Contention Or Not, Strategy At Trade Deadline Is Same For Tribe

It would be easy to say the 10 game stretch after the All Star Game will determine how the Cleveland Indians approach the MLB trading deadline at the end of July. After all, the Tribe will start the proverbial second half of the season with series against the A’s, Astros, and Rays.

Many people will say a lack of success against those teams, with three of the top five records in the American League will put the Indians in selling mode.

However, we don’t think it will make much of a difference either way.

First, who would GM Mike Chernoff be willing to sell? Eddie Rosario would be a candidate, but he is hurt right now, and it doesn’t appear he will be ready to play before the deadline. And whether the Tribe is still in contention or not, they may try to move 2B Cesar Hernandez in order to see what Owen Miller, Ernie Clement, or even Andres Gimenez can do in the last two months of the season.

The signing of veteran catcher Wilson Ramos to a minor league contract, may mean the front office is working on a deal for one of their catchers, either Roberto Perez or Austin Hedges, we would bet the latter is more likely.

And veteran reliever Bryan Shaw, although he hasn’t pitched as well lately as he did earlier in the season is still having a fine season (2-3, 3.08 ERA and 47 strikeouts in 38 innings), might be an interesting piece in the bullpen for a team with World Series expectations.

One thing that isn’t discussed enough is the glut of prospects Cleveland has that need to be protected in the Rule 5 draft during the winter meetings in December. They have more players than spots that will likely be available on the 40 man roster, and that might play a part in what they do at the end of this month.

Chernoff and team president Chris Antonetti will likely take the same tact they have the last two seasons, meaning they will look for young, controllable players who may be able to help this year, but will be key parts of the 2022 and 2023 Cleveland Indians.

The one difference if Terry Francona’s squad comes through those first ten games after the Midsummer Classic in good shape, is that the brass might look for a pitcher who can help stabilize the starting rotation right now.

Zach Plesac is back, but it would appear the Shane Bieber and Aaron Civale will not return until next month, so getting an arm who can provide quality innings right now might be in play. But we would not expect a rental piece.

The Tribe might also make decisions on some players who have been around the organization for awhile as well. It appears Daniel Johnson will get an extended look while Rosario is out, and the Indians need to make a decision on Bradley Zimmer, Oscar Mercado, and Yu Chang.

Chang has been sent to Columbus, so perhaps that decision has been made.

It wouldn’t be a shock to us, if either Zimmer or Mercado is cut loose at the end of this month.

We could also get our first glimpse of Nolan Jones after August 1st. The Tribe would probably like to get a good look at him during the rest of this season to get an idea of what they have going into 2022.

We believe that Antonetti and Chernoff will be busy before the deadline, but it won’t be a “fire sale”, and whether the team is still in contention or not, the aim will be the same.

Bring in young, controllable players who can help in the future while weeding out players who likely wouldn’t be back next season.

That’s essentially what they did in getting Franmil Reyes and Josh Naylor the past two years.

Tribe Offense Shows Signs Of Life…In The Last Week

A week ago Saturday, the Indians made the long awaited move, calling up Bobby Bradley from Columbus and designating Jake Bauers for assignment.

Bauers was later traded to Seattle for a player to be named later or cash.

Since Bradley was called up, the Tribe has scored 39 runs in six games, although Bradley hasn’t appeared in all of them. That’s well above their average of a little over four runs per contest.

Bradley has started off hot, going 7 for 14, with a couple of home runs and seven runs batted in. In addition to the slugging first baseman, Amed Rosario and Eddie Rosario have both picked up the pace, and with Jose Ramirez, has given Cleveland a respectable top five hitters in the order.

First of all, although it is great that Bradley is off to a good start, it’s only 14 at bats, and way, way too soon to make any judgments or proclamations that he is the answer to the Tribe’s offensive woes.

At the very least, Bradley should take the at bats Bauers was getting vs. right-handed pitchers, and he has already exceeded the number of RBIs the new Mariner had in 100 at bats with Cleveland. And if Bradley stays hot, give him some at bats vs. southpaws as well.

What does that mean for rookie Owen Miller, who has struggled since his call up, going 5 for 46 with 23 strikeouts. If Miller isn’t going to get regular at bats, and it’s hard to see that he will, he might be best served going back to AAA and getting regular playing time.

Yu Chang isn’t hitting either, but he doesn’t have the minor league credentials Miller does, so he stays for now, but remember Jordan Luplow will need to be activated soon, so someone will have to go.

Then you still have the outfield problem. The Indians could really use Bradley Zimmer’s defense in centerfield on a daily basis, but Zimmer’s strikeout problems have reared up again (16 K’s and just three walks in 38 plate appearances), so it’s tough to put him in the lineup everyday.

Harold Ramirez has been steady at the plate, hitting .269 with a 755 OPS, one of the better marks on the roster. We are sure the organization would like Josh Naylor’s name in the lineup too. Naylor is hitting .251 with a 686 OPS, but his minor league numbers, particularly at AA and AAA, indicate he will be a productive big league hitter.

The solution could be simply starting Ramirez in center, and if the Tribe has the lead after six innings, Zimmer takes over in CF with Ramirez coming out of the game or moving to rightfield.

We understand some people are worrying about who will be replaced when Franmil Reyes returns to the active roster. To them, we will say things have a way of working out.

Besides, it’s not as though the Indians have a bunch of Mike Trouts on the roster. By the time Reyes is back, someone will cool off and deserve less playing time. And if that doesn’t happen, the Tribe will be in good shape for the rest of the season.

We say it all the time, sometimes it doesn’t have to be a big splash move, improving the roster incrementally works too. Even making yourself slightly better helps you in the win/loss column.

Sometimes just tweaking the roster is just what the doctor ordered.

No One At Columbus Is Grabbing The Opportunity With Tribe

We feel it is well established by now that the Cleveland Indians are offensively challenged. They rank 11th in the American League in runs scored per game at 3.92, almost a half run below the league average of 4.37.

They are second last in on base percentage, 11th in slugging percentage, and 13th in OPS, ahead of just the Tigers and Mariners.

The pitching staff has dropped to 5th in ERA, springing a few leaks as Zach Plesac went down with an injury and whoever has pitched in the 4th and 5th spots in the rotation have not been effective.

We have pointed out the team has just two hitters over 800 in OPS, Jose Ramirez and Franmil Reyes, and the latter is out for perhaps two months with an oblique strain.

What maybe even worse is that Terry Francona and his staff have given 11 hitters with an OPS under 700 (the league average is 709 over 50 plate appearances.

We have complained and wondered why some of those players keep getting opportunities. Some of them haven’t performed up to league average for over two seasons.

There is a simple and yet, troubling reason why the front office hasn’t made a lot of changes. There isn’t exactly anyone at AAA Columbus who is banging down the door to get a big league shot.

Obviously, Owen Miller earned a shot by hitting .406 in 64 at bats, and yet he has struggled with the Tribe, getting just four hits in 32 at bats (.125).

Bradley Zimmer received the call last week, and after a tough start to the season, had rebounded to hit .267 with a 780 OPS. He has fanned 26 times in 75 appearances at the dish, but his defense and speed are tools needed for the big club.

Daniel Johnson was thought to be the closest to be ready at AAA to open the season, but he entered play on Monday batting just .197 and striking out 33 times in 87 plate appearances. He has walked 10 times and has a 720 OPS.

The Tribe’s #1 position prospect, Nolan Jones, has had problems in his first taste of AAA action. He’s hitting just .189 with a single home run thus far, and although he leads the Clippers with 16 walks, he too has had contact problems, whiffing a team high 39 times in 91 plate appearances.

Oscar Mercado, who had success with the Tribe in ’19, is hitting .170 with no homers and five runs batted in. His OPS is just 490.

The people’s choice from spring training, slugging first baseman Bobby Bradley, does lead the Clippers in homers with 7 and is tied for the team lead in RBIs with 17. He’s also hitting just .170 with only seven walks and still is having contact issues, fanning 30 times in 94 times at the plate.

The best hitter (besides Miller) at Columbus is 33-year-old veteran catcher Ryan Lavarnway, who is hitting .283 with six dingers and a 955 OPS. Young infielder Ernie Clement, only 25, has missed some time with injuries, but is hitting .353 with 7 doubles in 34 at bats. He was the 27th man in Sunday’s doubleheader, so is he getting close to a shot in the bigs?

Without alternatives in AAA, it is tough to move on from the players who have been with the team all season, even though they aren’t producing.

If someone could emerge in the minor leagues soon, there are opportunities awaiting them in Cleveland. Our bet is the front office is waiting for the same thing.

Key Injuries For Tribe, And Can They Survive Them?

The Cleveland Indians avoided the injury bug for the first quarter of the Major League Baseball season, but it has come back to bite them in the past few days.

Two key members of the Tribe, continuing to battle in the American League Central at 26-21, just a game and a half behind the front-running Chicago White Sox, will be among the missing for probably 4-6 weeks, if not more.

Saturday, Franmil Reyes, the second best offensive threat Terry Francona has had at his disposal this season, strained an oblique and was placed on the injured list. Reyes leads the team in RBIs with 29 and is second in home runs with 11, one behind Jose Ramirez.

The next day saw another key injury as Zach Plesac fractured his thumb (off the field injury) and was also forced on the IL. Plesac was one of the three starters (Shane Bieber and Aaron Civale, the others) the skipper can count on right now, so the starting pitching is very, very thin right now, especially when it comes to experience.

Losing the second best hitter on a below average offense will make it even more difficult for Francona to cobble together lineups that can score runs. Owen Miller came up to replace Reyes on the roster, but really, the Tribe needs Eddie Rosario, currently hitting .228 with just 3 home runs to start hitting the way he did against the Indians when he was with the Twins.

It would also help if Josh Naylor stepped up more, and Cleveland could get more offense out of the first base position. Jake Bauers has been better lately, but a .303 slugging percentage says he’s not providing much pop.

As for Miller, he’s off to a slow start, but since the Tribe brought him up, they have to play him everyday to see what he can contribute.

Reyes’ absence also means opposing teams will have even more incentive to avoid Ramirez in late inning situations, where he has been lethal. We would let E. Rosario, Jordan Luplow or virtually anyone else to beat my team late in a contest rather than Jose Ramirez.

The loss of Plesac can be devastating. Cleveland brought up Triston McKenzie, just sent to AAA to work on control issues, to pitch last night, and right now, the only start not going to Bieber and Civale that is etched in stone is Sam Hentges going on Saturday.

The problem is exacerbated by Monday’s doubleheader (albeit seven inning games, meh) against the White Sox

The obvious thing to do (at least to us) was to start stretching out Cal Quantrill, which the club announced yesterday. With the resurgence of veteran Bryan Shaw and the emergence of rookie Nick Sandlin in the bullpen, and the fact that Francona prefers to use certain relievers when he has a lead, Quantrill has a very limited role in the ‘pen, pitching in very low leverage situations.

And remember, going into spring training, Quantrill was being groomed as a starter. He dropped out of contention for the rotation because of command issues and Logan Allen pitching lights out in Arizona.

It seems to us, right now Quantrill is more valuable to the Indians as a starting pitcher, keeping the team in games early.

We would also give a start to another rookie Jean Carlos Mejia. Mejia started the year in the rotation at Columbus, making two starts, and has pitched in two games in the bigs, allowing just one hit and fanning six in 3-1/3 innings.

Who knows, maybe the organization finds out they regained some rotation depth in Quantrill and Mejia.

This is where Francona’s one game at a time pays dividends for his team. He won’t bemoan the injuries and who isn’t there, he will just ask his team to win the game they are playing that night.

Really, that’s the best approach to take right now.

Time To Give Miller A Shot.

When you are hitting .212 as a team through a quarter of the season, you should be looking for offense wherever you can.

That’s why the debate on is there a place on the 26 man roster for Owen Miller is getting ridiculous. Miller has played shortstop more than any other position on the diamond during his minor league career, but if the organization is concerned about his defense, there are many other places where the Indians can use his bat.

First, we aren’t claiming Miller is the second coming of Babe Ruth. However, he is a career .317 hitter (830 OPS) during his professional career, so he has hit wherever he has played, and while we understand spring training numbers don’t mean much, but he hit there as well.

In 12 games at Columbus thus far, the right-handed hitter is batting an incredible .442 (23 for 52) with a homer and seven runs batted in. The only down stat is 13 strikeouts in 56 plate appearances, although he hasn’t fanned more than 86 times in any minor league season to date.

It would be more difficult to come up with a reason NOT to bring him up.

As to where he should play? Well, there are a few suggestions, but we’d pencil him in everyday at first base, where Jake Bauers and Yu Chang have combined to hit .171 with two home runs and 12 ribbies.

You could keep him at SS, where Andres Gimenez failed at the plate (534 OPS) and although Amed Rosario has had a couple of decent games at the plate, he is still hitting just .231 with a 629 OPS.

Since we like Rosario better than the Bauers/Chang platoon, that’s why we’d put Miller at that spot, and basically check back in after 20-25 games to see how he is doing.

He isn’t a power hitter really, but the Tribe ranks 8th in the American League in home runs now. What the Indians really need is a guy who gets hits and gets on base, they are second from the bottom in the AL in on base percentage and Miller has a minor league career .375 on base percentage.

When you think about it, if he came up and hit .250, that would be an improvement for the Tribe offense, and quite frankly his minor league pedigree says he will do better than that number.

We subscribe to the “can’t do any worse” theory, and Owen Miller, who came over in the Mike Clevinger deal last season, can’t be worse at first base than who Terry Francona writes in the lineup every day right now.

Is it an ideal situation to bring up a player who has played just 12 games at the AAA level? Of course not, you would like to see him get more at bats at that level. But it has been done before. Fernando Tatis Jr., although a much better prospect than Miller, never played at that level.

And for old school folks (like me), former Tribe manager Mike Hargrove came up to the Rangers after playing in A ball. If you can hit, you can hit. Since the Indians are starving for some consistency from anyone not named Jose Ramirez at the plate, it’s time to give Miller a shot.

This isn’t to say Owen Miller is the savior, we don’t want to put that kind of pressure on the young man. We are saying he’s likely better than at least one player in the lineup the Tribe is putting out there on a daily basis.

Tribe Needs To Walk, And Walks Are Good.

It goes without saying that the Cleveland Indians are struggling offensively. We’ve discussed it before, but currently the Tribe is averaging less than four runs per game, 12th in the American League.

They are second last in batting average (.209), but weirdly lead the league in home runs. They have the largest percentage of their runs scored coming from homers, which might seem like a positive statistics, but really is a negative one.

They don’t score much unless someone hits a home run.

They do rank 5th in the AL in walks, and have dropped in recent days to a tie for third in striking out the least amount of times.

We are a big believer in the strikeout/walk ratio in determining the ability of a hitter.

While there are exceptions, hitters that have high strikeout totals and don’t walk a lot aren’t destined to have long careers in the big leagues. It’s fine if you have high whiff and walk rates. In Cleveland, think about players like Jim Thome and Travis Hafner.

It’s one reason we were concerned about Amed Rosario, who last season had a 39/4 ratio.

What worries us is that if a batter doesn’t know the difference between a strike and a ball, pitchers figure that out pretty quickly, and realize they don’t have to throw the batter a pitch in the zone to get them out.

It’s also why we are anxious to see how young hitters like Tyler Freeman and Owen Miller do when minor league baseball starts in May. So far in their professional career, they make opposing pitchers throw strikes to get them out for the most part.

So far, the Cleveland hitters with the worst ratio in this regard are Austin Hedges (7 K’s/1 BB), Franmil Reyes (18/3), Andres Gimenez (10/2), and Josh Naylor (12/4).

Can you imagine how lethal Reyes would be at the plate if he could lay off pitches out of the strike zone? We understand some of that comes with experience, because hitters are anxious to come up with the big hit, rather than keep the line going and pass on the opportunity to the next batter.

On the other hand, here are the hitters who have good ratios: Jose Ramirez (8/7), Cesar Hernandez (13/10), Jordan Luplow (10/7), and Roberto Perez (14/9). This is one of the reasons, despite a .167 batting average thus far, we think putting Hernandez in the leadoff spot would be a good move.

It’s also why we are encouraged about Luplow, and why we think he should start seeing more at bats vs. right-handed pitching. He leads the team home runs and RBIs, despite having just 37 plate appearances, and is 3 for 6 with two dingers against righties. The outfield has not provided a lot of offense since the beginning of the 2020 season, so why not give Luplow more chances based on this success.

So far, the Indians have been dismal hitting with runners in scoring position, which is the biggest reason they have become so dependent on the home run to score. The more opportunities these selective hitters get, we should see better results, as long as they maintain patience.

Think to Tuesday night, when Luplow fanned with the bases loaded in the fifth despite being ahead in the count, 3-1. He swung at two pitches above the zone. That inning is different if he just takes the walk, which he has done the season for the most part.

On the other hand, keep an eye on players like Reyes, Gimenez, Naylor, and to a lesser extent, Amed Rosario, and see how many times they get themselves out.

We aren’t saying it’s easy to hit big league pitching, but it helps if you limit yourself to swinging at good pitches.

The encouraging thing about Tuesday’s contest was the Indians drew nine walks. They need the base on balls to help their offense.

A Realistic Plan For Tribe

Over the weekend, the Indians payroll (or lack of it) was in the news again, as the front office worked through the media to justify the reduction of the money being paid to players.

The situation noted was Tampa’s letting pitcher Charlie Morton leave via free agency, although we would say not paying a 37-year-old starting pitcher over $10 million isn’t quite the same as what the Tribe is doing.

First, using the term “reducing” when it comes to players’ salaries in Cleveland is being gentle. When you go from $130 million in 2017 to something projected to be under $70 million in 2021 should be categorized as “gutting” the payroll.

And that figure is with Francisco Lindor on the team. If he is traded, which seems like a certainty, the likely number could be closer to $50 million.

Unfortunately, the owners of the Indians don’t want to address the situation publicly. We understand if Paul Dolan were to speak to the media, he would use the pandemic, attendance loss, blah, blah, blah, and no one would press him (nor would he give you a truthful answer).

It is curious how the virus hasn’t affected teams like the Padres, White Sox, and Nationals from appearing like they want to add talent this winter, and the Royals have been making moves as well.

We were challenged on social media, since we have a huge problem with this salary cut being done during a period where the Indians have made the playoffs in four of the last five years, and won 93 games in the season where they didn’t qualify.

We get that the Indians cannot spend with the Yankees, Red Sox, and Dodgers, but a payroll of $100 million shouldn’t be out of the question.

Based on this, signing Lindor to a multi-year deal between $25-$30 million per year would put the projected salary figure in the $80 million range and you now have the foundation of two superstars in their prime (with Jose Ramirez) and one of the best starting rotations in the game as a basis of contending.

Besides, as we’ve seen this week with Blake Snell and Yu Darvish, you can always trade a star player in the middle of a contract if you decide it’s not working out.

While we would be interested in playing younger players in ’21, we would spend money, preferably one year deals on some hitters to help the lineup transition to a younger look going forward.

We would like to plug in Daniel Johnson in CF, and see if Owen Miller and/or Yu Chang could hold down 2B, but we would provide Terry Francona with some options.

If you are contending, there is a limit to how much you can watch young players struggle. On the other hand, if the lineup is producing runs despite the struggles, a team can be more patient with young players.

FYI, we didn’t include Nolan Jones because he’s only played a half year at the AA level, and it appears he will also be making a position switch.

We would look at adding guys like a Nick Markakis, Robbie Grossman, or Tommy LaStella as low cost free agents (you might have to wait until late January or early February to see if asking prices come down). They could tie you over in a corner outfield spot or at second base if the young guys aren’t ready.

We would also add another bullpen arm. We would go into camp with James Karinchak and Emmanuel Clase being the primary late inning relievers, but why not take a shot on pitchers like Sean Doolittle or a Hector Rondon if you can get them at a solid price.

Now, we understand the ownership doesn’t care what we would do. They would rather cry about money even though as a family they have a tremendous amount of money, more than we or any other fan has.

There is absolutely no reason for this type of dismantling of a contending baseball team. This is not an aging team and it is also not a squad on the decline in terms of the record on the field.

If you are a fan of the Indians, it’s a sad, sad time.