It Doesn’t Hurt If Cavs Win Some Games.

The Cleveland Cavaliers won their fifth game of the season the other night, and as is the case with most wins for the wine and gold (or whatever color they are wearing), a certain part of the fan base gets disenchanted.

They are interested in getting better odds for the NBA Draft Lottery, so they are the tanking crowd. Their idea is the only way to get better is to get the best player available in the draft, meaning get the first pick.

This flies in the face of reality though. It assumes that teams which are in the lottery eventually become playoff contenders, and it also assumes the best player in the draft each year is the first overall pick.

You have to learn to play winning basketball. And you learn it by winning. You can accumulate a bunch of talent and throw it together and until the group starts winning, they won’t know how to win.

And that means getting some veterans who do know and having that information passed along to the younger players. It’s why the Cavs still have players like Kevin Love, Tristan Thompson, and Matthew Dellavedova. Part of their job is teaching the young guys.

Look at the Atlanta Hawks, a very young team that won 29 games a year ago. To be fair, they lost John Collins to suspension, but they still have Trae Young and a good rookie in De’Andre Hunter and they sit at 4-12.

You also have annual lottery participants in Sacramento, a franchise that hasn’t been over the .500 mark since 2005-06. They did get to 39 wins last season, and currently sit at 7-8 this year.

As for the best player being the first overall pick? That’s becoming a myth too. While it is too early to evaluate the players picked this summer, the best player picked a year ago was not Deandre Ayton, the first pick, but rather the third choice in Luka Doncic, who is probably one of the top five players in the league right now.

If you measure by VORP (Value Over Replacement Player), here are the results from the past three drafts.

In the 2017 draft, you can make a strong case that the three best players are Donovan Mitchell (13th), Bam Adebayo (14th), and Jayson Tatum (3rd). Markelle Fultz and Lonzo Ball went first and second that season.

Ben Simmons might be the best player from the 2016 draft, belying his first overall selection, but the next best players from that year are Pascal Siakam, picked 27th overall by Toronto. Malcolm Brogdan is next, and he was a second round pick (36th) and won Rookie of the Year honors.

Karl-Anthony Towns was the prize of the ’15 selection process, and is the best player, but the next three best are Myles Turner (11th), Montrezl Harrell (32nd) and Larry Nance Jr. (27th).

Look, we don’t want the Cavs to lose their first round pick in 2020, which they will if they aren’t in the top 10 of next year’s draft. However, it’s a good sign for the franchise if this already pretty young team can put together some victories.

By the trading deadline, one of the veterans will likely be moved so the team won’t be as good as the season winds down, so they can keep the draft pick organically.

But you don’t want Collin Sexton, Darius Garland, Kevin Porter Jr. and eventually Dylan Windler to have the only lesson they learn with this team is losing. They need to experience some victories and how you earn them.

John Beilein talks a lot about culture. Gaining victories is part of reaffirming a good culture within a team.

Lottery Win Gives Griffin Another Asset

At least the Cleveland Cavaliers have one arena where they are victorious, unfortunately, it is not on the court.

Instead, it happens in the NBA Draft Lottery, where the wine and gold came up with the first overall pick for the third time in the last four seasons.

To this point, those first overall picks haven’t translated into success in the regular season, which is why the Cavs continue to be in the lottery. They haven’t been able to make the playoffs.

The first overall selection does give Cleveland GM David Griffin a valuable commodity, it remains to be seen though, who will make the first pick next month.

Why? Because the Cavs have already been through this before. Is it really best for the team to take another player who will take two, three, or maybe even four years to be able to make a difference in the NBA?

Next year will be the fifth season since LeBron James left for Miami, causing the Cavs to start a rebuilding process. The time for developing players is over, it’s time to start winning games. Will the first overall pick help them get over the hump in 2014-15?

We are all aware of last year’s draft in which the Cavs selected Anthony Bennett with the first choice. The rookie of the year turned out to be Philadelphia’s Michael Carter-Williams, who was the 11th pick. Out of the top ten, only Victor Oladipo (Orlando), Cody Zeller (Charlotte), and Trey Burke (Utah) could be said to be big contributors to their teams as rookies.

The year before, the Cavs selected Dion Waiters with the 4th overall choice. That draft looks to be pretty solid with only Thomas Robinson and Austin Rivers not getting big minutes with their respective teams. Still, only four players, Damian Lillard (Portland), Terence Ross (Toronto), Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (Charlotte), and Bradley Beal (Washington) are playing a significant role of playoff teams.

In 2011, Cleveland selected Kyrie Irving first and Tristan Thompson fourth. Only two players taken in the top ten of that draft, Jonas Valenciunas (Toronto) and Kemba Walker (Charlotte) are getting significant minutes on teams that made the playoffs.

The point is there haven’t been more than a handful of rookies who have made a significant difference in their first couple of years in the league. It is almost like the major league baseball draft, where you are picking players who can help you down the road.

The Cavaliers can’t wait any longer to start winning.

We have said this before, players who can make an immediate impact in the NBA generally play well in the NCAA tournament. They don’t disappear.

Many have Cleveland selecting Anthony Wiggins of Kansas as their choice. His last college game was dreadful, scoring less than 10 points. He also weighs under 200 pounds. Can you see him playing against guys like Paul George, Paul Pierce, and other small forwards who are 6’7″ and weigh 220 pounds?

This isn’t to say Wiggins won’t ever be good, in fact, he may turn into an all-star player. Irving did, but his success hasn’t translated into wins on the floor.

The point is there isn’t a player in this draft who can turn a franchise next season, so if Griffin can turn this pick into a young veteran who is already a quality player, that would be better for the wine and gold.

As for young, we mean mid 20’s, not a player who only has a few years remaining in their career.

To be sure, it was great for the Cavaliers to get the first overall pick. However, they need to look at it as another asset they’ve accumulated to get back to winning. There isn’t a franchise turning player in this draft.

Two Weeks to Go to Determine Cavs’ Future

After winning the NBA Draft Lottery last month, Cavs’ owner Dan Gilbert once again put all kinds of pressure on himself and his basketball organization by announcing it would be the last time for the wine and gold in that position for a while.

While we believe Gilbert was speaking from his desire to win, these types of statements are growing old. It is time for results for sure, but what happens if the Cavaliers miss the post-season by one or two games in 2013-14? Winning 36-38 games next season would be a great improvement from this year’s 24 victories.

There has been a lot of conversation about trading out of the top spot in the draft, a move we have advocated all along, but with this year’s crop of draftees being devoid of a “difference maker”, it will be tough for GM Chris Grant to come up with a trade partner.

If the wine and gold cannot deal the first pick, then they need to take the best player, whoever they perceive it to be, and not worry about the current make up of the roster.

While you can pick for need when picking later, when you have the first pick, you have to take the best player.

That would seem to narrow it down to three choices: Kansas G Ben McLemore, Indiana G Victor Oladipo, and Maryland C Alex Len.

McLemore is reported to have outstanding athletic ability and can score the basketball. He has three-point range, and can shoot off the dribble, a skill needed to be a complete player. His weaknesses are his feel for the game and his ball handling.

Those are a lot of good skills to like in a player.

Oladipo might be a reach at #1, but it has been reported the Cavs love him, and he would fit in nicely with Mike Brown’s emphasis on defense. He might be the most explosive athlete in the draft. He has a toughness about him and can finish at the rim. However, the rest of his offensive game needs a lot of work.

His jump shot is inconsistent and he doesn’t handle the ball well. He may be a good complement to Kyrie Irving, with Dion Waiters coming off the bench in a combo guard role.

Len is probably the most ready to play big man available this year. At 7’1″ and 255 pounds, he is a legitimate NBA center and his back to the basket game continues to improve. And he’s a decent mid-range shooter, and made 69% of his free throws in college.

As with most big men though, Len needs to get stronger and because of that, he is not a great rebounder at his size.

His NBADraft.net comparable player is someone Cleveland basketball fans should be very familiar with…Zydrunas Ilgauskas.

The Cavs’ biggest need is a small forward, but there doesn’t seem to be a quality one available this year.

Normally we don’t advocate taking a big guy for the sake of taking a big guy, but taking Len makes the most sense unless Grant can make a deal.

The speculation will end two weeks from today.

Grant is Firmly on Hot Seat

With the results for the NBA Draft Lottery being learned tomorrow, it reminds us how critical this off-season is for the Cleveland Cavaliers, who had the third worst record in the league this season.

While many basketball fans in the area are anxious to hear if the wine and gold indeed move up in the selection process, the reality is what do they win if they do get the first overall pick?

Most experts believe this is a very weak draft, meaning no one selected next month can be expected to make an immediate impact on their new team.

Which is the worst case scenario for the Cavs.

GM Chris Grant needs to bring in someone who can help this team contend for a playoff spot in the 2013-14 season. He brought in Mike Brown to coach the squad, but no matter who great a job Brown does next season, the fact remains that he has to improve the Cavaliers’ record by 14 games, the amount Cleveland was behind the 8th playoff seed in the Eastern Conference, the Milwaukee Bucks.

Yes, several of the Cavs’ young players will improve, mostly meaning the four picks in the last two drafts: Kyrie Irving, Tristan Thompson, Dion Waiters, and Tyler Zeller. And the new emphasis on defense will help as well, but the fact remains that Grant needs to add a quality veteran to the mix for the wine and gold to take a quantum leap, record-wise, in ’13-’14.

The best post player available in Kentucky’s Nerlens Noel, who is 6’11” weighs 225 pounds, and is coming off a knee injury. At his weight, he is unlikely to be ready to play meaningful, productive minutes against experienced NBA big men. Keep in mind, Noel is 25 pounds lighter than Zeller, who was pushed around a lot last season.

The best wing player is Kansas’ Ben McLemore, who played well in one NCAA tournament game, and disappeared in the rest. While he may wind up to be a good NBA player, it wouldn’t be a good bet to say that will happen next season.

Why not take a project like these guys if given the opportunity?

First, once again, the Cavaliers need to start winning right away because it is important for the young players not to start developing a losing mentality. That’s why many teams that inhabit the lottery every year remain there. The continued losing permeates the organization.

The second reason is that by the time the project starts becoming a legitimate player, his rookie contract has expired. Therefore, the team has to make the decision to tie a non-proven player up to a long-term contract.

The key word for most of the players who will be picked during the draft is “potential”, and Grant can’t afford to wait for these guys to develop. He needs someone who can step in to the small forward spot, thus rendering Alonzo Gee to the bench.

They need someone who can play in the post and can score as well.

They have assets to trade. Grant has four picks in the draft at his disposal and also the wild card could be Anderson Varejao, a very good big man who has had a problem playing at the same time as Thompson.

No matter what happens tomorrow night in the lottery selection or after the actual draft itself, the Cleveland Cavaliers have to be a much improved team. The pressure is on Chris Grant to make that happen.

Draft Prospects Should Have Fans Wanting Cavs to Win

Around this time of year, many fans of the Cleveland Cavaliers start hoping for losses, so the wine and gold have a better chance of improving their position in the NBA draft lottery.

With every loss, these people shout with glee, happy that the Cavs dropped another game.

This year, that’s not smart.

Why? Because of two reasons. First, what most fans don’t understand is that winning breeds winning, and the rest of this season should be about establishing a winning attitude for the 2013-14 season.

The second reason is that this year, more than perhaps the last few seasons, there isn’t a clear-cut first pick in the draft, not that Cleveland can sink low enough to have the best chance of getting the first selection.

This year is one of those seasons where there are very few finished products available to teams having one of the top five selections in late June. You can almost call this year’s draft a crapshoot.

For example, right now if the standings remained where they are and the lottery held to form, the Cavs would have the 7th pick in the selection process. Several mock drafts have GM Chris Grant taking Kentucky big man Nerlens Noel, who is 6’11” and weighs a whopping 211 pounds or UNLV forward Anthony Bennett.

Noel has missed at least half of this year’s season with a knee injury and obviously needs to bulk up to be able to play and contribute at the NBA level. Tyler Zeller, the Cavs’ rookie center, weighs 250 pounds and is still getting pushed around by veteran big men on a nightly basis.

Just think what would happen to Noel. And with a young core of Kyrie Irving, Tristan Thompson, and Dion Waiters, the wine and gold need to win as soon as next season. Noel probably won’t be able to be a real contributor for a few years.

That’s the challenge for Grant. Not only does he need to find someone good coming out of college, but someone who can contribute to the team as soon as next season. Taking a project doesn’t help this young team in the short-term.

Bennett may be a better choice because he has an NBA body (6’7″ 240 pounds). The problem with him though is he may be a tweener, too small to play power forward and not quick enough to play small forward. Right now, his offensive game is more like the former, and the Cavs already have Thompson.

That’s the point. If you look at the players ranked from 4-12 that are likely to come out in this year’s draft, there are no finished products. While that may be true of most years, this year is really a gamble.

Looking at the top ten prospects projected to come out this season, it shows seven freshmen and three sophomores. Of those who have spent two years in college, one, Georgetown’s Otto Porter is ranked in the top three and probably won’t be available to the Cavs. The other two are Cody Zeller (brother of Tyler) and Alex Len of Maryland, who needs to get stronger to play in the NBA.

The point is it is not likely that the Cavs will get anyone who can provide a huge boost for next season. And they need a huge boost if they want to challenge for the playoffs next season.

This might be one of those years it may be better to deal with teams looking to move someone for salary cap relief.

Following the Oklahoma City model likely won’t be possible with this year’s college crop.