Tag: pennant race

Should Perez Continue to Close?

The Cleveland Indians are very much in a pennant race and yet they have a huge question mark in the back of their bullpen.

Last night, Chris Perez came into a critical game with a 3-2 lead and allowed two solo home runs to turn it into a 4-3 deficit. 

Jason Giambi titanic pinch-hit dinger saved Perez, but it is not a secret that the Tribe’s closer has struggled in the last two months.

After the game, Terry Francona expressed confidence in Perez, but that’s what the skipper does.  He never questions his players in public.  He is the ultimate players’ manager in that regard.

Secretly though, Francona and his coaches have got to be mulling over alternatives the next time there is a save situation for Cleveland, and that could come as early as tonight.

The problem is Perez’ sudden propensity to give up the long ball.  He has now allowed 10 homers in just 53 innings.  That’s a lot for a closer.

By comparison, the American League leader in saves; Baltimore’s Jim Johnson has allowed just five long balls in 67 innings pitched.

Kansas City’s Greg Holland, who has a 1.25 ERA for the year to go with 45 saves, has allowed three home runs in 65 innings of work.

Future Hall of Fame closer, New York’s Mariano Rivera has given up six homers in 62 innings pitched. 

Perez has allowed four more blasts than any of these relievers haven’t outstanding seasons and has pitched less than all of them.

One other startling statistic:  Justin Masterson has allowed just 13 circuit clouts despite throwing 140 more innings (189 thus far on the season).

Closers who give up a lot of home runs are liabilities in one run games because the lead can be lost with one swing of the bat.

As Perez has shown before, you can pitch around a walk or a base hit with the closest of margins.  It may not be ideal for the health of his manager or the Tribe fan base, but it can be done.  Allowing a single by itself doesn’t cost your team the lead.

It is also Perez’ second half performance in total that should give Francona pause to put him in with a one run lead.  He has a 4.39 ERA since the All-Star break and has allowed six bombs in 26 IP.  Opposing hitters are batting .276 against him.

This compares to a 3.04 ERA before the Midsummer Classic and he was holding opponents to a .225 average.

It gets worse.  Since the first of August, Perez has a 5.95 ERA. 

So this isn’t a knee-jerk reaction to him blowing a save in a game the Tribe needed with the playoff hopes on the line.  He’s been bad for two months.  His statistics as a closer are always repeated (he’s only blown five saves), but clearly he hasn’t been effective for almost two months.

We understand there is a tremendous difference in what Francona says and what he does.  If the Tribe is leading 5-2 going into the ninth tonight, he may very well go with Perez. 

However, if the Indians do play in the wild card game and go to the last inning with a one run advantage, will it be Chris Perez’ game?

Only Francona knows that for sure.

KM

Don’t Forget, Tribe Has Two Shots at Playoffs

Going into tonight’s series against the Detroit TIgers, baseball fans in Cleveland looked at the four game set as a showdown for the American League Central Division lead.

Tonight’s crushing defeat has Tribe fans all over the area panicking because the pennant race is slipping away.

But Indians’ supporters are missing something else,  Going into tonight’s game, both Cleveland and Detroit would make the playoffs because the Tribe held the lead in the wild card chase by a half game over the Texas Rangers.

That’s right, with all of the experts saying all season long that the non-division winners that qualify for post-season play would come out of the tough AL East and AL West, here sit the Indians with a playoff spot if the season ended today.

It doesn’t of course, but no longer is it a shoo-in that the wild card will come from one of the coastal divisions.

Several things have happened to teams in those divisions that give the Tribe a fighting chance at a post-season spot.

It is very probable that one of the wild card teams comes out of the East, with the loser in the Boston-Tampa Bay dogfight getting a spot.  Right now, the Rays have a 4-1/2 game lead for a berth.

At this moment, the Indians, Rangers, and Orioles are all within a game and a half of each other for the spot to play either the Red Sox or Rays.

The Royals and Yankees, who figured to be a certain playoff team, are the same number of games behind the Indians as Cleveland is behind Tampa Bay.  So, while both teams have a plausible chance to win the last spot, they would have to jump over three teams.

That’s why fans can’t overreact even if the Tigers would sweep the Indians at Progressive Field.   If that happened, the Tribe would be seven games behind the Detroit, but they would still probably be within two or three games of the wild card.

And Cleveland would only have three more games against the Jim Leyland’s crew the rest of the way.  Even ESPN’s Buster Olney noted the other day that the Tribe’s last 17 games are against the Royals, Twins, White Sox, and Astros.

That’s a lot of games against lower echelon teams if Terry Francona’s squad is in contention going into the last three weeks of the season.

Yes, it would be good to stay within striking distance of the Tigers as well, giving them two chances at making the post-season.  And it would be nice to stop allowing the Tigers to steal wins as they did tonight.

However, fans need to look at the big picture.

There are still 50 games remaining in the season, and no matter what happens the next three days, when the Tribe plays the Angels this weekend, they will still be in the playoff mix.

They do have a tough stretch on the road after this weekend, with 18 of their next 21 games away from Cleveland.  Among the teams Francona’s crew will play are playoff teams like Oakland, Atlanta, and Detroit.

That more than this week will likely determine the Indians’ fate.

KM