The Rosario Dilemma

Last season, Amed Rosario was a key cog in the Cleveland Guardians winning the American League Central Division championship.

He was third in the league in hits with 180 and led the AL in triples with nine. He was a big reason the Guardians’ offense put pressure on opposing defenses. Along with leadoff man Steven Kwan and #3 hole hitter Jose Ramirez, the Guards would go first to third relentlessly with three speedsters at the top of the lineup.

Rosario isn’t an on base machine, because he rarely walks, but he hit .283 and had a .312 on base percentage, so he was effective where he was at.

However, the shortstop’s value as an everyday player comes from his batting average because as we said, he doesn’t walk, and he really isn’t an extra base hit machine either.

For example, last year Rosario slugged .403 about the same as Kwan. What makes Kwan a better than average offensive player was his .373 on base average, about 60 points higher than the man who follows him to the plate most nights.

FYI, Kwan’s OBP has dipped this season to .342.

The three seasons Rosario had an OPS+ of over 100 (that’s average), his batting averages were .287 (2019), .282 (2021), and .283 (2022). If he’s not hitting at around the .275 level, he’s a poor offensive player. Right now, he’s at 65.

Now you make think that’s true for everyone, but it’s not. Currently, Josh Naylor has an OPS+ of 109 and he’s batting just .253. But Naylor walks a bit more and has 16 extra base hits, making his slugging percentage .437.

The right-handed hitter currently has the worst OPS+ among Cleveland regulars, yes worse than Myles Straw (77), Mike Zunino (73), and Will Brennan (82). Another disappointment for the Guardians is free agent signee Josh Bell, and he’s at 92.

Cleveland lives with Straw’s below average offense (for how much longer, we will see) because he’s an elite defensive centerfielder, a Gold Glove winner a year ago.

Rosario is a below average defender. He ranks last on the Guardians in defensive runs saved, just behind Zunino. You can probably make the argument that of the shortstops currently on the big league roster, including Andres Gimenez, who played the position in the minor leagues, he’s the worst defensively.

That list would include Gabriel Arias, Tyler Freeman, and Brayan Rocchio, who has played a pair of games there.

So what gives?

We realize many people will use the argument that Rosario is a close friend of Jose Ramirez, who lobbied for a contract extension for him last season, but we refuse to believe that’s the reason, management keeps writing his name in the lineup.

We think it’s the usual patience vs. stubbornness we see from the organization all the time. They believe based on the past two seasons, Rosario will get hot any day now, and the team will reap the benefits.

But that’s the problem with hitters whose entire worth is based on batting average and another problem with players who don’t have an idea of the strike zone. Rosario’s strikeout to walk ratio for his career is 607:136, he’s never walked more than 31 times in a season.

His walk ratio is actually up this year (5.8% compared to his lifetime mark of 4.5%), but his strikeout rate (22.3%) is also higher (19.9%). Pitchers usually figure out they can get these guys out without throwing strikes, thus the effectiveness wanes.

We aren’t saying to “run away” from Rosario, as Francona likes to say. However, we are saying perhaps it’s time to see what Freeman and/or Arias can do with increased playing time.

That Rosario can be a free agent after this season, doesn’t help his argument.

Sputtering Offense Plaguing The Guardians

The Cleveland Guardians’ offense started off this season much like they ended last season. Not a lot of home runs, but a lot of base hits.

After Seattle’s Luis Castillo, one of the best pitchers in the game, held them to four hits in the season opener, the Guards had nine hits or more in six of the next nine contests and drew at least three walks in all of them.

In the next 23 games, Cleveland has had nine hits in just six games, and drawn at least three walks in just a dozen of them. When you aren’t hitting home runs, and Terry Francona’s squad is last in the American League in round trippers, if you aren’t getting men on base consistently, it is tough to have people cross the plate.

The Guardians averaged five runs per game in the first 10 games, since then, they’ve scored just 70 runs, an average of just over three per contest. It’s tough to win any games at any level, when you are getting just three runs per night.

Cleveland was 6-4 after ten games, and just 9-14 afterwards.

Bill James contended if you had a .350 on base percentage and a .450 slugging percentage, you were a very good offensive player. Not even Jose Ramirez can lay claim to those statistics, although he is close, with a .371 OBP and a .447 slugging average.

The Guards only have one hitter getting on base at a 35% clip and that is Steven Kwan, who has a .358 on base average. Besides Ramirez, they don’t have anyone even close to the .450 slugging percentage. The next closest is Mike Zunino at .397. More about him later.

Looking at the Guardians from a WAR standpoint, Zunino’s slugging is about all he is contributing as once again, Cleveland catchers rank last in the AL in this category.

Guards’ pitchers were 11th in the AL in wild pitches a year ago, and they are 2nd this season. And the catchers are second in the league in passed balls behind only the White Sox.

Also, Zunino’s back up, Cam Gallagher is just 2 for 27 with a bat in his hand, with two RBI, both coming in the first week of the season in Oakand.

The next worst position this year for Cleveland is shortstop. Amed Rosario is a slow starter, hitting .177 in April 2021, and .211 in April 2022. This year was no different as he batted just .227.

However, his strikeout rate is the highest since his rookie season (28.7%), and he’s leading the team in grounding into double plays, which he did a year ago. He’s also leading the Guardians in errors with six.

Hopefully, Rosario will start to get hot in May and resemble the hitter he was last season. He’s never going to walk a lot, but he did have 180 hits last season, and with the new rules aiding the running game, his speed could be an asset.

Remember, the Guardians went through a 13 game stretch at the end of August through early September a year ago where they scored just 26 runs. Hopefully, they will come out of it any day now.

The starting pitching seems to have come along with the starters consistently giving the team at least five innings. That has lessened the burden on the bullpen, which is still leaking oil a bit.

You know what would really help the pitching? Getting some runs early and then adding on.

First Checkpoint For The Guardians

Tomorrow is May 1st, and yesterday evening, the Cleveland Guardians played their 27th game of the season, the 1/6th point of the year. That’s the time we take our first overall view of the team.

Under Terry Francona, this first part of the year is the “feeling out” period. Look at Cleveland’s record at this point over the last six seasons:

2023: 13-14
2022: 13-14
2021: 14-13
2020: 17-10
2019: 15-12
2018: 15-12

The best record came in the pandemic shortened season of 2020. It’s an old baseball adage that you can’t win a pennant (now, post-season berth) in April, but you can lose one, and the Guardians certainly don’t screw up a season at the beginning.

So far, it’s the offense that hasn’t lived up to expectations. The Guards are currently 12th in the American League in runs scored at 3.85. The home run power, which the front office tried to address with the signing of Josh Bell, hasn’t materialized yet, as Cleveland ranks last in the league in round trippers.

What the Guards do well is walk, ranking second in the AL in bases on balls. They are 8th in on-base percentage, and 13th in slugging percentage. They get doubles and triples but no long balls.

Individually, only the great Jose Ramirez and Mike Zunino have performed up to expectations with the bat. The latter has struck out a ton, as advertised, but he’s walked a higher rate than ever.

Steven Kwan has gotten on base (.358 OBP), but so far, he hasn’t driven the ball, with only four extra base hits (three 2B, one 3B).

The players counted on for middle of the order production have all got off to slow starts. Josh Naylor is hitting .214 with 3 HR and 15 RBI (619 OPS). Bell is at .214, 3 HR, 13 RBI (714 OPS), and Oscar Gonzalez is at .188, 1 HR, 4 RBI (509 OPS) and is now sharing time in right field with Will Brennan.

Naylor is starting to look like a platoon player, going 2 for 22 vs. southpaws this year and his career mark vs. LHP is .199 with a 538 OPS. Unfortunately, right now the Guardians don’t have a right-handed hitting alternative.

The pitching ranks 7th in ERA, but the starting rotation has been riddled by injuries to Triston McKenzie and Aaron Civale. McKenzie has been out all year, while Civale has made just two appearances.

Compounding the injuries has been the relative ineffectiveness of Cal Quantrill (1-2, 5.40 ERA) and Zach Plesac (1-1, 7.59). Quantrill has made two solid starts, but also two poor ones, while Plesac has just one good one, his second outing vs. Seattle.

On the year, he has pitched 21-1/3 innings, and allowed a whopping total of 37 hits and 18 earned runs.

Last week saw the promotion of two of the Guardians’ top pitching prospects, lefty Logan Allen and right-hander Tanner Bibee. Both pitched very well, and if they continue to do so, the organization is going to have to make a decision.

The strength of the team has been pitching and the rotation is the backbone. Francona depends on the starters to eat innings, lessening the burden on the relief corps. The Guardians need Quantrill to pitch like he did a year ago, and Allen and Bibee to hold down the fort.

The ‘pen has been sporadic, but over the last week have started doing better. They have been allowing too many home runs. James Karinchak in particular has struggled, but Eli Morgan has pitched like he did early last season.

The Guardians need to get the offense going more consistently and have the starters pitch much better. It’s still early and history says Francona’s teams get better as the year goes on.

Hopefully, history repeats itself.

Impressions Of A Great Opening Weekend For Guardians

We were very impressed that the Cleveland Guardians went into Seattle, a playoff team a year ago, and took three of four in their opening series.

Especially because the Guards had all kinds of problems scoring runs vs. the Mariners last season. They scored just 11 runs in the seven contests against Seattle last season.

There were several positive things that caught our eye in baseball’s first weekend of the season, and yes, we know it’s just four games.

Guardians’ fans have to be impressed with Aaron Civale’s debut, throwing seven, two-hit innings at the Mariners. The right-hander was on a track for an all-star berth in 2021, when he was leading the AL in wins at the time of his injury (he was 10-2 with a 3.44 ERA).

He made just 20 starts a year ago with a variety of injuries and threw just 97 innings. Getting back to his ’21 form would be a big boost to the starting rotation, particularly since Triston McKenzie could miss as much as two months.

What about Tim Herrin’s major league debut on Sunday? The 26-year-old southpaw faced four batters and struck them all out. It’s the ultimate small sample size, but if he can give Terry Francona and Carl Willis another left-handed option when Sam Hentges returns, that would be outstanding.

One of the things Cleveland lacked the past few years is any offense at all from the catching position. Mike Zunino isn’t a great offensive player either, but what he does more frequently than Austin Hedges or Luke Maile, is run into a pitch every once in a while, and sends it over the fence. He has 147 career homers.

Sunday, his three-run dinger gave the Guards a temporary lead. His lifetime batting average is just .201 and he strikes out, a lot. But the power does play.

Oh, and by the way, Bo Naylor went 5 for 13 over the weekend with two homers at Columbus.

The bullpen was also very impressive over the weekend, with James Karinchak’s hiccup on Opening Night the only blemish. In total, the relievers soaked up 14-2/3 innings, allowing just three earned runs.

That heavy toll can’t continue, but again, it’s only four games.

As for Karinchak, we don’t think it was a pitch clock issue to blame for his first outing, it was more that he couldn’t throw his curveball for a strike, and the Mariners took advantage.

Newcomer Josh Bell didn’t have a big weekend at the plate, going just 1 for 12, but he did walk six times, and avoiding making outs is a very good thing. We are sure the hits will start coming.

The only issues to keep an eye on are Zunino’s ability to block pitches, Cleveland had six wild pitches in the series (they had just 49 all last year). That’s something Hedges was outstanding at and it is easy to overlook.

We are sure Sandy Alomar Jr. will work with him on that.

Hunter Gaddis kept the ball in the park Friday night (he gave up 7 homers last year in 7 innings), but he also only gave Francona 3-2/3 innings, and Cal Quantrill couldn’t get out of the fifth.

We aren’t concerned about the latter because of his track record, but the Guards need some length out of Gaddis, if he’s going to stick around for a while.

It was a great opening weekend to be sure, but it’s a long, long season ahead of the Guardians. We are sure everyone prefers to be 3-1 rather than 1-3.

Guardians’ Roster Pretty Set Starting Camp

When we last saw the Cleveland Guardians, they lost a series deciding fifth game to the New York Yankees in the American League Division Series. They had a 2-1 series lead after a dramatic walk-off win in game 3 but couldn’t finish off the Bronx Bombers.

Still, they were the youngest team in baseball and went farther than anyone expected in the 2022 season.

This weekend, the Guards start a much-anticipated spring training, getting ready for a season which they hope will end with another Central Division title.

While the season could be memorable, this training camp likely will not be. After a major roster turnover last year, the front office and Terry Francona shouldn’t have too many decisions to make, of course, barring injuries.

From our point of view, there are only three decisions that need to be made: Backup catcher, extra infielder, and the last spot in the bullpen, probably a left-hander.

Mike Zunino was signed as a free agent over the winter and will serve as the primary catcher, assuming he is fully recovered from the thoracic outlet surgery on his left (non-throwing) arm done last year. Cleveland would like to have rookie Bo Naylor start at AAA to play everyday at the beginning of the season, so the second catcher on the roster is up in the air.

The team brought in former Royal Cam Gallagher (career OPS 656), Meibry Viloria (556), Zack Collins (623), and still has Bryan Lavastida, who opened last season with the big club.

Viloria and Collins are left-handed hitters which give them a platoon advantage, but with the Guardians’ organizational philosophy, it will come down to who the team trusts the most defensively and in handling the pitching staff.

We believe Gabriel Arias, Tyler Freeman, and Richie Palacios will vie for the two bench spots that are available. We know who the starters are and Will Brennan will likely take one bench spot. Arias played a little outfield at AAA and in winter ball, and Palacios played mostly outfield with the big club (he played three innings at 2B) and being able to play in the dirt and on the grass probably gives them an edge.

Freeman has strictly been an infielder in the minors and we believe the organization is higher on him than the other two long term, and because of that, they may want him to start the year playing everyday at Columbus.

As for the bullpen, it may come down to whether or not the staff wants a reliever who can soak up multiple innings in a game, which would give an edge to a Cody Morris or Konnor Pilkington, or do they want another lefty to team with Sam Hentges?

Many think 26-year-old southpaw Tim Herrin will get a long look. Herrin struck out 101 hitters in 69-1/3 innings last year between Akron and Columbus. He did have a 5.36 ERA in AAA last year, giving up six home runs in 47 innings.

Relievers who walk people and give up home runs don’t have a long shelf life in the big leagues. But Herrin is someone to watch in Arizona. As for Morris, the front office may want him stretched out as a starter in case he is needed in the major league rotation.

The exhibition games start a week from Saturday and some players could get extra opportunities because of the World Baseball Classic. As for that event, our sincere hope is no one from the Guardians gets injured playing in it.

Some Free Agent Bargains For Guards?

Tomorrow will be February 1st, and that means it’s just a matter of time before baseball fans hear the first sign of spring: “Pitchers and catchers report to spring training”.

The Cleveland Guardians filled two holes this off-season, signing 1B/DH Josh Bell and C Mike Zunino as free agents, and both figure to get a lot of playing time, at least early in the 2023 campaign.

However, there are still some free agents sitting out there and a few of them could help the Guardians, and they could probably be signed at a bargain price, which is always attractive to the Cleveland ownership.

Here are a few guys we would be interested in:

We know the organization is committed to their young outfielders: Steven Kwan, Myles Straw, Oscar Gonzalez, and Will Brennan. However, it’s tough to overlook a player who can get on base like Robbie Grossman, who actually was in the Cleveland camp a few years ago.

The veteran switch-hitter, now 33 years old, has a career on-base percentage of .346, and against southpaws in his career, has a 790 OPS and gets on base at a .377 clip. He had a tough season a year ago, split between the Tigers and Braves, batting just .209, but had a 772 OPS in ’21 with Detroit, belting 23 home runs.

If Brennan isn’t ready or isn’t getting regular at-bats, or Gonzalez is having strike zone issues, he’d be someone who could step in. And that would also allow Will Benson to get regular playing time at AAA.

Another former Tigers piques our interest in the pitching department. With Anthony Gose probably missing the entire season, the Guardians could use another lefty out of the bullpen to go with Sam Hentges. Andrew Chafin would seem to be an ideal fit.

He appeared in 64 games for the Tigers last season, compiling a 2.83 ERA and striking out 67 hitters in 57-1/3 innings. And he had a 1.83 ERA for Oakland and the Cubs in 2021.

In his career, he’s held left-handed batters to a .222 batting average and a 603 OPS and his marks vs. right-handed batters are similar (.231 average/655 OPS). He would give Terry Francona another veteran option in relief.

We get the Guards had a lot of success with players coming up from the minor leagues a year ago, but even though the Cleveland farm system is very strong, that doesn’t happen every season, so it would be nice to fill a hole here and there with veteran alternatives.

In the past few seasons, we felt the Guardians needed outfielders badly, but the performance of the young players last year filled most of the holes. And we still believe Straw will rebound with a much better offensive season than a year ago.

We also normally like to add another experienced starting pitcher, but the organization has a plethora of prospects who could make a spot start early in the season if need be. We saw most of them a year ago, hurlers such as Cody Morris, Konnor Pilkington, Hunter Gaddis, and Xzavion Curry.

Still, it wouldn’t hurt anything to take a shot at either Grossman or Chafin. They could give the Guardians a lot of bang for their buck.

Hard To Gauge What Guardians’ Young Players Will Do

The Cleveland Guardians surprised everyone in northeast Ohio and frankly in baseball as well by winning 92 games and the AL Central Division title last season.

That has their fans very excited for the 2023 season because, after all, with a young core of position players and pitching staff that had the 4th best ERA in the American League, why wouldn’t they?

They also seemed to take care of their weak spots in their lineup. The DH spot was a huge hole because Franmil Reyes collapsed, and the catching spot was completely devoid of any offense, as they signed 1B/DH Josh Bell and C Mike Zunino as free agents.

However, there is an old saying in the game that a player’s statistics will match those on the back of their baseball card, meaning players have track records, and usually they will produce close to what they’ve done in the past.

Unfortunately, very few Guardians’ have a history of performance because they are so young. Of course, we know Jose Ramirez, if healthy, will be in the mix for the AL MVP. He has finished in top five in the voting four times in the last six years.

And you know what you are going to get from Amed Rosario too. He going to hit around .280 with a 700 OPS, and he’s going to not walk much.

Even Josh Naylor has only one season with more than 250 at bats at the big-league level.

The newcomers have been around for a while, so you can figure Bell is going to hit 20+ home runs, knock in around 80 or so, and have an OPS around 800. Zunino will hit the long ball more often than the Guardians’ catchers last season, but he will strike out. A lot.

We would all like to be optimistic about the young players who had marvelous seasons in 2022, but the truth is, we don’t know what Steven Kwan, Oscar Gonzalez, and even Andres Gimenez is going to do in 2023 for sure.

That doesn’t mean they will not be productive in 2023, but it’s difficult to count on each player to meet or exceed what they did in 2022.

Because we are a big believer that future success is based on knowledge of the strike zone, obviously we think Kwan has the best chance for improvement. We think he learned as the season progressed to pick his spots in driving the ball, so we think his slugging percentage will improve and he could approach or surpass 10 homers. Still, that’s not his game, so it needs to occur naturally.

Gonzalez is the opposite of Kwan, not walking much, but as we have suggested before, maybe Gonzalez is the Cleveland version of White Sox’ Tim Anderson, a hitter who succeeds with a poor strikeout to walk ratio. Still, he’s a player to watch.

Gimenez was spectacular last season, starting the All-Star Game and winning a Gold Glove, but it was also his first season with more that 210 plate appearances. His strikeout to walk ratio isn’t good (112:34) and his on base percentage (.371) was high because he was hit by a league high 25 pitches.

As proof it can happen, look at Myles Straw. In his first full year in the big leagues, 2021, Straw hit .271 with a .349 on base percentage. Last year, his second season, he hit .221 with a .291 OPS.

We aren’t saying everyone will regress, and quite frankly, we think Straw will rebound and be much better next year.

We are saying it is hard to judge players without a firm track record. For the most part, the pitching staff has that. It’s the offense that is more of a concern.

Guardians Going Free Agent Route Is A Bit Of A Surprise.

The Cleveland Guardians had two big needs heading into the post-season, another power bat and a catcher since Austin Hedges was a free agent.

It is a surprise that Chris Antonetti and Mike Chernoff filled both via free agency though, signing catcher Mike Zunino to catch, joining Josh Bell who came to the Guardians a week earlier.

Remember, Cleveland values defense and handling pitchers first and foremost from their backstops, and Zunino certainly is very good defensively. With a bat in his hand, think Hedges with a lot more power potential.

When Hedges first arrived in the big leagues with San Diego, he had some pop, hitting 18 homers in his first full year with the Padres, and then 14 in 91 games the following season. In the four years since, Hedges’ high in roundtrippers was 11 in 2019, and his best batting average was .178 with Cleveland in 2021.

Zunino does two things more frequently than the man he replaces: Hit dingers and strikeout. He missed much of last season after shoulder surgery, but since 2017, he belted more than 20 homers three times, including a career-high 33 in 2021. His lifetime slugging percentage is 79 points higher than Hedges.

However, his strikeout to walk ratio per 162 games is 196:39. As a comparison Hedges, who is one of the game’s worst hitters, has a ratio of 148:33. That’s how often Zunino fails to make contact.

We would not be surprised if prized catching prospect Bo Naylor (Guardians’ #3 prospect according to Baseball America) opened the season at AAA and another free agent signee, Meibrys Viloria, starts the year on the Opening Day roster as a left-handed hitting option behind the plate.

Not that Viloria is much of a hitter, he has a career OPS of 553, with a .201 batting average and three homers.

That the Guardians filled their biggest need via free agency means they haven’t addressed the glut of middle infield prospects. Yes, they did move Owen Miller to Milwaukee for a player to be named later or cash to clear a roster spot for Zunino, but they still have Gabriel Arias and Tyler Freeman, who both played in Cleveland for a bit, with Brayan Rocchio (#5 prospect) knocking on the door.

Not to mention what to do with the back end of the starting rotation. We believe Aaron Civale will be the fourth starter behind Shane Bieber, Triston McKenzie, and Cal Quantrill, but we wouldn’t be shocked if Zach Plesac is moved to make room for say, a Cody Morris.

If a move is made to thin out the prospect glut, what do the Guardians get in return? Younger prospects to guarantee a promising future, or do they someone on the big-league roster and try to upgrade the spot they are dealing from?

So, as a result of the Bell and Zunino additions, not only does Cleveland have a stronger major league roster, but they still have one of the five best farm systems in the sport.

That gives the front office a lot of options as spring training approaches. That’s an awful good position to be in.