A Lot Of Success, But Guardians Have To Cash In (Sometime)

The Cleveland Guardians start their quest for their first World Championship since 1948 next Saturday, likely hosting the winner of the Wild Card Series matchup between the Astros and Tigers.

The first two games are at Progressive Field.

If you grew up in the sixties and seventies, when Cleveland baseball was largely a losing proposition, it might surprise you that the Indians/Guardians (and Blues, Naps, etc.) have the 7th highest winning percentage among the current Major League teams.

And if you limit this to current American League franchises, Cleveland is third, behind only the behemoths of the East, New York and Boston.

Among those top ten records, one thing sticks out, the number of world titles. Cleveland has the least with just two, ironically the only other team in this group with less than four titles is the club the Indians lost to in 2016, the Cubs have just three.

The franchise has won only six pennants, half of them coming in the last 30 years. Again, the regular season record is very good, but the A’s (15), Tigers (11) and the Orioles (7) have both won more American League championships, and remember, the Orioles were the lowly St. Louis Browns until 1955, and they only won once in 1944.

The White Sox and Twins have equaled the six pennants won by Cleveland, so they are actually tied for the least success achieved by the original members of the Junior Circuit.

This will be the 17th post-season appearance for the franchise, ranking behind New York (58), Oakland (29), Boston (25), Houston and Minnesota (each with 18, although it must be noted the Astros made the NL playoffs before coming over to the AL in 2013).

They have made the playoffs eight times in the AL, winning two World Series.

What is the point of rehashing a somewhat sad story?

It’s that it is time for the Guardians to cash in one.

We have heard about all the success in the wild card era, the Jacobs/Progressive Field era if you will. Fourteen post-season appearances in that span, 12 AL Central Division titles.

In that span, only the Yankees and Red Sox have made the playoffs more often, but they have each won multiple World Series.

Cleveland has dominated the division. Minnesota has won the second most division titles with nine, while the Tigers and White Sox have each won four and the Royals taking the crown just once.

But the White Sox and Royals each won the Series, Chicago winning in 2005 and Kansas City ten years later.

Minnesota has had trouble winning in the post-season recently, but most of their fans remember and celebrate their two World Series victories in 1987 and 1991.

It hasn’t been 76 years like it has for Cleveland baseball fans, but it has now been 40 years since the Tigers won their last Series in 1984.

The point is for all the success Cleveland has had since 1995; they need to cash in with a title. There was a discussion on social media about what franchise you would like to have as a fan over the last 50 years and Kansas City was an option.

Most fans selected the Royals because even though they have had some valleys, 17 seasons of 90 or more losses since 1992, they have the 1985 and 2015 World Series winners.

Yes, baseball is a sport that has a potentially volatile post-season, meaning any team that gets in the playoffs has a chance to win the world title. We’ve seen a few teams with less than 90 wins win it.

Heck, the 1997 Indians only won 86 games, and made it to game 7 of the Fall Classic.

So, we get the argument (and we’ve made it) to just get in and you have a shot. But what is missing from perhaps the best 30 year stretch of baseball in Cleveland?

1948 still rings in our ears.

Previewing Guardians And Yankees

The Cleveland Guardians will face a much stiffer challenge in the upcoming American League Division Series, and we don’t think that is breaking news.

First, the Guards will head to Yankee Stadium for two games in the Bronx, whereas all three games against Tampa Bay were scheduled for Progressive Field.

Secondly, the Yankees are a better team than the Rays, winning 13 more games in the regular season. They also won seven more than Cleveland, including five of six in head-to-head meetings.

While the Rays were 11th in the AL in runs scored at 4.11, New York led the AL averaging almost a run more per contest at 4.98, and they were second in the league in OPS as a team, behind only Toronto.

Pitching wise, while Tampa was third in team ERA just ahead of Cleveland, New York is second at 3.30.

You are supposed to play better teams as you move on in the post-season, so this is nothing to be surprised about, but the Yankees are a much better offensive ballclub. There is no Aaron Judge in the Rays’ batting order.

As for the season series against the Bronx Bombers, remember the Guards made their only trip to New York way back at the end of April. In fact, the starting pitcher for the first game of that series was Eli Morgan, making his only start of the year.

He was following in that game by Logan Allen, Tanner Tully, and Konnor Pilkington. It was that long ago.

The second game of the series was the contest where there was an altercation between Myles Straw and the fans in the bleachers after Steven Kwan was hurt. Emmanuel Clase blew the save, making his ERA for the season 7.71.

The last game was a blowout, a 10-2 Yankee win, with Aaron Civale taking the loss. Civale was really struggling at the time.

The three-game set in Cleveland involved a rainout (surprise) and a doubleheader on Saturday, in which Kirk McCarty started the first game, a 13-4 loss. Civale started game two and was losing 2-1 going into the seventh before he tired and the bullpen allowed four runs.

In the finale, Triston McKenzie pitched a masterpiece, going seven, one hit innings, and Clase survived an error in the ninth to save it. That dropped his ERA to 1.31 on the season.

A little bit of a difference, eh?

It is interesting to note the Guardians saw Garrit Cole and Nestor Cortes, the game #1 and #2 starters each twice in the six regular season contests, while the Yankees saw Cal Quantrill and McKenzie each once. Shane Bieber, who will toe the rubber Thursday night, did not pitch against New York during the season.

That alone could account for Cleveland’s 1-5 record this year.

And for what it’s worth, both Quantrill (6.1 IP, 3 runs) and McKenzie pitched well against the Yanks.

Can the Guardians win this series? Sure, they are a much different team than they were in early July when the two teams last met. Heck, Oscar Gonzalez didn’t have an at bat against New York.

However, the offense is going to have to produce. We doubt scoring three runs in two games will win anything.

That’s why the play the games, right?

Biggest Factor For Tribe? Games Aren’t In The Bronx

Tomorrow night, the Indians start the new “Wild Card” round of the American League playoffs, necessitated this year (we hope only this year) by the shortened regular season.

Because of the regional schedule for the year, Tribe fans haven’t seen the Yankees this season, and vice versa. This we do know, New York had a 33-27 record this season, going 22-9 at Yankee Stadium and 11-18 on the road.

By the way, all three games of the series will be played in Cleveland at Progressive Field.

Because the Yankees get on national television more than most teams, certainly more than the Indians, baseball fans know the names: Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Judge, Gleyber Torres, D.J. LeMahieu, and Gary Sanchez.

And they signed Garrit Cole, who won 20 games with the Astros last season, helping to pitch them to the AL pennant.

Their closer is Aroldis Chapman, who Tribe fans remember very well from the 2016 World Series.

However, in looking at the statistics for the Yankees this season, it has a Jekyll and Hyde feel to them.

You see, in the Bronx, the pinstripers have a team batting average of .273 with 67 home runs as a team, and a 907 OPS.

As a comparison, the Indians team statistics for the entire season has them with a .228 batting average, 59 home runs, and an OPS of 689. That’s for both home and road games.

LeMahieu, the AL batting champion, batted .448 at Yankee Stadium with eight home runs. Luke Voit, who led the Junior Circuit in long balls, swatted 16 at home. Four other Yanks hit six dingers in the Bronx, meanwhile the Tribe had four players who hit more that a half dozen for the entire season.

However, away from the famous short porch in right field, New York has at least according to the numbers been a far different team.

On the road, the Bronx Bombers have a .220 batting average with only 27 home runs, and a 668 OPS. They hit like Cleveland did all season long away from the House That Derek Jeter Built.

LeMahieu, who is a great hitter (we wanted the Indians to sign him when he was a free agent), batted .283 on the road, but had just two dingers. Voit, who had 22 homers for the season, hit just six away from the Bronx.

Stanton (14 for 49, 3 HR) and old friend Gio Urshela (21 for 65, 12 RBI) were the most productive New York bats away from home this season.

What is odd is the Yankee pitching splits at home and on the road. NY pitchers had a 3.87 ERA in the Big Apple, with Cole having a 2.09 mark, winning four games. Masahiro Tanaka, the game two starter won three at home, but with a 4.40 ERA.

The weird stat is they had a 4.88 ERA on the road. We understand their road games were at hitter friendly parks like Fenway Park, Oriole Park at Camden Yards, and Sahlens Field in Buffalo, where the Blue Jays played their home games, and it was very much a pitcher’s nightmare.

Tanaka pitched well on the road (2.33 ERA) which isn’t good news for Wednesday night’s contest.

As for the Tribe, they hit .233 at home (compared to .222 on the road), but hit 34 of their 59 home runs on the road.

Jose Ramirez (who else?) was the best hitter at Progressive Field, hitting .317 with 19 extra base hits. Cesar Hernandez hit .313 at his new home park, and Carlos Santana belted five of his eight homers in Cleveland.

The Indians’ pitchers had a 3.67 ERA at home vs. 2.90 away from Progressive Field. It didn’t matter for game one starter Shane Bieber, the likely AL Cy Young Award winner, who had 1.23 ERA and struck out 44 hitters in 22 innings at home.

Game 2 starter Carlos Carrasco had a 3.03 ERA, and Game 3 hurler Zach Plesac is at 2.08 along the shores of Lake Erie.

What does all of this mean? Not much, because it’s baseball, and a three game series doesn’t really determine a lot. However, ignore the names wearing the New York uniforms. They are television personalities because the networks want the Yankees.

The numbers show the Indians can compete and win the series if (and that’s a huge if) their beleaguered offense can cobble up some runs. That’s the biggest question of the week for the Tribe.

Shortened Draft, Less Minor League Teams Plays Into Helping Big Markets

The Major League Amateur Draft started in 1965. Coincidentally, the New York Yankees’ dominance of the American League ended the same year.

We say coincidentally because the Bronx Bombers of that era were showing some age. Stars like Mickey Mantle and Whitey Ford were showing some age, as was former MVP Elston Howard. Yogi Berra recently retired and managed the team in ’64.

From 1936-1964, New York won 22 AL pennants, and the only time they went consecutive seasons without a berth in the World Series was during World War II (1944-46).

When baseball had its only era without any free agency of any sort, from 1965 to the McNally/Messersmith decision at the end of 1975, the Yankees won no pennants. Their best finish was a pair of 2nd place finishes in 1970 and 1974.

To be fair, not being able to outspend everyone was not the only reason for the Yanks lack of titles, but it is interesting they weren’t successful. The Yanks didn’t make the post-season from 1982-1995 and they could spend freely in those years.

But the reason we bring this up is baseball’s willingness to eliminate farm teams and shorten the amateur draft.

Developing players is the equalizer for smaller market teams that cannot afford to pay big bucks for star players. The Indians have stayed competitive over the past seven years because of their success in developing players such as Jose Ramirez, Roberto Perez, and a cadre of pitchers, particularly starters like Shane Bieber, Mike Clevinger, and others.

We didn’t count Frankie Lindor here because he was a first round pick, but none of the others we mentioned were.

If we were a mid market franchise, we would invest heavily in the farm system, bringing in as many players as we could. The more you work with, the better chance one of them becomes a big leaguer.

Remember how the St. Louis Cardinals became a power in the 1930’s. Branch Rickey’s extensive farm system produced players that kept the franchise contending during the 30’s and 40’s.

We heard former Marlins’ executive David Samson say he had a problem with investing money in the player development system knowing only a few could make an impact at the big league level.

That’s horrible thinking in our opinion. We look at it differently.

What value would you put on Ramirez’ production with the Tribe? He’s had two top three MVP finishes as an international free agent. Those two seasons alone would at worst be valued at $60 million on the open market.

Cleveland paid next to nothing.

We also feel the shortened draft plays into the hands of the teams with a more national fan base.

According to Baseball America’s Top 500 Prospects coming into this year’s draft, of the players not drafted, the teams signing the most players in this ranking were the Yankees, Phillies, Cubs, as well as the Padres and Royals.

Overall, the Red Sox and Reds signed the most players regarding of ranking.

The Royals got a lot of good press in saying they would pay their minor leaguers for the remainder of the season. For the record, the Indians signed one, C Joe Donovan.

There was a cap on the bonus amount for these players this year, but what happens when there isn’t? Do you think the big market teams aren’t going the volume route and will sign as many of these free agents as they can?

Besides the talent acquisition aspect, eliminating minor league teams hurts the sport at the grass roots level. Why would you want to expose less people to your sport? Isn’t that the antithesis to growing the game of baseball?

What’s one positive thing about these two moves from the commissioner’s office? Frankly, we can’t think of one. Seems like the people who run the game wanted to do something for the sake of doing something, and only thought about one thing–saving money.

Here’s hoping logic prevails, but based on the last couple of months, we doubt that’s possible.

Best Game We’ve Seen? ’97 ALDS Game 5

When anyone asks us what is the best sporting event we have attended in person, we have one answer. It was Game 5 of the 1997 American League Division Series against the New York Yankees.

Of course, the Tribe won the contest, dethroning the World Champion as part of a magical post-season run that would be thought of today the same way the Los Angeles Dodgers’ 1988 season, if not for a blown save in Game 7 of that year’s World Series.

Cleveland scored 5 runs in the first inning of Game 1 at Yankee Stadium, only to watch Eric Plunk implode in the bottom of the 6th. The Indians headed into the frame with a 6-3 lead, but Plunk served up back-to-back jacks to Tim Raines and Derek Jeter, and then Paul Assenmacher served up another to Paul O’Neill, and the Tribe lost 8-6.

New York took a 3-0 lead in the first off Jaret Wright in Game 2, but Cleveland countered with a five run 4th, highlighted by a 2-run double by Tony Fernandez, and Matt Williams belted a two-run homer in the 5th and the Indians hung on for a 7-5 win, despite solo tallies in the 8th and 9th by the Yanks.

Wright threw five scoreless innings after that shaky first.

The series returned to Cleveland for the balance of games, and New York put themselves one win away from a clinch with a 6-1 victory, David Wells throwing a complete game and Charles Nagy taking the loss. The Tribe mustered just five hits.

The next night though, is talked about a lot because it was one of the few times Mariano Rivera failed in the post-season.

Orel Hershiser threw seven innings on three days rest, allowing just two runs, but Dwight Gooden and the NY bullpen held the Tribe bats at bay until Sandy Alomar Jr. tied it in the bottom of the eighth with a homer off Rivera.

Omar Vizquel’s single off reliever Ramiro Mendoza’s glove in the ninth won the game and forced a deciding game five the following night.

So, Mike Hargrove sent Wright to the mound on three days rest to take on Andy Pettitte in a rematch of Game 2 starters.

Wright escaped trouble in each of the first two innings, giving up a hit and a walk in the first and two singles in the second, but kept the Yanks off the scoreboard.

In the bottom of the third, the Indians struck. With one out, Marquis Grissom and Bip Roberts singled. Vizquel hit into a force, but then stole second. Manny Ramirez then doubled, to score two, and that was followed by a Williams’ single to make it 3-0 Tribe.

Cleveland added to its lead in the fourth when Alomar led off with a double, moved to third on get this…a Jim Thome sacrifice bunt, and scored on Fernandez’ sacrifice fly.

New York cut the lead in half in the top of the fifth. After Wright walked two hitters, with two outs, Bernie Williams singled and the second runner scored on an error by Ramirez.

The Yankees scored again in the top of the sixth, when Mike Stanley led off with a double and scored on a one out single by Wade Boggs, which ended Wright’s evening. Mike Jackson struck out Jorge Posada and got Raines on a ground ball. And the Tribe’s lead was just one after six innings.

Jackson gave up a leadoff hit to Jeter to start the 7th, but Assenmacher came on to get two ground balls off the bats of O’Neill and Bernie Williams, the second a double play to get out of it.

In the eighth, after Assenmacher got Tino Martinez to foul out to Alomar, Hargrove decided it was time to go to his closer, Jose Mesa.

Mesa fanned Stanley, and gave up back-to-back singles before getting Posada on a comebacker to end the threat.

The Indians tried to add to the lead in the bottom half, getting two on with two out, but Mike Stanton struck out David Justice.

Mesa got Raines and Jeter to start the ninth, but O’Neill, who wound up 9 for 11 in his career against the Cleveland closer, hit a bullet of the very top (and we mean the very top) of the wall in right center, just missing a game tying homer by a foot. He wound up at second.

Bernie Williams hit Mesa’s next pitch, a fly ball to medium deep left where Brian Giles caught it. On Fox, Joe Buck simply said “celebrate” and Mesa fell to his knees on the mound.

The Tribe was moving on to Baltimore and ultimately, Miami.

Still, the best game we’ve ever been at.

Other AL Contenders Have Dominated Vs. Bad Teams Too

The Cleveland Indians, thought by many to be out of the playoff competition in mid May, start today’s game against Kansas City 20 games over the .500 mark at 62-42, and have a four game lead over the second wild card spot ahead of Boston and Oakland.

Where they once trailed by 11-1/2 games in the division standings, they are today just one game behind Minnesota in the Central Division standings.

They have accomplished this by simply dominating the lower echelon teams in the American League. The Tribe has gone 37-11 against the five worst teams in the AL: Kansas City, Detroit, Baltimore, Toronto, and Seattle.

There are those who will say this is fool’s gold. The Indians aren’t really contenders, they are the product of a soft schedule and cannot compete with the best teams in the league.

This ignores their 10-9 record against Boston, Houston, Minnesota, and the New York Yankees, all of whom Cleveland will play in the next three weeks.

In the interest of fairness, the Tribe is 2-8 vs. Oakland and Tampa, two other contenders for the playoffs, but all of those games came before this resurgence started after a loss to Boston on Memorial Day.

Since then, Cleveland has gone 36-15 in a stretch that included two games with Boston, three with the Yankees, and six with the Twins.

Going 37-11 against any five teams is a challenge. Heck, it’s Major League Baseball. It isn’t supposed to be easy, no matter how bad the competition.

At the end of June, the Indians lost a series on the road to Baltimore, a team certain to lose more than 100 games this season.

We looked at the other playoff contenders to see how they fared against the five teams Terry Francona’s squad has dominated.

The Yankees have piled up a 10-2 record against the Orioles and overall is 25-8 against the lowly five. They lost two of three to Detroit, where the Indians have won 12 out of 13.

Houston has played the least number of games against this group, mainly because only one of them is in the Western Division. The Astros have fared similar to Cleveland, going 18-4, winning nine of ten vs. Seattle.

Minnesota has the same number of losses (11), with 27 wins. They won all six games against Baltimore, but are a combined 16-9 vs. KC, DET, and TOR, where the Indians are 28-7.

They have a lot of games coming up against the Royals and Tigers, playing them in a combined 20 more games.

Boston has played the second most games against the quintet, but they haven’t fared as well as Cleveland, going 30-16. They’ve lost six games against the Blue Jays and five more to the Orioles. Perhaps they have an issue against birds.

Tampa Bay is 20-10, going just 4-3 against the Royals and 8-4 vs. Baltimore. They have yet to play the Mariners, and have 18 games left vs. the Orioles and Blue Jays.

Oakland caught Seattle early in the year when they were hot, so they are 8-7 with four to play. Toronto has also been tough, taking all six from the A’s, leading to a 17-14 record.

So, outside of Oakland, all of the contenders have beaten the living daylights out of the also ran teams.

The difference for the Indians, is they only have nine games remaining against the Royals and Tigers, and are done with the other three squads.

The Indians shouldn’t be condemned for beating the “bums”, they simply are doing what they should.

If they can hold their own through the middle of August after playing Houston, Minnesota, Boston, and the Yankees, they should be just fine.

And that’s assuming everyone else can match Cleveland’s dominance against the lowly five.

Yankees A Huge Challenge For Tribe

Anyone who is an ardent fan of baseball knows that it is a funny game. It is probably the one sport where the best team not winning the World Series would be the norm.

The Cleveland Indians finished the regular season with the American League’s best record, so they get the winner of the wild card game as their opponent in the Division Series.

Unfortunately, the winner of that game, the New York Yankees, might just be the second best team in the AL.

The Indians led the league in run differential, outscoring their opponents by an incredible 254 runs. The Yankees were second, with a +198 mark, just slightly ahead of Houston’s +196.

It is not the ideal situation to play the second best team in the league in a best-of-five series.

Many people have focused on Terry Francona’s decision to start Trevor Bauer in game one, but we have always thought the even numbered games are most important in a series until the deciding game, and that may be Tito’s thought process in using ace Corey Kluber in the second game.

If Bauer wins the series opener, how great will it be to have Kluber going with a chance to take a commanding 2-0 lead.

And if the Indians lose game one, you have perhaps the AL’s best pitcher to tie up the series at a game apiece.

Another reason is Francona seems hesitant to use Josh Tomlin as a starter. If Kluber pitches game one, Tomlin would seem to be the most likely candidate to pitch a potential fourth game.

If Bauer goes in the first game, Kluber still would be the game five starter, and Bauer can go in game four, backed up by the bullpen, which has starters Danny Salazar, Mike Clevinger, and Tomlin as members.

There is no question the Yankees are a different team outside of the bandbox that is new Yankee Stadium, but amazingly, they pitch better at home too.

New York has a 817 OPS as a team at home, but that figure drops to 755 on the road. As a comparison, the Indians have a 782 OPS at Progressive Field, and a 793 OPS away from home, another reason the Cleveland tied Houston for the best road record in the AL at 53-28.

The Yankees also have a very good bullpen, perhaps second only to the Indians.

Just as Francona can shorten a game by going to Joe Smith, Bryan Shaw, Andrew Miller, and Cody Allen after five innings, Yankee skipper Joe Girardi can do the same with David Robertson, Chad Green, Tommy Kahnle, and Aroldis Chapman.

It will be very important for the Tribe to get an early lead in each game.

These games will probably be long. The two teams involved are one and two in the American League in walks, but the big difference is in strikeouts.

The Indians have a strikeout staff leading the AL in whiffs, and the Yankees rank 6th in the league in fanning. New York’s pitching staff ranks 4th in strikeouts, but Indians’ hitters are second to last in the junior circuit in whiffing.

The one decided edge the Tribe has is in the starting pitching. While Luis Severino is one of the sports’ best young starters, Francona has three of perhaps the top ten starters in the AL at his disposal.

It is very likely that this Yankee team is better than the Red Sox or Blue Jays teams the Indians met last year in the post-season.

Make no mistake, this series will be a challenge.