Counting Down The Magic Numbers And What About Cobb?

September baseball is so cool when the team you follow is a contender. Scoreboard watching. Counting down the magic number. It’s all part of following baseball at a time when football is starting to consume the public.

Especially here in northeast Ohio.

With the new playoff set up in baseball, there are several magic numbers to watch. First and foremost, most people look at winning the division, because that’s what fans have been trained to do.

Currently that number is 12. When the two teams behind you play each other, one wants one team to win two out of three, the worst-case scenario is for one team to sweep. But last weekend the Royals swept the Twins, meaning Kansas City picked up ground when the Guardians lost to two of three to the Dodgers.

With Cleveland now holding a share of the best record in the American League, we are sure the Guardians would like to finish with one of the two best records in the league, thus being able to advance right to the Division Series, which is best-of-five, with the Guards have the home field advantage.

Right now, Houston is in first place in the West, and Cleveland is 5.5 games ahead of them. This means the magic number to bypass the Wild Card Series, best-of-three, is 13, with the Astros finishing the regular season with three games at Progressive Field.

And of course, there is another magic number associated with just getting into the post-season “tournament”, meaning the Guardians would be no worse than the sixth seed in the AL, currently held by the Twins, who hold a three-game lead over Detroit and four over Seattle and Boston.

That number would be 8, since Cleveland took the season series from Detroit, 7-6.

The penultimate trip of the regular season was a success if only because the Guardians went into KC, their closest rivals, and took two of three. They salvaged one game in Los Angeles, and then did what had to be done in Chicago against the team that seems in line to shatter the record for losing, which was symbolic for the expansion New York Mets, who famously went 40-120.

Now, there is only one trip left, a three-game trek to St. Louis next weekend. Otherwise, Steven Vogt’s squad spends the rest of their slate at home, but they don’t get any days off until they return from the trip.

That means the pitching staff gets no rest for another week and a half. Because Gavin Williams couldn’t get out of the first last Saturday and Ben Lively took a line drive off the thigh and pitched just two innings Tuesday, and yesterday, Matthew Boyd couldn’t get through the 5th, so the bullpen has been taxed. Again.

And add to that, Alex Cobb’s problems. Yes, he’s pitched well in his last two starts, but he’s also been out with a cracked fingernail and a blister. Can he make some starts on turn in the last two and a half weeks?

We are sure the management would feel better about him in the post-season if he could do just that.

We didn’t anticipate conversations about the playoffs before this season started, but it is certainly fun to have them. Time to enjoy the games AND the scoreboard watching.

Guardians’ Biggest Surprise? Division Is Up For Grabs

Baseball’s unofficial half way point of the season has arrived, and the Cleveland Guardians are just two games out of first place in the American League Central Division.

Is that a surprise? That really depends on how you view it.

We felt the Guardians would finish slightly below the .500 mark this season, projecting them with 79 victories. Since they are 46-44 right now, a mere two games above the break even point, they really cannot be considered shocking.

However, we are surprised they sit just two games out of first place.

What is eye opening is that the favorites coming into the season, the Chicago White Sox, have battled injuries and bad defense and sit at 46-46, a game behind Cleveland and three games behind the division leading Minnesota Twins.

So really, the surprise is the mediocrity of the division, not the Guardians’ record.

Still, the Guards have battled through a number of rainouts and therefore, doubleheaders, and a shift in the organizational philosophy, starting to depend more and more on a healthy farm system to replace non-productive players.

Steven Kwan, who did not have a big league at bat coming into the season, has played in 78 of the team’s 90 games, and has hit .279 with a .361 on base percentage.

Oscar Gonzalez played in 32 games before being injured and another player without MLB experience coming into the season, Richie Palacios, has been in 39 games.

And no doubt, Nolan Jones should be the next rookie to hit the 20 game plateau.

You would think unless some of the younger guys hit a wall, playing an extra 20 games in a season, the Guardians should be better in the second half because of the experience they have gained thus far.

The health of the pitching staff has been good (knock on wood). Only Aaron Civale has been on the injured list to date and he is currently on the shelf. Cleveland has only used eight starters this year, mostly because another rookie, Konnor Pilkington has been slotted in as the doubleheader starter.

He earned that role by being solid when Civale was injured earlier in the season.

However, with Civale out again, and more twin bills coming, the depth of the organization will be tested. We would guess another rook, right-hander Peyton Battenfield might get the next look, unless a trade is made.

Whatever the organizations’ plan was for this season should be adjusted because the division hasn’t played out how most people thought and is very much up for grabs. Even though the Guardians are in some ways conducting tryouts for young players, they are in the mix for a post-season spot.

We aren’t suggested going all in on a rental player, but we are sure the front office will be looking for players who can help now and over the next few seasons.

And remember, Cleveland still has a glut of middle infielders on their 40 man roster, and will need to clear more spots to protect more players coming through what now maybe the best farm system in the sport.

The big surprise is that no one has taken the AL Central Division and ran with it. Cleveland is right there. And maybe it wasn’t in the plans in March or April, but the Guardians are a contender.

Let’s hope the brass thinks they are too.

Tough Three Week Stretch For The Tribe.

No one can or should complain about a 5-3 start for the Cleveland Indians. As former major leaguer and broadcaster Mike Hegan used to say, if you win three out of every five, you end the season at 96 wins, and that gets you in the playoffs more often than not.

After losing last night, if the Tribe wins tonight, they will have accomplished that at least for the first ten games of the season.

But the next three weeks should give us an idea of how good the 2021 Cleveland Indians are.

Through May 2nd, the Tribe takes on a quartet of teams who are projected to be serious contenders to be playing baseball in October: The White Sox (8 more games), The Reds (3), the Yankees (4), and the Twins (3).

Chicago and Minnesota rank 3rd and 4th in the American League in runs scored per game (Cleveland is 7th) while the Reds led the NL in scoring. To be fair, they haven’t faced the Cleveland staff, which is tied for the league lead in ERA with the Twins.

While the Tigers’ offense ranks 14th in runs, perhaps because they have played six games vs. the Indians’ staff, let’s look at the Royals. KC has scored 37 runs in seven games, ranking sixth in the AL at 5.29 per game.

However, in the two games against the Indians’ pitching staff, they scored five runs in two games. So, when they aren’t facing Cleveland, they are averaging 6.4 runs per contest, which would be second in the Junior Circuit.

It will be interesting to see how the Pale Hose, Reds, and Twins fair against the Tribe staff, which hasn’t allowed more than five runs in a contest to date.

And while the Cleveland hitters knocked around the Detroit pitching staff, the series in the Windy City will see Indians’ hitters facing some accomplished hurlers like Lucas Giolito, Dallas Keuchel, and Lance Lynn, while they will also probably see the Reds’ Luis Castillo in the last game in the Queen City.

We have already noted the Twins’ pitching ranks tied for first with the Tribe in ERA, and the Yankees are currently third. Will the Tribe be able to score runs against real good pitchers, which honestly, the Indians have not faced yet.

And will the contact Cleveland hitters have been making, they have still struck out the least amount of times in the league, suit them well and can it continue against top flight pitching?

Look, we aren’t downgrading the Tribe’s success to date. We have always said when folks have complained about beating bad teams, would they rather they lose to them? Of course not, there is something to be said for beating teams you are supposed to have success against.

Unfortunately, the schedule makers have only allowed Cleveland 38 opportunities to play the Royals and Tigers, meaning there are 124 other contests on the slate.

There is an old baseball adage that says you split with the contenders and beat up on the poor teams on the schedule, so we aren’t looking for Terry Francona’s team to dominate over the next three weeks, although that would be nice.

They just need to hold their own against them. And as we said, we are anxious to see how the lineup cobbles together runs against the likes of pitchers like Giolito, who has pitched well vs. the Tribe in the past two seasons, and Lynn.

That might give us a truer picture of how the 2021 edition of the Indians will fare this season.

Tribe Coming Down The Stretch. What Does That Mean In 2020?

The Cleveland Indians start play on Sunday with just 21 games remaining in this COVID abbreviated season. And they are in the midst of a pennant race, or are they?

Currently, the Tribe is a half game behind the Chicago White Sox, who sit in first place and they are virtually tied with Minnesota for second place.

With eight teams in the American League making the playoffs, it would be shocking in all three Central Division leaders didn’t advance to the post-season. There are no first round byes, so the trio is playing for playoff seeding and right now, the Sox would take on the Yankees, the Indians would get the Houston Astros, and Twins would take on Oakland.

Chicago and Cleveland would be designated as the home team for each game of the first round, best of three set, because the Indians have the edge by percentage points over Minnesota, and would be designated as the Central Division’s second place team, with the Twins getting a wild card position.

Of course, the lack of separation between the three teams make this situation very fluid. By the end of today, the Indians could be the 7th seed as a wild card, or the third seed as division leader.

Cleveland has a three game series at Target Field next weekend against the Twins, and host a four game set vs. the Pale Hose the last week of the season. The Tribe is currently 3-4 vs. Minnesota and are 4-2 against the Sox.

The White Sox host the Twins for a four game set, after the Tribe plays Rocco Baldelli’s squad, and of course, has the four game set in Cleveland, while the Twins have seven straight games vs. the other two contenders, followed by three against the NL Central leading Cubs.

We will know a lot about the Twins after that potentially brutal 10 game stretch.

Within the three teams, the young White Sox have fared the worst so far, going 4-8 against the other two top teams in the Central. They have dominated everyone else, going 20-7 against the rest of the schedule.

Minnesota has fared the best, going 8-5 in games between the three squads, with Cleveland being 5-6.

Chicago has ridden their offense so far, ranking second in the AL in runs scored per game at 5.26. But in six games against the Cleveland pitching staff, they’ve scored just 17 tallies, and that’s just 2.8 per contest.

The Twins have had a lot of injuries to date, which has hurt their highly touted offense. They’ve had Josh Donaldson for just 11 games and catcher Mitch Garver for just 17, so they rank just 11th in runs scored per game at 4.38.

FYI, the Indians average just 4.18 runs/game.

Against, the Tribe, Minnesota has scored only 18 runs in seven contests. That’s 2.6 per game.

So, while the AL Central top tier will probably all make it to October, that doesn’t mean the games aren’t important. Having the opportunity to bat last in the first three games during the post-season is important.

As for the overall AL post-season raced, it’s not much of one. Currently, Baltimore and Detroit are the first two teams looking in, and they are both three games behind the eighth spot, with Seattle four games out. With only between 20-25 games remaining, that will be tough to make up.

Both of those squads are below .500, so the Indians need to only win six games to probably be in, while we figure around 35-25 will get you home field for the first round. To do that, Cleveland needs to go 11-10 the rest of the way.

The bigger thing to watch for the Tribe is how they play against the Twins, Cubs, and White Sox coming down the stretch. Those are the best team remaining on the schedule.

We know Cleveland can beat the likes of Kansas City, Pittsburgh, and Detroit, but they are 5-8 against the three teams mentioned before (meaning they are 19-7 against everyone else).

It’s not September baseball as we know it because of the expanded playoff system. Can you imagine the excitement about the division race, under the normal format? Because likely one and perhaps, two teams could be left out, and the wild card teams would have just the one game to get to the Division Series.

Still, the Tribe has questions. Can their hitting survive games where better pitchers are facing them? Can the bullpen remain solid? Can they find some production out of the outfield?

That’s the reason to watch these last 21 games, even if it seems the Indians will qualify for the playoffs.

Is The Tribe Still A Contender? You Bet!

Anyone who thinks the Minnesota Twins are going to sit on their laurels after winning the American Central Division in 2019 will probably be sadly mistaken.

The Twins seem determined to defend their title after signing one of the best free agents available in former MVP Josh Donaldson, ranked 5th best on MLBTradeRumors.com.

Minnesota scored the second most runs in the American League a year ago, and they just added another superior hitter to their lineup.

The Chicago White Sox have been very active in the free agent market this off-season, most notably signing Yasmani Grandal, Edwin Encarnacion, and southpaw Dallas Keuchel, leading many to believe it will be a three team race in the AL Central.

Meanwhile, the Cleveland Indians have signed 2B Cesar Hernandez.

If you look at offense, the Twins scored 170 more runs than the Indians, and the Tribe scored 61 more than the Pale Hose. Even adding Grandal and Encarnacion, that’s a tough number to catch.

While it seems unreachable for the Indians to catch up to Minnesota in runs scored, one path to closing the gap would be a complete season by Jose Ramirez, and a better season from Francisco Lindor.

Ramirez wound up with a solid season in ’19 (.255, 23 HR, 83 RBI, 806 OPS), but compared to his 2017 and 2018 campaigns (957 OPS in ’17 and 939 in ’18) it pales. A return to those previous two years (he is only 27) would greatly improve the Cleveland attack.

On the other hand, the Indians can’t expect the same season out of 34-year-old Carlos Santana, who had the best season of the year (911 OPS). By the same token, Minnesota’s best hitter, Nelson Cruz, will be 39 in 2020.

Chicago’s free agent hitters are 32 (Grandal) and 37 years old (Encarnacion), so neither should be expected to do better than a year ago. Where the Sox should gain is with three young, impact bats in Yoan Moncada (25), Eloy Jimenez (23), and Luis Robert (22).

The Indians’ edge is in the pitching department, allowing almost .6 runs per game less than the Twins, and 1.11 less than Chicago.

Certainly, the continued development of Aaron Civale and Zach Plesac will be key to maintaining that edge, as well as a retooled bullpen.

It would seem the Indians still have the best pitching in the division. Minnesota replaced Kyle Gibson and Martin Perez with Homer Bailey and Rich Hill, and the White Sox figure to be better, but lowering by more than a full run?

Based on run differential, the difference between the Indians and Twins was only four games, Minnesota had the profile of a team winning 97 games (they won 101), while Cleveland should have won 93 contests, which they did.

So, the gap isn’t as large as you think it is.

The White Sox won 69 games, so even with a roster upgrade and the further development of some very good looking young players, that’s still an awful big number to make up.

We would think the White Sox will still be a factor in the race, but not quite ready to compete with the Twins and Indians.

That’s why the Indians should still be looking to add a bat, particularly an outfielder. They shouldn’t be thinking the way to go is unproven hitters like Greg Allen, Delino DeShields, Bradley Zimmer, and Daniel Johnson.

The Cleveland pitching gives it a solid chance to return to the post-season in 2020.

It’s A Pennant Race For Tribe, But Relax

It’s late August, and the Cleveland Indians are in a pennant race.

Actually, they are in two races. Most importantly, the AL Central Division is up for grabs, with the Minnesota Twins having a 2-1/2 game lead over the Tribe with 37 games left to play.

The two teams have six more games with each other, with an equal split between Cleveland and Minneapolis.

The Indians also are involved in a race for the wild card berths. They hold the top spot right now (meaning they would host the game) and lead Oakland by 2-1/2 games and Boston by eight in those standings.

We understand scoreboard watching is fun and it is interesting to see how Minnesota, Tampa Bay, Oakland, and Boston are doing on a daily basis, but we would caution it is too early to be overly concerned.

Why? Because there is a long way to go. And despite what some people think, none of the other teams are going to go 37-0 from here on out. All five teams, including the Indians are going to lose games.

The old adage is true. These teams want to just keep winning series. They can’t afford to panic losing games. Heck, before Sunday’s win against the Yankees, the Indians had just lost four of five.

Yeah, they went from a half game up to 2-1/2 down, but they are well within striking distance.

A good week for the Indians and a bad week for the Twins would put Terry Francona’s squad right back into first place.

Of course, this is all based on the Indians continuing to pile up victories, and after this week’s series with the Mets, 10 of the next 13 games for the Tribe are against the Royals, Tigers, and White Sox.

Likely, the final standings will come down to can the Twins dominate the Royals and Tigers like the Indians did, and can the Tribe improve their performance against the White Sox.

Cleveland has won 12 of 13 games vs. Detroit and won 10 of the last 13 against Kansas City. To date, the Twins are 6-3 vs. Detroit and 9-3 against the Royals.

However, the Indians have struggled vs. Chicago so far, losing seven of 12, where as Minnesota is 7-3 in contests with the Pale Hose.

For the Tribe, it could come down to how many times they see Lucas Giolito, and how they fare against him. He has dominated Cleveland in his two starts in 2019, while the Twins knocked him around when they faced him in late July.

Regardless, they have to improve their performance against Chicago. To be fair, they haven’t played the Sox since the offense started putting up more runs.

It’s been awhile since there has been an honest to goodness pennant race in Cleveland, so obsessing about the standings on a day by day basis isn’t healthy.

Until the two teams meet at Target Field on September 6th-8th, look at where the Tribe is on a weekly basis, that is as long as the Indians are winning. A losing streak is cause for concern for sure, but if the Indians keep winning series, they will be fine.

And it could be one of those years where winning 95 games doesn’t win the division. That’s the way it goes sometimes.

Other AL Contenders Have Dominated Vs. Bad Teams Too

The Cleveland Indians, thought by many to be out of the playoff competition in mid May, start today’s game against Kansas City 20 games over the .500 mark at 62-42, and have a four game lead over the second wild card spot ahead of Boston and Oakland.

Where they once trailed by 11-1/2 games in the division standings, they are today just one game behind Minnesota in the Central Division standings.

They have accomplished this by simply dominating the lower echelon teams in the American League. The Tribe has gone 37-11 against the five worst teams in the AL: Kansas City, Detroit, Baltimore, Toronto, and Seattle.

There are those who will say this is fool’s gold. The Indians aren’t really contenders, they are the product of a soft schedule and cannot compete with the best teams in the league.

This ignores their 10-9 record against Boston, Houston, Minnesota, and the New York Yankees, all of whom Cleveland will play in the next three weeks.

In the interest of fairness, the Tribe is 2-8 vs. Oakland and Tampa, two other contenders for the playoffs, but all of those games came before this resurgence started after a loss to Boston on Memorial Day.

Since then, Cleveland has gone 36-15 in a stretch that included two games with Boston, three with the Yankees, and six with the Twins.

Going 37-11 against any five teams is a challenge. Heck, it’s Major League Baseball. It isn’t supposed to be easy, no matter how bad the competition.

At the end of June, the Indians lost a series on the road to Baltimore, a team certain to lose more than 100 games this season.

We looked at the other playoff contenders to see how they fared against the five teams Terry Francona’s squad has dominated.

The Yankees have piled up a 10-2 record against the Orioles and overall is 25-8 against the lowly five. They lost two of three to Detroit, where the Indians have won 12 out of 13.

Houston has played the least number of games against this group, mainly because only one of them is in the Western Division. The Astros have fared similar to Cleveland, going 18-4, winning nine of ten vs. Seattle.

Minnesota has the same number of losses (11), with 27 wins. They won all six games against Baltimore, but are a combined 16-9 vs. KC, DET, and TOR, where the Indians are 28-7.

They have a lot of games coming up against the Royals and Tigers, playing them in a combined 20 more games.

Boston has played the second most games against the quintet, but they haven’t fared as well as Cleveland, going 30-16. They’ve lost six games against the Blue Jays and five more to the Orioles. Perhaps they have an issue against birds.

Tampa Bay is 20-10, going just 4-3 against the Royals and 8-4 vs. Baltimore. They have yet to play the Mariners, and have 18 games left vs. the Orioles and Blue Jays.

Oakland caught Seattle early in the year when they were hot, so they are 8-7 with four to play. Toronto has also been tough, taking all six from the A’s, leading to a 17-14 record.

So, outside of Oakland, all of the contenders have beaten the living daylights out of the also ran teams.

The difference for the Indians, is they only have nine games remaining against the Royals and Tigers, and are done with the other three squads.

The Indians shouldn’t be condemned for beating the “bums”, they simply are doing what they should.

If they can hold their own through the middle of August after playing Houston, Minnesota, Boston, and the Yankees, they should be just fine.

And that’s assuming everyone else can match Cleveland’s dominance against the lowly five.

Tribe’s Remaining Schedule Could Get Easier After Trade Deadline

For the last couple of months, we have focused on the soft schedule the Cleveland Indians were facing starting on June 11th, and the opportunity it gave them to get back in the post-season chase.

It doesn’t necessarily mean the Tribe will be facing a brutal schedule once the Houston Astros come to town next Tuesday night to begin a three game series, though.

We understand that between then and August 18th, Cleveland will play three against the Astros, four games at Target Field against the Twins, three home games vs. Boston, and four more at the bandbox called Yankee Stadium.

In between the Houston set and the trip to Minneapolis, there are six home games against the Angels and Rangers.

Of course, those games will be played after the July 31st trade deadline, so what will those teams look like when they arrive at Progressive Field?

Both teams are on the edge of the race right now, 5-1/2 (LA) and 6-1/2 (Texas) games behind Oakland for the second wild card spot.

It’s quite conceivable that one, if not both, organizations will be sellers before the calendar turns to August, meaning their rosters could be weakened by the team the Indians play them.

That’s the state of the American League the past couple of seasons, there are the have’s and have not’s.

The National League has 14 of the 15 teams within 7 games of the second wild card spot, the AL has nine.

What does this have to do with the Indians?

It means that after the Yankee series is done on August 18th, Terry Francona’s crew could go another month where the only contending teams they play are Tampa (August 30th-September 1st) and Minnesota (September 6th-8th in Minneapolis, and September 13th-15th in Cleveland) until the last nine games of the season.

While the Indians have done a remarkable job against the also-rans on the schedule, going 24-7 against the Reds, Rangers, Tigers, Royals, Blue Jays, and Orioles, and they still have six vs. Toronto and Kansas City before Houston arrives, it’s not easy.

Just last week, we witnessed the Twins losing two games to the New York Mets, and heck, the Indians themselves lost a series to the lowly Baltimore squad.

You just can’t take for granted that you will consistently beat the bad teams, so you have to give the Tribe credit for seizing the opportunity to right the ship and put themselves in position to make the post-season.

We don’t care who you are playing, but 29-11 in a 40 game span is very impressive.

Remember the last week of the 2005 season, when the Indians won just one game against a bad Tampa team and a White Sox squad that had the division wrapped up.

It is true the Tribe struggled against the A’s (1-5) and the Rays (1-3 to date) in 2019, but they did split with Houston on the road, and took a three game series against the Red Sox on the road and did the same in Cleveland against New York.

The old saying about beating up the bums, and splitting with the contenders very much applies to the Indians.

It is weird that people are complaining that the Tribe is beating the bad teams. Would they rather they lose to them?

Plus, if it was easy, wouldn’t every good team go on 10-12 game winning streaks all the time?

It isn’t easy, and give the Indians credit for dominating these teams. However, the rest of the schedule isn’t daunting once you get past the middle of August.

If you wanted to experience a pennant race, you will have that opportunity.

Tribe Still In Race, But Identify Problem Areas

After last night’s loss to the Minnesota Twins, the doomsayers were out in full force concerning the Cleveland Indians.

They dropped to 7.5 games behind the Twins. They dropped out of the second wild card spot. It’s time to start trading off assets because they should look toward 2020.

But going into the series, we felt getting one win was all that was needed. Certainly, it would have been better to win the series or sweep it for that matter, but the reality is the Tribe only lost one game in the standings, so they are still very much in it.

This series should send a clear message to the front office as to what needs to be addressed between now and the end of the year if you want to make the playoffs and once you get there, make a run.

The Twins have the second best ERA (3.92) in the American League, much better than the teams the Indians have played over the last month: Baltimore (15th-5.70), Kansas City (12th-5.03), Detroit (11th=5.00), and Texas (8th-4.80).

Cleveland scored just nine runs in the three games, so really, they were kind of fortunate to win one.

That’s because they simply don’t have enough solid bats in the lineup. Against good pitching, guys like Jake Bauers (although he had a key double today) and Jason Kipnis struggle.

Bauers was 1 for 10 in the series, Kipnis was 2 for 11 with both hits being squibbers to the left side of the infield. The only multi-hit games in the set by Indians’ players were Jose Ramirez’ two hit game on Friday and Tyler Naquin had two hits today.

Ramirez was an offensive bright spot with four hits, including a double and a home run.

And while everyone loved Bobby Bradley’s long home run on Saturday, the truth is he went 1 for 9 in the three games.

It’s nothing we haven’t said all year. The lineup needs to add some solid bats. Perhaps one can come from the farm (Daniel Johnson, Yu Chang?) and the other through a deal.

With Ramirez showing signs of good things to come and the right field being a solid platoon these days (Naquin and Jordan Luplow are doing well), the targets should be 2B, LF, and DH.

Another weakness that showed was the lack of bullpen depth.

Cleveland was the better team through six innings, but outside of Brad Hand and Adam Cimber, the rest of the relievers struggled.

Nick Goody, AJ Cole, Oliver Perez, and Tyler Clippard all allowed runs in the late innings to either give Minnesota a lead or let them extend a lead.

The Tribe needs another power arm to pitch in the 7th or 8th inning. Again, maybe some help comes from Columbus (James Karinchak, Cam Hill) and you can get another in trade.

One other thing that came from the series is maybe the Tribe discovered another ace in Shane Bieber. In kind of a must win game, Bieber was sensational today until some odd calls by replay umpires kind of did him in.

Bieber needed to keep the Twins off the scoreboard and he delivered six shutout frames, and maybe could’ve given them seven if not for the hit by pitch fiasco.

He made the All Star team, and could be the new 1-2 punch going forward with Mike Clevinger who also was very good in the series’ opener, and also has ace stuff.

So, the Tribe is still in the Central race, just 6.5 out and very much in the mix for a wild card. Keep in mind, they are also 11 games over .500.

It’s not like they are hovering around .500. Their starters can stop good offenses, the ones they will see in the post-season.

Now, it’s up to the front office to get Terry Francona what he needs. This could still be a fun late summer baseball-wise in Cleveland.

Is The Tribe A Playoff Certainty in ’19? Maybe Not

In writing about the Cleveland Indians, we have referred to them as the favorites to win the American League Central Division, pretty much assuming they will get to the playoffs in 2019.

The question today is–based on the current roster, is that a correct assumption? Or are we thinking with our heart instead of the head.

Last year’s Indians scored 80 more runs than their closest competitors, the Minnesota Twins, a year ago. They allowed 127 runs less than the Twins.

They were the closest to the Tribe in both of those categories in 2018, and not coincidentally, the Twins finished second in the division, 13 games behind Cleveland.

Since the season’s end, the Indians have lost four of their top six hitters in OPS: Michael Brantley, Edwin Encarnacion, Yan Gomes, and Yonder Alonso. Replacing them are question marks.

They also have cut ties with the players with the three highest OPS figures among the non-regular players–Josh Donaldson, Lonnie Chisenhall, and Yandy Diaz.

While pitching may rule in a short series, you have to score runs to get to the post-season. In the AL, the top five teams in runs scored all made the playoffs, and in the National League, five of the top seven teams in runs scored advanced.

By the way, the Twins were the highest scoring team in the AL last season that did not make the playoffs, and they added C. J. Cron and Nelson Cruz to their lineup, while substracting Robbie Grossman and Joe Mauer, who retired.

Cron (816 OPS) essentially replaces Logan Morrison, who had the Twins’ lowest OPS among regulars, while Cruz (850 OPS) would rank as Minnesota’s best hitter, and had an OPS over 100 points higher than Mauer.

It would not be a stretch to say the Twins may score more runs than the Indians in 2019. We like Eddie Rosario and Max Kepler a lot, and the latter in particular should improve on his 2018 numbers.

Where the Indians have a huge advantage is in the starting rotation, arguably all five of the Cleveland starters could have better years than any of the Twins’ rotation members.

We like Jose Barrios, but right now he would be the fifth starter for the Indians.

Looking at the two teams, we would say the Indians are banking on their rotation’s ability to hold opponents’ hitters down, so they can win a lot of games 3-2 and 4-3. That’s difficult to sustain over an entire season, and puts a lot of pressure on the Cleveland bullpen, which is also in a state of disarray.

The Twins, led by former Indians’ assistant general manager Derek Falvey, haven’t been super aggressive this off-season, but they have made moves to improve their ballclub, which we can’t say about the Tribe.

Chris Antonetti and Mike Chernoff shouldn’t be comfortable about ruling the division again next season, especially with uncertainty at pretty much every spot save for shortstop, second or third base (depending on where Jose Ramirez plays), and first base/DH (wherever Carlos Santana is).

While the Cleveland starting pitching is the most impressive and best unit among the two rosters, the gap has definitely narrowed. And spring training is less than a month away.

We also haven’t mentioned the Chicago White Sox who are wooing free agent all-star Manny Machado.

Perhaps we should scale back our “certainty” that the Indians will get back to the playoffs in ’19. They have a lot to do to be considered a lock.