In writing about the Cleveland Indians, we have referred to them as the favorites to win the American League Central Division, pretty much assuming they will get to the playoffs in 2019.

The question today is–based on the current roster, is that a correct assumption?  Or are we thinking with our heart instead of the head.

Last year’s Indians scored 80 more runs than their closest competitors, the Minnesota Twins, a year ago.  They allowed 127 runs less than the Twins.

They were the closest to the Tribe in both of those categories in 2018, and not coincidentally, the Twins finished second in the division, 13 games behind Cleveland.

Since the season’s end, the Indians have lost four of their top six hitters in OPS:  Michael Brantley, Edwin Encarnacion, Yan Gomes, and Yonder Alonso.  Replacing them are question marks.

They also have cut ties with the players with the three highest OPS figures among the non-regular players–Josh Donaldson, Lonnie Chisenhall, and Yandy Diaz.

While pitching may rule in a short series, you have to score runs to get to the post-season.  In the AL, the top five teams in runs scored all made the playoffs, and in the National League, five of the top seven teams in runs scored advanced.

By the way, the Twins were the highest scoring team in the AL last season that did not make the playoffs, and they added C. J. Cron and Nelson Cruz to their lineup, while substracting Robbie Grossman and Joe Mauer, who retired.

Cron (816 OPS) essentially replaces Logan Morrison, who had the Twins’ lowest OPS among regulars, while Cruz (850 OPS) would rank as Minnesota’s best hitter, and had an OPS over 100 points higher than Mauer.

It would not be a stretch to say the Twins may score more runs than the Indians in 2019. We like Eddie Rosario and Max Kepler a lot, and the latter in particular should improve on his 2018 numbers.

Where the Indians have a huge advantage is in the starting rotation, arguably all five of the Cleveland starters could have better years than any of the Twins’ rotation members.

We like Jose Barrios, but right now he would be the fifth starter for the Indians.

Looking at the two teams, we would say the Indians are banking on their rotation’s ability to hold opponents’ hitters down, so they can win a lot of games 3-2 and 4-3.  That’s difficult to sustain over an entire season, and puts a lot of pressure on the Cleveland bullpen, which is also in a state of disarray.

The Twins, led by former Indians’ assistant general manager Derek Falvey, haven’t been super aggressive this off-season, but they have made moves to improve their ballclub, which we can’t say about the Tribe.

Chris Antonetti and Mike Chernoff shouldn’t be comfortable about ruling the division again next season, especially with uncertainty at pretty much every spot save for shortstop, second or third base (depending on where Jose Ramirez plays), and first base/DH (wherever Carlos Santana is).

While the Cleveland starting pitching is the most impressive and best unit among the two rosters, the gap has definitely narrowed.  And spring training is less than a month away.

We also haven’t mentioned the Chicago White Sox who are wooing free agent all-star Manny Machado.

Perhaps we should scale back our “certainty” that the Indians will get back to the playoffs in ’19.  They have a lot to do to be considered a lock.

MW