Tribe Front Office Needs Realistic Viewpoint

The Cleveland Indians have hit the all-star break and are very clearly in contention for a playoff spot despite a .500 record for the first 94 games of the season.

The big question is can the Tribe put together a strong enough second half to make up the 3-1/2 games currently separating them from the American League’s final playoff spot. Right now, that belongs to Seattle.

The other serious contenders to play in the wild card game are Kansas City, Toronto, and New York. The first wild card spot looks like it belongs to the Angels. Quite frankly, several other teams could get back in the mix with a good hot streak too.

All four of the primary contenders are looking to add to their roster and to be fair, Tribe GM Chris Antonetti has said he is looking to upgrade the Indians as well.

As we have written in the past, the Tribe has been a slave to inconsistency throughout the roster for much of the season. The only real steady players this year have been Michael Brantley, Yan Gomes, Mike Aviles on the offensive side, and Corey Kluber, Trevor Bauer, and the back-end of the bullpen (Scott Atchison, Bryan Shaw, and Cody Allen).

Management’s problem in evaluating the rest of the roster is that they look at the good side of each player’s streaks as what they truly are. For example, yesterday it was said that Asdrubal Cabrera was getting hot at the plate, on a 7 for 16 run.

However, he’s put together three or four good games in a row before, and then follows that with a 2 for 13 streak. That’s the kind of player he is, and he’s not the only one, he’s just the one picked for this example.

Look, not all major league players are great, nor are they steady day in and day out. However, you have to recognize that the one’s who can’t maintain regular production are not good players, and the team should be looking to improve at that spot.

The worst thing for a coach or manager to deal with is inconsistency. It drives them crazy if they don’t know what to expect when they put a player into the game.

It’s even worse for a starting pitcher, and that’s been the Tribe’s biggest problem as to why they haven’t been able to put together a long winning streak.

Justin Masterson has been mostly terrible since the middle of May. Josh Tomlin almost threw a perfect game against Seattle, but that was really his only good start in a six start span.

Zack McAllister started out 3-0 in his first five starts, but hasn’t won since. T.J. House has pitched well in some games, but has had trouble pitching five innings in several others.

It’s difficult to put together winning streaks when three fifths of your starting rotation can’t give you a solid six innings on a regular basis.

The lack of consistency is the biggest reason the Indians need to pull the trigger before the end of the month and they should look to bring in a right-handed bat, a spot Ryan Raburn hasn’t been able to handle thus far (.197 average, 2 HR), and a starting pitcher who can provide six or seven solid innings on most nights.

The biggest bait Antonetti may have is 2B Jose Ramirez, hitting .298 with a .353 on base percentage at Columbus. Ramirez is blocked in Cleveland by Jason Kipnis, and probably should be playing in the big leagues now.

Here’s hoping that the Tribe is willing to do something substantial at the deadline. It’s tough to rely on going 21-6 in September every year.

Tribe’s Biggest Enemy: Consistency

The numbers say the Cleveland Indians should be going after a pitcher.

After all, the Tribe ranks 5th in the American League in runs scored, while the pitching staff’s ERA is 11th out of the 15 AL squads. Sounds simple, right?

However, we believe that GM Chris Antonetti should be looking for a starting pitcher and a bat to help the offense as well. Why? Because, even though Cleveland is in the top half of the league in scoring, most of the hitters in the lineup are inconsistent to say the least.

Outside of Michael Brantley and Yan Gomes, the Indians’ batters go through streaks of being either real hot or real cold.

That’s mirrors the team’s hitting, either they score 5 or 6 runs a night for a week or so, or they go through periods like last week when they get one hit in back-to-back contests. There is no consistency to the Cleveland attack.

Let’s take Jason Kipnis for example. Since the beginning of last season, here are his monthly batting averages: .200, .261, .419, .272, .250, .287, .234, and .255. So, in the last eight months, last year’s All-Star representative has two good months and one unreal one.

He’s supposed to be one of the Tribe’s best players.

How about Asdrubal Cabrera? His monthly breakdowns are as follows: .226, .278, .204, .221, .242, .220, .274, .243. That would equal two solid months and the balance being mediocre.

Carlos Santana is a key to the Tribe offense because he’s one of the few Tribe players capable of hitting 20 HR in a season. His last two seasons break out this way: .389, .200, .250, .294, .240, .271, .151, .169, .308. You get the picture.

We understand that not everyone can be steady as she goes, and we certainly know that Brantley and Gomes have periods where they go 1 for 14 and 2 for 19 too.

But that isn’t 1 for 44, like the streak David Murphy just ended.

When Kipnis, Cabrera, and Santana are all going well, the Indians’ offense is very productive, the problem is when you have those months where the three aren’t producing, it’s a tough team to watch.

And that’s why the runs scored statistic is misleading. Yes, Cleveland ranks high in the league in scoring, but they also are among the leaders in games in which they score less than three runs in a contest.

The inconsistency also extends to the starting pitching, where Corey Kluber and really, Trevor Bauer can be counted on the provide the same type of outings every time they take the hill.

Yes, Josh Tomlin threw a one-hitter against Seattle. In his other four starts his June 12th, the “Little Cowboy” has pitched 20-2/3 innings, allowing 18 runs.

Justin Masterson’s struggles are well-documented, as he has pitched less than five innings in four of his last seven starts. He really has had only one quality outing since May 3rd, that being a seven inning, one run performance against the Angels.

So perhaps Antonetti’s biggest challenge is to bring in some players who are steady, guys who Terry Francona can count on a nightly basis. Maybe it’s a solid .270 hitter, or a starter who can provide six or seven decent innings per start.

They may not have to be all-star type players. Just ones whose performance isn’t up and down like an elevator.

The times when the Tribe players are all hot are a joy to watch, but too often it is followed by a losing streak. That’s why they have sat around the .500 mark for most of this season.

Tribe Is In It, But They Are a Flawed Team

As the baseball season rapidly approaches the midway point, it is clear that the Cleveland Indians are a contender for a playoff spot due to the balance of the American League.

The Tribe currently sits at 37-39 on the season, but they are just five games out of first place in the AL Central, and are three games out of the second wild card spot in the AL.

However, it is also obvious that the Tribe is a flawed team, and it will be tough to make the post-season for a second straight year with the roster as currently constituted.

The Indians rank fifth in the AL in runs scored per game, but they have several holes in the lineup that have to be addressed. The league average OPS sits at 714 right now. The Tribe has three players getting regular at bats who sit way below this figure: Nick Swisher (595), Ryan Raburn (525) and Mike Aviles (631).

Since the Francona prefers 13 pitchers on the roster, that means 25% of the position players aren’t really producing at the plate.

Considering two of those players (Raburn and Aviles) get most of their playing time vs. left-handed pitching, you can see the Tribe is very susceptible against southpaws.

That forces the skipper to ride his regulars. Yan Gomes doesn’t get many days off and he’s playing a grueling position, as does Michael Bourn. David Murphy is probably being overexposed as well.

Also, Jason Kipnis isn’t hitting either (.247 batting average, 679 OPS), but he continues to hit in the middle of the lineup. And although Lonnie Chisenhall has been a pleasant surprise, even we would say it is doubtful he will continue to hit like he has thus far.

What happens when he cools off, which he has over the last two weeks.

Outside of Michael Brantley, who is having an all-star season, most of the players who are hitting are liabilities in the field. Chisenhall’s defense has been below average and SS Asdrubal Cabrera’s has been atrocious.

A logical move could be to move Cabrera to 3B, and let Chisenhall DH, and bring up prime prospect Francisco Lindor, but where does that leave the team’s highest paid player in Swisher?

As for the starting pitchers, Francona probably only feels comfortable when Corey Kluber takes the mound. The other four starters are inconsistent to say the least. Trevor Bauer shows the most promise, but no one knows what will happen when Justin Masterson and Josh Tomlin take the hill.

And there really isn’t any help to come from within either. The manager doesn’t have confidence in Jose Ramirez and Jesus Aguilar to use them on a consistent basis, and the only starting pitcher options are lefty T.J. House, who was okay when he was here, and Danny Salazar, who struggled earlier in the campaign.

That means GM Chris Antonetti has to make a deal, and based on the inactivity in the off-season, Tribe fans can’t feel optimistic about that. The Indians farm system is getting better, but the front office seems to fear being burned giving up a young prospect.

And they can’t and shouldn’t deal Lindor or last year’s first round pick Clint Frazier for a player who at best would play here for a year and a half.

The point is this, the Indians are probably good enough to hand around the playoff race, but they are flawed and they don’t seem to want to correct those flaws.

The manager still believes guys like Raburn and Swisher will start hitting, and the front office doesn’t seem anxious to go outside for help.

That’s very frustrating to say the least.

Tribe Still Surviving at the Quarter Pole

Tonight, the Cleveland Indians will play their 40th game of the season, which obviously means the campaign is one-quarter over.

Suddenly, it’s not early anymore, but there is still plenty of season remaining.

The Tribe sits at 18-21 on the season, and with the jumbled American League, they are still in the thick of it for a post-season spot, although the Tigers seem to be running away (again!) with the Central Division.

Eleven of the 15 teams in the AL sit within three games of the .500 mark, an incredible number considering the number of games played so far. Only Oakland and Detroit are more than three games over the break-even mark.

Cleveland’s pitching is holding its own, ranking in the top half of the league (7th) in ERA, despite the struggles of their #1 starter, Justin Masterson, and having to sit down the closer that started the season, John Axford.

Masterson hasn’t pitched poorly (2-2, 4.31 ERA), but he certainly hasn’t pitched as well as he did last season. He’s had several outings thus far where he has been dominating early, only to lose it completely.

Yesterday was one of those games, with the big right-hander retiring the first nine Blue Jays, but then giving up five runs in the next 2-1/3 innings.

Axford has struck out 16 hitters in 15-2/3 innings, but he’s walked 13 and allowed three home runs. Putting hitters on via walk and giving up bombs isn’t a way for a closer to stay a closer for long.

The bigger issue for Terry Francona’s club is the offense, which sits at 12th in the league in runs scored, 13th in batting average, and 12th in OPS. All of those ranks are in the bottom third of the AL.

While no one outside of Michael Brantley has been consistently good so far, the biggest culprits for the offensive ineptitude would be Carlos Santana, Nick Swisher, and Ryan Raburn.

Thank goodness, Santana has continued to draw walks (he’s second in the AL with 32), because otherwise he would be a total disaster. He’s hitting just .152 for the season with 4 HR and 11 RBI. His OPS is under 600 (597) for the season.

Francona is a very patient manager, but it will be tough to keep the switch-hitter in the clean up spot much longer.

As bad as Santana’s OPS is with his batting average at .152, Swisher’s isn’t much better at 618.

The Tribe’s big free agent acquisition a year ago, the first baseman is languishing at .204, 2 HR, and 15 RBI. That’s a pace to hit less than 10 dingers and knock in about 60 runs for the season.

The weird stat though, is that those RBIs ranked third on the team, behind Brantley and David Murphy. That’s how much everyone else as struggled as well.

Swisher has been terrible vs. lefties, hitting just .156 against southpaws. The Tribe has struggled against left-handed starters all season, and this is just one reason.

Another reason is the production of Raburn, hitting just .176 with a 433 OPS. He did a great job of hitting southpaws last season, one of the reasons for the team’s success vs. lefties. He batted .308 and slugged over .600 in 2013.
This year, Raburn’s just 7 for 40 against those pitchers and has just two extra base hits on the season. It’s reminiscent of his horrible 2012 season, which led to his release by the Tigers.

He’s pretty much only been used against left-handers this season, whereas last year, he got more at-bats against righties. Maybe he just needs some more playing time to get going.

Despite all that has gone wrong with the offense, including the injury to all-star Jason Kipnis, it really is remarkable the Indians aren’t buried in terms of contention.

Still, the bats have to pick up over the long haul or the burden on the starting pitching and bullpen will be too much for the staff to handle over the last 75% of the season.