A Little Patience Needed For Tribe Hitters and Fans

First of all, it’s way too early.

The Cleveland Indians have played all of four games in the 2019 season, and depending on who is doing analysis, you can’t reach any conclusions about a baseball team until they’ve played at least 27 games (1/6th of a season) or 40 games (1/4th of the schedule).

Still, it’s not as though the Tribe allayed people’s fears after an opening series against the Twins in which they scored five runs, had three extra base hits, and struck out a total of 39 times, which for you math majors is 13 times per game.

You get 27 outs, so fanning 13 times in a game is almost half of the outs are coming without making contact.

To calm everybody down, the 1995 defending American League Champions, a team that featured Albert Belle, Carlos Baerga, Manny Ramirez, Jim Thome, and Kenny Lofton, also started the year scoring three runs in the first three games of the season.

They had one run and four hits in the opener, a single tally and nine hits the next game, and a run and six hits in game three. The difference? That team struck out 12 times. In the three games combined.

Right now, one of the issues is the lack of walks. The Indians had just 10 in the three game set vs. Minnesota. And if you are a frequent reader of this blog, you know we don’t like hitters who have high strikeout and low walk rates.

Imagine an entire team doing that. That’s as good of an answer as any as to why the Indians couldn’t score runs against the Twins.

Yesterday, at Progressive Field it was a different tale. Cleveland hitters struck out just six times and drew five free passes, including two in a four run eighth inning which gave the Tribe the victory.

The shame of the win was that Mike Clevinger didn’t get the victory. We know the new age baseball people have devalued the win, and we guess their point is made by Clevinger getting a no decision despite throwing seven innings of one hit baseball, striking out a career high 12 batters.

Some of the negative statistics simply cannot continue. Tyler Naquin is 1 for 10 with six whiffs, Brad Miller is 2 for 11 with five punch outs. And as a team, the Tribe has just six extra base hits, getting three yesterday, and only one of them is a home run.

As for walks, Leonys Martin has three, and Carlos Santana (Mr. Walk), Hanley Ramirez, and Greg Allen, who hasn’t played much, all have two.

We said before the season started the walk was going to be to have to be a big weapon for the Indians, and we are sure they will start coming more frequently.

The problem is the start of the season magnifies things, especially if it agrees with your preconceived notions. And we felt the Tribe’s offense was going to be a problem even with a healthy Francisco Lindor and Jason Kipnis.

In the meantime, let’s all take a deep breath and relax and let the season play out a bit. Almost all hitters go through these stretches as we showed with the 1996 Indians, who were as good a hitting team as there has been in the last 50 years.

More patience would be good for both the Tribe hitters and their fans.

Despite Criticism, Tribe Still Team To Beat In AL Central

We haven’t been fans of the off-season the Cleveland Indians had. We thought their plan was to reallocate the payroll, moving from higher paid older players to some younger players with upside.

Unfortunately, only the first half of that equation was true. Gone were Michael Brantley, Edwin Encarnacion, Yan Gomes, Andrew Miller, and Yonder Alonso. In their place appeared the return of Carlos Santana, and a bunch of players with pretty much unproven track records.

So, a team with World Series aspirations is depending on guys like Jordan Luplow, Jake Bauers, Tyler Naquin, and others to provide enough offensive production to get back to the post-season.

It says here that Terry Francona will use his managerial magic to manipulate the batting order to score enough runs, and the Tribe will win their 4th consecutive American League Central Division title.

Last year, the top five teams in the AL in runs scored made the post-season, and although that may not be the case this year, there is no question that although pitching is the story in the playoffs, you have to score runs to get to the post-season.

There is no question the strength of this squad is the starting pitching. With the emergence last season of Mike Clevinger, and the expected improvement in second year hurler Shane Bieber, Francona can put a starting pitcher out there pretty much every night that gives his team a chance to win.

We also believe the bullpen will be improved, probably because it can’t be much worse than a year ago. Brad Hand is the closer, and we think Jon Edwards will emerge as a solid set up man.

Dan Otero should be better than in 2018, and Tyler Olson was very good after returning from the disabled list a year ago.

Offensively, the Indians will have to be carried by their two MVP candidates, Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez, and the return of walk machine extraordinaire, Carlos Santana.

Hopefully, Lindor won’t miss too much time with the calf injury suffered prior to spring training, because opening the year with a keystone combo of Eric Stamets and Max Moroff doesn’t seem optimal.

So, early in the season, the Tribe may have to win their share of low scoring pitchers’ duels, and take advantage of the ability to draw walks that many who will start the season in the lineup will have.

The keys could be what Leonys Martin can contribute vs. right-handed pitching and is Greg Allen’s development in the second half of the year for real.

The switch-hitter batted .307 with a 783 OPS after the All Star Game, and right now, figures to be an everyday player for Tito.

Bauers and Luplow have very good minor league numbers at the AAA level, and the Indians need one of them to have those numbers translate to the big league level to have an acceptable offense.

And the last reason we feel the Tribe will win again is the state of the division. Cleveland won by 13 games a year ago, and really underachieved according to their run differential.

Their profile was that of a 98 win team, and they won 91. And although Minnesota has improved their offense (they were 6th in the AL in runs scored), they were still 9th in ERA, and the pitching still is questionable.

No doubt, it will be a tighter divisional race, particularly if Chris Antonetti and Mike Chernoff can’t pull off a move to improve the hitting during the season.

However, the Tribe should still have enough to get to the playoffs once again. And that would still be considered a successful season.

Why Dealing A Tribe Starter Is Smart

The 2019 baseball season will start in a week (yeah, we know Seattle and Oakland are playing in Japan), and the rumors about the Cleveland Indians trading one of their starting pitchers won’t go away.

It was reported earlier this week that San Diego is still talking to the Tribe front office about a starter, presumably either Corey Kluber or Trevor Bauer.

You can make plenty of reasons to justify trading either of (not both) the men who figure to be at the top of the Cleveland rotation in 2019.

Kluber is certainly the more accomplished of the duo, with two Cy Young Awards (the only Indians’ pitcher to win more than one) and two other top three finishes.

On the other hand, the right-hander will turn 33 in a couple of weeks. He has club options worth $17.5 million in 2020, and $18 million in 2021 in addition to the $17 million he is reported to make this season.

So, trading him saves the team more money this season as Bauer makes $13 million in ’19, and gets the franchise out of a $35 million commitment for the next two seasons.

For the talent scouts, they have to figure out whether Kluber is starting the decline phase of his career. His velocity dropped towards the end of last season, and his arm angle was noticeably lower than earlier in the campaign.

If the Tribe has seen the best of Kluber, it makes tremendous sense to move him now, despite the backlash from the media about trading another Cy Young Award winner.

The argument for trading Bauer is we know he is going to test free agency after the 2020 season, and if he pitches like he did in 2018, he is going to cost $20 million for ’20.

Now, dealing Kluber and shedding his salary for 2020 helps pay for Bauer to be sure.

And you can make a pretty good case that Bauer will be the better pitcher in the next two seasons. Heck, Bauer proclaimed this winter on social media that he had a better 2018 season than the guy who finished third in the Cy Young voting.

He may have been correct too.

However, moving Kluber means by the end of the 2020 season, you won’t have either Kluber or Bauer. The Tribe would still have Carlos Carrasco, Mike Clevinger, and Shane Bieber to head the rotation though, and other options (Triston McKenzie, Sam Hentges, Luis Oviedo) working their way up the system.

San Diego is a good choice to deal with too. They have an overload of outfielders and the deepest farm system in the major leagues. That gives the Indians an opportunity to add someone who can be put in the lineup everyday, and another player in the upper minors, where the Tribe is a little light.

Would a deal getting a Hunter Renfroe, a right-handed power bat, who is not arbitration eligible until next year, and won’t be a free agent until 2024, along with a top tier prospect and another lesser one, be worth the squeeze for the Tribe?

Let’s say the deal involves Kluber. Would a rotation of Bauer, Carrasco, Clevinger, Bieber, and say Adam Plutko, or heck, you could sign James Shields as a free agent, be good enough to win the AL Central?

Of course it could.

If you think with your head instead of your heart, it makes a lot of sense for the Indians to pull the trigger on this type of deal. If they feel they need a bat to score enough runs to get to the playoffs, it might be the best way to make that happen.

Bigger Market For Kluber Or Carrasco?

When baseball’s GM meetings took place a week ago, the rumors started that the Cleveland Indians were willing to move some of their veterans, excluding MVP candidates Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez.

Then came word the Tribe was talking to the Yankees about starting pitchers Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco in a big time trade.

That got us thinking…who would the fans rather see moved, and more importantly, who might bring the haul if they were moved.

Certainly, Kluber has had the more accomplished career. He’s a two time Cy Young Award winner, has finished in the top three in the voting four times, and is coming off his first 20 win season.

Carrasco has been one of the sports’ best starting pitchers since 2015, winning 60 games over the past four seasons, with an ERA under 4.00 each season. He has fanned 200 or more hitters in three of those seasons.

However, Kluber is older, he’ll be 33 on April 10th, and has more miles on his arm, having thrown 200 or more innings in each of the last five seasons. It also appears to many people that his arm slot became lower as the season went on in 2018. Kluber has the longer contract, which would give potential targets cost certainty for the next three seasons.

But the deal is for big dollars, he will earn $17 million in 2019, $17.5 million in 2020, and $18 million in 2021. Those last two years are at a team option.

Carrasco is signed for the 2019 season with a club option for 2020, at a deal that is far below what his performance has merited. He is making slightly over $7 million for ’19, and has a club option for $9.5 million for 2020.

Based on this information, Carrasco might bring back more in a trade than the Indians’ ace. The lure of getting a top notch starting pitcher at below market dollars could bring a huge return from other teams.

The market would seem to be contending teams for Kluber, while Carrasco could interest teams that are building for a playoff run in 2019.

Regardless, teams that would be a good match for the Indians would be organizations that have a very good farm system, particularly with major league ready talent.

A perusal of the top farm systems in the sport show several teams that would be interested in adding a top of the rotation starting pitcher. Those teams would be the Braves, Rays, Phillies, Yankees, A’s, and Dodgers. The Tribe wants to get younger on the field and would likely be looking for a young, controllable pitcher as well.

The Indians are able to consider such a move because of the depth of the starting rotation. Let’s say Carrasco is moved. The rotation would still be comprised of Kluber, Trevor Bauer, Mike Clevinger, and Shane Bieber.

The fifth spot would be between Adam Plutko and either a decent veteran signed in free agency, or somebody obtained in the deal for Carrasco.

Not many teams have that kind of rotation depth.

By the way, we like the minor trade the Tribe made yesterday getting OF Jordan Luplow from Pittsburgh for utility man Erik Gonzalez.

As we have said for years, we don’t believe Gonzalez will ever be a productive regular because of his lack of strike zone judgment. His career strikeout to walk ratio is 79:9.

Luplow has hit .300 in AAA with a 857 OPS at that level, and is solid defensively. That resume would put him in line to start in 2019 based on who the Indians have right now.

We are sure there will be more to come.

What Is Tito’s Second Half Secret? Mostly, It’s Pitching

Someday, maybe when Terry Francona accepts his plaque going into baseball’s Hall of Fame, he can explain why his teams get better in the second half of the season.

Since Tito took over the Indians in 2013, his teams have played at a .532 winning percentage (291-256) before the All Star Game, but a torrid .610 pace (236-151) after the Midsummer Classic.

Here is the tale season by season–

Pre All Star       Post All Star
2013                           51-44                  41-26
2014                           47-47                  38-30
2015                           42-46                  39-34
2016                           52-36                  42-31
2017                           47-40                  55-20
2018 to date             52-43 21-10

Sometimes, it’s because the roster has been reinforced, such as 2016, when the front office traded for Andrew Miller at the trade deadline, and then added Coco Crisp at the end of August.

One thing that does stand out is the staff ERA for the pitching staff. Check out these figures since Francona took over the Tribe–

Pre All Star      Post All Star
2013                             4.31                    3.13
2014                             3.98                    3.03
2015                             3.80                    3.53
2016                             3.65                    4.11
2017                             3.78                    2.76
2018 to date               4.00                    3.10

Only in 2016, the season in which the Indians went to the seventh game of the World Series, was the staff ERA not significantly less than it was in the first half of the season. In four of the seasons (including this one), the pitchers are yielding around a run less per game.

In 2013, Ubaldo Jimenez became unhittable down the stretch, and Scott Kazmir got his legs after coming back from a year outside the big leagues. Early in that season, Francona was using Vinnie Pestano as his set up man, and he proved to be ineffective. By the end of the year, Bryan Shaw and Cody Allen were in that role.

And Pestano was traded for Mike Clevinger.

The 2014 team saw the emergence in the second half of Carlos Carrasco, and T.J. House pitched great down the stretch. John Axford started the year as the closer, but he struggled and Allen took over the role, which solidified the entire bullpen.

That team fell three games short of getting in the Wild Card game.

In 2015, the pitching wasn’t significantly different in the second half, but they did get Josh Tomlin back from Tommy John surgery to make 10 very good starts (3.02 ERA) and Cody Anderson pitched well too.

Early in that season, the Tribe had Shaun Marcum (6 starts) and Bruce Chen (2) making starts. House started the year in the rotation based on his ’14 campaign, but started having arm problems.

The following year is the one season the bullpen ERA went up, and that was after adding Andrew Miller in mid-season deal. Mike Clevinger (rookie) and Cody Anderson (arm trouble) had to make 19 starts and had an ERA approaching 6.00 combined.

Last year, the second half was the time Trevor Bauer put it all together to become a dominant starter. Clevinger also joined the rotation full time and had a 3.11 ERA. In relief, Tyler Olson threw 20 scoreless innings.

This year’s improvement is due to an improved bullpen. Getting Brad Hand and Adam Cimber from San Diego, and Miller’s return from the disabled list helped a relief corps that was dismal in the first half.

Carlos Carrasco has had a better second half after he pitched below his standard before the All Star Game.

Sometimes a change in the lineup causes a surge too. In ’15, Frankie Lindor arrived and hit .313 after being called up. In ’16, Jose Ramirez settled in at 3B after beginning the year as a utility player.

But, by and large, it’s the pitching that makes the quantum leap. The organization’s development of the talent available can’t be appreciated enough.

One Third Of The Way In, Tribe Kind Of Treading Water

On the eve of Game 1 of the NBA Finals, the Cleveland completed the first third of their schedule with a 9-1 win over the White Sox, a game in which Corey Kluber earned his 8th win of the season.

That win made the Tribe 29-25 after 54 games, and in the last 27 games, Terry Francona’s squad went 14-13, slightly less than the 15-12 in the first 27 contests.

The offense is back on track, jumping up to third in the American League in runs scored per game. They are sixth in on base percentage and third in slugging as a team.

Unfortunately, they are ninth in the league in staff ERA, and that’s despite having three starting pitchers with ERAs under 3.14 (Kluber, Trevor Bauer, and Mike Clevinger).

The offense has been led, or maybe a more apt phrase is carried, by Jose Ramirez, Francisco Lindor, and Michael Brantley, who have formed a lethal top of the order.

Ramirez and Lindor both rank in the top five in the AL in extra base hits, the former is tied for second in the league in home runs, and the latter is tied for third in doubles.

And all three are in the top ten in OPS, with Ramirez ranking 4th, Lindor 7th, and Brantley 8th.

Edwin Encarnacion has gotten hot with the weather, now ranking in the top ten in the league in home runs with 14.

With Lonnie Chisenhall, Brandon Guyer, and Tyler Naquin getting ready to come back from injury, Francona and the staff will have difficult decisions to make in terms of the roster.

Rookie Greg Allen is making it very tough for the decision makers. Not counted on to be a big contributor this season, the switch-hitter has hit .286 thus far, and has cut down on strikeouts over the last 11 games.

When the injured return, you have to think it will be difficult for Rajai Davis to keep a roster spot.

The problem for the pitching staff continues to be the bullpen, as 43% of the runs the Indians have allowed this season have come in the 7th inning or later. In addition, the relievers have coughed up more than a third of the dingers allowed by the pitching staff (28 of the 82) so far in 2018.

We thought Zach McAllister was prone to the gopher ball last season, allowing eight in 62 innings. To date this year, he has allowed six in 21-2/3 frames.

Although he hasn’t been primarily a reliever, Josh Tomlin has allowed a whopping 18 round trippers in 36 innings. He’s pitched in 12 games, and only NOT allowed a homer in four of them.

He leads the league in that category despite pitching 26 innings less than anyone else in the top five.

We understand the front office is aware of the problem, and brought in veteran Oliver Perez yesterday, and it may be the trade deadline before a permanent solution is sought, but until it’s fixed, it will be a very nervous time for Tribe fans in the late innings.

Yes, it’s true the Indians are 2.5 games ahead in the AL Central. It’s also a fact that the second place team, Detroit, is in rebuilding mode and isn’t even over .500 for the young season.

Cleveland was supposed to be one of the four best teams in the American League heading into the season, so from that standpoint they’ve underachieved.

On the other hand, if the Tribe fixes its bullpen, there is no reason they can’t make a deep run in the post-season with their starting rotation and hitting.

Perhaps in the next 27 games, we will start to see answers for the relief corps.

Tribe Sequel: Bullpen From Hell, Part Deux

Many baseball people believe you really can’t evaluate a baseball team until 40 games have been played, a quarter of the baseball season.

If that is true of the Indians’ front office, they would see a team that has a lot of potholes that need to be filled and the quicker, the better.

Chief among the holes is the bullpen, which according to ERA, is the worst in baseball. It says something about the volatility of relief pitching that just two years ago, in 2016, the Tribe bully carried the team to the World Series.

To date, of the 185 runs given up by Cleveland pitching this season, 76 have scored in the 7th inning or later. In Tuesday night’s debacle against the Tigers, five more were added to the total, all scoring in a disastrous seventh inning.

Really, no one is pitching well in relief, other than Cody Allen, and even he melted down in New York less than two weeks ago.

Andrew Miller just returned from the disabled list and still isn’t sharp, giving up the lead in two of this last three appearances.

Miller’s injury caused a major upheaval in the ‘pen, and it appears because of it, Terry Francona started handling his relievers like it was the post-season.

He started extending the starters, with several throwing more pitches than the normally threw in a game.

For example, last season, Carlos Carrasco threw more than 110 pitches in a game just three times. In 2018, he has already done it four times. It’s only May.

Mike Clevinger never reached the 110 pitch threshold in 2017, but to date this season, he’s done it three times.

How will this affect the starting pitchers as the season goes on? It’s definitely something to keep an eye on.

The front office didn’t fill the holes created by the departures of Bryan Shaw and Joe Smith in the off-season, and that has caused a tremendous void.

The skipper tried Zach McAllister in Shaw’s seventh inning role to start the season, but the veteran has put up a 7.47 ERA and has allowed five home runs in just 15-2/3 innings. Somehow, he remains on the roster despite never being trusted to pitch in high leverage situations.

Dan Otero, a reliable reliever over the last two seasons (ERAs of 1.53 and 2.85), has the same ERA as McAllister in the same number of innings.

Another holdover from a year ago, Nick Goody, is on the disabled list, but before he went out, he allowed four dingers in 11-2/3 innings, and had a 6.94 ERA.

Right now, the most recent good outings by relievers not named Allen, were by Oliver Drake, who just came over from Milwaukee in a trade, and Neil Ramirez, a veteran signed in the off-season on a minor league free agent, and just brought up from Columbus.

It is such a dire situation, that we would call on either of them if the Indians have a lead this weekend in Houston. Guys like Otero, McAllister, and southpaw Tyler Olson would have regain trust by having a series of good outings.

The good news is bullpen arms should be plentiful at the trade deadline. Unfortunately, the Tribe will have to give up assets that could have been used elsewhere to acquire them.

Right now, it’s a wet blanket on the entire squad.

Tribe Starters Still Make Them Elite

There is no question this year’s off-season for the Cleveland Indians is not as exciting as last winter.

The biggest reason is a year ago, the Tribe brought in a big ticket free agent in Edwin Encarnacion and another bullpen arm in Boone Logan.

This year, most of the free agent news have been people leaving Cleveland. Relievers Bryan Shaw and Joe Smith went to Colorado and Houston respectively, while Carlos Santana (Philadelphia), Jay Bruce (New York Mets) and Austin Jackson (San Francisco) have also departed.

Even Logan is gone, signing with the Brewers.

Still, as spring training is a mere weeks away from commencing, Terry Francona’s team is the odds on favorite to defend their Central Division title, and they would still be considered one of the best teams in baseball.

The biggest reason for this is the Indians’ starting rotation, which may still be the best in baseball.

The starters ranked 2nd in Major League Baseball in ERA in 2017, ranking behind only the Dodgers, who have the advantage of playing in a league without the DH.

The only AL team within a half run of Cleveland’s 3.52 mark for starters is the Yankees, who had a 3.98 ERA. The World Champion Astros were at 4.03.

Among innings pitched for starting hurlers, two National League teams (Washington and San Francisco) led the majors, while the Tribe and Red Sox tied for the American League top spot.

Texas was next, a full 43 frames behind the leaders.

Indians’ starters also led the big leagues in strikeouts with 1066, 54 more than second place Washington and 65 more than the AL runner up, Boston.

And the Tribe’s rotation also narrowly edged the Yankees and Astros for the lowest batting average against.

That part of the team has been unaffected this winter. In fact, the Indians have six starters contending for the starting roles to start the season in Cy Young Award winner Corey Kluber, the man who finished fourth in the voting, Carlos Carrasco, and 17 game winner Trevor Bauer fronting the rotation.

They are backed up by Danny Salazar, who has as electric stuff as perhaps any of the three guys also mentioned, Mike Clevinger, who went 12-6 with a 3.11 ERA in 27 appearances (21 starts), and Josh Tomlin, who would be a middle of the rotation guys for many MLB teams.

Southpaw Ryan Merritt, who is 3-0 with a 1.71 ERA in five big league appearances, and Cody Anderson, who went 7-3 with a 3.05 ERA in 15 starts in 2015, before hurting his elbow and missing all of last year with Tommy John surgery.

Something has to give, because Merritt is out of options, and of course, since the Tribe will start the year with five starters, someone who started a year ago will have to begin this season in the bullpen.

We would guess since Anderson is coming off an injury, he will start the year at Columbus.

Julian Merryweather could make some starts at the big league level in 2018, and Cleveland still has Shawn Morimando and Adam Plutko at AAA too.

So they have some depth as well, although to be fair, none of those guys are even close to the six pitchers who made most of the starts in Cleveland in 2017.

That’s the big reason the Indians are still among baseball’s elite. Very few teams can put someone out there each and every night who has the ability to put zeroes on the scoreboard.

Francona always says when you think you have enough pitching, you go out and get more. It looks like the front office agrees.

Tribe’s Loss Stings, But Future Is Still Bright.

While it is certainly a shock to our system that the Cleveland Indians’ season ended abruptly Wednesday night, our biggest takeaway is that it’s baseball.

Look at it this way, the best team in football wins around 85% of the regular season games. In basketball, that figure is around 75%.

In baseball, a team that wins 100 games in the regular season, is victorious in 62% of the contests. A five game period like the one the Tribe just went through in the Division Series, occurs in June or July all the time.

The Indians didn’t hit, scoring just five runs combined in the last three games, and that isn’t going to get it done. You have to get more offense.

Players like Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez, and Edwin Encarnacion couldn’t get a hit, let alone one in the clutch, and all three had slumps during the regular season.

We questioned not using Mike Clevinger as a fourth starter in this series and not starting Yandy Diaz at third base, and those are legitimate now as well. The former wasn’t the bullpen weapon Terry Francona thought he would be, and perhaps Diaz’ bat could have helped the offense.

However, people thinking there will be drastic changes, or need to be drastic changes are just wrong.

As it stands right now, the Indians are the favorite to win the American League Central Division in 2018, and their roster is set up to contend for the next few years.

And as we just learned and should remember from last year’s run to the World Series, once you get in the playoffs, you have a good chance to win it all.

We have said many times that the best thing about the Indians is their two best players are 25 (Ramirez) and 23 (Lindor). And they have one of best prospects in the game in Francisco Mejia coming soon.

Where Mejia will play is up for debate at this time.

And don’t forget about Bradley Zimmer, who tailed off after a hot start, but should improve in his second big league season.

They still have the best starting rotation in the game, and if Trevor Bauer has found some consistency, they could have a top three that is the envy of any GM in the game, and Clevinger went 12-6 in his first extended big league experience.

They also have Danny Salazar, Josh Tomlin, and Ryan Merritt to fill out the rotation.

Bryan Shaw and Joe Smith are free agents, so there may be a couple of holes in the bullpen, but we wouldn’t be surprised if one or both are back in 2018.

The front office does have some decisions to make. Carlos Santana and Jay Bruce are free agents, and Michael Brantley has a club option for ’18.

Our bet on the free agents is that it will come down to years, because the Indians can’t afford to pay a player big money (over $10 million per year) for someone who isn’t producing.

And where will Jason Kipnis play in 2018? It’s pretty clear the Tribe wants to use Ramirez at 2B going forward, so is Kipnis’ move to the outfield permanent. A lot could depend on what happens with Santana and Bruce.

We think many fans got caught thinking the playoffs would be a cakewalk because of last year. The Yankees were a better club than either the Red Sox or the Blue Jays, and most of the key players stopped hitting.

It’s a reminder of how special last year’s run to the Fall Classic with basically three starters was.

It’s painful now, but the future is very bright for the Cleveland Indians. Just win the division next year and take another shot at winning the whole thing.

The Tribe’s Remarkable Streak Carries Remarkable Numbers.

By now, we think everyone knows that the Cleveland Indians are on a 19 game winning streak, and tonight they will attempt to tie the American League record of 20 straight wins, set by the Oakland A’s in 2002.

Those are the A’s portrayed in the movie “Moneyball”.

There are a lot of remarkable numbers and statistics that go along with the streak, but in our opinion, the one that stands out is that the Tribe has allowed just 32 runs during the 19 victories, and six of those came in the first win, against Boston.

That means over the next 18 contests, opponents have scored just 26 runs, an average of only 1.4 per game.

No matter what kind of team you have, you will win a lot of games if you only have to get two runs to win.

However, Terry Francona’s crew has scored more than two runs per game, they have scored 132 runs during the streak, averaging 6.9 runs per game.

That also computes to a run differential of 100 runs in these games. With the Indians leading the AL in that category, the second place team is the Yankees, and they have scored 152 more runs than their opponents…for the entire season.

At the All Star break, it seemed impossible that the Tribe could get the best record in the AL and thus have home field advantage in the league playoffs, but right now, they have that distinction right now, although there is still three weeks on the schedule.

Even with that record, according to their run differential on the season, Cleveland is below where they should be record wise, their real mark being 88-56, while their Pythagorean win/loss is 94-50.

More numbers that boggle your mind. The Indians’ pitching staff have six shutouts in the 19 games. They have only one three one-run games, while only two others have been decided by two runs.

This means there have only been five close games in the bunch.

By contrast, Francona’s squad has won four games by 10 or more runs, and in total have emerged victorious by five or more runs in eight contests.

Eleven of the wins came on the road, meaning eight have come at home. They had an overall scoreless streak of 30 innings, starting in game one vs. Boston, and ended by Corey Kluber, of all people.

They carried a 37 inning scoreless skein at Progressive Field, which just ended last Saturday afternoon against the Orioles.

Mike Clevinger has not allowed a run during the streak, making three starts, and pitching six scoreless innings in each of them.

Trevor Bauer has four wins, Kluber and Clevinger have won three, while Carlos Carrasco, Josh Tomlin, and Ryan Merritt have two victories.

Cleveland’s magic number was 33 before they stopped losing, and it is now six. There is a real possibility the Indians could have a champagne celebration before they leave town on Sunday night.

Perhaps the craziest thing is that Michael Brantley, Jason Kipnis, and Andrew Miller haven’t made an appearance on the field during this span. That speaks to the depth the front office has accumulated this season.

Because of the streak, Jay Bruce has been on the roster for 33 games, and the Indians are 28-5.

It’s a remarkable run for this baseball team, and it keeps on going. After a season with mixed results for four months, the Tribe is the talk of baseball right now.