in a row, losing seven straight, followed by another five-game winning streak, and now a three-game losing skein.
Unless Matthew Boyd and Alex Cobb start pitching like Sam McDowell and Corey Kluber, this is how the Guardians’ starting pitching will be going forward. And now, Cobb is going to miss time with a broken fingernail.
However, the offense is sputtering. In April, the Guardians were a surprise with the bats, averaging 5.24 runs per game. They were still going strong in May, scoring 5.04 runs. In June, that figure dropped to 4.56 and in July, it dipped further to 3.36.
This month, that figure has improved slightly to 4.23 runs per contest, but overall, since the All-Star break, they have scored 3.76 runs/game. The team batting average is .222 (compared to .243 prior) the on base percentage is .279 (.316 before), and the slugging percentage has dropped from .405 to .368.
The hitting has become too reliant on the home run, mostly because the batting average is subpar, and no one seems to be drawing walks either. Pitchers seemed to have learned the best way to attack the Cleveland lineup is to throw a lot of changeups, and there hasn’t seemed to be adjustments.
It seems you can count the number of hits going to the opposite field on one hand over the last week. For us, it seems like it is just at bat after at bat trying to pull pitches on the outside half on the plate, resulting in weak grounders to second base and/or shortstop.
Individually, the numbers are equally ugly. The only two players who have OPS over 750 are Jose Ramirez and Jhonkensy Noel, and the latter is still striking out in roughly one-third of his at bats.
Only Josh Naylor has an OPS above 700 at 746. Every other single Guardians’ player is below 700, and the league average is 704.
Coincidentally, that trio are also the only Cleveland players with on base percentages over .300. Cleveland ranks in the bottom five in batting average, walks, and OPS since the break, and is 22nd out of 30 teams in runs scored.
They’ve been shut out four times in that span.
Simply put, you have to score runs in the regular season, and the Guardians have scored two or fewer runs in 11 of the 29 games played since the All-Star Game. Amazingly, they’ve won three of those contests.
They put up three runs in an additional five games, meaning in over half the games played after the break, they have put up three runs or less. And again, that’s a tough way to win baseball games.
Earlier, when they were scoring more runs, the team seemed to work counts and draw more walks. This is reflected in the monthly OBP as a team, which are as follows in chronological order: .321, .312, .322, .285, .286.
Perhaps playing guys who will take a walk would help. We’ve already advocated to bring back Angel Martinez, whose .306 OBP (12 walks) would rank 5th on the team if he were called back up.
This is not a team that can sit back and wait for the home run. They have to get guys on base and move them. That’s been lacking for the past six weeks or so, and if they can’t start scoring runs, it will be tough to hold off Minnesota and Kansas City.