All Year, It’s Been Out With The Old, In With The New For Guards

There is a clear organizational philosophy change in terms of player development with the Cleveland Guardians. It’s been evident for much of the season, but fans were reminded of it again in the past few days.

Since the beginning of the year, the team has cut ties with several players who have been around for a long time, and maybe, just maybe, the lack of success those players have had in other places has emboldened the team to keep making these moves.

First, on Opening Day, the Guards traded Bradley Zimmer to Toronto, basically opening up a spot for Steven Kwan.

Zimmer has continued his struggles up north, going 8 for 71 with two homers, and 31 strikeouts against five walks for the season.

The next to go was Bobby Bradley, a power hitter with contact issues. Bradley went unclaimed after being designated for assignment and is currently playing at AAA Columbus, where he is hitting .186 with five dingers and a 632 OPS. His contact issues have continued in the minors as well.

Yu Chang might be the ultimate test because he went to Pittsburgh on waivers, went 7 for 42 there with a home run, was released and picked up by Tampa Bay, where to date he has gone 2 for 7, albeit with three strikeouts.

We say Tampa is the test case, because they have some kind of voodoo magic with players like Chang. If they can’t find a way to use him so he can be a productive big-league player, there isn’t an organization out there who can.

Oscar Mercado was DFA’d, claimed by the Phillies, suffered the same fate there, and came back to Cleveland.

On Friday, the Guardians brought up Nolan Jones, formerly their top prospect, but a player who fell down those lists after an injury plagued poor season last year.

He changed his stance over the winter and was hitting .311 with a 917 OPS at AAA when he was recalled, and in the four games he played at the major league level, he certainly made an impact, knocking in a run in his debut, homering on Saturday, and driving in two more runs last night.

Prior to last night’s contest, the organization decided to designate Mercado again in favor of 27-year-old Alex Call, who was having a good year at Columbus, hitting .281 with 11 homers, and his strikeout to walk ratio, once very high on the swing and miss side, was even.

His first year in the Cleveland organization, 2019, after coming over from the White Sox in a trade for Yonder Alonzo, he fanned 93 times at Akron against 22 walks.

Clearly, the organization has decided to stop looking at the same players over and over again and are willing to look at players who are succeeding in the highest level of the minor leagues.

We are sure part of this is based on having to make decisions on the 40-man roster this winter, but it is refreshing, nonetheless. With Oscar Gonzalez on the injured list, we are sure Call will get some at bats for the Guardians.

The more success players like Kwan, Gonzalez, and Jones have, the more confident the organization will be in giving more young players a chance.

Maybe, they will use the same theory in regard to the bullpen…

Guards’ Roster Problems Aren’t Simple

It was a lost weekend for the Guardians, but they did have a chance to win two of the games against Boston, and let’s face it, the Red Sox are red hot right now.

There seems to be an ongoing discussion among Guards’ fans about the bottom of the team’s 26 man roster, but in looking closely at the situation, it’s not as easy as it seems to be.

From the position player standpoint, the last man on the bench (that’s not being pejorative, by the way) would seem to be Ernie Clement, who can probably play all four infield spots and has been used in left field by Terry Francona as well.

The problem would seem to be that Clement is being used as a platoon player, in the lineup whenever a southpaw is on the hill for the opposition. And it’s a problem because Clement doesn’t profile as this type of player.

In 98 career at bats vs. lefties, Clement has a .204 batting average and a 563 OPS. So, putting him in there instead of Andres Gimenez or Steven Kwan doesn’t really help you offensively.

However, even though the Guardians have a deep farm system, they really don’t have an alternative to Clement. Why? Because of his limited role as a utility man.

We are sure the front office want Tyler Freeman, Nolan Jones, and Gabriel Arias to play everyday at Columbus rather than getting sparing at bats at the big league level. And that makes total sense to us.

The only real solution we can think of is using Owen Miller more at 3B to give Jose Ramirez a day that he doesn’t have to play in the field. Francona could use Franmil Reyes in the outfield say, two days a week, therefore creating a chance to use either Ramirez or Josh Naylor at DH.

When Clement plays, he simply has to swing the bat better. He’s always been a patient hitter in the minors, with a 84/106 walk to strikeout ratio. In the bigs, he’s fanned 37 times against 14 walks. That would seem what he needs to do now in the majors.

The same roster problem exists with the last spot out of the bullpen. Since Nick Sandlin was sent down to find the strike zone (he hasn’t so far), the Guardians have used Anthony Castro, Yohan Ramirez, and Tanner Tully to try and protect the rest of the relief corps.

Tully was designated for assignment yesterday in favor of Ian Gibaut, who likely will get the same treatment today prior to the doubleheader.

The only other options currently on the 40 man roster are Kirk McCarty and Tobias Myers. McCarty didn’t fool anyone when he made a couple of brief appearance with Cleveland, and Myers isn’t pitching well at AAA.

The difference between this job opening and the utility spot is if a pitcher comes up and pitches well, he very well could stay on the roster for a while.

The point is sometimes it’s not as easy as just sending someone down, you also have to have someone ready to take that player’s role. And at times, especially for a bench player, you don’t want to use a prospect that needs to play.

No One At Columbus Is Grabbing The Opportunity With Tribe

We feel it is well established by now that the Cleveland Indians are offensively challenged. They rank 11th in the American League in runs scored per game at 3.92, almost a half run below the league average of 4.37.

They are second last in on base percentage, 11th in slugging percentage, and 13th in OPS, ahead of just the Tigers and Mariners.

The pitching staff has dropped to 5th in ERA, springing a few leaks as Zach Plesac went down with an injury and whoever has pitched in the 4th and 5th spots in the rotation have not been effective.

We have pointed out the team has just two hitters over 800 in OPS, Jose Ramirez and Franmil Reyes, and the latter is out for perhaps two months with an oblique strain.

What maybe even worse is that Terry Francona and his staff have given 11 hitters with an OPS under 700 (the league average is 709 over 50 plate appearances.

We have complained and wondered why some of those players keep getting opportunities. Some of them haven’t performed up to league average for over two seasons.

There is a simple and yet, troubling reason why the front office hasn’t made a lot of changes. There isn’t exactly anyone at AAA Columbus who is banging down the door to get a big league shot.

Obviously, Owen Miller earned a shot by hitting .406 in 64 at bats, and yet he has struggled with the Tribe, getting just four hits in 32 at bats (.125).

Bradley Zimmer received the call last week, and after a tough start to the season, had rebounded to hit .267 with a 780 OPS. He has fanned 26 times in 75 appearances at the dish, but his defense and speed are tools needed for the big club.

Daniel Johnson was thought to be the closest to be ready at AAA to open the season, but he entered play on Monday batting just .197 and striking out 33 times in 87 plate appearances. He has walked 10 times and has a 720 OPS.

The Tribe’s #1 position prospect, Nolan Jones, has had problems in his first taste of AAA action. He’s hitting just .189 with a single home run thus far, and although he leads the Clippers with 16 walks, he too has had contact problems, whiffing a team high 39 times in 91 plate appearances.

Oscar Mercado, who had success with the Tribe in ’19, is hitting .170 with no homers and five runs batted in. His OPS is just 490.

The people’s choice from spring training, slugging first baseman Bobby Bradley, does lead the Clippers in homers with 7 and is tied for the team lead in RBIs with 17. He’s also hitting just .170 with only seven walks and still is having contact issues, fanning 30 times in 94 times at the plate.

The best hitter (besides Miller) at Columbus is 33-year-old veteran catcher Ryan Lavarnway, who is hitting .283 with six dingers and a 955 OPS. Young infielder Ernie Clement, only 25, has missed some time with injuries, but is hitting .353 with 7 doubles in 34 at bats. He was the 27th man in Sunday’s doubleheader, so is he getting close to a shot in the bigs?

Without alternatives in AAA, it is tough to move on from the players who have been with the team all season, even though they aren’t producing.

If someone could emerge in the minor leagues soon, there are opportunities awaiting them in Cleveland. Our bet is the front office is waiting for the same thing.

Looking At A Possible 50 Man Roster For The Tribe.

There has been a lot of discussion of what rosters for major league baseball teams will look like if a season gets underway in early July.

The most common model has been a 50 man pool in which each team can choose from, and a 30 player active roster for each game.

If that is the case, how do the Cleveland Indians make up the 50 players who will be eligible for this season?

You would presume the normal 40 man roster would be part of this equation, but in looking at the Tribe’s situation, that would mean you would have to make room for a third catcher (neither Beau Taylor or Cameron Rupp are currently on the 40 man), and neither is utility man Mike Freeman.

Another possible hurdle for the Indians is that only one of their Top 10 Prospects, RHP Triston McKenzie, is currently on the 40 man roster. So, if the extra ten spots were being used for prospects, nine of them are already filled.

There is some normal jostling of the 40 man roster coming out of spring training anyway, so some of these moves would have had to be made anyway. For example, Freeman would have probably made the team anyway, necessitating a move to the 40 man roster.

Does this mean the Indians will take the remaining nine top prospects, plus a third catcher as the ten extra men who can travel with the squad this season?

The Tribe’s prospect list is very young, so while they would love for those players not to miss a year of development, the only players who might be able to help the big league team this season are Nolan Jones and Tyler Freeman, and the latter has never played above the high A level.

Of prospects #11-#20 (we are using Baseball America’s list), many of those players are on the 40 man roster already: #11 Logan Allen, #12 Bobby Bradley, #13 Scott Moss, #15 Emmanuel Clase, #16 James Karinchak, and #17 Sam Hentges.

Karinchak figured to make the Opening Day roster anyway.

That would seem to leave these players needing a place to develop in 2020: #14 RHP Carlos Vargas (highest level Mahoning Valley), #18 RHP Luis Oviedo (Lake County), #19 SS Yordys Valdes (Arizona Rookie League), and #20 SS Angel Martinez (Dominican Rookie League).

We would think most big league club will have extended spring training going for these younger players with intrasquad games to provide competition.

Since the Indians share their Goodyear, Arizona facility with the Reds, our guess is those two organizations’ prospects will be very familiar with each other by the end of the summer.

The Indians could make more room on the proposed 50 man squad by sending some of their younger players in the top ten to their complex as well.

We are talking about players like last year’s first round pick RHP Daniel Espino (#6), RHP Ethan Hankins (#8), SS Gabriel Rodriguez (#10) and perhaps even OF George Valera (#4), SS Brayan Rocchio (#5), and 2B Aaron Brocho (#9).

The key there is will the sport allow these younger players to have access to the spring training facilities. Although if there is a season, we don’t see why that would not be allowed.

Usually, you can look at the 40 man roster, and see some candidates to be let go, but we don’t believe the Indians have players like that who could sneak through waivers and remain part of the organization.

Maybe a player like RHP Jean Carlos Mejia, who at 23 has never pitched above the High Class A level, but the other candidates would be INF Christian Arroyo, who the Indians traded for a year ago and was a top prospect beset by injuries, Yu Chang, or players like Greg Allen and/or Bradley Zimmer, and it would be a shock if the organization moved on from them.

If the players and owners can agree to a system that works for this year, it will certainly be different from the norm, but the strategy of organizations will be interesting.

How the Indians react will no doubt be discussed at large when the decisions are made.

Tribe’s Window Still Tied To Lindor.

There are rumblings that Major League Baseball could get underway in late June/early July with a new three ten team division set up and a truncated season.

That would be music to the ears of all baseball fans and provide at least some sense of normality this summer.

Matt Loede asked if any Cleveland sports team was close to winning a championship, and our reply was the Indians were closest, but the Browns had a bigger window.

The Tribe’s immediate opening is tied to their shortstop Francisco Lindor, in our opinion.

With Lindor here this season, and perhaps next, the Indians have a chance to win. Along with Jose Ramirez, Cleveland has a pair of the top position players in the game, along with a solid young starting pitching staff.

Shane Bieber and Mike Clevinger should form a top of the rotation that is the envy of most teams in the majors, and if Carlos Carrasco is healthy, we already know he is capable of being one of the top ten starting pitchers in the game.

That’s a pretty good base to start with.

Among the position players, Franmil Reyes seems poised to have a monster season at the plate providing big time power in the middle of the lineup, and Carlos Santana is coming off his best season, but has turned 34 years old.

Cleveland values defense behind the plate, and they have that in Roberto Perez and Sandy Leon.

However, without Lindor, and Santana aging, you can see holes popping up in the everyday lineup.

Yes, you would still have Ramirez and Reyes, but then what?

The farm system is loaded, but that strength is located in the lower rungs of the system. Top prospect Nolan Jones would have seen some time at Columbus this season, and #2 prospect Tyler Freeman would have been at Akron, but the rest of the top ten position players, save for DH Bobby Bradley, haven’t played above the low Class A level, meaning they are a few years away.

As for the pitching, Carrasco would be 34 when 2022 (the year Lindor is a free agent) hits. While fans like the potential of young starters Zach Plesac and Aaron Civale, the reality is both have pitched less than one year in the big leagues.

They also have Logan Allen and Scott Moss (acquired in the Trevor Bauer deal last July), who will likely have started in AAA in 2020.

We also know that pitching is very volatile, and outside of Bieber, Clevinger, and Carrasco, none of the youngsters have any kind of track record.

As for the bullpen, we’ve seen how shaky that can be with Emmanuel Clase being suspended for 80 games whenever baseball resumes play.

With Lindor, the Indians have a solid base and can fill in at other spots in the lineup with players like Oscar Mercado, Jordan Luplow, Jake Bauers, and Tyler Naquin.

However, let’s look at where the Tribe will be in ’22. Lindor could be gone (yes, we are taking a foolishly optimistic view), and Santana can’t be counted on at age 36.

Can you have a contending team with two proven bats, Ramirez and Reyes? Perhaps one of the aforementioned players can step up to join them, or maybe Jones and Tyler Freeman becomes the next great rookie talents.

Same with the pitching staff, can Plesac and Civale follow the success of Bieber and Clevinger?

If baseball is played this season, perhaps by the end of that season, we will have a better idea as to how long the Indians’ window of contention can remain open.

Until then, the window is tied to Lindor. We would love to see all of the prospects emerge as stars, but the reality says that is unlikely to happen.