The Okoro Dilemma

In the 2020 NBA Draft, the Cleveland Cavaliers took a player with a defensive reputation with the fifth overall selection. Isaac Okoro was just 19 years old then, and he’s only 21 now, but we didn’t like the selection at the time.

Why? Because at that spot, you need an all around player. Defense and defensive instincts are easier to teach at the NBA level than developing an offensive game. As the great John Wooden said, the same skills that make a player good offensively can be used to play well on the defensive end.

We think GM Koby Altman took Okoro that high because the Cavs were a terrible defensive team the previous two seasons. Again, that had more to do with a lack of defensive philosophy from the coaching staff. We feel if the coaches would have told the team we must defend to win in this league, they would have been better defensively.

So, it sounded really good to bring in a defensive player high in the draft, but fans don’t usually see the problems with this.

First, your defense is only as good as your worst defensive player. You can have Bill Russell in his prime at center or Dennis Johnson at guard, and if the rest of the players on the floor couldn’t guard their own shadow, you will not be a decent defensive unit.

Conversely, having a player who is not a threat on the offensive end causes problems too. What do you think happens to the opponent assigned to guard someone who isn’t an issue when your team has the ball? He’s free, within the rules, to double team a better player, or position himself near the lane to discourage players from driving.

Too often Okoro isn’t a factor on the offensive end. Since the all star break, a span of 21 games, the second year man out of Auburn have taken five shots or less seven times. His high in field goal attempts is nine.

It’s not like he is a great passer either. His high in assists over this time frame is five, done twice.

His numbers after the break are similar to what they were before: 9 points, 3 rebounds, 2 assists, but his defensive rating has fallen from 111 to 120. And he’s playing three more minutes per game after the break (almost 32 per night)

Compare that to Lamar Stevens, an undrafted free agent, who also has a defensive mindset.

Stevens is scoring 8.5 points and 3.3 boards since the all star game, and he’s getting just 19.5 minutes per game.

Right now, to our eyes, Stevens is the better player, and if he were the fifth overall pick, he’d be getting 30 minutes per night.

This is not to write off Okoro. As we mentioned earlier, he’s just 21 years old, and has time to improve his game. But he has to contribute on the offensive end. Stevens can. He has a nice mid-range game, and he doesn’t settle for threes (most times).

For the record, we would have taken Obi Toppin with the fifth pick, and we still think he can play if he ever gets out from under Tom Thibodeau.

Who else was available? How about Tyrese Haliburton or Saddiq Bey or Tyrese Maxey. Of all the players in that draft, Okoro has the second lowest VORP (value over replacement player). And that includes the players taken on the second round.

That’s why you don’t take a defensive specialist that high in the draft, you take players who have an all around game. But until Isaac Okoro can make himself a threat offensively, it’s tough to make a case for getting the playing time he is receiving.

Draft Toppin? That’s Fine With Us.

One week from today, the NBA will hold its draft, about four months later than normal. As we know, the Cleveland Cavaliers will have the fifth overall pick.

In the last two drafts, GM Koby Altman has taken two 19-year-old guards with his first overall pick, and last season had two other first round picks, taking a four year college player and another teenager.

Predictably, Collin Sexton, Darius Garland, and Kevin Porter Jr. have gone through a lot of growing pains since they joined the league, and as a result, the Cavs’ record has reflected that, with 19 wins (in 82 games in 2018-19 and 65 games in 2019-20) each year, among the worst in the league.

Since both Sexton and Garland were so young, Altman was banking on potential, and that’s not totally a bad thing.

This year though, it may be the time to step back from that theory. One national writer suggested the wine and gold try to hit a double in this draft instead of going for a home run, and that’s a sentiment we agree with.

That’s why we wouldn’t mind getting Obi Toppin from Dayton, which many mock drafts have the Cavaliers taking.

Saying Toppin is a “double” isn’t an insult, because after all, he was the college player of the year last season. But in recent years, the NBA draft has become an exercise in trying to project the play of young men basically a year out of high school.

Toppin is not that. He’s 22 years old.

To us, being able to put the ball in the basket is the great equalizer in hoops, and Toppin can do that, averaging 20 points a game at Dayton, shooting 68.8% from inside the three point line, and shooting 41.7% from beyond the arc.

If you can score, a lot of bad things can happen during a possession, but if you get the ball to the scorer and he puts the ball through the hoop, the result is the same as if you executed perfectly.

The scouting report on Toppin says he has good shooting fundamentals, a high release point, and can be effective in the pick and roll as well as a spot up shooter. All of those things are in the plus column.

He also has a good basketball IQ and is not a selfish player. Again, those are great traits to have on the court.

The supposed weakness for the 6’9″, 220 pound forward is defense. We don’t think this is a big deal, and here’s why.

First, the late, great John Wooden once said the same skills that make a player good offensively translate to the defensive end. And he has demonstrated that he is a good offensive player.

Second, in the NBA, there is a difference between someone who competes on the defensive end, and a player who doesn’t care or want to play on that end of the court. If Toppin has the desire to play defense, even if he isn’t quick laterally, he can do an acceptable job defensively.

Smart coaching staffs know how to hide players who don’t have the tools to be lockdown defenders, but show the “want to” when the other team has the ball.

We know the tendency is recent years for NBA teams is to take athleticism and hope they develop into basketball players. To us, Toppin is already a basketball player.

The “let’s keep tanking” people will disagree, but it’s time for the Cavaliers to start showing some progress in the win/loss column. We think drafting Obi Toppin can aid in the start of that progress.

Season Continues Or No, Altman Has Key Decisions This Summer

With the season suspended due to COVID-19, the league that shutdown first, the NBA, is wondering what they should do when play can begin again.

While they would probably want to play some regular season games, at least to get players and teams in somewhat of a routine before the playoffs start, we believe the league should go right into the post-season.

In the Eastern Conference, there is a 5-1/2 game gap between 8th seed Orlando and the team with the ninth best record, the Washington Wizards.

In the West, the separation is 3-1/2 game between Memphis, who currently holds the final playoff spot and Portland.

With most teams having only 17-18 games remaining, it is doubtful any team currently qualifying for the post-season would drop off.  Yes, we understand it is mathematically possible, not in reality, not likely.

If that is the way the NBA goes forward, then the Cavaliers have the second worst record in the NBA, and by rules, would have a 14% chance at the first pick (the highest odds along with Golden State and Minnesota), and could not fall lower than the 6th overall pick.

According to NBADraft.Net, the top six players right now are as follows–

Anthony Edwards, Georgia  6’5″ Guard
LaMelo Ball, 6’8″ Point Guard
James Wiseman, Memphis (sort of) 7’1″ Center
Obi Toppin, Dayton 6’9″ Forward
Cole Anthony, North Carolina 6’2″ Guard
Jaden McDaniels, Washington 6’10” Forward

Who should Cavs’ GM Koby Altman select?

That really depends on what decisions the team makes regarding the talent currently on the roster.  Can Collin Sexton and Darius Garland play together?  Making that decision is probably the key to everything else.

Our opinion is they can’t, and not because of any flaw in either player’s game.  It’s because it is tough to be effective defensively, even in today’s NBA playing two guards under 6’3″.

And yes, we understand Portland has had some success, but to us, that’s the outlier not the norm.

And don’t forget the most impressive rookie for Cleveland this season, Kevin Porter Jr. and Dylan Windler, who hasn’t played all year.

What we mean is this…if you get the first overall pick, the Cavs really can’t take Edwards, Ball, or Anthony without moving either Garland or Sexton.  We are not saying they don’t know that, but obviously you would get a decent piece for either player if they are dealt.

Obviously, the best fits for the wine and gold would be the big men, Wiseman, Toppin, and McDaniels.  The one who figures to help most immediately would be Toppin, who played two years as a Flyer, and is 22 years old.

He would seem to be able to step in at small forward, moving Cedi Osman either to a true swingman, coming off the bench to play both guard and forward, or to the starting #2 guard spot.

Toppin doesn’t have a comparable player on the site, but Wiseman, just 19, is more of a true center (compare to Hassan Whiteside/DeAndre Jordan).  If you select him, then Andre Drummond is likely gone after next season.

McDaniels, while talented, looks to be a project, weighing just 185 pounds.  He will need to add weight and muscle to be more than a bench player in his rookie season.  And you never know how big men with slight builds develop as NBA players.

Do they become Chris Bosh or Marquise Chriss?

This is a rather large off-season for Altman because of the decisions he has to make with his young backcourt.  He has three first round picks from the last two draft who are ideally guards, and only two can play.

And it is difficult to ask young guys to come off the bench in 6th man roles.  Sexton, Garland, Porter…which two are wearing wine and gold next season?

MW