Anatomy Of Bullpen Usage For The Guardians

When the Cleveland Guardians recent five-game winning streak ended on August 3rd with a 7-4 loss to the Orioles, there were quite a few comments on social media (yes, we know) saying Steven Vogt and his staff didn’t really try to win that game.

That’s because when rookie Joey Cantillo left the game after four innings, trailing 3-2, Vogt went with Pedro Avila to pitch 1.2 innings, and Nick Sandlin for a third of an inning to get the Guardians through six innings.

Still losing at that point, Xzavion Curry came on and after a scoreless seventh, he gave up four runs in the eighth and the game was out of reach.

The social media managers couldn’t fathom why Vogt didn’t use one of his better relievers to keep the score at a one-run deficit.

First of all, we are sure when Vogt went to Curry for the 7th, he wanted him to keep the game right there at 3-2. We are doubly sure Curry did not want to give up runs either because his spot on the roster was tenuous at best.

He’s since been DFA’d and picked up by the Miami Marlins.

But to get to the 7th inning on August 3rd, we need to go back to the previous Sunday, when Vogt used his best relievers to score a series win in Philadelphia, a game which coincidentally, Cantillo also started. It was his first big league start.

Cantillo went 3.1 innings and with Kyle Schwarber, who had already hit two bombs off the rookie, coming up, Vogt went to Cade Smith, who struck him out.

That began a busy week for the bullpen. In the subsequent game, Tanner Bibee went six, and with a 7-0 lead, the skipper used Pedro Avila for 1.1, Scott Barlow for 2/3, and Hunter Gaddis to finish it off.

The only eyebrow raiser there was using Gaddis with a then 8-2 lead.

The following day, Gavin Williams shut out Detroit for five, but used 90 pitches in doing so, meaning the ‘pen had to cover four innings. Tim Herrin, Sandlin, Cade Smith, and Emmanuel Clase finished off the game, which until Cleveland scored in the 8th and 9th, was a 2-0 affair.

Following a day off, Cleveland beat Baltimore 10-3, but it was a 5-2 contest heading into the bottom of the 7th. Ben Lively gave the team six frames, so Vogt used Smith, Herrin, and Sandlin to finish.

The next night, Cleveland won 8-4, but it was 2-1 heading into the 5th, and the manager, clearly not totally confident in Carlos Carrasco, pulled him after 4.1, so again Smith was used for 1.2 IP, followed by Barlow (.1), Avila (.2), Gaddis and Clase (each an inning).

That game was on a Friday night, meaning in a six-game span, Smith pitched four times totaling 4.1 innings, while Barlow, Sandlin, Gaddis, Herrin, and Clase were all used three times.

The Guardians’ starters have had trouble eating innings all season long, and if the team is going to get where it wants to go this season, it is incumbent on Vogt and Carl Willis to take care of the relief corps, the strength of the team.

That means, sometimes, when the Guards are trailing the manager has to have “live to see another day” attitude. That means pitching Avila, Eli Morgan, and perhaps Peter Strzelecki in higher leverage situations.

It’s also those pitchers’ opportunity to earn the skipper’s trust. Smith began the year pitching in lower leverage situations, for example.

It does not mean the manager isn’t trying to win, but these guys aren’t Strat-O-Matic cards, you can’t run them out there every day. There will be a time to do just that. It’s called the playoffs.

Hopefully, all of these relievers will still have something in the tank when October comes around.

Guards Need Bullpen To Be Reliable Now

Lies, damn lies, and statistics. That’s the story of the Cleveland Guardians’ bullpen this season.

On first glance, the Guardians bullpen has good numbers. They rank 6th in the major leagues in ERA at 3.60. They haven’t thrown a ton of innings either, despite claims they have been overworked.

They are 23rd in innings pitched, but even though it seems they’ve allowed a ton of homers this season, they rank 24th in that category.

Now, we understand that teams using “openers” skew numbers a bit.

However, since July 1st it has been a different story. Let’s look at the statistics since that date–

Sam Hentges: 12.1 IP, 13 ER, 9.49 ERA, 5 BB, 13 SO
Eli Morgan: 15.2 IP, 11 ER, 6.32 ERA, 9 BB, 20 SO
Nick Sandlin: 15.1 IP, 8 ER, 4.70 ERA, 6 BB, 22Ks, and 4 home runs allowed
Enyel De Los Santos: 17.1 IP, 6 ER, 3.12 ERA, 6 BB, 16 Ks
Trevor Stephan: 17.1 IP, 7 ER, 3.63 ERA, 4 BB, 17Ks
Emmanuel Clase: 15.2 IP, 8 ER, 4.60 ERA, 3 BB, 16 Ks

De Los Santos has been the best of the group, but he has had two appearances since the first of August where he gave up two runs each.

Stephan’s numbers are pretty good, but he hasn’t been the same guy he was last season when he fanned 82 hitters in 63.2 innings. This year, those numbers are down to 56 punch outs in 52.1 frames.

And if Earl Weaver were still around, Stephan would likely be the new “full pack”, the terms he used to describe reliever Don Stanhouse, who seemed always to be in trouble. Stephan falls behind hitters too often and seems to be working out of trouble constantly.

Until Saturday’s meltdown in Toronto, Clase has been pretty good, although not the dominant pitcher he was a year ago. Before that, he had a 2.10 ERA in 25.2 innings with 30 strikeouts.

Overall though, his number aren’t what they were a year ago. He allowed just 43 hits in 72.2 innings. This season, he’s already given up 52 hits in just 54.1 frames.

One of our tenets of relief pitching is they can’t give up walks and they have to keep the ball in the park.

In the numbers listed above, Morgan and Sandlin have allowed the most walks and Sandlin has the double whammy of not being able to keep the ball in the yard.

During this season, Guardians’ relievers have seemed prone to the home run. Here are the leaders–

Sandlin 8
Stephan 6
Morgan 6
Karinchak 6

Which is why we like Clase in the closer role besides his 100 MPH cutter. He’s allowed just 2 home runs and has only walked 13 hitters.

The walk/home run combo is probably why the Guards haven’t tried Morgan as a late inning reliever, preferring to keep him in the 6th or 7th innings. Same for Sandlin.

Hentges has been the disappointment because the lefty has dominant stuff. He had an ERA of 2.91 after his appearance against the Cubs, when he came in a struck out two in a 1-2-3 10th inning.

He then gave up seven runs in the next three appearances, covering 1.2 innings, and later in the month had a two-game implosion giving up six runs in an inning and a third.

He’s been better lately and the Guardians need him to be.

There is no doubt the Guardians need better hitting, but without a good bullpen, the great job by the starting pitchers goes to waste way too many times.

If Guards Have A Bullpen Opening, Who Takes It?

Every year, Terry Francona gives a talk in spring training to the entire roster, the 40 man and the non-roster invitees. It has been reported (we say that only because we aren’t present) that he always discusses how everyone in the room will be counted on to have a successful season.

As we know, stuff happens every year. At the beginning of camp last year, could we have seen Oscar Gonzalez, Enyel De Los Santos, or Will Brennan being contributors?

Some of us thought Gonzalez could get a shot and that Steven Kwan deserved a shot, but enough of that.

Slumps happen, some players don’t put up the numbers they did in the past, and certainly, injuries always play a role.

Right now, the Guardians’ bullpen is in that state of flux because of injuries.

It was reported earlier in the week that southpaw Sam Hentges has some shoulder inflammation and is “week to week”, which doesn’t sound like he will be ready for Opening Day. That’s a big blow because the big lefty is the only proven piece that throws from the left side.

And De Los Santos and Nick Sandlin, both of whom figured to be in Seattle on March 30th, have not pitched in an exhibition game.

Now, bullpen guys can get ready faster than starting pitchers because they usually work just one inning at a time, so conceivably if they are ready to go by the middle of March, there is a good chance they will not miss any time.

To be fair, closer Emmanuel Clase hasn’t pitched in a game either.

Many people had another left-hander, Tim Herrin, making the 26 man roster to open the year, but with Hentges’ shoulder barking, he seems to be a lock to make the team.

Francona and pitching coach Carl Willis like to use their big-league relievers early in games to get a look at better hitters. On Friday, Herrin pitched the fourth inning.

If Herrin becomes a lock, and the Guards bring 13 pitchers north (or northwest since they open in Seattle), who gets the last spot?

If the staff wants someone who could pitch multiple innings, they could go with someone like Xzavion Curry or Hunter Gattis, both of whom were starters in the minors last season, and by the way, also made some big league starts, each getting a pair with Cleveland.

Both have faced high quality hitters in Arizona (visit Baseballreference.com) and have fared well. Gattis has fanned six in 4-1/3 frames, allowing just one hit, but three walks. Curry has a pair of two inning outings, allowing five hits, but just one run.

Or they could go with Konnor Pilkington who did make 11 starts with the Guards last season, going 1-2 with a 3.88 ERA. His problem was throwing strikes, walking 32 batters in 58 frames.

Another 40-man roster option is recently acquired Jason Bilous, who fanned 131 batters in 105.2 innings in the White Sox’ system last year. He did have a 6.30 ERA between AA and AAA though, as his control has been an issue.

The Guardians seem to view him as a reliever, as he has made two one inning appearances thus far, striking out four and walking a pair.

There is still time for De Los Santos and Sandlin to be ready, but Hentges may not have enough time to get back by the end of the month.

So, Francona and Willis have to sort out some candidates to take his place.

Our Guardians’ Bullpen Confidence

One of the things about the Cleveland Guardians’ bullpen is outside of Emmanuel Clase, the group has kind of been in a state of flux all season.

Clase has been remarkable since the first two weeks of the season, and showed the entire baseball world how great he has been in the All-Star Game, when he struck out the side against the National League on ten pitches, earning the save for the AL.

The right-hander has allowed just 23 hits and six walks in 43 appearances this season, compiling 21 saves and a 1.31 ERA. However, the way Terry Francona and Carl Willis has gotten to Clase has changed a bit.

Early in the season, the Guards used Nick Sandlin and Trevor Stephan to set up, and mixed in Anthony Gose when a lefty was needed.

We should also mention there has been another constant, using Bryan Shaw in any role other than as the closer.

Gose proved to be prone to walks (14 in 21 innings) and the home run ball (he’s allowed four) and so Sam Hentges, who struggles with command too, started to be used in his place, but recently, Hentges hasn’t received a lot of work.

Sandlin couldn’t find the plate and Eli Morgan emerged as “a weapon” as Francona called him, able to work multiple innings. But he too as found a need to adjust as he’s allowed 11 earned runs in his last 15 innings.

Stephan had a rough stretch, but recently seems to have straightened himself out, and probably is back to being the pitcher of choice in the 8th inning of a close game.

Enyel De Los Santos is a guy who seems to be underused. He’s really had just two bad outing all season, and overall has a 2.87 ERA with 36 whiffs and 11 walks in 31-1/3 innings. There are times the skipper goes to Shaw, when De Los Santos would seem to be a better choice.

The Guards are also working back in James Karinchak, who missed most of the season, but in seven appearances totaling 8-2/3 innings, has struck out 16 and walked four. In his last five games, he hasn’t allowed a run in 6-2/3 frames. giving up three hits and fanning 13.

Based on all of the information currently at hand, here are our bullpen confidence ratings right now:

Clase (that goes without saying)
Stephan
De Los Santos
Sandlin
Hentges
Shaw
Karinchak
Morgan

This list is very fluid to say the least. We’d like to rank Karinchak higher, but you never know when he’s going to lose control. If he can demonstrate he can find the strike zone consistently, he’d be right there with Stephan.

And as good as Morgan was early in the year, right now, we would avoid using him in a close game. Maybe we will move him up if he can put up more zeroes.

Hentges seems to walk (or at least fall behind) the first hitter when he comes in the game and Shaw is prone to the long ball and the walk, two no-no’s for relief pitchers.

We guess what we are really saying is it would be nice if the front office got an extra arm for the bullpen by the trade deadline. Right?

Moves Coming For Guardians When They Come Home?

Not only are the Cleveland Guardians entering a tough part of their schedule, starting with a nine game trek to Colorado, Los Angeles, and Minnesota, but the front office will have to make more tough decisions when it comes to the make up of the 26 man roster.

DH Franmil Reyes is scheduled to begin a rehab assignment tomorrow night in Columbus, so his return to the active roster will likely come, barring a setback, when the Guards return to Progressive Field on June 24th against the Red Sox.

The player called up when Reyes was placed on the injured list isn’t likely to be going back when he returns. Oscar Gonzalez has provided the offense with a jolt since his arrival, batting .391 in 65 at bats and a 931 OPS. Although Gonzalez hasn’t cleared the fences for a home run, he has totaled nine doubles after joining the big league roster.

Terry Francona has enjoyed using a rotating DH spot with Reyes out, enabling him to give Jose Ramirez and Josh Naylor some extra rest, so when the big man comes back he could find himself in the outfield more frequently.

We know the offense has done well in Reyes’ absence, but make no mistake, the Guardians could very much use the guy who belted 30 homers last year in the middle of their lineup. Outside of Jose Ramirez, no one has hit more than seven long balls (Naylor and Andres Gimenez).

Cleveland is 12th in the AL in home runs.

So, who departs when Reyes is activated? Do the Guards stay with an extra infielder who occasionally fills in out in LF like Ernie Clement? Or does Oscar Mercado, who hasn’t hit much since the calendar turned to May stay on the roster because of his speed and defense in the outfield?

Mercado started the 2022 season hitting the long ball, with three dingers in April, but since, he’s gone 9 for 46 with just one homer and has walked just twice with 13 punchouts. He’s also hitting just .174 (447 OPS) against lefties.

Clement can play 2B, 3B, and LF, and probably could play an acceptable shortstop too, and is hitting .217 (519 OPS) against southpaws.

The problem for Clement is Francona could use Owen Miller the same way, although we’ve only seen Miller at short in the bigs for one game.

So, what plays better roster wise, Mercado’s ability to play all three outfield spots or Clement’s ability to play infield and left?

Also, Mercado is out of options, so he would have to be DFA’d if he was the casualty when Reyes returns.

Another move could be coming to the bullpen when James Karinchak is ready, and again, that could happen when the team returns home.

If Karinchak is throwing strikes, he can fill the set up man role which has been a revolving door recently for Francona, with Eli Morgan currently the guy he trusts the most.

If Morgan continues to do well, he gives the skipper two options.

Trevor Stephan got off to a great start in April, but has struggled since.

The most likely candidate to be sent back is Nick Sandlin, who right now seems to have home plate jumping around on him, with 16 walks in 17 innings. We have long said there are two things relievers have to avoid: home runs and walks.

Sandlin has only allowed two long balls, but the walks are a problem. He may need to go back to Columbus and find his control and then come back up to the big club.

Of course, someone could get banged up on the trip and force different moves, but we wouldn’t be surprised if Reyes and Karinchak are back in Cleveland after the nine game trip.

Once Tribe Gets The Lead, The Bullpen Locks It Up

We feel fairly certain opposing managers in Major League Baseball won’t be thrilled with the news that the Cleveland Indians might have another bullpen weapon in rookie Nick Sandlin.

Now, we don’t want to get too carried away with three appearances totalling 4-1/3 innings, but the hard throwing sidearmer seems to have made quite an impression on Terry Francona, Carl Willis, and Reuben Niebla.

With last Thursday game in the balance, Francona brought in the rookie in a 3-0 game in the bottom of the sixth with two Kansas City Royals on base, and six time all star Salvador Perez at the plate. Perez hits cleanup for the Royals.

Sandlin induced a double play grounder to get two quick outs and then followed up by getting Jorge Soler on another ground ball. He pitched a three up, three down seventh, including two strikeouts, turning the game over to James Karinchak and Emmanuel Clase to close it out.

Generally, guys who throw from the side don’t get it up to home plate at 95 MPH, so it gives Francona an option to show opposing a different look late in games.

The Cleveland bullpen had already taken the look of a “if you aren’t ahead after six, it doesn’t look good for you” relief corps through the first 30 games because of the performances of Bryan Shaw, Karinchak, and Clase.

Shaw is a remarkable story. He already ranks 8th on the Indians’ all time list for appearances with 391, and should be at least 6th by the end of the season. He was a mainstay of Francona’s bullpen from 2013 through 2017, pitching in 378 games, and led the American League in appearances 2014, 2016, and 2017 before departing for Colorado and a big contract.

He suffered through two bad seasons with the Rockies, a place not known to be kind to pitchers, and then pitched in just six games with Seattle last season, allowing 12 runs in six innings.

When he signed with the Tribe before spring training, there were plenty of comments, mostly negative. We thought what the heck, maybe he could regain his regular form after pretty much a year of inactivity.

He’s rewarded the Indians’ trust by being the man Francona calls on to pitch the 7th. He has a 2.03 ERA in 13 games, striking out 14 in 13-1/3 frames. The only down statistic is his eight walks.

Karinchek is putting up unworldly numbers right now. He allowed a HR to Hunter Dozier last week perhaps just to prove he is human, as he has allowed just 3 hits in 15 innings for the season, striking out two batters per inning. And his control, an issue in the past, has been excellent to date with just three walks.

He has been so dominant, he ranks 4th in WAR for the Indians at this point of the season, behind Jose Ramirez, Shane Bieber, and Aaron Civale.

Clase, with his 100 MPH cutter, has been more dominant than his numbers indicate, and his numbers are good (1.26 ERA and 15 K’s in 14-1/3 IP). He’s allowed 15 hits in those innings, but only six of those have been classed as line drives. The rest are ground balls that have gone either through the infield or been fielded but the batter beat the throw to first.

He’s also walked just three batters on the season.

We haven’t even mentioned Cal Quantrill (2.12 ERA), Phil Maton (16 strikeouts in 11 innings), and Nick Wittgren, who after a couple of shaky appearances has allowed just a single run in his last five outings.

And Rule 5 draftee Trevor Stephan hasn’t been in a game since April 28th.

The starting pitching gets a lot of the headlines because they keep the Indians in almost every game. But once the Tribe gets the lead, it’s very tough to get it back because of the bullpen. And if Sandlin continues to do what he did in KC, it’s a nightmare for opposing hitters and managers.