Tag: peter gammons

Tribe’s Slump Is Normal (Not That It Makes It Better For Fans)

When the Cleveland Indians completed the first half of their 2016 schedule, they had just ended a club record 14 game winning streak, and were on pace for 98 wins for the season, sitting at 49-32.

In the next 27 games, 1/6th of the season if you will, they didn’t continue the torrid pace they were on leading up to the halfway point, but they weren’t exactly awful either.  Here is how they have handling each 27 game stretch thus far:

First 27 games:  14-13, 5 games out of 1st place
Games 28-54:  16-11, total record 30-24, led AL Central by 1/2 game
Games 55-81:  19-8, total record 49-32, led AL Central by 5-1/2 games
Games 82-108:  13-14, total record 62-46, lead AL Central by 2 games

So, as ghastly as the last week has been, with the team’s strength, the starting rotation getting cuffed around by the Twins and Yankees, the last sixth of the season hasn’t been much different than the beginning of the campaign.

And in reality, most teams, even teams that reach the playoffs don’t play .700 baseball all season long.  If the Tribe played the entire season like they did from game 55-81, they would have ended the season with a record of 114-48.

Cleveland’s starters had an ERA of under 3.00 during the month of June, a month in which Terry Francona’s squad went 22-6 and didn’t lose a home game.  Although we predicted a division title before the season started, even we didn’t think that the Indians are as good as they played in that stretch.

The pitching as a whole did drop off, falling off the top spot in ERA to ranking 3rd in the AL currently, but much of that was due to the past week, when opponents were scoring 10 or more runs per night on a regular basis.

Danny Salazar’s absence will be felt, but if Cleveland is to maintain its grip on first place, they will need Trevor Bauer to pitch like he did before July 1st.  He has struggled since pitching five innings in relief on July 1st, the 19 inning win over Toronto.

They will also need Mike Clevinger, or someone else from the Columbus roster to provide some solid outings.  Clevinger has proved he can dominate at AAA, but his starts in the bigs have been tainted by an inability to command the strike zone.  Perhaps getting comfortable up in the majors will help this.

The addition of Andrew Miller gives Francona the ability to put games away if the Tribe leads after six. For all the criticism around him (we have done it too), Bryan Shaw is a solid arm, and Cody Allen is too, although he would be better if he threw more strikes.

The offense continues to surprise, ranking 2nd in the league in runs scored.

Mike Napoli continues to bash the baseball, closing in on a career high in HRs, and Jason Kipnis has always topped his career best in that category.

And Francona has done a great job getting the most out of Rajai Davis and Lonnie Chisenhall, new acquisition Brandon Guyer has contributed already.

Tyler Naquin has shocked everyone (except Peter Gammons) by blossoming into a Rookie of the Year candidate, but with Davis, Guyer, and now Abraham Almonte performing well at the dish, it’s hard to argue with the skipper’s handling of his playing time.

Does the Tribe need to go on a nice winning stretch again?  Of course, but the last 27 games haven’t been as bad as people have made them out to be.

If Detroit can stay this hot, then tip your cap to them. Our guess is they will have a slump just like Cleveland, and the lead in the Central will grow once again.

MW

Can Tribe Bullpen Hold Up?

Up until the beginning of last week, everyone thought (us included) thought one of the Cleveland Indians’ strengths was its bullpen.

Then came the last game of the homestand against Seattle, when Vinnie Pestano, Chris Perez, and Joe Smith all allowed solo home runs to tie a game in which the Tribe eventually won.

Later in the week, Pestano had a bad outing to cost the Indians a win against Boston.  His velocity was down, and he turned a 4-3 lead into a 7-4 deficit, although Mike Carp’s double is only that in Fenway Park, and the last two runs scored on a wind-blown pop fly that fell in.

Still, because Pestano has been so reliable for so long, and he is just coming off a stint on the disabled list for a sore elbow, there is reason for concern.

Then yesterday, Perez turned a three run lead into a crushing loss to the Red Sox, and left the game with an apparent shoulder injury in the process.

There are warning signs for both hurlers.  Pestano’s strikeout to walk ratio this season is just 12 to 7 in 12 innings pitched.  For his career, the right-hander has struck out three times as many hitters as he has walked (180 to 60) and averages almost 11 punchouts per nine innings.

As for Perez, he normally fans 2.22 hitters for everyone he walks and averages a strikeout per inning.  His whiffs are on pace (18 in 16-2/3 frames), but he’s walked 10 in his work thus far.

Loss of command and decreased velocity are warning signs of an injury.

So where does Terry Francona go from here?

He does have some options to close, and remember what former Tribe GM John Hart used to say, closers fall out of trees.  The skipper can turn to young Cody Allen, who MLB Network’s Peter Gammons called the best young reliever in the AL.  Allen already has one save on the year, and has allowed only 16 hits in 23-1/3 innings, striking out 30 and walking seven in the process.

He also has Smith, also with a save on the season.  Smitty is a veteran, and has allowed 11 hits in 17 innings, walking five while striking out 18.  Because he is a sidearmer, the tendency is to think of him as a specialist vs. right handers, but his velocity allows him to get left-handed hitters out too.  He’s allowed lefty hitters a .251 batting average for his career, compared to .218 to right-handed batters.

Bryan Shaw is another intriguing alternative.  Shaw, sort of a throw in coming along with Matt Albers in getting Trevor Bauer for Shin-Soo Choo, looks to have closer stuff.  He’s allowed 20 hits in 24-1/3 innings, striking out 24 and walking eight.  At the very least, he will probably start getting work in the seventh and eighth innings as opposed to the sixth now.

One other pitcher has been mentioned as well, veteran Brett Myers, now rehabbing an elbow problem.  The veteran saved 19 games last year in Houston before getting traded to the White Sox, and with Cory Kluber pitching well, there doesn’t seem to be a spot in the starting rotation for him.  It is difficult to think Francona will go to him in this role until he has proven to be healthy and effective at the big league level.

Of course, the best think for the bullpen will be more innings from the starting pitchers.  The rotation has been a little better than expected, but there have been far too many starts of just five innings.  In the last turn through the rotation, both Zack McAllister and Scott Kazmir had “five and fly” outings, and Ubaldo Jimenez made it through only four frames vs. Detroit.

That cannot continue to happen, or the weaknesses cropping up in the bullpen could cause it to implode.

It’s been a tough week for the Tribe relief corps, but only that.  One week.  The Indians still have some reliable power arms ready to use at the end of games.

KM