At the end of the 2008 season, the Cleveland Indians were owed a player from the Milwaukee Brewers as a result of the C.C. Sabathia trade and they selected Michael Brantley as the player to be named later.

The then 21-year-old outfielder was coming off a season in which he hit .319 with a .395 on base percentage, and 28 stolen bases in 108 games at the AA level.

He looked a lot like a guy who could be next in line of leadoff hitting centerfielders, following the lineage of Kenny Lofton and Grady Sizemore.

Brantley’s bigger than Lofton at 6’2″ and 200 pounds, but his offensive game seemed more like his than Sizemore, who hit for more power out of the first spot in the batting order.

He struggled in his first taste of AAA pitching, his average dropping to .267 and his OBP being just .350.  Still, he walked more than he struck out in over 450 at bats.

He received a late season call up to Cleveland, and hit .313 with a .358 OBP.  At only 22, it seemed like a good start to a major league career.

Starting the year with the big club in 2010, he struggled and was sent back to Columbus where he hit .319 with a .395 OBP in 67 games.

He hasn’t approached those numbers in the big leagues since coming up to stay later in the ’10 season.

Last season, in almost 500 plate appearances, Brantley batted just .266 with a .318 on base average.  Not horrible numbers, but just not the profile of a good leadoff man.

Thus far in 2012, the left-handed hitter is batting .250 with a .321 on base percentage.  He was hot in the weekend series vs. the Angels, getting two hits or more in two of the three games.

Still, for his career, totalling over 1000 at bats, Brantley has a .316 OBP, a figure more suited to someone hitting in the bottom third of the batting order, not one who should be a table setter.

By contrast, Lofton reached base 36.2% of the time in his first year with the Indians in 1992, increased that figure to .408 the following season.  He finished his career with a .372 mark.

Sizemore had a .348 on base percentage in his first full year with the Tribe in 2005, and increased that to .375 in ’06.  He currently has a .357 OBP.

The point here is that both Lofton and Sizemore demonstrated a keen ability to get on base early in their careers.  They didn’t gain it through experience.

True, Lofton is one of the best leadoff guys in the history of the game, and Sizemore was definitely an impact hitter at the top of the order during his heyday of 2005-08.

But right now, Brantley doesn’t show much ability to be a consistent threat to get on base.  Again, he has picked it up in the last few games, but with over 1ooo at bats in the big leagues, getting on base a little under 32% of the time is not acceptable from the top of the order.

This isn’t to say Brantley can’t become a good offensive player in time.  He’s still just 25 years old.  However, it doesn’t appear he can be a very good leadoff man, despite looking the part.

In the American League, you need to have seven good hitters in the lineup to score enough runs to win.  Right now, the Tribe has five (Hafner, Cabrera, Santana, Choo, Kipnis) and Brantley isn’t one.

But he’s the man out of those playing now who may be able to become one.  It may just not be in the spot the Indians want him to hit in.

KM