Analyzing The Tribe’s Veteran Signings

During the hot stove season, the Cleveland Indians decided to try to improve their team by signing some veterans to one year contracts.

Over the years, we have not been thrilled by this strategy for several reasons, mostly that it shows the organization doesn’t trust their young players.

And we also feel that part of the reason for the sluggish starts by the club over the past few seasons is they spend the first 40 games seeing if these veterans have anything in the tank, and a lot of times, bringing up the young players gives the Tribe a spark.

This season doesn’t seem to be any different.

While Mike Napoli has been productive despite striking out a lot, he has a .504 slugging percentage and leads the team in home runs and RBIs, the other vets are struggling.

Rajai Davis, 35-years-old, has an on base percentage of .265 and an OPS of 620. You would have to think a player like Tyler Naquin could do at least that well.

We realize Naquin’s numbers may not hold up with more at bats, but our biggest concern with the rookie offensively was that he wasn’t drawing walks. Guess what? Neither does Davis, who has walked just five times on the year.

Making the Davis issue worse is Terry Francona continues to hit him in the leadoff spot, despite a career .315 on base average.

Juan Uribe (age 37) was brought in because the management didn’t feel comfortable using Giovanny Urshela at 3B to start the season.

However, Uribe thus far has demonstrated no pop in his bat, with a slugging percentage of .306 and an OPS of 619. Uribe started the year playing pretty much everyday at the hot corner, but is starting to lose playing time to Jose Ramirez at that position.

For the record, Urshela had a 608 OPS last season while battling injuries, and figured to improve with experience.

Thirty eight year old Marlon Byrd is the other veteran signed by the Indians, he inked his deal during spring training. Byrd has been decent, with a 684 OPS and hasn’t been the hammer vs. left handed pitching he was purported to be.

We wouldn’t have a problem seeing him a couple of days per week as long as he is still contributing. He seems to get one big hit per week.

We understand that the season is just 31 games old, and we recognize this constitutes a small sample size.

We also know the American League playoff race will probably be very close all year long and one game here or there could make a big difference.

The Cleveland Indians feel they are a contending team, which is probably the reason they made the moves to sign these players, but being a contender also means there is a short leash for players who aren’t getting it done.

With Michael Brantley’s availability up in the air right now, Terry Francona can’t use his considerable patience hoping that Davis and Uribe will get it together soon. If they aren’t hitting, the lineup is full of holes.

Our fear when the Tribe signs this type of player is what will happen if they aren’t swinging the bat well. Tito gives veterans the benefit of the doubt, so his inclination is to keep giving them at bats with the hope they will snap out of their slumps.

He can’t wait much longer.

And as for a possible release of either player, remember they are on one year deals, so there is no long term investment in Davis or Uribe.

It will be interesting to keep an eye on both players through the end of May to see what the front office may do.

The bigger question here is why not give the young players the first shot at the job, and bring the veterans in if they don’t work out?

The Case For Naquin

When Abraham Almonte was suspended for using a performance enhancing drug at the beginning of spring training, it created a void in the middle of the outfield for the Cleveland Indians.

Not that Almonte is Willie Mays or Ken Griffey Jr. in their primes, but he did enter the off-season with a leg up on the starting job after hitting .264 with a 776 OPS in August and September of last season.

He also played solid defensively.

The front office didn’t really bring in a great deal of competition either. Sure, they signed Rajai Davis as a free agent, presumably to be a platoon partner for Almonte, who is much better from the left side of the plate, but they filled the spring training roster with a much of back up types for the outfield.

Of course, part of the reticence to bring in a veteran is the impending arrival in 2017/2018 of Bradley Zimmer and Clint Frazier, both of whom have played CF in the minor leagues.

So, who gets the bulk of the time in center when the 2016 season opens?

Many speculate Davis, but at 34 years old, can he handle the job on an everyday basis or defensively?

Jose Ramirez has seen some time there in the exhibition games, but he will have to play some 3B too, spelling another player with some age, Juan Uribe.

Although we believe Ramirez can certainly be an everyday player in the major leagues, it seems the Tribe brass likes him more as a guy who can fill in all over the diamond.

That’s where Tyler Naquin comes in.

Cleveland’s former first round pick in the 2012 draft, the left-handed swinging Naquin has enjoyed a very good spring, and should be given the first shot at the position when the regular season opens at Progressive Field on April 4th.

Yes, we know that he has played only 50 games at the AAA level, hitting .263 with Columbus last season, but he did have a .353 on base percentage, and a 784 OPS.

That followed a stint at Akron where he hit .348 in 34 games (887 OPS), improving on his numbers at the AA level in 2014, when he hit .313 (795 OPS).

Although the AAA experience isn’t great because Naquin has had problems staying healthy, you have to remember he also played in the Arizona Fall League in 2013, where he broke out, batting .339 with a .400 on base percentage.

The AFL attracts a lot of top prospects, and Naquin acquitted himself very well against that high level of competition.

However, there are two reasons Naquin should be the CF come Opening Day unless he falls flat on his face the rest of this month.

First, he’s going to be 25 during the first month of the season. There’s no reason to protect his service time because by the time he can be a free agent, he will be 31 years old, and supposedly on the downside of his career.

Second, he has the most upside. The other contenders for the job, guys like Collin Cowgill, Shane Robinson, and Will Venable are proven players, and all would fall in the average to below average categories.

Why not put the kid out there and see if he can do the job? At the very worst, he won’t be much below the three players we just mentioned.

The Indians should bet on the success of a player they developed. Coupled with his defensive ability, he’s the best choice for Terry Francona to open the season with.

Should Tribe Trust These Guys?

Outside of Opening Day, the next best day for starved baseball fans is coming this week when pitchers and catchers report to spring training.

By the way, if you happen to be going to Goodyear, Arizona, the forecast for this week is in the 80’s, a drastic departure from what we have experience in Cleveland this week.

The Indians are definitely a contender for a playoff spot in the balance American League, where pretty much everyone, save for perhaps Oakland, could be in the post-season.

It has been well stated that we wish the Tribe front office had done more to improve the ballclub this winter, particularly since they have one of the premier starting rotations in baseball, but even still if the hitting can generate enough runs, Terry Francona’s team should be in the mix heading into September.

However, there are some players we think the Indians may be putting too much faith in heading into spring training. Here they are, and our reasons for saying this.

Rajai Davis. One reason is that Davis is 35 years old and his game is built on speed. But the OF’s OPS languished under 700 from 2010-13 while playing for Oakland and Toronto.

The resurgence in the last two years comes from great numbers in Comerica Park where the speedster had a 785 OPS in 2014, and then shot up to 823 last season.

Can Davis put up respectable numbers without playing half his games in the Motor City? That’s something to keep an eye on in the early part of the season.

Carlos Santana. Fans around town are split on the switch-hitter, but can the Tribe brass count on him for a rebound season that the offense desperately needs?

The former catcher will turn 30 a couple of days after the season opens, and his production has declined each of the last two seasons, dropping 40 points in OPS in both seasons. Most of that drop comes from his slugging percentage, which was that of a middle infielder last season.

He will get a lot of at bats at DH in 2016, and if the power numbers don’t return to 2013 levels, Francona will be searching for a replacement very quickly.

Abraham Almonte. The Indians are putting a lot of faith into their play in August and September a year ago, and the switch-hitting centerfielder was a significant part of that success.

After two dismal seasons in San Diego, Almonte put up a 321/455/776 line in less than 200 at bats with Cleveland. That’s way above any kind of numbers he put up in the major leagues before that.

But he’s the primary guy in center coming into the season. That should make everyone who follows the Indians very nervous.

Jeff Manship. We have seen him mentioned by some as a major piece in the Cleveland bullpen and frankly, we aren’t buying it.

GM Mike Chernoff is still searching for relief help, which is why he signed Tommy Hunter on Friday, and also traded for Dan Otero and inked Craig Stammen to a minor league deal.

In Francona’s world, you can never have enough relief pitchers.

Manship was incredible a year ago, with an 0.92 ERA in 39 innings of work.

But do not forget for a minute, that the right hander never had an ERA under 5.00 in any shot in the bigs before last season.

Perhaps he found something to make him a reliable major league reliever, but more likely, he will regress to the mean, and that means he could be in Columbus to open the season.

There are other question marks, like Lonnie Chisenhall in RF, and is MLB Network’s Mike Lowell correct about Mike Napoli finding his bat speed in Texas last season.

While the AL doesn’t have a lot of mediocre squads, filling some of these maybe with positive would make us feel better about the ’16 Cleveland Indians.

However, if the players we mention come through? It will be a fun summer at Progressive Field.

This Year’s Tribe Trial? Old Vets On 1 Year Deals

It seems that every off-season, the Cleveland Indians’ front office looks at their club and decides to conduct a science experiment.

The science involved is sabermetrics, and they seem to be always trying a different “theory” in terms of making the team successful for the upcoming season.

While they have put together three straight winning seasons (last year is kind of up for debate because they played only 161 games and finished one over .500), their victory total has declined since Terry Francona took the Indians to 92 wins in 2013 and a berth in the wild card game.

Over the years, GM Chris Antonetti took a look throughout baseball and saw the majority of pitchers were right-handed, and decided to make his team left-handed hitting dominant.

While the Indians were successful vs. righties, the problem became situational southpaws came out of the opponent’s bullpens and other teams decided to adjust rotations to throw lefties against Cleveland, with great success.

After the Tribe was burned by the signings of Nick Swisher and Michael Bourn, two players in their early 30’s when inked, the Indians’ front office seems to be staying away from the long term deals to free agents.

Actually, this theory has merit. Don’t you think the Angels would love to get out of the Albert Pujols deal right now? And we know Boston would love for some team to take Hanley Ramirez and/or Pablo Sandoval off of their hands.

If you sign a player over 30 to a long term deal, you are paying top dollar for a player’s declining years. After a year or two of doing that, teams get tired of it.

The best free agents to sign are guys who hit that position in their mid-to-late 20’s, let’s say from age 27-29. That way you still get some prime years at big cash.

The problem is the players and agents are now looking for agreements which last six or seven years. This means it is inevitable that you will be paying big money to a player when he is no longer producing at an optimum level.

We totally understand why the Indians, and their payroll constraints, either self imposed or market imposed, stay away from the free agent process.

This year’s plan du jour is to improve the offense, which was a major trouble spot in 2015, with a series of veteran free agents, giving them non-threatening one year contracts.

1B Mike Napoli will play all of the 2016 season at 34 years old. The problem with him is his OPS has declined each of the last three seasons (842, 789, 734). Cleveland hopes his second half resurgence with Texas is the player they will get this season.

Rajai Davis is 35 years old, and although his OPS rose since he started playing in Detroit, he is a platoon player with an OPS vs. lefties at 798, but only a 654 figure against right-handers.

And there are rumors the Indians are talking seriously to another veteran, 3B Juan Uribe, who will turn 37 in March. Uribe is a good clubhouse influence and was well respected with the Dodgers and Mets last season.

He is starting to slow down a bit, with his OPS dropping 40 points last season.

If signed, his presence will allow the Tribe to start Giovanny Urshela at AAA to begin the season.

Signing these guys is a gamble, because if they don’t produce because age is catching up to them, then the Indians are in the same boat they were in last season. Actually, a little worse because Michael Brantley will likely miss the first two months of the season.

The Indians could have just went out and acquired a solid middle of the order bat, and they still might, although it isn’t likely.

They chose this latest experiment.

That can’t make the fan base all warm and fuzzy.

Tribe’s Signing OK, Still Need More

The Cleveland Indians finally entered the real hot stove league yesterday with the signings of free agents Mike Napoli and Rajai Davis to one year contracts.

First, there is no such thing as a bad one year deal, because even if the player is outright terrible, the Tribe will be out of it after the 2016 season.

We like the Napoli signing better, because he’s been more productive throughout his major league career (lifetime 837), and although he had a bad first half in 2015, he rebounded to post a 908 OPS after being dealt to Texas.

And he’s a solid defensive first baseman, much better than Carlos Santana.

Yes, he does strike out a lot, but he also has a career on base percentage of .355, meaning he also can take a walk.

We have problems with high strikeout, low walk players, such as Zack Walters.

Jim Thome and Travis Hafner fanned a lot, but they also draw tons of walks.

Davis is a good depth player, and can hit lefties, but he’s an aging speed guy whose increase in OPS over the past couple years seems to have come from playing half the time in spacious Comerica Park.

His road OPS in each of the last two seasons is below 700, meaning he wasn’t a good offensive player on the road.

And he is not a good on base percentage player either.

The Tribe will probably use him in a platoon role, and maybe he can help there, but our guess he will have to be used sparingly to be effective.

While both signings are fine on their own, the Indians still need a middle of the lineup presence to be a good offensive team.

Right now, the Tribe has a lot of guys who should be hitting in the #2 and #6-#9 spots in the order, but someone will have to hit leadoff and someone has to bat fourth.

Mike Hargrove said it well when he was the manager here. If you have a leadoff man and a cleanup hitter, the rest of the batting order takes care of itself.

Right now, the Indians have neither, meaning Terry Francona will have to put someone ill fit for those spots in there.

Really, Jason Kipnis should be hitting either #2, #3, or #5 or #6, but he is forced to be used at the top of the order.

Only Michael Brantley hits where he is best suited among the top five batters. He is the best hitter and bats third.

Guys like Carlos Santana and Napoli should hit sixth or seventh in a good batting order.

And putting them in a spot for which they aren’t suited makes them a failure in fans eyes.

That’s why you probably have to move a starting pitcher to get that kind of middle of the order bat.

Although we would prefer to not move Bradley Zimmer and Clint Frazier in one of these deals, we wouldn’t hesitate to use any other prospect for the right player.

For example, we like Mike Clevenger’s potential. However, the reality is he has not thrown one pitch in a major league game. He might be a very good starter someday, but then again, he might not be.

One thing we do know is the Indians have a very good starting rotation and some depth in that area. So, you have to take advantage of that and sooner than later.

And just because other teams went for it last year and failed (San Diego, the White Sox), doesn’t mean the Tribe shouldn’t either.

The Royals won the World Series and signed Kendrys Morales in the winter and traded for Johnny Cueto and Ben Zobrist at the deadline.

It is doubtful they’d have won without those players.

Yesterday’s signings help the 2016 Indians, but the front office shouldn’t think this team is ready for Opening Day.

There is plenty of work to do.