Tribe’s Slump Is Normal (Not That It Makes It Better For Fans)

When the Cleveland Indians completed the first half of their 2016 schedule, they had just ended a club record 14 game winning streak, and were on pace for 98 wins for the season, sitting at 49-32.

In the next 27 games, 1/6th of the season if you will, they didn’t continue the torrid pace they were on leading up to the halfway point, but they weren’t exactly awful either.  Here is how they have handling each 27 game stretch thus far:

First 27 games:  14-13, 5 games out of 1st place
Games 28-54:  16-11, total record 30-24, led AL Central by 1/2 game
Games 55-81:  19-8, total record 49-32, led AL Central by 5-1/2 games
Games 82-108:  13-14, total record 62-46, lead AL Central by 2 games

So, as ghastly as the last week has been, with the team’s strength, the starting rotation getting cuffed around by the Twins and Yankees, the last sixth of the season hasn’t been much different than the beginning of the campaign.

And in reality, most teams, even teams that reach the playoffs don’t play .700 baseball all season long.  If the Tribe played the entire season like they did from game 55-81, they would have ended the season with a record of 114-48.

Cleveland’s starters had an ERA of under 3.00 during the month of June, a month in which Terry Francona’s squad went 22-6 and didn’t lose a home game.  Although we predicted a division title before the season started, even we didn’t think that the Indians are as good as they played in that stretch.

The pitching as a whole did drop off, falling off the top spot in ERA to ranking 3rd in the AL currently, but much of that was due to the past week, when opponents were scoring 10 or more runs per night on a regular basis.

Danny Salazar’s absence will be felt, but if Cleveland is to maintain its grip on first place, they will need Trevor Bauer to pitch like he did before July 1st.  He has struggled since pitching five innings in relief on July 1st, the 19 inning win over Toronto.

They will also need Mike Clevinger, or someone else from the Columbus roster to provide some solid outings.  Clevinger has proved he can dominate at AAA, but his starts in the bigs have been tainted by an inability to command the strike zone.  Perhaps getting comfortable up in the majors will help this.

The addition of Andrew Miller gives Francona the ability to put games away if the Tribe leads after six. For all the criticism around him (we have done it too), Bryan Shaw is a solid arm, and Cody Allen is too, although he would be better if he threw more strikes.

The offense continues to surprise, ranking 2nd in the league in runs scored.

Mike Napoli continues to bash the baseball, closing in on a career high in HRs, and Jason Kipnis has always topped his career best in that category.

And Francona has done a great job getting the most out of Rajai Davis and Lonnie Chisenhall, new acquisition Brandon Guyer has contributed already.

Tyler Naquin has shocked everyone (except Peter Gammons) by blossoming into a Rookie of the Year candidate, but with Davis, Guyer, and now Abraham Almonte performing well at the dish, it’s hard to argue with the skipper’s handling of his playing time.

Does the Tribe need to go on a nice winning stretch again?  Of course, but the last 27 games haven’t been as bad as people have made them out to be.

If Detroit can stay this hot, then tip your cap to them. Our guess is they will have a slump just like Cleveland, and the lead in the Central will grow once again.

MW

Tribe Can’t Mortgage Future Either

It is funny to listen to fans of the Cleveland Indians these days.

Granted, 68 years of waiting for another World Series title will make you irrational and downright crazy, especially when the franchise is poised to make such a run this season.

This is particularly true in terms of the July 31st trading deadline.  There are many people willing to give up prospects, and a lot of them, to get a piece guaranteeing a spot in the Fall Classic.

But baseball doesn’t work that way.  In fact, there is no move out there that will cement the American League pennant this season.  That’s the nature of the game.

The farm system is deep enough to move one or two prospects for players who can help this season, without a doubt.

Remember, though, there were people who wanted the Indians to trade Francisco Lindor in 2013 to make a run at the post-season.  The front office (and us, patting ourselves on the back) saw his special talent and realized he shouldn’t be moved.

We see the same short-sighted thinking in terms of the major league roster, particularly when it comes to Mike Napoli and Rajai Davis.

Since both players have contributed greatly to the success of this year’s edition of the Tribe, we are already hearing media and fans alike talking about extensions for both players.  Usually around a three year deal.

This would be a horrific mistake.

Napoli has made himself a big part of the Tribe clubhouse, and is having his best season since 2013.  And that’s terrific, but he’s also 34 years old and will turn 35 on Halloween.

A three year deal, which would probably cost the Indians over $10 million per season, would have the first baseman/DH in Cleveland through his age 37 season.

If he has his 2014 season (.248, 17 HR, 55 RBI, 789 OPS), do you want to pay $10-12 million for that?  Neither does the Cleveland front office.

The same applies to Davis, who will turn 36 years old sometime during the post-season (October 19th).  Davis has probably played more than the brass thought when they signed him last winter, but he has also helped in a big way.

He has already achieved a career high in home runs (9) and should also reach a career high in walks (he has 23 now, his high is 29).

If either player were willing to sign another one year deal, with a club option for a second season, we would do that, but after the solid 2016 seasons they’ve had, our guess is someone will give them a better contract than that.

Remember, the Tribe’s core is Michael Brantley, Jason Kipnis, and Lindor, with players like Clint Frazier, Bradley Zimmer, Yandy Diaz, etc. on the way.

The Indians could be set for another long run at the top of the AL Central Division, just like the one in the 1990’s.  It doesn’t make sense to be hampered by some bad contracts.

The smart move for Chris Antonetti and Mike Chernoff is to find a couple of other players in similar situations to Napoli and Davis this off-season, and give them one year deals.  It’s simply a less risky proposition for the front office.

If the powers that be on the corner of Carnegie and Ontario play their cards right, they will be a contender perhaps through the end of the decade.

Fans can’t think about that, but the management has to.

MW

Tribe Offense Has Been Big Surprise Due To Long Ball

Without a doubt, the biggest surprise for the Cleveland Indians this season has been the offense.

Everyone expected the pitching staff to excel, based on the Tribe having the best rotation in the American League, and perhaps the best in all of baseball.  The bullpen could use some help, but for the most part, Bryan Shaw and Cody Allen have done a solid job in the back of the ‘pen.

They haven’t disappointed either, as the staff has the lowest ERA in the AL.

There were many who expected the offense to struggle, and had those who thought this known that Michael Brantley was going to play in just 11 of Cleveland’s first 94 games, it would’ve have been felt it was too much for the pitching staff to overcome.

The reason for the surprise is simply this–the Tribe has found the long ball.

Last season, the Indians finished 13th in the American League in home runs, led by Carlos Santana with 19.

Only four other Indians hit more than 10 dingers:  Brantley and Brandon Moss (traded in July) hit 15, and Yan Gomes and Francisco Lindor hit a dozen each.

That’s it.

Turn the calendar to 2016, and things are drastically different.

The Indians are 5th in the junior circuit in home runs and the power is dispersed throughout the lineup.

You have Mike Napoli leading the way with 22 bombs, waging a seemingly day to day battle with Carlos Santana for the club lead.  The latter has already topped his ’15 total by belting 21 homers this season.

Jason Kipnis is closing in on his career high of 17 home runs, and his next one will tie that mark.  And Lindor and rookie surprise Tyler Naquin have each hit 12 circuit clouts.

Rajai Davis is poised to join the double figure club sitting at nine, and Juan Uribe and Lonnie Chisenhall should also hit more than 10 before the year is out.

Last season, the champion Royals based their offense on an up and down the lineup attack which featured six players with OPS of over 800 in their lineup.

The 2015 Indians had just three in Kipnis, Brantley, and Lindor, who didn’t join the team until the middle of June.  Against left-handed pitchers, Ryan Raburn was added to the lineup.

That’s why the offense sputtered.  There were too many inconsistencies in the hitting on a night to night basis.

This year, it’s the Indians who have the ability to keep pressure on the opponent’s pitchers throughout the lineup.  Napoli, Kipnis, Lindor, Naquin, Chisenhall, and Santana all exceed 800 OPS.

That’s a solid lineup that Terry Francona puts out there every day.

We also shouldn’t lose the fact that runs scored are up around baseball this year, and it does make teams with good pitching stand out.  When run scoring is down in the sport, everyone has good pitching numbers.

It gives the Tribe a bigger advantage against the teams they are competing with in the American League and throughout baseball.

Still, it wouldn’t hurt to add another bat before next Sunday.  There is nothing wrong with making a strong unit even stronger.

The Indians need bullpen help, so they are looking to make their pitching better, so why not make the hitting better as well.

With a seven game lead in the division, the goal isn’t making the playoffs, it should be giving the Tribe the best chance it can have to win the World Series.

That’s a realistic goal.  Right now!

MW

 

Why Tribe Can’t Stand Pat

The second half of the baseball season starts tomorrow night, and the Cleveland Indians are in good position to make the playoffs.

They have a 6-1/2 game lead in the American League Central Division and after they return from the trip they start tomorrow, they will play 39 of their last 65 contests at Progressive Field.

So, the question is does the Tribe need to make a move before the July 31st trading deadline?  After all, they lead the AL in ERA and rank third in the league in runs scored per game.

Don’t they have enough on the current roster to win the division?  Isn’t Michael Brantley getting ready to come back, giving the team an added bat?

The reason is simply this…president Chris Antonetti, GM Mike Chernoff, and skipper Terry Francona cannot assume that everything that went well in the first half is going to continue after the All Star break.

Jose Ramirez has been arguably the team’s most valuable player in the first half, filling in for Brantley and hitting .295 with a 769 OPS.  His prior career high in these categories is .262 with a 646 OPS.

Now, Ramirez is just 23 years old and is improving day by day as he should be, but what if he wears down because this is the most he’s played at the big league level?

Tyler Naquin was a solid hitter in the minors, but what he has done at the big league level is eye popping.  He has a 965 OPS and 21 extra base hits in 159 at bats.  Even the most ardent supporter of the rookie can’t think that’s going to continue.

Lonnie Chisenhall is 27 years old now and should be entering the prime of his career.  He entered the break hitting .299 with a 819 OPS, both highs for his time in the bigs.

He has had hot streaks like this before, though.  In 2014, Chisenhall was hitting .332 with 9 HR and 41 RBI in the first half of the year.  After that, he hit .218 with an OPS of 591.

You have to have an alternative if this happens again.  We aren’t saying it will, but you have to be ready.

Rajai Davis (35 years old) and Mike Napoli (34) have been huge for the Indians in the first half, but Francona has leaned on them a lot, probably more than he planned going into the season, but Brantley’s injury and the suspensions of Abraham Almonte and Marlon Byrd changed those plans.

The front office has to be prepared for a possible fall off in production from that duo.

And while Brantley should be back by at latest the beginning of August, there is no telling if he will hit like the guy who finished 3rd in the MVP voting in 2014.  There may be a period of adjustment or he may wind up being 75%.  Still a solid player, but not producing like normal.

Look, we aren’t saying all of these players will decline in the second half, but a good front office has to anticipate that things will go wrong.  Getting another bat will allow Francona to give some players a rest and that player could be plugged in if someone regresses after the break.

And it never hurts to upgrade your bullpen, but that has been addressed before.

Yes, the Indians have good chemistry and have a very good team.  However, you can still make it better.

The Tribe needs to do everything it can to win the division and avoid the dreaded, one game wild card playoff.

That’s why you make a move.  It may just put you in the World Series.

MW

Youth Is Served: Lindor, Ramirez Are Pacing Tribe Attack

The Cleveland Indians completed the first third of its schedule last night with a 7-1 victory over the Kansas City Royals.

It gave the Tribe their 30th win of the season, putting them on a pace to win 90 games this season.  We would say that would give them a pretty good shot at their first playoff appearance since 2013.

Terry Francona’s club does have the third best ERA in the American League, which is kind of expected because this squad is built around their pitching staff, particularly the starting rotation.

The surprise is the Indians rank 4th in the AL in runs scored per game, and they have done it without Michael Brantley, who has played just 11 games this season.

Despite the veteran acquisitions over the winter, signing Mike Napoli, Rajai Davis, and Juan Uribe, the offense is being led by two kids, 22-year-old Francisco Lindor, and 23-year-old Jose Ramirez.

This is not to minimize Napoli’s presence in the middle of the order.  He is on pace to belt 30 home runs and knock in over 100, something the Tribe has lack since the days of Travis Hafner and Victor Martinez.

And by the way, Napoli has more RBIs right now than the man everyone wanted the Indians to trade for in the off-season, the White Sox’ Todd Frazier.

But we digress.

It was expected that Lindor would be a key to the 2016 Indians, but most people figured he would have a slight decline offensively, since his big league numbers far exceeded his hitting stats in the minors.

We have been preaching about how special the shortstop is since his minor league days, and it appears he is one of those athletes who gets better when the lights are brighter.

The switch-hitter is batting .308 (804 OPS) with 5 HRs and 26 RBI and it seems he provides a sparkling defensive play each and every night.  And his enthusiasm for the game is contagious.

Even at 22, he is an unquestioned leader on this ballclub.

He has now played 152 games at the big league level and has a .311 batting average, with 17 HR and 77 RBI (824 OPS).

And he should get even better.

The folks in the front office at Carnegie and Ontario should be thinking of tying his guy up for a long, long time, because his price tag goes up each and every day.

Ramirez is the bigger surprise, since he figured to be a utility player once the regular season started.  The injury to Brantley put him in an everyday role, and he has flourished.

Also, a switch-hitter, JRam struggled last year playing shortstop, which is not his natural position.  He was hitting under .200 and not making the routine plays defensively.

This year, he has made the step up, playing everyday at either LF or 3B, he’s hitting .317 with an 846 OPS, and is among the top ten in the AL in on base percentage at .387.

And at 23, you have to figure he will get better as well.

This isn’t to minimize others contributions to the Indians’ early success.  Josh Tomlin is 8-1, Danny Salazar has become one of the AL’s best starters, we have talked about Napoli, and Jason Kipnis has played, like, well, Jason Kipnis.

The catalysts, at least offensively, have been Lindor and Ramirez.

And with guys like Bradley Zimmer, Clint Frazier (hitting over .300 in the pitching rich Eastern League), Giovanny Urshela, Mike Clevinger, etc., the Cleveland Indians are poised to make some noise in the American League.

That includes this season.

MW

Tribe Positives and Concerns Over First 27 Games.

The Cleveland Indians hit the 1/6th mark of the season with a 14-13 record.  They didn’t have the great April they needed to get casual fans revved up about them, but they didn’t bury themselves either.

And that can be done during the season’s first month, just ask the Minnesota Twins.

The biggest problem for the Tribe is the Chicago White Sox, who have ridden excellent pitching to take a five game lead in the AL Central.

Of course, they is a long way to go to make up that deficit.

Anyway, here is what we see as positives over the first 27 games, and also, things were are concerned about.

POSITIVES

Nobody doubts the talent of Francisco Lindor, but right now, there doesn’t seem to be any sign of a sophomore slump.

The 22-year-old is hitting .324 (814 OPS) thus far and is making a defensive gem on a nightly basis.

If you had Josh Tomlin as the staff leader in wins before the season started, you were in the minority.  But the right hander sits at 5-0 with a 3.72 ERA and is showing remarkable control as usual with a 19 to 2 strikeout to walk ratio.

It seems like over the last few seasons, one starting pitcher makes a step toward elite status, and this year it is Danny Salazar following in the footsteps of Corey Kluber (2014) and Carlos Carrasco (2015).

Salazar has allowed just 18 hits in 37-2/3 innings, while striking out 43 batters.  Yes, his walks are high (16), but for the most part, he has been dominating each time he takes the mound.

The Indians have been searching for a right handed power bat for years and years, and they may now have one in Mike Napoli.  Yes, he strikes out a lot, on pace for close to 200 whiffs on a 500 at bat season, but he also has six homers and 20 RBI.

His history says the strikeouts will taper a bit, and he does see a lot of pitches, but he has a chance to belt more than 25 bombs this season.

CONCERNS

The bullpen still scares us and we know that Bryan Shaw has pitched better lately.  Terry Francona likes to use Zack McAllister in the 7th, Shaw in the 8th, and Cody Allen in the 9th if the starting pitcher can only give him six innings.

You can probably count the game where each has provided a clean inning in the same game on one hand.

McAllister started great, but has struggled his last few outings.  Shaw was a mess early on, and Allen still seems to go through periods where he can’t throw strikes.

Maybe Tommy Hunter can provide a lift here.

Yan Gomes is also having a hard time at the plate, hitting just .176 (541 OPS).  Gomes has walked just four times, compared to 22 punch outs.

He never has walked a lot, and you have to wonder if many the word is out that you don’t have to throw him a strike to get him out.

He also needs to start taking the outside pitch to right centerfield.

Jason Kipnis’ diminishing contact is also troubling.  He has almost struck out as much as Napoli.  His career high was 143 in ’13, but right now, he is on pace to fan over 160 times.

Our last concern is the usual veteran problem.  How long of a rope does Francona give some of these guys.

Juan Uribe has an OPS of 652.  Rajai Davis’ is 690, and Lonnie Chisenhall’s is 626.  Under 700 isn’t very good.  The team already sent out Tyler Naquin who had a 753 OPS (.315 batting average) to the minors.

When you are a contending team, which the Indians are, you can’t wait too long to replace players who aren’t producing.

Francona needs to use Jose Ramirez more, because he has been productive (783 OPS), and he needs to leave Carlos Santana in the leadoff spot. We know it is a small sample size, but Cleveland is 8-1 when Santana leads off.

He walks a lot, and has already led off two games with home runs.

Overall, the offense has made a big improvement, ranking 4th in the AL in runs scored per game, and the pitching is starting to pick it up, ranking 7th in ERA.

Again, our biggest concern is the bullpen.  With some improvement over the first 27 games in that department, the Indians could have been 17-10 instead of 14-13.

MW

Tribe Banking On A Lot Going Right on Offense

The supporters of the front office of the Cleveland Indians, those who think they never do anything wrong, will take the signing of Juan Uribe and hammer critics of the move by saying people complain when they don’t spend money, and then when they do, the “haters” are still not happy.

As we have said all winter, in a vacuum, each one of the Tribe’s off-season signings are good.

There is little risk in any of the one-year contracts GM Mike Chernoff and president Chris Antonetti gave to Mike Napoli, Rajai Davis, and Uribe.

All of them could be solid contributors to the 2016 Indians, and if they have good seasons, then Terry Francona’s bunch will be contenders for a division championship.

The downside is what if they don’t, and with Francona being a player’s manager, how long of a rope do each of the trio have?

What if any one of the three have a completely horrible spring training, and one of the younger players who play their spot, have tremendous springs.

We know the answer is that Tito is going to give the more experienced player the benefit of the doubt.

That may be fine, but this is a team, that for many reasons, can’t afford to get off to a bad start.  If the slumps last past April and into May, can management continue to give playing time to aging players.

Assuming Francona starts the season with 12 pitchers, that leaves two open spots on the Opening Day roster.

We project the starting lineup against the Red Sox, and likely David Price, this way:

Kipnis        2B
Lindor        SS
Napoli        1B
Santana      DH
Gomes        C
Uribe          3B
RH hitter   RF
Almonte    CF
Davis          LF

Lonnie Chisenhall will be the everyday guy in RF, but we doubt Francona will start him vs. Price.  The candidates for this spot, and a utility role are Joey Butler, Collin Cowgill, Shane Robinson, and Robbie Grossman, although he is a better hitter vs. right handers.

The other two bench spots will be Jose Ramirez and Roberto Perez.

Yes, this roster can be very, very good if everything falls into place, but how often does that happen, and why does the front office bank on that having to occur pretty much every season.

Perhaps in a few years, when Bradley Zimmer and Clint Frazier hit the big leagues, and hopefully are successful in the majors, the hitting attack will not have to depend on keeping your fingers crossed.

We look at the current lineup and a lot has to go right for this team.

Napoli has to keep doing whatever he did in the second half last season.  Hopefully, Uribe will continue to be productive at 37 years old.

Will Davis hit well at Progressive Field? Can Carlos Santana reverse a two year trend in his career that is going in the wrong direction?

That’s four questions out of nine spots, and we didn’t even mention Almonte, who had a solid two months in a Tribe uniform, that’s all.

Nor did we mention Michael Brantley’s shoulder surgery.

Look, we hope it all works out for the 2016 Cleveland Indians, but why can’t this organization try to eliminate some question marks going into the season?

Why do they have to continue with the “wishin’ and hopin'” mentality?

If have of the questions aren’t answered in their favor, this team is in peril of watching another season of outstanding pitching wasted.

That would be a shame, and it won’t help the feeling the fans of Cleveland have regarding the current regime.

MW

 

This Year’s Tribe Trial? Old Vets On 1 Year Deals

It seems that every off-season, the Cleveland Indians’ front office looks at their club and decides to conduct a science experiment.

The science involved is sabermetrics, and they seem to be always trying a different “theory” in terms of making the team successful for the upcoming season.

While they have put together three straight winning seasons (last year is kind of up for debate because they played only 161 games and finished one over .500), their victory total has declined since Terry Francona took the Indians to 92 wins in 2013 and a berth in the wild card game.

Over the years, GM Chris Antonetti took a look throughout baseball and saw the majority of pitchers were right-handed, and decided to make his team left-handed hitting dominant.

While the Indians were successful vs. righties, the problem became situational southpaws came out of the opponent’s bullpens and other teams decided to adjust rotations to throw lefties against Cleveland, with great success.

After the Tribe was burned by the signings of Nick Swisher and Michael Bourn, two players in their early 30’s when inked, the Indians’ front office seems to be staying away from the long term deals to free agents.

Actually, this theory has merit.  Don’t you think the Angels would love to get out of the Albert Pujols deal right now?  And we know Boston would love for some team to take Hanley Ramirez and/or Pablo Sandoval off of their hands.

If you sign a player over 30 to a long term deal, you are paying top dollar for a player’s declining years.  After a year or two of doing that, teams get tired of it.

The best free agents to sign are guys who hit that position in their mid-to-late 20’s, let’s say from age 27-29.  That way you still get some prime years at big cash.

The problem is the players and agents are now looking for agreements which last six or seven years.  This means it is inevitable that you will be paying big money to a player when he is no longer producing at an optimum level.

We totally understand why the Indians, and their payroll constraints, either self imposed or market imposed, stay away from the free agent process.

This year’s plan du jour is to improve the offense, which was a major trouble spot in 2015, with a series of veteran free agents, giving them non-threatening one year contracts.

1B Mike Napoli will play all of the 2016 season at 34 years old.  The problem with him is his OPS has declined each of the last three seasons (842, 789, 734).  Cleveland hopes his second half resurgence with Texas is the player they will get this season.

Rajai Davis is 35 years old, and although his OPS rose since he started playing in Detroit, he is a platoon player with an OPS vs. lefties at 798, but only a 654 figure against right-handers.

And there are rumors the Indians are talking seriously to another veteran, 3B Juan Uribe, who will turn 37 in March.  Uribe is a good clubhouse influence and was well respected with the Dodgers and Mets last season.

He is starting to slow down a bit, with his OPS dropping 40 points last season.

If signed, his presence will allow the Tribe to start Giovanny Urshela at AAA to begin the season.

Signing these guys is a gamble, because if they don’t produce because age is catching up to them, then the Indians are in the same boat they were in last season.  Actually, a little worse because Michael Brantley will likely miss the first two months of the season.

The Indians could have just went out and acquired a solid middle of the order bat, and they still might, although it isn’t likely.

They chose this latest experiment.

That can’t make the fan base all warm and fuzzy.

KM

 

If Tribe Is Done, They Didn’t Do Enough.

Earlier this week, Indians’ president Chris Antonetti announced the signing of free agent 1B/DH Mike Napoli to a one year contract, and then said the Tribe is pretty much done when it comes to adding talent this off-season.

Let’s hope he is being coy.

Because if the front office is finished with the roster for the 2016 season, they haven’t done enough to improve the offense.

Getting Napoli and Rajai Davis are okay moves, and in a vacuum, you can’t complain about either player, especially because they were both brought in on one year deals.

Cleveland was 11th in the American League in runs scored last season, and will be missing their best hitter, Michael Brantley, for at least the first six weeks of the season.

Yes, we know that Francisco Lindor will be with the team all season, and Yan Gomes, a Silver Slugger winner in 2014, will hopefully be healthy for the entire season.

That will help the offense without a doubt.

Still, the Tribe didn’t get the impact bat, they so desperately need.  They have a lot of players who will be put in the middle of the order in Cleveland, but for good offensive teams, they would hit somewhere between 6th and 9th.

That can work, but it requires every hitter in the lineup to have a solid season.  There can’t be more than one spot where you aren’t getting offense.

We feel they will be better offensively in 2016, but not enough to put the Indians in the 90+ win conversation they need to win the division and avoid the one and done wild card game.

There is no question they have the pitching to contend and stay in the race.  They finished 2nd in the AL in ERA, and their top four rotation hurlers might be without peer in the league.

But without better hitting, the Indians are going to lose too many games, 2-1 and 3-2.  Games where they get excellent starting pitching and waste it.

Why not do something about it?

In a sport without a salary cap, it is funny to hear discussions about the Indians and talk about a $90 million payroll ceiling.  Let us remind you that it is a self imposed figure.

There is nothing to prevent the Dolans from spending more than that figure except their own economical restraints.

Right now, the market is flush with free agent outfielders, and Terry Francona would have to start Davis, Abraham Almonte, and Lonnie Chisenhall out there if the season started today.

The Indians may have played the market correctly, and may be able to get a quality outfielder at a lower year commitment, something that is preferable for a smaller market team.

There was talk yesterday that Justin Upton may take a one year deal with Texas.  And you know there is nothing bad about a one year contract.

So, the price tag for guys like Yoenis Cespedes and Gerardo Parra may not be as high as originally thought, and the trade value of players like Marcell Ozuna and Carlos Gonzalez may also be coming down.

We hope the Indians can take advantage of this and go out and get another solid bat to help length the lineup.

We hope that Antonetti was just being coy with the media and his people are still working feverishly to upgrade the hitting.

The Cleveland Indians can’t waste another year of excellent pitching without making the playoffs.

That would be a shame.

MW

 

Tribe’s Signing OK, Still Need More

The Cleveland Indians finally entered the real hot stove league yesterday with the signings of free agents Mike Napoli and Rajai Davis to one year contracts.

First, there is no such thing as a bad one year deal, because even if the player is outright terrible, the Tribe will be out of it after the 2016 season.

We like the Napoli signing better, because he’s been more productive throughout his major league career (lifetime 837), and although he had a bad first half in 2015, he rebounded to post a 908 OPS after being dealt to Texas.

And he’s a solid defensive first baseman, much better than Carlos Santana.

Yes, he does strike out a lot, but he also has a career on base percentage of .355, meaning he also can take a walk.

We have problems with high strikeout, low walk players, such as Zack Walters.

Jim Thome and Travis Hafner fanned a lot, but they also draw tons of walks.

Davis is a good depth player, and can hit lefties, but he’s an aging speed guy whose increase in OPS over the past couple years seems to have come from playing half the time in spacious Comerica Park.

His road OPS in each of the last two seasons is below 700, meaning he wasn’t a good offensive player on the road.

And he is not a good on base percentage player either.

The Tribe will probably use him in a platoon role, and maybe he can help there, but our guess he will have to be used sparingly to be effective.

While both signings are fine on their own, the Indians still need a middle of the lineup presence to be a good offensive team.

Right now, the Tribe has a lot of guys who should be hitting in the #2 and #6-#9 spots in the order, but someone will have to hit leadoff and someone has to bat fourth.

Mike Hargrove said it well when he was the manager here.  If you have a leadoff man and a cleanup hitter, the rest of the batting order takes care of itself.

Right now, the Indians have neither, meaning Terry Francona will have to put someone ill fit for those spots in there.

Really, Jason Kipnis should be hitting either #2, #3, or #5 or #6, but he is forced to be used at the top of the order.

Only Michael Brantley hits where he is best suited among the top five batters.  He is the best hitter and bats third.

Guys like Carlos Santana and Napoli should hit sixth or seventh in a good batting order.

And putting them in a spot for which they aren’t suited makes them a failure in fans eyes.

That’s why you probably have to move a starting pitcher to get that kind of middle of the order bat.

Although we would prefer to not move Bradley Zimmer and Clint Frazier in one of these deals, we wouldn’t hesitate to use any other prospect for the right player.

For example, we like Mike Clevenger’s potential.  However, the reality is he has not thrown one pitch in a major league game.  He might be a very good starter someday, but then again, he might not be.

One thing we do know is the Indians have a very good starting rotation and some depth in that area.  So, you have to take advantage of that and sooner than later.

And just because other teams went for it last year and failed (San Diego, the White Sox), doesn’t mean the Tribe shouldn’t either.

The Royals won the World Series and signed Kendrys Morales in the winter and traded for Johnny Cueto and Ben Zobrist at the deadline.

It is doubtful they’d have won without those players.

Yesterday’s signings help the 2016 Indians, but the front office shouldn’t think this team is ready for Opening Day.

There is plenty of work to do.

MW