The first clue came at Guardians’ Fest when owner Paul Dolan said the reason for not signing any free agent outfielders is they wanted to give the young players in the farm system a chance.
Then in the past few days, manager Steven Vogt and president Chris Antonetti mentioned the same thing.
To us, this is a pretty risky plan especially if the organization has designs on making the playoffs. Remember, this shouldn’t be a “rebuild”, they won the division title just two years ago with the youngest roster in the sport.
It is universally known that the Guardians have a problem scoring runs, ranking 12th in the American League a year ago. We believe to have a solid major league lineup, a team needs to have six, maybe even seven solid bats in the batting order.
In our opinion, right now, the Guards have four: Jose Ramirez of course, Josh Naylor, Steven Kwan, and Andres Gimenez. Bo Naylor showed promise a year ago, but he has less than 250 big league at bats, and can’t be counted as of yet.
And we are pressing the definition of “solid” with Kwan (710 OPS) and Gimenez (712 OPS), each would be the 6th or 7th best hitters on very good hitting teams.
The front office could have signed a veteran free agent to a one-year contract (there are no such things as bad one-year deals) to add a proven stick to the order. Players like J.D. Martinez (career 874 OPS) and Tommy Pham (786 OPS) are still on the market.
Cleveland acquired Estevan Florial from New York over the winter and he had a big year in AAA last season and was a former top 100 prospect. George Valera has also been on this list, but he’s never been in the big leagues and has battled injuries the last two seasons.
Otherwise, the candidates the team is depending aren’t on the list of the top prospects in the game, nor are they on the Guardians’ top 10 list, at least among the outfielders.
So, our question is this: What is Plan B if none of the young players the brass is talking about come through in 2024?
In 2022, Will Brennan slashed 371/479/850 in the minor leagues, at both the AA and AAA levels. Last year, in the big leagues, Brennan had a 655 OPS, with both the on base and pop he showed in the minors in ’22 having disappeared.
This isn’t to say Brennan is a bust, for right now, we simply will call it growing pains, but the fact remains he didn’t provide much offense for the Guardians last season.
In three seasons at AAA, Florial has slashed 358/490/848, similar numbers to Brennan. And although he has only 134 plate appearances in the big leagues, he has a 609 OPS, striking out 41 times.
Another hopeful is Johnathan Rodriguez, who in 47 games at Columbus last season was outstanding 376/560/936. With 476 plate appearances in AA, his numbers are 334/497/831. Solid, but not overwhelming.
Jhonkensy Noel, a minor league slugger, is also in the mix, but in a full season at Columbus last year put up these numbers: 303/420/723.
Kyle Manzardo is a Guardians’ top 10 prospect, and it seems like the organization wants him to start in AAA. Perhaps, it’s because he’s not already on the 40-man roster. In AAA last season, he had an 802 OPS.
And no, we don’t consider a player with a 676 OPS a year ago to be a solid bat. We are talking about Ramon Laureano, claimed on waivers from Oakland last season in August. His last season with an OPS over 750 was 2021.
Could things fall into place and Brennan bounces back, Bo Naylor continues to hit like he did in the second half last season, and Brayan Rocchio hits like he has in winter ball? Of course, and if that happens, the offensive woes could be solved.
We like having a backup plan, though. Of course, that costs money. Hence the problem for the front office.