Guards Have Some Holes, But Generally Things Are Trending Well

Former Cleveland baseball broadcaster, the late Mike Hegan, used to say a baseball team wants to win three out of five games. If you do that, he said, you wind up with 96 wins and that gets you in the playoffs.

With 1/6th of the 2026 Major League Baseball season played, the Guardians aren’t too far off that pace, sitting at 15-12 and on pace to win 90 games this season. Considering they’ve played the defending champion Dodgers, a team that played in the ALCS a year ago in Seattle and are currently playing the American League champion Blue Jays, that’s not bad.

Last season, Steven Vogt’s crew had the worst offense in the AL and thus far, they have greatly improved, moving up to 10th. There is still a way to go, but it is a good sign that the hitting has improved.

Ranking last in the league in getting on base in 2025, they are 9th in the AL this year. And they are doing it with two of the best hitters on the team last season, Steven Kwan and Kyle Manzardo, getting off to terrible starts.

Rookie Chase DeLauter started out like a house afire, but even though he hasn’t homered since April 3rd, he puts up professional at bats each night. For a rookie to walk more than he has struck out (13 to 11) is quite impressive, and he is tied for the club lead in extra base hits with Jose Ramirez too.

We liked the potential of Angel Martinez because he was lethal against lefties last year and he is still a young player at 24 years old. This year, he’s hammering righties. Although we would like to see him improve his strikeout to walk ratio, he may have played himself into a guy who should be in the lineup more often than not.

And we wonder if Brayan Rocchio has Wally Pipp’d Gabriel Arias. Rocchio is second on the team in RBIs (although we don’t expect that to continue), but is getting on base at a .372 clip.

With DeLauter, Martinez, and Rocchio performing as they are, the lineup suddenly has a little more depth.

Pitching wise, the Guards rank 7th in the AL in ERA, not great, but not terrible. Gavin Williams continues to show signs of being the ace of the staff and is tied for the league lead in strikeouts but is third in walks. If he can get that aspect under control, Cleveland will have one of the best starters in the league.

Rookie Parker Messick has been a revelation too, sitting at 3-0 with a 1.76 ERA. But the other three starters have struggled in certain areas. Tanner Bibee is showing signs of getting back to his usual results, but still seems to have that one bad inning.

Joey Cantillo has great stuff, but control is an issue for him, with 12 walks in 25.1 innings, so it is tough for him to pitch deep into games. And Slade Cecconi has been a big disappointment thus far, with really only one good start on the year.

The bullpen has to perform better if the Guards are to be a contending team all year long. Right now, Cade Smith hasn’t been his dominant self. Free agent signee Shawn Armstrong has had difficulties finding the strike zone. Connor Brogdon seems prone to the long ball.

Overall, the relievers aren’t throwing strikes and are giving up too many homers. Hunter Gaddis has come off the IL and has given Vogt some stability, which is a good sign.

All in all, a good start for the Guardians and some good signs from a maturing team. Can these trends continue?

Guards’ Last Week In Our View

We are sure he wasn’t the first to say it, but former Indians’ broadcaster, the late Mike Hegan used to say if a team can win three out of every five games, they will be doing just fine. If a baseball team plays at this pace, they win 96 games and now, with the expanded playoffs, will be playing in October.

The Cleveland Guardians have done just that after 10 games, winning six of them. The odd thing and probably a bit troubling is four of the six victories have come in extra innings.

The good thing is they still count.

If not for the extra-inning games, the bullpen would be rested after the second run through the rotation as all five starters gave Terry Francona at least five innings, with Zach Plesac giving the Guards seven on Sunday. The shortest outing was Cal Quantrill’s five on Saturday night.

Hunter Gaddis really helped out in this regard with six one-hit innings in the west coast trip finale in Oakland on Wednesday. He will get a bigger (and better) test tonight against the Yankees.

Offensively, the Guardians continue to put pressure on opposing pitchers because they get men on base, leading the AL in walks in the young season.

The middle game vs. Seattle was frustrating because the Guards only scored two runs, but they had nine hits and six walks in that game, and more often than not, if you put 15 men on base, you will score more than two runs. They just couldn’t come up with the big hit.

Sometimes the big hit is a home run, and the Guardians ranked second last in the American League in long balls last season, and unfortunately, that hasn’t changed through ten games this year. Cleveland is tied with Detroit for the least homers with just five.

No doubt part of that is the Guards haven’t exactly played in balmy weather this far, whether it be in Seattle, Oakland, or Progressive Field. Cleveland is fourth in doubles and lead the league in triples but are still fourth from the bottom in slugging percentage.

Part of that is Josh Bell’s slow start (3 for 35). Bell was signed to give the Guardians some much needed power, but right now, it hasn’t shown up. On the plus side, Bell has drawn eight walks, so hopefully the home runs and extra base hits are on the horizon.

One troubling area thus far is the lack of blocking pitches by the new catching trio. Hopefully, it is just a matter of the newcomers not working with the pitchers until spring training, but the Guardians lead the Junior Circuit in wild pitches with 11.

Last year, Shane Bieber had five all season. He has three in two starts in 2023. Emmanuel Clase had four in 2022, he has two already in ’23. We mention both of those hurlers because the wild pitches cost them both a run in the past week.

Bieber’s success is dependent on getting ahead in the count and then throwing a wicked breaking pitch in the dirt. If the catchers can’t block that pitch, it’s a big issue. Hopefully, as Mike Zunino, Cam Gallagher, and Meibrys Viloria work with the staff more, this number will start to go down. And Zunino did do a much better job last night.

Cleveland pitchers aren’t wild. The leaders in walks allowed are both relief pitchers, with Clase and Enyel De Los Santos each issuing four.

When it starts costing the team runs, it gets magnified, and as we said two of the wild pitches came back to haunt the team this past week.

Tough Three Week Stretch For The Tribe.

No one can or should complain about a 5-3 start for the Cleveland Indians. As former major leaguer and broadcaster Mike Hegan used to say, if you win three out of every five, you end the season at 96 wins, and that gets you in the playoffs more often than not.

After losing last night, if the Tribe wins tonight, they will have accomplished that at least for the first ten games of the season.

But the next three weeks should give us an idea of how good the 2021 Cleveland Indians are.

Through May 2nd, the Tribe takes on a quartet of teams who are projected to be serious contenders to be playing baseball in October: The White Sox (8 more games), The Reds (3), the Yankees (4), and the Twins (3).

Chicago and Minnesota rank 3rd and 4th in the American League in runs scored per game (Cleveland is 7th) while the Reds led the NL in scoring. To be fair, they haven’t faced the Cleveland staff, which is tied for the league lead in ERA with the Twins.

While the Tigers’ offense ranks 14th in runs, perhaps because they have played six games vs. the Indians’ staff, let’s look at the Royals. KC has scored 37 runs in seven games, ranking sixth in the AL at 5.29 per game.

However, in the two games against the Indians’ pitching staff, they scored five runs in two games. So, when they aren’t facing Cleveland, they are averaging 6.4 runs per contest, which would be second in the Junior Circuit.

It will be interesting to see how the Pale Hose, Reds, and Twins fair against the Tribe staff, which hasn’t allowed more than five runs in a contest to date.

And while the Cleveland hitters knocked around the Detroit pitching staff, the series in the Windy City will see Indians’ hitters facing some accomplished hurlers like Lucas Giolito, Dallas Keuchel, and Lance Lynn, while they will also probably see the Reds’ Luis Castillo in the last game in the Queen City.

We have already noted the Twins’ pitching ranks tied for first with the Tribe in ERA, and the Yankees are currently third. Will the Tribe be able to score runs against real good pitchers, which honestly, the Indians have not faced yet.

And will the contact Cleveland hitters have been making, they have still struck out the least amount of times in the league, suit them well and can it continue against top flight pitching?

Look, we aren’t downgrading the Tribe’s success to date. We have always said when folks have complained about beating bad teams, would they rather they lose to them? Of course not, there is something to be said for beating teams you are supposed to have success against.

Unfortunately, the schedule makers have only allowed Cleveland 38 opportunities to play the Royals and Tigers, meaning there are 124 other contests on the slate.

There is an old baseball adage that says you split with the contenders and beat up on the poor teams on the schedule, so we aren’t looking for Terry Francona’s team to dominate over the next three weeks, although that would be nice.

They just need to hold their own against them. And as we said, we are anxious to see how the lineup cobbles together runs against the likes of pitchers like Giolito, who has pitched well vs. the Tribe in the past two seasons, and Lynn.

That might give us a truer picture of how the 2021 edition of the Indians will fare this season.