Tag: MLB pennant race

Are Tribe’s Post-Season Chances Done?

After Carlos Carrasco left Saturday’s game with the Detroit Tigers with a broken bone in his hand, The Plain Dealer’s Paul Hoynes wrote that the Cleveland Indians’ playoff chances ended before the post-season even began.

We aren’t going to get into whether or not the column was appropriate, nor are we going to discuss the reactions to the piece in the Tribe clubhouse.

We did want to analyze whether or not the Indians’ really do not have a chance once the post-season begins the first week in October.

Perhaps as little as five years ago, losing two starting pitchers from a team that leads the American League in ERA could have been a death blow to that squad’s World Series hopes.

But baseball has changed over the past few seasons, and in the playoffs, the bullpen is becoming more and more important as managers bring in one flamethrower after another to work one inning in October.

Certainly, the Tribe will need its ace, Corey Kluber, to give them a lot of innings in the games he starts, much like Madison Bumgarner does for the Giants.  Terry Francona will need Kluber to go deep in games, because he will lean on his bullpen heavily in the games he doesn’t start.

From there on out, Francona will be happy with at least five innings from his starting pitchers and then he will turn the game over to his bullpen where he can pull a page out of Joe Torre’s book and ask his three best relief pitchers, Bryan Shaw, Cody Allen, and Andrew Miller, to give him four outs each instead of the three he usually asks for in the regular season.

Trevor Bauer would probably be the game two starter, and if he is throwing strikes, could be another guy who can soak up some innings.  For all of Bauer’s inconsistency, especially after the all star break, when he is on, he can be dominant.

Our guess is if the other two starters, Josh Tomlin and Mike Clevinger, can give Tito four solid innings, the skipper will be satisfied.

That’s because the post-season roster will have either eight or nine bullpen options, depending on what Francona feels comfortable with.

It’s also why Tito has been conducting some tryouts over the last month to see who will be part of his playoff relief corps.

Obviously, Dan Otero will be one of those members, as will Zack McAllister, who has been much more effective over the last six weeks.

We also believe Kyle Crockett will give the Indians an extra left-hander in the ‘pen in the post-season.

The last two spots are up for grabs, and the frontrunners are probably veteran Jeff Manship and rookie Perci Garner, who the manager has gone to in some very high leverage situations lately.

His strikeout of Victor Martinez on Saturday, with a man on third in a scoreless game, may have clinched the spot for him.

Without a doubt, it would be easier for the Indians with four starters who can give the team at least six innings throughout the post-season, but that ship has sailed.

However, we can definitely see a scenario where the pitching burden is put more on the bullpen in October, and that gives the Cleveland Indians just as good of a chance for success as they would have if the starting rotation was intact.

MW

 

Tribe Set For Post-Season Race

The Cleveland Indians enter the last month of the regular season with a 4-1/2 game lead over the Detroit Tigers in the AL Central Division.

The magic number is 26.

All in all, the Tribe is in pretty good shape.

They fortified the roster by making a waiver deal to bring Coco Crisp back to the wigwam, and considering the trades that were made in August, that has to be considered a solid move.

After all, the Orioles just traded for former Indian Michael Bourn.  Who would you rather have?

Crisp is the probable roster replacement for Abraham Almonte who is ineligible for the post-season due to his suspension for PEDs earlier this season.

The veteran switch-hitter did have a 778 OPS away from the pitcher friendly, dank Oakland ballpark this season, so he can still contribute with the bat and is more than adequate in the field as long as that field is leftfield.

The bullpen is also much improved from the end of July, partially because of Andrew Miller’s dominance, and also because some of the pitchers who were struggling seem to have righted themselves.

Zack McAllister looks like the guy who was a late inning dude during the first half of last season.  He got a huge out Monday night with the bases loaded and two out in the 10th inning, and over the last two weeks has been real good.

And Jeff Manship is also getting hitters out giving Terry Francona an early option if he needs to go to his ‘pen.  Mike Clevinger has also contributed, although it looks as though he may be getting stretched out as a starter again next week.

The starting rotation also seems to be out of the funk it was in since the All Star break.  Corey Kluber has established himself as a contender for a second Cy Young Award, and it was a good sign that Danny Salazar pitched well last weekend in Texas.

Saturday is a big start for him to see if he is back on track.  Trevor Bauer has put together back-to-back solid efforts, and Carlos Carrasco has been the best starter outside of Kluber since the break.

Josh Tomlin looks like he is out of the rotation at this point after he was cuffed around again against the Twins.  Our guess is Clevinger will take his turn on Tuesday night, going as long as he can before the bullpen takes over.

We also think that the Indians will bring up either Ryan Merritt or Shawn Morimando to back up Clevinger at least early on.  The way Tomlin has pitched, he should be relegated to mop up duties at this point.

This team still needs to win games to make the last two weeks of the schedule as meaningless as they can.

Remember, 13 of Cleveland’s last 16 games are against the Tigers and the Royals, and even though the Tribe has handled both team well this year, if the Indians keep winning, those teams will be desperate.

On the other hand, if Francona’s group can have let’s say a six or seven game lead going into those last 16 contests, it puts KC and Detroit into a position where they would have to sweep.

We have always maintained a five game lead on Labor Day is pretty safe, and the Indians can accomplish that with a good weekend against the Marlins, because the Tigers and Royals square off at the same time.

The front office has fortified the roster, now it’s up to the players.  And if the starting pitching is back on track, the Tribe will be pouring some champagne in their clubhouse this month.

MW