Guardians Hanging In With The Lack Of A Bench

The Cleveland Guardians just keep pushing forward. Last week, they started a very difficult stretch playing ten straight games against three of baseball’s best/hottest teams.

One of the games in Minnesota was rained out, but the Guards split there and then went to Detroit and took three of four from the first place Tigers. They had dropped to fourth place after losing the first game in the Twin Cities and fell six games out of first.

Now, they are in second place, five off the pace set by Detroit. They held the Tigers, the second highest scoring team in the American League to just 11 runs in the four-game set, allowing just one run in the first two contests.

Manager Steven Vogt is doing it with a roster that contains very little depth. Using WAR (wins above replacement), the Guardians have three positions, shortstop, centerfield, and rightfield that rank in the bottom two among all AL teams.

And for the mathematically challenged, that’s one-third of your daily lineup.

To be fair, they also have three spots (LF, 2B, and 3B) that rank in the top four of all teams in the Junior Circuit but imagine if Vogt was getting any kind of production from short and two of the outfield spots. No doubt, his job would be much easier.

The league average OPS is 705. Currently, the Guardians have five players on the roster with figures 100 points less than that: Nolan Jones (552), Jhonkensy Noel (408), Lane Thomas (305), Austin Hedges (538), and Will Wilson (564).

Thomas is just coming back off the injured list and his figure should get better with more at bats, but the problem with this it has to be difficult for Vogt to give players a day off.

We know this wasn’t intended by the skipper to phone in Sunday’s game against the Tigers, but the Guardians did win the first three games of the series and Tarik Skubal, the reigning Cy Young Award winner was going for Detroit.

Vogt used that game to give many of his veteran players, save for Jose Ramirez, a needed day off.

The result was a 2-hit shutout with 13 whiffs for Skubal against a lineup that had just two hitters over league average in OPS–Ramirez and Kyle Manzardo.

You could have predicted the outcome before the game and in fact, many on social media did just that.

We would guess very soon that David Fry will be activated from his rehab assignment, and we would guess he would replace Noel on the 26-man roster. However, Fry can only DH right now, which paints Vogt into another corner. His current DH, Manzardo, leads the Guards in homers (10) and RBIs (28).

He’s also second on the team in walks with 21.

If you play Manzardo at first base, then you have to sit Carlos Santana, who leads the team in walks. Either way, you are sitting one of the productive hitters you have.

Could you put one of them in the outfield? Well, Manzardo has never played the outfield since turning professional and the last time Santana played there was 2022 when he played an inning in RF for Seattle.

Again, this situation shines a spotlight on the weird off-season by the Guardians’ front office. There were veteran free agent outfielders on the market, but the team wasn’t interested. Apparently, they felt what they had in the minors would take care of the problem.

Remember, they also traded for Nolan Jones right before the season opened. How has that worked out?

Vogt is operating with no bench right now. He’s done a solid job getting his regulars some rest and spotting at bats for the non-producing players. You have to wonder, how long can he do that?

A Different Opening Trip For Guardians Compared To 2024

It’s Opening Day in Cleveland and that’s a certain sign of spring, despite today’s weather forecast. However, the Guardians aren’t coming home with momentum like they did last season in manager Steven Vogt’s first season.

Because of the renovations to Progressive Field, the Guards spent the first nine contests on the road in 2024 and starting hot, arriving in town with a 7-2 record, in route to a 19-10 mark at the end of April.

This season hasn’t been the same. Cleveland won the season opening series at Kansas City, taking two of three, but the west coast was not kind to the team, as they dropped five out of six in San Diego and Los Angeles against the Angels.

Until Luis Ortiz went six innings in the last game of the trip, no starting pitcher completed that many innings on the sojourn. All in all, Cleveland pitching has the second worst ERA in the American League at 5.09 and is tied for second in allowing the most home runs, giving up 14 gopher balls.

The defense has also been a concern, leading the AL in errors to date. Jose Ramirez has made four errors, mostly not coming up with ground balls. Cleveland pitchers have already allowed eight unearned runs, so the mistakes have been costly.

The baserunning hasn’t been crisp either. The Guardians picked up their first stolen bases of the season on Sunday, their ninth game. They’ve been caught four times. And we’ve seen Gabriel Arias thrown out at third in San Diego with men on first and second and no one out, and Brayan Rocchio allowing himself to get tagged out on a double steal attempt with Steven Kwan at the plate.

The latter also should be filed in the curious managing file.

These kinds of mistakes make us wonder if training camp was a little less focused this season coming off winning the AL Central last year.

Offensively, the Guardians are ninth in runs scored, but averaging only 3.78 per game. To be fair, the league average of 4.37 is bloated by the Yankees and Red Sox’ figures, but outside of Kyle Manzardo, no relatively young player has stepped up.

Against the Royals, Guardians’ hitters fanned 18 times and drew 16 walks. In the last six games, Cleveland hitters have struck out 59 times with the same number of bases on balls in twice the amount of games.

Rightfield continues to be a problem as Nolan Jones and Jhonkensy Noel have combined to go 4 for 38 with 13 punchouts and just three walks and only two RBI, both coming on outs.

Lane Thomas has also struggled at the dish, getting off to a 5 for 29 start that includes just one extra base hit. The bench group of Daniel Schneemann, Johnathan Rodriguez, and Austin Hedges have combined to go 2 for 22 in the young season.

Having young players in part-time roles in tough on them, as it is hard to produce with sporadic at bats. That’s an excuse for Rodriguez. It is more than likely that Schneemann will be a utility guy for his career, so he needs to hit when he’s in the lineup.

Look, it is still early. In fact, it is very early. Our concern is we aren’t seeing the crisp baseball we saw a year ago. And we haven’t even talked about how the bullpen has struggled so far.

Guardians Make A Weird Deal

The Cleveland Guardians had an inordinate number of versatile players on the roster and thinned that herd by one over the weekend when they traded Tyler Freeman to Colorado for Nolan Jones.

If you are a regular reader of this site, you know we have advocated for Freeman many times because of his minor league pedigree. However, it hasn’t translated to success in the majors. In 560 big league at bats, he batted just .223 with a 632 OPS.

Jones was with the Guardians in 2022 and was Cleveland’s second round draft pick in 2016. When he was called up in July of ’22, he was impressive, batting .286 with an 857 OPS in 18 games. He was patient, drawing eight walks to go with 17 strikeouts and had six extra base hits.

In August, it was a different story. Jones went 5 for 30 with 14 punchouts and didn’t draw a walk. He was traded to the Rockies for Juan Brito, who had a shot at the second base job this spring training.

Apparently, this convinced the Guardians’ front office he wasn’t capable of holding down a starting job.

Jones had an excellent season in 2023 for the Rockies, hitting 20 homers and stealing 20 bases with a 931 OPS. He did strikeout a lot, almost at a 30% rate and had a .389 on base percentage. But his home and road splits, always a factor for a hitter in Colorado, were pretty much the same.

Last year, he battled knee and back injuries, and his numbers fell off greatly with just a 641 OPS and 91 whiffs in 297 plate appearances.

So, the question is, which player are the Guardians getting? If spring training is any indication (and it usually isn’t), it’s the latter. Jones is 11 for 47 with no homers and 14 strikeouts in exhibition play to date.

But the trade also makes us wonder what the Guardians’ philosophy is in terms of hitting. For many years, they looked for players who made contact figuring they could teach them how to drive the ball. The biggest success stories in this regard are Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez.

However, they appear to be embracing two players in Jones and Gabriel Arias who have power, but also a lot of swing and miss in their games. We can add Jhonkensy Noel in that group as well.

We had someone comment to you that a platoon of Jones and Noel in rightfield could result in over 200 strikeouts. And for those who will say we are anti-strikeout, we say we can live with them if there are walks and production to go with it.

Jim Thome struck out a lot, the second most all-time, but he hit over 600 homers and had a career .402 on base percentage. We know he’s a Hall of Famer and that his number are extreme. Travis Hafner was another hitter who fanned a bunch but was a very productive hitter.

Another thing that troubles us about Jones is the back issues. He’s only 27-years-old and a back problem at that age is a bit of a red flag.

It is also interesting that the Guardians are looking for a power bat, particularly from the left side. It seems to us they had one and traded Josh Naylor because they didn’t want to pay him this season.

Jones does have a cannon for an arm, so the defense in probably better with him in that spot.

Hopefully, Nolan Jones returns to his 2023 form, a solid power and speed combination. If the ’24 version is the true Jones, then they are still waiting for a decent option in RF.

Reviewing Cleveland’s Prospects From Five Years Ago

We believe that the basis for having a good organization in major league baseball is to have a very good player development program. Especially if you are a smaller market team.

Although we think every major league team could spend tons of money on players (after all, they are all millionaires or billionaires), many teams have a philosophy of not spending, a lot of them because the bang isn’t worth the buck.

For every Corey Seager or Marcus Semien from the newly crowned world champion Texas Rangers that works out, you have a Javier Baez or Jason Heyward.

However, in building a farm system, fans need to understand that the payoff rate for prospects is also not good.

We like to do this every winter, but let’s take a look at the Guardians’ farm system from 2018, five years ago. A system that ranked in the middle of the pack among major league teams, at #15.

Who has worked out, who hasn’t. Here is the list from Baseball America:

1). Francisco Mejia
2). Triston McKenzie
3). Bobby Bradley
4). Nolan Jones
5). Shane Bieber
6). Yu Chang
7). Willi Castro
8). Greg Allen
9). George Valera
10). Will Benson

In our books, there is one all-star type player from this list, and that’s Bieber, who won a Cy Young Award in the COVID shortened season of 2020. He’s 60-32 lifetime, made two all star appearances and thrown 200 innings twice. He has had injury issues in two of the last three seasons.

Although we think McKenzie is very good if he can stay healthy, and he was good in the second half of 2021 and in ’22 (11-11, 2.96 ERA), right now, there is concern over his elbow. But, if he can pitch, he’s a very good starting pitcher.

Mejia was the most highly regarded prospect, but we don’t think the organization felt he could be a full time catcher and traded him to San Diego for Brad Hand. In over 1000 big league at bats, he has a 678 OPS (.239/.284/.394). He never reached what was projected for him.

The book is still out on Jones and Benson, both of whom had very good seasons after being traded by Cleveland after the ’22 season. Jones had a 931 OPS for Colorado, but we worry about a strikeout rate that is over 30% in his time in the big leagues.

Benson had an 863 OPS with Cincinnati, but he fanned in 31.3% of his at bats. High strikeout rates don’t bode well for long term success in the majors.

Bradley, Chang, and Allen never found extended success in the majors, and although the latter two played in the bigs last season, neither are on 40 man rosters heading into the winter.

Castro was traded to Detroit, but had his best year with the Twins this season as kind of a super-utility player, playing six positions, and had a 750 OPS with 33 stolen bases.

What was funny to us was that we’ve been talking about Valera for so long. He had an 816 OPS between AA/AAA in 2022, but fell to 718 at Columbus last season, fighting a lot of injuries. He has pop and patience, but the batting average in his minor league career is just .242, but he gets on base 36.3% of the time.

So, out of the top ten, the successes are Bieber, McKenzie, Jones, Benson, and Castro, although the latter three should be re-evaluated at this time next year.

Valera is still a prospect, probably still top ten in the Cleveland system. The other four simply didn’t pan out.

Keep that in mind when you look at the list that will come out this winter.

Guardians Should Heed Peter Brand: “He Gets On Base”

There is a famous scene in the movie “Moneyball” where in a meeting of talent evaluators, GM Billy Beane, played by Brad Pitt, brings up a player and asks the group why he likes that player.

The assistant GM Peter Brand (really Paul DePodesta) played by Jonah Hill replies “he gets on base”.

That is a credo the Cleveland Guardians should use going forward toward 2024.

We all understand the Guardians need power too. They are last in all of baseball with just 106 home runs and rank 13th the American League in slugging percentage. We know they stress contact, striking out the least in the league, but are only 9th in the AL in on base percentage.

If you don’t have power, you better have a lot of guys getting on base. You see, “he gets on base” translates to “he doesn’t make outs”.

The three best Cleveland players to avoid making outs are Jose Ramirez with a .349 on base average, with Josh Naylor at .347, followed by Steven Kwan at .340. The next best player is Bo Naylor at .320.

The two players who joined the Guardians in August, veterans Kole Calhoun and Ramon Laureano are next at .319 and .318 each.

And since the game of baseball is measured by 27 outs, having guys who make a lot of outs is not good in terms of scoring runs.

We aren’t sure the front office thinks getting on base (err, not making outs) is a valuable skill. For exhibit A, we present Yandy Diaz.

Diaz certainly wasn’t the hitter he is today in Tampa (889 OPS), but what he did do here was get on base. He had a .361 OBP in the 88 games he played in Cleveland in 2017-18.

Last season, the Guardians traded two young outfielders, Nolan Jones and Will Benson. Their on base averages in AAA were .388 and .396 respectively. To be fair, they did receive Juan Brito for Jones, and he has a career .393 OBP in the minors to date.

The player they kept instead, Will Brennan, had a .367 OBP at the AAA level. This isn’t to bash Brennan, who seems to have improved after a mid-season slump. But he’s walked 12 times all season, less than Mike Zunino and the same number of times as Calhoun.

By the way, Jones and Benson both have a .367 OBP in the major leagues this season. That number would be the highest on the 2023 Guardians.

What is we told you they have a player on their current roster who got on base at a .393 clip at the AAA level? That player is Tyler Freeman and they can’t find a place for him right now.

We are sure there are other examples, but in 2016, Cleveland had veteran switch-hitter Robbie Grossman in training camp. Grossman has a career mark of getting on base at a .344 clip. Grossman played part of ’16 with Columbus, before being released in May.

He went to Minnesota, where he recorded OBPs of .386, .361, and .367 over the next three seasons.

We think the Cleveland organization is searching for the long ball so much, they are forgetting there are two aspects to offense, and the ability to get on base is one of them. And quite frankly, it’s probably easier to identify and obtain.

Remember this, a player with a 1.000 slugging percentage simply went 1 for 4 with a HR. A game in which a team had a 1.000 OBP would never end.

How Do Young Players Get Time On A Contender? Produce.

The Cleveland Guardians have a conundrum when it comes to playing young players. While conventional wisdom would say you need to give guys coming up from the minor leagues time to fail first, when you are still in a competitive situation, that luxury isn’t there.

We have heard the refrain before and still hear it when it comes to players like Nolan Jones and Will Benson, although the reasons for trading both of those guys were related to the 40-man roster.

The latest young Guardians’ player that engenders this debate is Gabriel Arias. Arias came over to the organization in the massive haul that was the Mike Clevinger deal from the Padres and was rated as a Top 100 Prospect by both Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus

Arias is a defensive wizard. He is a shortstop by trade, but has shown the versatility to play other positions very well. He played first base in the playoffs a year ago and has been playing quite a bit of right field this season.

However, he’s never been an elite hitter. His career OPS at the AAA level is 768, mostly because he has had issues controlling the strike zone with 188 strikeouts and 64 walks in 806 plate appearances. His OPS for his minor league career is 735.

Those issues have carried with him in the big leagues, where this year he is hitting .187 with a 606 OPS, and 50 punchouts in 154 times at the dish.

By contrast, Tyler Freeman has a career OPS in the minors of 813, carrying a .312 batting average and a 785 OPS in AAA. His credentials say he’s a better hitter than Arias.

Arias started getting some regular playing time starting May 16th and hit home runs in starts on May 18th and 19th, in the latter game it was a dinger which gave the Guardians the lead in extra innings vs. the Mets.

From May 18th through June 3rd, a span of 15 games, Arias went 12 for 40, a .300 batting average with eight walks and eight strikeouts. That’s promising.

From June 4th through today, Arias has received 34 at bats and recorded just three hits (.088) with six walks and 12 whiffs.

As we said earlier, if the Guardians were the Oakland A’s or Kansas City Royals, they could just ride out Arias’ (or any young player’s) cold streaks and hope they come out better for it. They just don’t have that option right now.

A team in contention for a playoff spot needs players who can contribute when called upon. Is that fair? No, it isn’t and frankly, we believe the Guardians’ brass would agree with that.

And make no mistake, with Jose Ramirez still in his prime, the front office should be feeling pressure to win and win now.

Two other young players, Tyler Freeman and David Fry, haven’t had nearly the opportunity afforded Arias, who the organization was trying to create ways to get at bats, but they’ve produced when called upon.

Freeman has only had more than one at bat in consecutive days twice this season, but he’s hit .290 in 62 at bats. Fry has only had more than one at bat two days in a row once but has contributed a big three run HR vs. San Diego and two game winning hits (June 24th vs. Milwaukee and Tuesday night vs. the Braves).

And Fry strikes out a lot too, fanning 13 times in 44 plate appearances.

So we ask, if you were Terry Francona, who would you play when an opportunity arises? That’s what trying to get young players at bats while contending looks like.

Too Early To Make Judgments On Ex-Cleveland Players

In the new world we live in, especially related to how sports is covered around the nation, a lot of what people see is highlights, a flash of what really happens. In baseball, most times it is the big hit that influences the game the most.

And of course, the biggest of those types of batting achievements is the walk off hit.

Recently, former Cleveland players Will Benson, now with Cincinnati, and Nolan Jones, currently with Colorado, delivered those hits for their teams. And naturally, the Guards’ fans went crazy wondering why the team dealt those players away.

We think most of this angst comes from the trade of Yandy Diaz following the 2018 season. Diaz didn’t hit for much power with Cleveland (just a .366 slugging percentage), but did get on base to the tune of a .361 on base average.

And Diaz did hit .312 in 39 games with the team in 2018. The Cleveland front office then made a bad deal, sending him and Edwin Encarnacion (salary dump) in a three team deal for basically Jake Bauers and Carlos Santana.

With the Rays, Diaz has an 814 OPS, a .378 on base percentage, and even though he hit just one homer with Cleveland in 299 plate appearances, he has 50 dingers in four plus seasons with Tampa.

And this season, he has emerged as an MVP candidate, with a .405 OBP and 953 OPS.

However, that doesn’t mean all players the Guardians cut ties with will do the same. Take Jones, for example. Cleveland moved him in order to protect some minor league players from the Rule 5 Draft.

In the organization’s eyes, Will Brennan had surpassed Jones, and after a fast start when he was called up, after the all-star break, he batted .203 with a 535 OPS albeit in 59 at bats.

And what may be worse in the Guardians’ view, he struck out 22 times vs. two walks. Keep in mind, the Guards want players who make contact first, and then will teach them to drive the ball. We get it, sometimes that doesn’t work.

With the Rockies, Jones has 18 hits in his first 54 at-bats with four homers. That’s impressive. He’s also fanned 19 times vs. five walks. It is something that should be tracked as the season goes on.

You know how we feel, if a batter cannot control the strike zone, it’s a matter of time before pitchers will exploit that. In the meantime, 50 at bats isn’t nearly enough to say Jones is the next Ted Williams.

By the way, the player Cleveland received for Jones, Juan Brito is just 21 years old and has an 858 OPS between Lake County and Akron this season. He’s walked 34 times vs. 29 whiffs.

Benson was in the same boat as Jones, Cleveland needed to clear spots on the 40-man roster, so he was traded to the Reds. He had a late season trial with the Guardians getting 61 plate appearances, hitting .182 (10 for 55) with just one extra base hit.

He struck out in 19 at bats, walking just three times.

With the Reds this season, he is 15 for 64 (.234) with three extra base hits and has fanned 20 times vs. six walks.

Also, keep in mind, both Jones and Benson are playing in notoriously friendly hitters parks.

Both Jones and Benson have less than 100 plate appearances for their new teams to date, so perhaps people should save their judgment for later in the season.

Maybe they will be Yandy Diaz or maybe they will wind up being just what the Cleveland front office thought. Let’s let it play out before we condemn anyone.

Evaluating Minor Leaguers Isn’t An Exact Science

The late, great Cleveland sports talk host Pete Franklin used to say something similar to this about minor league baseball players–until proven otherwise, prospects should be considered suspects.

The meaning being no matter how good a player performs in the minors, the big leagues are different.

Former Rockies’ and Pirates’ manager Clint Hurdle was on the cover of Sports Illustrated as baseball’s newest phenom after hitting .328 with 16 homers (978 OPS) at AAA in 1977. He wound up playing just 515 games in the majors, hitting .259 with 32 dingers (745 OPS).

Gregg Jefferies was another phenom after hitting .367 in AA with 20 homers in the Mets’ organization (1021 OPS). He wound up playing parts of 14 years in the majors, and made two All Star teams, but he never became the superstar he was projected to be.

More recently, the top prospect in baseball in 2013 was Texas’ Jurickson Profar after he hit .281 (820 OPS) at age 19 in AA as a shortstop. Profar is still in the big leagues, but has a career .237 batting average (709 OPS) and is currently a LF for the Padres.

No doubt the ranking of minor league prospects has become more sophisticated in recent years. Among the current players who were named the sports’ best are Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Adley Rutchman, Wander Franco, and Bobby Witt Jr.

However, here are two players who were considered top five prospects in all of baseball who are struggling. They may get everything to click at some point, but right now, they haven’t fulfilled what others thought they could accomplish.

Detroit took Spencer Torkelson with the first pick in the 2020 draft, and to date, in 264 at bats, he’s hit five homers and batted .197. He’s back in AAA with a .228 batting average and coincidentally, five long balls.

The Angels’ Jo Adell was a consensus top five prospect after hitting .289 with 23 home runs in AAA at age 22. To date, the majors have been a much bigger challenge, with a .215 batting average and 13 dingers in almost 500 plate appearances.

Why do we bring this up? Because he see various comments from Guardians’ fans pining for the youngest team in the sport to bring up even more rookies.

Complicating the matter is the Guards being in contention for the playoffs. If they were on pace to lose 90+ games, it would be a no-brainer to bring guys up and play them. So when Nolan Jones goes two weeks doing nothing at the plate, Terry Francona can’t afford to be patient.

And nothing causes a manager to lose the trust of his players than putting someone out on the field who doesn’t deserve to be there.

Also, just because someone is highly touted as a prospect doesn’t mean they will be better players at the big league level than the person currently at that spot.

For example, we think Brayan Rocchio is going to be a very good big league shortstop. However, to say he is better than Amed Rosario right now is crazy. He might be, but no one should be stating that as a fact.

We are sure Tigers’ and Angels’ supporters were saying the same thing about Torkelson and Adell not so long ago.

Tough Spot For Guardians’ Newest Rookies

The Cleveland Guardians started the season using Steven Kwan in left field and Andres Gimenez at second base, and by the end of the first weekend were using Owen Miller everyday as well.

That trio is 24, 23, and 25 years old, respectively.

As the season went on, we saw more young players. Oscar Gonzalez (24) and Richie Palacios (25, and since sent back to AAA) both contributed to the team’s success.

Since the beginning of July, the Guards called up Nolan Jones (24), Will Benson (24), and Tyler Freeman (23) to the big-league roster.

The organization wants to look at these players, but one thing complicates this philosophy: The Guardians are a game ahead of the Minnesota Twins and in first place in the AL Central Division.

There are always ups and downs with young players. Kwan, for example, had a poor May, hitting .173, but he made adjustments and has batted over .300 in each month since.

Miller had a torrid first month of the season and had a decent July, but has struggled otherwise and at this point hasn’t figured out what pitchers are doing to him.

So, Terry Francona is charged with the task of getting the three newest Guardians the playing time they need as young players, while continuing to win ballgames. And that’s not easy.

Right now, it’s tough to write Jones’ name in the lineup, but if he’s on the roster, you have to.

The rightfielder started great going 9 for 27 before the all-star break. Since then, in 61 plate appearances, Jones has hit .203 with one homer, and has fanned 22 times against just two walks.

Right now, he might be too selective, taking a number of fastballs in the strike zone for called third strikes.

It really hasn’t been fair for Benson, who since his call up on August 1st, has only played in 12 games, getting more than one at bat in just seven of them. He’s gone just 3 for 25 and has fanned nine times in 28 times at the dish.

That’s why Gonzalez has become pretty much the everyday guy in right, with Benson and Jones filling in when he DHs and with Benson getting some time in centerfield to give Myles Straw a breather.

Freeman gets into the lineup with Jose Ramirez is the DH and has spelled Amed Rosario a couple times as well. He’s been okay, going 5 for 22 with three walks and getting hit by three pitches. He has struck out just once, true to his minor league numbers, but outside of a ringing double to left a few days ago, he hasn’t been driving the ball.

It just shows why teams don’t like to bring up prospects unless they can get regular playing time and it also shows it is easier to rebuild and develop players when the team isn’t having success.

From now until the end of the season, the Guardians have to find playing time for Jones, Benson, and Freeman, and find it in situations where they have a chance to succeed. That’s not easy.

On the other hand, when these guys do get in the lineup, they have a pressure to perform, and that’s good. While they are playing, they are learning how to win.

That’s what team sports is all about.

Guardians’ Biggest Surprise? Division Is Up For Grabs

Baseball’s unofficial half way point of the season has arrived, and the Cleveland Guardians are just two games out of first place in the American League Central Division.

Is that a surprise? That really depends on how you view it.

We felt the Guardians would finish slightly below the .500 mark this season, projecting them with 79 victories. Since they are 46-44 right now, a mere two games above the break even point, they really cannot be considered shocking.

However, we are surprised they sit just two games out of first place.

What is eye opening is that the favorites coming into the season, the Chicago White Sox, have battled injuries and bad defense and sit at 46-46, a game behind Cleveland and three games behind the division leading Minnesota Twins.

So really, the surprise is the mediocrity of the division, not the Guardians’ record.

Still, the Guards have battled through a number of rainouts and therefore, doubleheaders, and a shift in the organizational philosophy, starting to depend more and more on a healthy farm system to replace non-productive players.

Steven Kwan, who did not have a big league at bat coming into the season, has played in 78 of the team’s 90 games, and has hit .279 with a .361 on base percentage.

Oscar Gonzalez played in 32 games before being injured and another player without MLB experience coming into the season, Richie Palacios, has been in 39 games.

And no doubt, Nolan Jones should be the next rookie to hit the 20 game plateau.

You would think unless some of the younger guys hit a wall, playing an extra 20 games in a season, the Guardians should be better in the second half because of the experience they have gained thus far.

The health of the pitching staff has been good (knock on wood). Only Aaron Civale has been on the injured list to date and he is currently on the shelf. Cleveland has only used eight starters this year, mostly because another rookie, Konnor Pilkington has been slotted in as the doubleheader starter.

He earned that role by being solid when Civale was injured earlier in the season.

However, with Civale out again, and more twin bills coming, the depth of the organization will be tested. We would guess another rook, right-hander Peyton Battenfield might get the next look, unless a trade is made.

Whatever the organizations’ plan was for this season should be adjusted because the division hasn’t played out how most people thought and is very much up for grabs. Even though the Guardians are in some ways conducting tryouts for young players, they are in the mix for a post-season spot.

We aren’t suggested going all in on a rental player, but we are sure the front office will be looking for players who can help now and over the next few seasons.

And remember, Cleveland still has a glut of middle infielders on their 40 man roster, and will need to clear more spots to protect more players coming through what now maybe the best farm system in the sport.

The big surprise is that no one has taken the AL Central Division and ran with it. Cleveland is right there. And maybe it wasn’t in the plans in March or April, but the Guardians are a contender.

Let’s hope the brass thinks they are too.