When people talk about Major League Baseball teams that compete on small budgets, the most common names that are brought up are the Tampa Bay Rays and the Oakland A’s. Obviously, the Cleveland Indians want to join that club by slashing their payroll over the past three seasons.

In 2020, two of the teams that ranked in the bottom five in payroll made the playoffs. The AL Champion Rays were one, and the Miami Marlins were the other. The other three were all under the .500 mark, led? by the Pirates, who had the worst record in the sport at 19-41.

The others were the Orioles and Royals.

The last season in which 162 games were played, which is a better comparison because more teams made the post-season in ’20 due to the shortened season. Only the Rays, among the five lowest payrolls in the sport, made the playoffs. The other four teams, Toronto, Pittsburgh, Miami, and the Chicago White Sox were a combined 117 games under the break even mark.

We understand that sometimes payroll is tied to a team’s success. For example, rebuilding teams, organizations that choose to tear down their rosters to go with young talent instead of declining veterans, will have low payrolls. And in the 90’s, when the Indians had perpetually contending teams, we remember GM John Hart defending his high payroll by saying the Tribe had a lot of good players, so they should rank high on the list of teams with big salary expenditures.

In 2018, the lowest payrolls belonged to Tampa Bay (90-72), Oakland (97-65 and made the playoffs), White Sox (62-100), Miami (63-98), and Pittsburgh (82-79).

And the lowest payrolls in 2017 belonged to San Diego (71-91), Oakland (75-87), Milwaukee (86-76), Cincinnati (68-94), and of course, Tampa Bay (80-82).

Because we wanted to show five full seasons (not counting 2020) of data, in 2016, the teams spending the least on players were Tampa Bay (68-94), San Diego (68-94), Milwaukee (73-89), Oakland (69-93), and Miami (79-82).

When people talk about being successful with small payrolls, they are really only talking about two organizations: The Rays and the A’s. That’s two teams out of 30, which isn’t a good percentage. Only Tampa Bay last season made the World Series. So, having a low payroll doesn’t exactly translate to success in the post-season.

The other organizations which were mentioned several times earlier included Pittsburgh, which had one season over .500 and that was 82-79, and Miami, which probably only made the playoffs in 2020 because they expanded the post-season last year, and would they have made it if the season were 162 games?

It also seems like there is room for only one small payroll team in the post-season each season. So, this year, the Indians and their slashed payroll have to compete with Tampa, because as of today, the A’s have moved out of the bottom five for 2021.

The White Sox were in the bottom five many times in this piece, but again, they were in rebuild mode, waiting for their young prospects to be good, and then spending to complement them, and San Diego pretty much did the same, although they collected a ton of prospects and then traded many of them (not all) for established players.

Yes, we understand the success that Tampa Bay and Oakland have had, but they are the only two organizations have success. Can the Indians join them as teams that don’t spend and still can compete? The odds say no, and that’s way it’s a huge gamble.

If it doesn’t work, the folks that will pay the most are the people who buy tickets. The Dolan ownership has already burned a lot of bridges with the baseball fans here, this move could be the final straw.