Can Guards Upgrade The Offense More?

The Cleveland Guardians finished 12th in the American League in runs scored a year ago, and so far this season have improved that department greatly.

Over a quarter of the 2024 season has been played, and right now, the Guards are second in the AL in runs.

A year ago, they ranked 12th team OPS, 10th in on base percentage and 14th (second to last) in slugging percentage. To date in ’24, they are 5th in OPS, 6th in on base average, and 7th in slugging percentage.

They famously hit the fewest home runs in the league a year ago, and currently are 6th in the AL.

Everything is much improved.

Could it be improved even more? We hope the improvement doesn’t cause president Chris Antonetti and GM Mike Chernoff to think the offense couldn’t get better, because with the Guardians’ pitching staff, which ranks 4th in the league in ERA, and particularly the bullpen, which has been dominant, it could raise Steven Vogt’s team even more.

And it is pretty clear where Cleveland can get more production is in the outfield, where two of the most struggling players play.

They made maybe the first move yesterday calling up Johnathan Rodriguez from Columbus and designating Ramon Laureano for assignment.

Rodriguez was hitting well at AAA with an 838 OPS (.276 batting average) with a 25.4% K rate at Columbus, hitting 7 homers and drawing 29 walks. He’s a right-handed hitter.

Rodriguez could be a possible upgrade to the outfield offense.

We say possible because as hot as Kyle Manzardo was in the minors this season, he has gone just 5 for 31 with the big club since his promotion with 10 strikeouts in 33 plate appearances. (NOTE: He struck out in his first five big league at bats).

Laureano really struggled to contribute. He was signed in the off-season because he had a decent track record hitting lefties but had a 518 OPS (.177 batting average with one home run).

And over the last month, he is just 2 for 25 with 15 strikeouts in 27 plate appearances. He is a good outfielder with a great arm and the ability to play CF, but it was getting difficult for the organization to find him at bats.

The other outfielder having a tough go is Estevan Florial.

Florial has contributed some huge hits this season, a pinch-hit homer against the Yankees and a three-run blast to tie up a game in Houston, but other than those moments, he has struggled mightily.

He has fanned in 40 of his 103 plate appearances, a whopping 38.8% rate. He has a 596 OPS vs. right-handers (to his credit, he is 4 for 11 vs. southpaws), and over the last month, he is batting just .153 with 26 whiffs in 64 times at the dish (40.6%).

The best left-handed bat in the state capital is Daniel Schneemann, an infielder who has started getting playing time in LF and RF. Should we read into that?

He has come out of nowhere the last two seasons (he batted .205 at Akron in 2022) and this season is hitting .310 with a 1041 OPS. He’s belted 8 round trippers and has walked a team high 35 times.

Schneemann also provides more versatility because he can play both infield and outfield.

Is the organization thinking they can improve the offense more? We know they are always looking for ways to improve the ballclub. The first move has been made, is another one to follow?

Some Struggles Among The Guardians’ Fast Start

There is no question the Cleveland Guardians have been one of the more surprising teams in Major League Baseball, jumping out to a 23-13 record and first place in the so far surprisingly strong AL Central.

The much-maligned division currently has four teams over the .500 mark.

That said, there have been some disappointing starts for a few of the Guardians’ players thus far. It’s still early and we don’t mean to dwell on the negative when the team is playing so well, but here are players we would like to see get going.

Bo Naylor had a strong second half last year, hitting .252 with 10 home runs and an 893 OPS, but has struggled at the plate and defensively so far in 2024. The left-handed hitter has just a 558 OPS and leads the team in strikeouts with 38 in 103 plate appearances.

His whiff rate is at 37% right now, compared to 23% last season and while he is among the team leaders in taking walks, his walk rate has dropped from last season.

Defensively, he already has four passed balls (he had 5 last season) and there have been several others where the pitcher was charged with a wild pitch, and the Guardians are tied for the AL high in that category, and we felt Naylor could have done a better job blocking it.

Remember, the Guardians as an organization value defense first behind the plate.

We aren’t saying Naylor should be in danger of losing his job, but we better contact and better defense should be the goal going forward.

Ramon Laureano was resigned in the off-season because he could can play CF and RF and because of his success against southpaws, a career 777 OPS against lefties. However, let’s not forget he was designated for assignment by the lowly A’s, where he hit .213 with a 645 OPS.

To date, he is 5 for 30 vs. left-handed pitching with 13 strikeouts and no walks in 32 plate appearances. Overall, he is hitting .150 with 27 whiffs, 7 walks, and a single home run. Could Johnathan Rodriguez, hitting .280 with an 867 OPS, be poised to take his at bats?

We are sure the organization doesn’t want to bring up Rodriguez and platoon him, and that might be the thing saving Laureano right now.

We knew one of the three rookie starting pitchers the Guardians had last season would have struggles, and Logan Allen is the one having the most troubles. Gavin Williams is still sidelined and while Tanner Bibee hasn’t been dominant, he does have a 4.46 ERA.

Allen had a solid second start of the season, going 6.2 shutout innings against Seattle, but other than that start, he’s pitched to a 7.71 ERA in 32.2 frames. He has a solid strikeout to walk ratio (33K:14 BB) but has allowing 47 hits, including nine home runs.

And to be fair, Allen didn’t pitch poorly in Houston, where bad defense did him in.

The problem is the lack of alternatives right now until Williams returns. Xzavion Curry gave Cleveland a solid start in his lone appearance for the big club, but currently has a 6.86 ERA at Columbus.

And add in the uncertainty (at least in our mind) every time Carlos Carrasco starts, and it’s clear the Guardians need Allen to get back to the guy who had a 3.81 ERA and gave up a hit an inning a year ago.

The Guardians are rapidly approaching the quarter pole of the season, but they need to see progress from this trio going forward.

Maybe Being Slightly Better At Some Spots Will Work For Guards

We have been critical of the inactivity this winter by the Cleveland Guardians. The Guards fell from a division winner in 2022 to last year’s 76-86 record, and really haven’t made any moves to get better.

However, we remembered that when the team gets to the trade deadline, we always remind people that it’s not always a blockbuster move that is needed, sometimes an incremental move works just fine.

So, in that spirit we have cut the front office a bit of slack. We still think going after one or two veterans to have around as a backup plan would have been a smarter play, and of course, we will remind folks of that if what they are doing doesn’t work out.

And that’s not a second guess.

New manager Steven Vogt has talked a few times about newcomer Estevan Florial taking over in centerfield and we have pointed out Florial’s struggles in making contact and his fall from ranking as a top 100 prospect.

Then we remembered he would be replacing Myles Straw at the spot. Last year, Straw was the third worst hitter in the American League with his 597 OPS. The only players who were worse were Javier Baez and Tim Anderson.

If Florial can have a 650 OPS this season (league average is 728), the Guardians’ offense will be better than last year. Heck, overall, Cleveland centerfielders had a 626 OPS, the worst on the team.

The second worst spot was rightfield, where the players manning the spot combined for a 629 OPS. The favorites to play there in 2024 are Will Brennan and Ramon Laureano in a platoon role.

Brennan had a 695 OPS vs. right-handed pitching in ’23, while Laureano had a 794 OPS against southpaws. And remember, the latter didn’t join the team until August last season.

If they repeat those numbers, the offensive production out of that position will be improved.

And the third worst spot should be better because it is the catching position and Bo Naylor should get the bulk of the playing time there. Barring the dreaded sophomore slump, that is.

Naylor put up an 809 OPS, belting 11 home runs in the 67 games he played last season. And he’s patient at the plate, drawing 30 walks. That’s nothing new, he had a .348 on base percentage in his minor league career.

We have no question that he can boost the production from that position, after all, the Guards unbelievably gave 149 at bats to Cam Gallagher last season, who put up a woeful 322 OPS.

Baseballprospectus.com listed Steven Kwan and Andres Gimenez as the most likely players to have improved numbers at the plate this season. And we agree they will probably be better in 2024.

With the Central Division being what it is, perhaps those things, coupled with the usual solid pitching, can vault the Guardians back to the top of the division standings.

We still would rather have invested some money (we know, we know) into getting a decent hitter or two to improve the roster instead of trying to project how a 20-year-old who has never played higher than AA can make an impact. The front office is back to their Dusty Springfield approach.

For younger people, she was a singer who had a big hit called “Wishin’ and Hopin'”.

Maybe we just have a case of Spring Training Fever. After all, exhibition play started yesterday.

Can Guardians Manage Their Glut At Certain Spots?

The Cleveland Guardians have had problems making decisions on players, particularly their prospects. For example, before the 2022 season, Cleveland had four shortstops listed in their top 10 prospects: Tyler Freeman (#2), Brayan Rocchio (#4), Gabriel Arias (#5), and Angel Martinez (#10).

Two years later, what do we know about these four young players? The one with the most at-bats is Arias, who has 362 in his career. Martinez is still considered a prospect, ranking #6 in the 2024 rankings, but now is considered a second baseman.

We understand the philosophy of drafting shortstops. They are generally the best athletes on the field, and therefore you can move them to other positions. For example, Mickey Mantle was signed as a shortstop. Current Guardian broadcaster Rick Manning was drafted #2 overall as one.

Both eventually became outfielders.

On the other hand, in today’s baseball, top prospects are like currency, that is to say, they can lose value over time. Freeman as we noted was the club’s #2 prospect just two years ago. We doubt he would bring back much in a trade right now.

He’s become stale. He’s not putting up gaudy numbers in the minors, he spent all of 2023 in Cleveland, getting just 168 plate appearances.

By the way, we have said many times over the past couple of years is we believe ultimately, Rocchio will wind up being the everyday shortstop and his play this winter season (.377 batting average, 998 OPS) hopefully caught the eye of the decision makers in the front office.

Now, it looks like the same thing is happening in the outfield, where the team is collecting CF and RFs. New manager Steven Vogt has hinted the Guards would like to take a good luck at former Yankee prospect Estevan Florial, but where?

Myles Straw, who was arguably the worst offensive player in the game last season, is still on the roster, and they resigned Ramon Laureano, who had a 724 OPS with Cleveland after being claimed on waivers in August.

And they still have Will Brennan, as well as rookies Johnathan Rodriguez and seemingly perpetual prospect George Valera on the 40-man roster.

Also, their #5 prospect, Juan Brito is listed as a second baseman, but doesn’t profile well there defensively, and last season, we suggested a shift to the outfield.

Freeman has also been working in the outfield this winter, in an effort to get more at bats with the big club in 2024.

Remember the football adage if you have two quarterbacks, then you don’t really have one? The same is true for the Guardians. If you have four shortstops, do you really have one? If you have five CF/RF, do you have those positions covered?

Once again, it seems like the organization doesn’t want to make a mistake, so in their cautiousness, they also don’t make a decision. A sort of “paralysis by analysis” thing.

Frankly, any decision they make should be based on hitting first. That’s the area of need for the 2024 Guardians. Their offense bordered on woeful a year ago.

We say all the time, if you can’t hit, you can’t play. Over the past few years, there seems to be an overemphasis on the glove. We aren’t saying put a bunch of terrible defenders on the field, but you also don’t need a Gold Glove at every spot.

Hopefully, decisions will finally be made early this year, meaning spring training or early in the regular season. And even better, it would be nice if whatever is decided is the right move.

Offense Has To Improve For Guards In ’24

The Cleveland Guardians used the end of August to add to their pitching staff, but didn’t do anything to improve their hitting.

They should get Josh Naylor back any day now (perhaps today!) and without question Kole Calhoun and Ramon Laureano have added something to the ability to score runs.

Calhoun has had a number of big hits, including a big double in last Sunday’s win over Toronto and the huge three run homer in the series finale in Minnesota.

The grizzled veteran has 16 RBIs in the 21 games he has been in a Cleveland uniform. By contrast, Oscar Gonzalez has played in 51 games this season, driving in 11. And Laureano had a nice series up north, hitting a pair of long balls.

He has a 688 OPS in the 20 contests he has played here, comparing that to Will Brennan (648) or Myles Straw (604).

This is exactly what we meant when we said the front office should have added some talent at the end of July, even if it meant the team only got better incrementally. It doesn’t always have to be a big splash.

Heading to 2024, the offense needs to get better, a lot better. Bill James says a hitter who has a .350 on base percentage and a .450 slugging percentage is a very good offensive player, demonstrating the ability to get on base and drive the ball.

Right now, Cleveland has one of these players, and of course it is Jose Ramirez, who has a .351 OBP and a .481 slugging average. Josh Naylor is close, getting on base at a .346 clip and slugging at .500.

No other Guardian with 100 at bats can claim to be over those thresholds individually, let alone together. The next best player at getting on base is Steven Kwan at .337, and the next best slugger is Bo Naylor at .430.

By contrast, the Texas Rangers, who lead the AL in runs scored have just two hitters (Corey Seager and Mitch Garver) who are over both the .350/.450 guideline. But they have four players who get on base over 35% of the time and Marcus Semien is sitting at .346.

FYI, they are very close to having four of these guys, because along with Semien, Nathaniel Lowe is slashing 374/447/821.

They also have six players who are slugging over .450.

Houston is third in runs scored, and they have five hitters who get on base at a 35% clip and five hitters who slug .450.

Tampa is second in the league in runs scored, and they have three players with an on base percentage over .350 and they have six players who have a slugging average over .450.

So, the challenge for the Guardians’ front office is to find more players who can get on base, we would say at least two of them, and find two or three players who can drive the ball.

Bo Naylor might fill one of those roles.

Of the teams that strike out the least in the AL, the Guardians have by far the least amount of homers with 103. The next lowest total of teams in the top five in contact? The Baltimore Orioles with 156!

Of that top five, Cleveland has also drawn the least amount of walks with 382. Boston is the next lowest at 413.

Making contact while hitting home runs can be done, the Guardians either have to find them or develop them. But having players who make contact, but don’t get on base and don’t get a lot of home runs doesn’t work.

It’s a big challenge for the Guardians’ front office this winter.