Guardians Need To Find An Alternate Leadoff Man

Former Cleveland skipper Mike Hargrove used to say if you have a leadoff hitter and a cleanup hitter, it was easy to make up your lineup.

With Steven Kwan at the top of the order, Steven Vogt had no problem in that regard, being able to pencil in Kwan at #1 and Josh Naylor in the #4 hole.

In his third year, Kwan was having his best year yet. He had a .373 on base average as a rookie, a season in which the Guardians won the American League Central Division.

After a step back last season (.340 OBP), Kwan was off to a tremendous start in 2024, getting on base at a .407 clip and currently leading the AL in batting average at .353. In addition, his slugging percentage was almost 100 points higher than his career high during his rookie year at .496.

Add in his suburb defense, and some in Cleveland might find this absurd, but Kwan was on track to be an MVP candidate.

Alas, Kwan suffered a hamstring injury a little over a week ago, and so far, Vogt hasn’t found a steady replacement.

You want someone who can get on base consistently (obviously) and unfortunately the next highest on base percentage among the regulars belongs to Josh Naylor, who has we said, is the Guardians’ fourth hitter in the lineup.

Here’s an out of the box thought. David Fry seems to be working his way into more playing time because every time he is in the lineup, he produces. In 87 plate appearances, Fry has 14 walks (to go with 21 strikeouts) and also has a .309 batting average and three home runs.

He’s getting on base at a .437 clip, and he’s also a threat to put you up 1-0 with a leadoff home run. As we said, it’s very unconventional, but the job of the leadoff man is not to steal bases, it’s to get on base.

Besides Fry and Naylor, the only other player on the roster with an OBP over .300 is Andres Gimenez at .307, and his average is that high only because he’s been hit with seven pitches, a total that is second in the AL.

Vogt tried Estevan Florial (34:7 strikeout to walk ratio) initially, and then tried Brayan Rocchio, who is tied for second on the team in walks (with Fry, behind J. Naylor), but neither really did well.

On Sunday, he used Tyler Freeman, who is just 4 for his last 35, but he is among the team leaders in getting on base via walk or hit batsman. He’s led off in the minors, but of course, it’s different at the big league level.

It is obvious that Kwan’s loss has created a huge hole. And not having Jose Ramirez swinging the bat well combined with no Kwan has really bogged down the hitting attack. It has become very home run dependent, something we never thought we would say about the Guardians.

They 5th in the AL in producing round trippers.

While finding a decent leadoff man would help, so would Gimenez and Ramirez starting to hit like they can and very soon.

Hopefully, this is just a slump, and the offense will start producing better very soon. That will be needed if the Guardians want to continue to sit at the top of the AL Central standings.

If Tito Retires, Who Should Be Next In Line?

Terry Francona is certainly leaving all the hints that this will be his last year as manager of the Cleveland Guardians. Of course, this has led to all kinds of speculation as to who would will be his successor.

First, no matter how frustrating Francona can be at times to fans, particular younger ones, he has been a tremendous leader. He has won a club record 906 games to date, winning 55% of the contests he has piloted.

Overall, he sits currently at 1935 victories, so he will not become the 13th skipper in big league history to get to that plateau. Every manager with more wins that Francona are in Cooperstown, except for Dusty Baker and Bruce Bochy, who are still active, and will be enshrined when they retire.

He has managed in three World Series, winning two in Boston and of course, losing in the 7th game with the Indians in 2016.

In the four years prior to his arrival, Cleveland won 68, 80, 69, and 65 games. Their lowest since? The 80 wins in 2021.

Francona has faults as a manager, all good managers do. We have always said he skirts a fine line between patience and stubbornness, and we are willing to admit that as much as much as we may want a particular player’s playing time reduced, usually Francona was right in staying with him.

That doesn’t mean we want a current coach to take over though. No matter how much DeMarlo Hale, Mike Sarbaugh, or Sandy Alomar Jr. (three people mentioned as successors) will carry on the foundation of what Francona has built in terms of culture, they aren’t Francona, and that will likely cause a conflict down the road.

We would like to keep Carl Willis, but he’s 63 years old and may not want to work with a new manager. But he’s a big reason for the organization’s “pitching factory” and if the new manager wants a chance to win, the knowledge of the young starters that Willis has will be crucial.

Let’s bring in someone new, perhaps even someone from outside the organization, but also a manager who can combine the analytics-based thinking with some “old school” thoughts as well.

For example, we don’t like the use of openers. We still believe the best way to win a baseball game is to have your starter go six or seven innings of effective work and turn it over to the bullpen.

Francona always said the problem with an opener is what happens if the pitcher you designate gives up three runs in the first. Then you are screwed.

But we don’t want someone who is a slave to the numbers. Someone once said that analytics often get used to justify a decision even if it doesn’t work. We agree with that thinking.

So, we would hire from outside the organization, and let the new manager pick his staff. Sometimes, having someone with a different “perspective” looking at the players is very much needed for an organization.

However, whoever the next skipper is, he won’t have the impact or the longevity of Terry Francona. Cleveland hasn’t had a revolving door in that position since Mike Hargrove was hired in 1991.

Hargrove was here 8-1/2 years, Eric Wedge seven, and Francona 11. Yes, Charlie Manuel and Manny Acta were mixed in, but the organization has been very stable. We would guess that’s something Chris Antonetti and Mike Chernoff will be looking for.

Loving Baseball’s Pitch Clock

There is no question the older people get, the more they complain about change. With spring training games being played, we have heard a lot of former MLB players and current veterans complaining about the pitch clock.

We love the game of baseball and its traditions. We also love the pitch clock.

Some of the recently retired players have waxed poetic about baseball not having a clock, the only major professional sport not measured by time. Hate to break it to these folks, but it’s still not.

Baseball is still measured by 27 outs. If it takes three and a half hours to get to that, then that’s how long the game will be. There is still no time limit like the 60 minutes of game time for football and hockey or the 48 minutes for basketball.

All the pitch clock is doing is preventing the ridiculous adjustment of batting gloves, jerseys, batting helmets. and other protective equipment by hitters, and the constant fidgeting on the mound by pitchers, taking extra time so can “recover” from the previous pitch.

When Mike Hargrove was dubbed the “Human Rain Delay”, he was an anomaly. Now, pretty much every hitter in the game was stepping out after every pitch redress themselves.

It was a ridiculous amount of non-action. Both the hitters and pitchers abused the system and the powers that run Major League Baseball, usually clueless in matters both on and off the field, made the correct decision here.

The sport is trying to get the casual fans back. The hardcore folks are going to be engaged no matter what happens. However, the inaction caused games to be averaging three hours long, and because the action came in spurts, the casuals found something else to do.

Professional sports are in the entertainment business.

As for the other rule changes? We still don’t like putting a runner on second base to start an inning in extra frames. With the pitch clock trimming time off the game, we don’t see a need to change the rules of the sport now. A compromise could have been playing under the regular rules of the game up until the 12th, and then using the “ghost runner”.

The bigger bases aren’t a big deal and likely won’t be noticeable, but limiting the number of pickoff throws a pitcher can make again changes the fabric of the baseball.

And we don’t like banning the shift either. We know that both basketball and football have tied the hands of the people playing defense, but we feel baseball is better than that. The reason for the shifts was hitters being taught to hit with “launch angles” to go over the defenders instead of exploiting that the opponents were leaving a vast part of the field wide open.

Banning the shift won’t stop the increasing number of strikeouts plaguing the game, but the success the Guardians had last year might. Cleveland’s contact approach paid off for them and if they have another great season in 2023, maybe other teams will adopt putting the ball in play.

Can’t understand why anyone would be against the tedious dead time during a game though. It doesn’t make any sense. Get on the rubber and pitch, get in the box and hit.

Pretty simple to us.

Tribe Still Has Leadoff Woes

Former Indians’ manager Mike Hargrove used to say if a team had a leadoff hitter and a cleanup hitter, everything else kind of fell into place in terms of making out the batting order.

This season, the #4 spot in the order has been one of the more productive spots for the Tribe, with an OPS of 746, ranking third for the season behind the #3 spot, occupied by Jose Ramirez, and the #5 spot, which has an OPS of 781, and has the most home runs (19) of any spot.

However, the leadoff spot continues to be troubling.

Since the job at that spot is to get on base, having a .287 on base percentage from that spot means more often than not, the game starts with one out. And only the #7 and #9 have a more difficult time reaching base safely.

Last season, Cesar Hernandez did a great job in the leadoff spot. He had a .355 OBP, pretty much in line with his career norm. However this season, that figure has dropped to .299. Ideally, a .350 figure equals being a good leadoff man. Right now, it’s a problem for an offense that struggles to score runs, ranking below average in the AL in that department.

The .299 figure is based on the entire season. After Hernandez was moved into the #1 hole by Terry Francona in May, his on base average is actually the same at .299

Granted, the switch-hitter has hit in tough luck for much of the season. He has hit an inordinate amount of line drives that have resulted in outs. So, maybe those liners will start dropping and the former Phillie will get on a hot streak.

He does have a 792 OPS vs. southpaws, but that is a result of hitting for more power right-handed. He has a .476 slugging percentage vs. LHP compared to just .337 vs. right-handers. His on base figure is comparable, .289 vs. RHP and .316 vs. lefties.

The real problem for Francona is there isn’t a viable alternative on the roster. Among players with more than 100 plate appearances, Ramirez gets on base the most at .347, but moving him to the leadoff spot creates a hole at #3.

By the way, that isn’t a reason to not hit him there. We would seriously consider it because it would also get him up to the plate more often.

Ranking behind Ramirez is the injured Jordan Luplow (.331), who actually did leadoff quite a bit before Hernandez was moved there. He still ranks third on the team in walks behind Hernandez and Ramirez. Following Luplow is Amed Rosario with a .331 OBP.

Bradley Zimmer has a .353 on base average, but that figure is skewed because he has been hit by six pitches to date. Without those, his figure drops to .288. If he could promise to keep getting hit, maybe he could bat first, but it doesn’t seem like that’s something that can be sustained.

At Columbus, Owen Miller has a .407 figure, but he struggled when given an opportunity with the big club. Both Gabriel Arias and Nolan Jones are over .350, but neither has spent a day in the majors and thrusting them into the leadoff spot puts a lot of pressure on a young player.

So, the alternatives are hoping Hernandez’ line drives start falling in or putting Ramirez in the top spot in the order, which might work when Franmil Reyes comes back. Francona could go–

Ramirez
A. Rosario
E. Rosario
Reyes
Bradley

Getting guys on base leading off an inning really helps an offense, it doesn’t take a genius to see that. It certainly would help the Cleveland offense.

Tribe Needs Some Help For Back Of Bullpen Trio

Terry Francona has been the manager of the Cleveland Indians since 2013, and the other night became just the third skipper in the history of the franchise to achieve 700 victories.

In the next several weeks, he will pass first Mike Hargrove (721) and then Lou Boudreau (728 and the last manager to pilot a World Series Champion for the Indians) to become the all-time winningest manager in franchise history.

At this point, we know how Francona likes to manage. He is famously patient with his players, particularly veterans with track records. Sometimes, this is frustrating for the fan base, but many times, his patience is rewarded.

We also know how he handles his bullpen. He has a caste system, trusting certain pitchers when he has a lead late in games, with most of the other arms being used when the Tribe is trailing. When Cleveland had their great run from 2016-18, if the team had a lead late, everyone (fans and opponents) knew they were going to see a combination of Bryan Shaw, Andrew Miller, and Cody Allen.

And because all of those guys were outstanding, the plan usually worked.

This year is no exception. Shaw is part of this triumvirate as well, this time joining Emmanuel Clase and James Karinchak to form an excellent back end of the ‘pen.

Shaw’s resurgence has been remarkable. He was released by Seattle last season after two bad years in Colorado, but has rebounded to pitch in 21 games, throwing 20 innings, allowing just six hits, and has a 1.35 ERA with 23 strikeouts and a save.

Clase, who missed last season on suspension, has been in 23 games, and has a 0.83 ERA and 8 saves. He’s given up some hits, but those are mostly groundballs that have found their way threw the infield. He was unhittable early in the year, but has been more human as of late.

And Karinchak has a 1.59 ERA and an unreal 42 whiffs in 22-2/3 innings and he has 6 saves in 24 appearances.

The biggest question as this season rolls on is can the heavy workload put on this trio allow them to hold their effectiveness throughout the season?

Coming into Saturday’s play Karinchak ranked tied for third in appearances with 24, trailing only Yasmeiro Petit of Oakland (26) and Jake Brentz of Kansas City (25). However, the A’s have played four more games than Cleveland. The Royals have played the same amount of games.

Moreso, Clase ranks tied for eighth in games pitched at 23. Of the top ten in the AL in appearances, Oakland, Kansas City, Houston, Los Angeles, and Detroit all have two members. There are 16 pitchers involved because of the tie for the eighth spot.

Behind Shaw in appearances for Cleveland, the next most is Cal Quantrill, who the Indians say they are stretching out in an effort to help out the starting rotation, which has suddenly sprung some leaks. Nick Wittgren has pitched in 16 games, followed by Phil Maton (15) and Trevor Stephan, who is kind of a “innings eater” in blowout losses with 14.

The hope is Francona can gain some confidence in some other relievers, perhaps Nick Sandlin or Kyle Nelson, or even Wittgren or Maton to ease the burden off the primary late inning trio.

We understand, with the Indians’ offense ranking near the bottom of the league in runs scored, when they have the lead, the skipper feels he has to win that game. Therefore, he uses his best guys. Unfortunately, if the team is winning, it results in a lot of use for the primary guys.

Unfortunately, the Indians have only won four games this season by five or more runs, and the last of those was May 8th. That’s a lot of close wins, and it also means no rest for Karinchak, Clase, and Shaw.

The Indians can’t afford for one of that trio to start fading due to overuse. That very well could be the key to the Tribe’s season.

Talking Tribe Lineup Change

Former Indians’ manager Mike Hargrove used to say that two things everybody thinks they can do better than you are cook a steak and manage a baseball team.

Those Tribe squads that Hargrove managed were so loaded offensively, it probably didn’t matter what order the skipper put them in, they were going to score a lot of runs.

This season’s edition of the Cleveland baseball team cannot make the same claim. They are 13th in the American League in runs scored, so lineup construction is very important, or at least it should be.

Terry Francona’s batting order is curious to say the least.

For example, the Tribe has one hitter with an on base percentage over .400 and one hitter with a slugging percentage over .500.

Logic would tell you it makes sense to have the man who gets on base batting before the player with extra base power, but that’s not how the Indians do it.

Francisco Lindor has a slugging percentage of .513 but he leads off on a daily basis. Carlos Santana gets on base 40.9% of the time (he also has a .488 slugging percentage) and he bats third right now, and hit 4th for much of the year.

Lindor also led off last season when he had the third best OBP on the team (behind Jose Ramirez and Michael Brantley).

We understand Francona wants to A). get Lindor as many at bats as possible and B). likes the shortstop to set a tone in each game, but he is the team’s best hitter, and the new age baseball people will tell you the best hitter should bat 2nd.

The manager has used Santana in the leadoff spot before, but for much of this season, the switch-hitter has been the only source of offense.

Jose Ramirez has been hitting in the #3 or #5 hole all season long, even though he has a 600 OPS. The struggling third baseman is second on the team in walks, so we thought perhaps a switch to the top of the order would have him concentrating more on getting on base, rather than driving the ball.

The Indians have informed us that Jason Kipnis has reached base in 17 straight games, going 17 for 67 (.259) with nine walks. This is a big improvement, but he’s hardly tearing the cover off the ball.

Again, Francona’s logic in hitting the second baseman there is that he’s comfortable. We understand the feelings of the players should be taken into consideration, but the Indians need to make the most of their run scoring opportunities.

What would we do? Here is the lineup we would put out there vs. a right-handed pitcher:

Ramirez 3B
Santana 1B
Lindor SS
Bauers DH
Luplow RF
Kipnis 2B
Perez C
Martin CF
Mercado LF

We know Francona has a problem with hitting all the switch-hitters together, but again, dire circumstances. The rest of the lineup features an alternating left and right.

If Mercado keeps performing, he can be moved higher in the order, but having him right before Ramirez, Santana, and Lindor should help the offense.

We hesitated with Bauers at the #4 spot because he has struggled as of late, but he has done well working the count, and can hit left-handed pitching.

Something has to change to get this out of the funk, and patience has to be thrown out of the window.

Mostly though, this change was designed to get Lindor at the plate with runners on base, instead of coming up at least once a game with no one on. And Santana gets on all the time, so it makes sense.

The Ramirez change is done hopefully to shock him back into being Jose Ramirez. Again, let him focus in getting on base, so maybe it stops him from chasing.

There have been too many games where the quantity of hits and walks isn’t producing runs. Mainly because there are guys not producing mixed in with those who are.

Maybe next week, we’ll tell you about a good way to cook a steak.