Aggressiveness Continues for Tribe Front Office

For the past several years, the management of the Cleveland Indians has seemed to be in a state of inertia.

Of course, this winter the front office went out and did something, getting Terry Francona to manage and inking several free agents, most notably Nick Swisher, Michael Bourn, and Mark Reynolds.

They’ve received a lot of credit for making those moves.

However, the maneuvers continue for the management into the regular season, something that hasn’t been the case the past few years.

Who is responsible for both styles of roster management?  Was GM Chris Antonetti shown religion by Francona, who seems to insist on having a representative roster for every game, or did former skipper Manny Acta make the same requests, but was not heard by the GM?

Since day one of this season, the Indians have been very active in sending players up and down from Columbus in order to give the manager lineup flexibility.

A couple of moves in the last two weeks illustrate what we are talking about.

While Bourn was out with his finger injury, the Indians were short an outfielder, but were able to get by using Swisher and Ryan Raburn in right, moving Drew Stubbs to centerfield.  However, Francona felt these guys needed some rest, so when Ezequiel Carrera was designated for assignment by Philadelphia, the Tribe picked him up.

Carrera was used as a pinch-runner in his first game and started the next night, getting two hits.  The next day, the Tribe DFA’d him again, and he went through waivers and is now at Columbus, still in the organization.

This is something the front office wouldn’t have done in the past.  But you know who does do stuff like that?  The Boston Red Sox used to bring guys in and out all the time, and perhaps it’s not a coincidence that the Indians are doing it now, if you know what we mean.

Today, the Tribe sent struggling third baseman Lonnie Chisenhall back to AAA, but the move was probably made as insurance for Chris Perez’ tender shoulder.  The Indians wanted an extra arm out of the bullpen with a doubleheader against the Yankees, and the only position player who could or deserved be moved was Chisenhall.

The guess here is Chiz will be back in ten days to two weeks, which will allow him to get his swing and confidence back.  In the meantime, Raburn, Mike Aviles, and a little Reynolds will hold down the hot corner.

With the bullpen not over-exposed in the twin bill and an extra player needed in Philadelphia, where the pitcher will have to hit, look for a relief pitcher (probably Nick Hagadone, who has struggled to throw strikes in his last two outings) to be sent back to Columbus in favor of another position player, possibly Cord Phelps.

Again, it is just the Tribe getting the most of their organization, and putting the major league team in the best position to win on a night in, night out basis.

It’s what all the big teams do.  And this season, it looks like the Cleveland Indians are joining the big boys, not only in the standings, but in attitude.

MW

Good Start, But Tribe Needs Consistency

After Saturday’s 7-3 victory over the Minnesota Twins, the Cleveland Indians completed their 27th game, hitting the 1/6th pole on the season.

What have we learned about this baseball team?

We have learned that the offense is about what most people figured it would be, which is a lot of feast and famine.  The Indians rank fifth in the American League in runs scored, but through 27 games, they scored three runs or less in more than half of the contests (14).

On the other hand, they scored eight or more runs eight times.  That leaves only five games where they scored between four and seven tallies.

That’s very inconsistent, although to be fair, they have been missing Michael Bourn for the last two weeks. 

We have also learned that it appears Carlos Santana is becoming the all around hitter we thought he would be when he was called up in 2010.  The switch-hitting catcher is batting .379 with six homers thus far, with an OPS of 1.160. 

While it would be crazy to suggest he will end the year with those numbers, it looks like Santana is on his way to an outstanding season.

Free agent signee Mark Reynolds has also had a tremendous start, and is on his way to topping 30 HRs barring injury.  He will have a period where he struggles, based on his past, but he seems to be getting better as a hitter, giving in a little bit with two strikes. 

He doesn’t even lead the Tribe in striking out so far.

Asdrubal Cabrera (.222, 2 HR, 13 RBI), Jason Kipnis (.218, 2 HR, 10 RBI), and Lonnie Chisenhall (.231, 3 HR, 11 RBI) are all off to relatively slow starts, and should produce better as the season goes on, and some of the hot hitters tail off a bit.

We have learned that the Indians have quality depth in INF Mike Aviles and OF Ryan Raburn, both of whom have been very productive when called upon.  Yan Gomes and Jason Giambi have contributed as well.

The bullpen has been very good as Bryan Shaw and Cody Allen have allowed Terry Francona to have five solid hard throwing right-handers at his disposal.  And Rich Hill has done a good job as the ‘pen’s LOOGY (left-handed one out guy).

The starting rotation, which figured to be the club’s biggest weakness, has been strong lately, but had a shaky start. 

Ubaldo Jimenez continues to be the biggest question mark, pitching well in his first start and last start, however, the three in between were brutal.  At this point, Francona can’t know what he is going to get on a start-by-start basis.

The other wild card is southpaw Scott Kazmir, who has got better in each of his three starts, and looks to be a very pleasant surprise. 

Zack McAllister has continued to show that he is solid, capable of keeping his team in the game in every start.

Justin Masterson was tremendous in his first five starts, but the last two have been so-so.  He needs to go out there and give Francona seven quality frames on most nights. 

The key going forward for the Tribe is the number of quality innings their starters can give them.  They need to get to the sixth or seventh most of the time.  Doing that will keep the bullpen fresh throughout the season.

The first checkpoint for the season shows the Tribe has held ground.  They’ve been up and down, but they haven’t played themselves out of the race. 

If they can be more consistent, both on offense and in starting pitching, it may be an enjoyable summer of baseball at Progressive Field.

MW

Great Move by Tribe to Upgrade Bench

Much of the excitement over the fine off-season the Cleveland Indians front office had been based on getting Terry Francona to manage the squad, and the signings of free agents Nick Swisher, Mark Reynolds, Michael Bourn, and Brett Myers.

They also remade the bench, and so far those guys have come up huge in the early going for the Tribe.

With the injuries to Bourn and Swisher, and remember Carlos Santana and Jason Kipnis missed some time as well, the bench guys have received playing time and have been productive.

Mike Aviles is tied for third in RBIs and Ryan Raburn in sixth on the club despite having played less than many of the players Francona writes in the batting order everyday.

And what may be even bigger, they understand their role.

Gone are the days of having to play Aaron Cunningham, Brett Lillibridge, and Vinny Rottino when a starter can’t go.

GM Chris Antonetti did an excellent job of getting veterans, who understand their job and their role, to come off the bench.   These guys don’t need everyday at bats to stay sharp.

On the recent five game winning streak, Aviles had a five RBI game vs. Kansas City, and Raburn reincarnated Babe Ruth slugging a pair of homers in back to back games, and getting 12 hits in 14 at bats.

That’s getting help from the bench.

It helps that  both Aviles and Raburn are 32 years old.  They’ve been around the game for a while and they aren’t looking for a chance to play every day.

Aviles was the Red Sox’ starting shortstop last season, but his career shows he’s been much better when he doesn’t play everyday.  He hit .250 in 2012, but is a career .276 hitter.

Raburn suffered through a terrible season in 2012, batting just .171 with only one home run.  However, he averaged 15 dingers a year from 2009-11 with the Tigers and can play both corner outfield spots, as well as 2B and 3B.

Certainly, Aviles and Raburn have been the key contributors, but you can’t overlook the play of reserve catcher Yan Gomes and DH Jason Giambi.

Gomes, who came in the same deal with Toronto as did Aviles, is slowly but surely replacing Lou Marson as the back up catcher, showing more offense in his limited at bats as Marson ever did.  The Brazilian native has four extra base hits in 31 at bats, compared to 10 all last year from Marson.

Giambi has two doubles, two homers, and three walks in limited playing time.  He’s also well-respected in the clubhouse, a great role model for the young players like Jason Kipnis and Lonnie Chisenhall.

And Francona has experience in using a veteran bench too.  He tries to put all of these guys in positions where they can succeed.

The production from the bench will also keep the regulars fresh over the long haul of baseball’s regular season.  Last year, it was evident that Asdrubal Cabrera and Kipnis wore down from playing every day as the Tribe didn’t have a quality reserve that the manager, Manny Acta, could trust.

No one should expect Raburn to continue channel Hank Aaron for the rest of the season, and there will certainly be days and weeks where the reserve players won’t produce.

Still, the Indians filled some holes on the bench which are just as important as the ones they filled in the starting lineup.

Those moves have helped the Indians tread water during the first month of the season.

KM

Stubbs’ Struggles are Worrisome

Before the season started, most baseball experts felt the biggest weakness for the Cleveland Indians would be starting pitching.

It has been, with only Justin Masterson and Zack McAllister showing any consistency thus far.  The other three spots in the rotation seem to be wish, hope, and pray to this point in the season.

However, the offense has struggled as well, despite last night’s 19-6 beat down in Houston, and we don’t expect that to continue for much longer.  Two time all-star SS Asdrubal Cabrera is hitting just .150 with only four extra base hits.  As skipper Terry Francona said the other day, Cabrera’s next 50 at bats could be as hot as he is cold right now.

And 2B Jason Kipnis will start to hit too, as will young 3B Lonnie Chisenhall, who is hitting just .224 with only one walk compared to 15 strikeouts to this point.

Also, CF Michael Bourn will return in another week, and he was off to a great start, hitting .333 through the first ten games.

There is one guy to be concerned about however, and that would be OF Drew Stubbs, because his start seems to be a continuation of the downward spiral his career has been taking.

The eighth overall pick in 2006, the outfielder burst on the scene in 2009, hitting .267 with eight home runs in 42 games that season.  That promise showed through even more in 2010, when the big right-handed hitter batted .255 with 22 dingers in his first year as a regular.

It’s been downhill from there as Stubbs’ production has waned while his strikeouts have started to pile up.  His power numbers dropped in ’11 to 15 home runs and 14 last year, while striking out 205 times in 2011 and 166 times (in 140 fewer plate appearances) last year.

This season, Stubbs has fanned 19 times in 57 times at the plate, while having just three extra base hits, all doubles.  He leads the Indians in whiffing, amazing since the Tribe has notorious swing and miss Mark Reynolds on the roster.

Reynolds, though, has been productive when making contact, leading Cleveland with 6 HR and 17 RBI.  Stubbs hasn’t hit one out yet this season, and he hadn’t scored a run this season until last night.  While that is not totally his fault, it is a telling stat.

With his 3 for 4 evening yesterday, Stubbs is hitting .255 on the season with a 647 OPS.  That’s the nature of early season statistics, they can fluctuate greatly with one good game.  His batting average was .213 before last night.

To be sure, GM Chris Antonetti and Francona were hoping Stubbs would regain his pop with a different approach and that may still be the case.  As we said, it is very early.  However, his early difficulties continue the trend from the past three seasons.

It is much like saying it’s only two starts for Ubaldo Jimenez in 2013.  You have to remember that this is a continuation of the right-handers struggles since he came to Cleveland in July 2011.

It’s a trend, and when things are going on a downhill plane, the player needs to show improvement right away.

Stubbs needs to produce soon, because when Bourn is back, he may lose playing time by moving Nick Swisher to RF, Reynolds to 1B, and using a combination of Jason Giambi, Mike Aviles, and Carlos Santana at DH.

The Tribe brass was hoping Drew Stubbs could regain the production of his early career when they dealt for him this winter.  Right now, they have to be a little concerned that he won’t.

MW

Young Vets Ready to Make Impact for Tribe

Much of the optimism for this year’s Cleveland Indians has centered on the money spent by the Dolan ownership, which resulted in the signing of free agents Nick Swisher, Mark Reynolds, Michael Bourn and Brett Myers.

However, another reason for the Tribe’s improvement offensively will come from three young players who have been on fans’ radar for more than a year.  These three, 2B Jason Kipnis, LF Michael Brantley, and 3B Lonnie Chisenhall are poised to take the step into being better than average players at their position.

Kipnis, who will be 26 next week, burst on the scene when he joined the team half way through the 2011 season, posting a 841 OPS in 150 at bats.  He got off to a solid start to the 2012 season, hitting .280 with 8 HR and 30 RBI through the end of May.

The pitchers adjusted after that and Kipnis hit just .246 with 6 HR and 46 RBI the rest of the season.  He didn’t slug over .400 in any month for the balance of the year.

Besides the different way he was being pitches, fatigue also may have been a factor because it was difficult to give Kipnis a day off because the Indians had very little depth.  This year, that shouldn’t be a factor.

The “JK Kid” has a great track record of hitting in the minors (863 OPS in almost 1000 at bats), so we feel confident he will bounce back and more resemble the ’11 edition of Kipnis rather than the guy who struggled the last four months  in 2012.

Brantley has spent time in the big leagues every year since 2009, so it seems like he should be older than 26, which he will turn in May.  He had his best season last year, hitting .288, 6 HR, 60 RBI, 750 OPS, but has steadily improved in each of the last three seasons, and at his age that should continue in ’13.

His improvement has come in both his on base percentage and slugging percentage, so it wouldn’t be a stretch if he could get the OPS over the 800 mark this season, which would make him a very good offensive player.  He had 47 extra base hits in 2012, and as he gets stronger, it’s not out of the realm of possibility that some of the 37 doubles he had last year start to fly over the fence.

That extra base hit number represents an increase of 12 from the year before.  It wouldn’t be a shock if Brantley had close to 60 extra base knocks in 2013, figure about 45 doubles and 15 homers.

Chisenhall, 24, is finally free of the managers’ infatuation with defense at the hot corner and will get his shot at being the everyday third baseman.  He has 12 HRs in 350 big league at bats, which figures to 17 dingers in 500 plate appearances.

His struggles against southpaws are overblown because he’s had only 88 at bats vs. lefties in his brief time in the bigs, and still has managed five homers in those chances.  That’s not to say we wouldn’t give him a day off against a guy like C.C. Sabathia, but he should get an opportunity to play virtually everyday.

He’s had a monster spring, which doesn’t always translate, but he has a smooth left-handed swing, and seems to be more selective at the plate.  That may be because Terry Francona basically told him the job was his to lose and he relaxed at the dish.

These three guys, along with the free agent acquisitions, are the reason the Indians’ offense will be much better than the past two seasons.  They will allow Francona to play most days with tough outs throughout the lineup.

American League teams need seven out of nine guys to be able to provide quality at bats.  The Tribe has that in 2013.

KM

Tribe Starting Pitching Still a Bit Scary

Indians’ GM Chris Antonetti did a major rehaul over the off-season to his baseball team, mostly concentrating on the offense, adding Nick Swisher, Michael Bourn, and Mark Reynolds to what was a moribund attack in 2012.

As for the starting pitching, not so much.  He did sign veteran free agent Brett Myers to provide innings, and he traded for highly regarded Trevor Bauer to give help down the road, but overall he was hoping for bounce back seasons from Justin Masterson and Ubaldo Jimenez.

Now we understand this is spring training, and things may be totally different down the road, but so far we haven’t seen anything that makes us any more confident about the starting rotation when the season begins a week from Tuesday in Toronto.

Both pitchers have done okay, but they don’t look like the top of the rotation guys that Detroit (Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer), Chicago (Chris Sale, Jake Peavy), and even Kansas City (James Shields) have.

Masterson doesn’t have bad numbers in camp, allowing the same number of hits as innings pitched and striking out 19 in 17-2/3 innings.  But in the Tribe’s first televised game last Sunday, he gave up two home runs in a five run first.

That didn’t exactly inspire confidence that much has changed from 2012.

Jimenez is serving up batting practice in Goodyear, but he’s not exactly dominating either.  While his walks are down and he’s throwing strikes (just three walks in 18 innings), he’s allowing hits by the boatload, giving up 26 thus far this spring.

Neither pitcher has shown an ability to limit damage either after starting an inning poorly.  That may be due to not having stamina as of yet, but it is concerning because it was a problem for both last season.

Right now, it appears that Cleveland has a bunch of #3 and #4 starters, but no clear-cut ace at this point.

They do have more depth than at this time last season, with Zack McAllister showing signs he may be a solid major league starters, and it is likely that both Carlos Carrasco and Bauer will start the season in Columbus.

Myers has a long history of being a solid starter, but he’s an innings eater type, not a top of the rotation guy.  That’s not to say those guys aren’t important.  If Myers can go out there every fifth day and provide six or seven solid frames, that’s invaluable to a pitching staff.

McAllister had solid numbers in ’12, his first extended look at big league hitters.  He has the potential to move up in the pecking order this season, but still has to develop consistency on an outing to outing basis.

The Tribe’s fifth starter will likely be Scott Kazmir, who is intriguing because he is coming off a year where he pitched in an independent league.  Kazmir is a former big league all-star, and has regained the velocity he once had.  Still, it’s hard to see him as the ace of the staff this season.

There is no question the Indians will score more runs than 2012, they have replaced many of the holes their lineup had with established major league hitters.

However, whatever success the Tribe has in 2013 will depend on the success of the starting pitching.  Terry Francona needs someone to step up and be a guy the team feels can win every time they take the mound.

Right now, it doesn’t look like that guy will be on the team when Opening Day hits.  The biggest hopes may be Carrasco and Bauer, both of whom have ace “stuff”.

KM

 

Could Brantley Be Tribe’s Breakout Player?

There is no question that interest in the Cleveland Indians may be at its highest level since the beginning of the 2008 season, just a few months after the Tribe came within one game of making the World Series, but were beaten out by the Red Sox, managed by a guy named Terry Francona.

Now Francona is here, the ownership and front office went out and signed free agents Nick Swisher, Michael Bourn, and Brett Myers, and traded for a potential ace starting pitcher in Trevor Bauer.

Fans can’t wait for the season opener on April 2nd in Toronto.

The improvement on the Cleveland roster can be noted in that out of the players who started for the Tribe last season and left, only Shin-Soo Choo is considered a key component on his new team.  Jack Hannahan, Casey Kotchman, and Shelly Duncan are all considered either bench players or are on minor league contracts to start spring training.

The other big addition to this squad is speed and athleticism, something that was lacking in previous seasons, even going back to the Eric Wedge era.  It is refreshing to hear Francona talk about his team taking extra bases on hits to the outfield.  It doesn’t appear there will be much station to station baseball played by the Indians this season.

Francona compared his team to the Angels in the Mike Scoscia era, but when those teams scored a lot of runs, they depended on a lot of high batting averages.  The Indians don’t have many players who have a history of hitting close to .300.

To be sure, there are concerns for the new skipper and his staff.  There will be plenty of strikeouts in the starting lineup, meaning the offense could be very streaky at times.  When the guys who don’t make contact consistently are in a period of whiffing, scoring runs could be very tough indeed.

As much as Swisher and Bourn will be important to the Indians scoring more runs, the bigger pressure is probably on the young hitters on the team making big leaps, meaning Jason Kipnis, Lonnie Chisenhall, and Carlos Santana.  If all three of those players can start producing the way they did in the minor leagues, (remember Santana has the most service time of the three, just 2-1/2 seasons), the Indians could have a very potent offense.

However, the biggest jump to be made by any Indian this season could be by LF Michael Brantley.

It is easy to overlook Brantley because he has been here longer than any of the other three mentioned players, arriving in 2009 for the first time, and starting as a regular shortly after Santana in ’10.  But Brantley is still just 25 years old, turning 26 in May.  He won’t reach the magic 27-year-old season until 2014.

He has shown steady improvement over the last three years, with his on base percentage going from .296 in 2010 to .348 last year, and his slugging percentage rising from .327 three seasons ago to .402 in 2012.  If he makes the same improvement on his OPS this year as he did from 2011 to 2012, he will be around 800, which would make him a very good offensive player.

“Dr. Smooth” had 47 extra base hits in ’12, 37 of them doubles.  As a comparison, Asdrubal Cabrera had 52 extra base knocks in 2009, 42 of them doubles.  Two years later, Cabrera got stronger and some of those doubles became home runs, as ACab belted 25 dingers in 2011.

As Brantley gets stronger with age, the same effect could happen to him as well, and some of those doubles could wind up flying over the fence.  It wouldn’t be a surprise if the Tribe’s new leftfielder wound up with 15 to 20 bombs this summer.

You have to love young players who get better every season and still are in the 25 to 26-year-old range.  Michael Brantley is one of those players.  His most comparable player through age 25 is OF Terry Moore, who starred for the Cardinals in the 1940’s.

At age 27, Moore hit .295 with 17 home runs and an OPS of 849.  The following year, he hit .304 with 17 dingers and an OPS of 831.

If Brantley can follow suit, the Tribe has another very good bat in their lineup.

Based on the improvement he has shown since arriving in the big leagues, don’t bet against Brantley becoming that type of player.

KM

Tribe Starting Pitchers Full of ?????

Earlier this week, the Cleveland Indians signed free agent CF Michael Bourn and fans were thrilled by another top free agent signing.  It provided another hitter to help a team that finished 13th in the American League in runs scored.

However, that is only one part of the game because the Tribe finished last season dead last in the AL in ERA, and so far have added some relievers and one starting pitcher, Brett Myers, who spent last season pitching out of the bullpen, to improve the staff.

Is that enough?

This is not to criticize Myers, who has been an effective starter for many years in the big leagues, throwing over 180 innings six times in his career, every year but two that he has been in the rotation in the majors.  Not only is he durable, he’s also been effective , with a lifetime 4.29 ERA as a starting pitcher.

Right now, any hope for improvement besides Myers rests on potential and the bounce back of several pitchers.  That’s a cause for concern.

Justin Masterson may be the Opening Day starter, but he has been a regular starter with Cleveland for three years, of which one (2011–12-10 with a 3.21 ERA) was good, and the other two decidedly mediocre and inconsistent (17-28, 4.82 ERA).

Ubaldo Jimenez has been a huge mess since being acquired from Colorado at the ’11 trade deadline.

His mechanical issues are well documented, but his performance since becoming an Indian does nothing to inspire confidence that he will turn it around.  His record with the Tribe is 13-21 with a 5.32 ERA.  That should make him more of a candidate for the waiver wire than the cornerstone of a starting rotation.

There is no doubt he is the biggest key for Terry Francona’s team in 2013.

Carlos Carrasco provides hope because he showed some promise in 2011, his first full season in the big leagues.  But he is recovering from Tommy John surgery, so he cannot be counted on to lead the rotation of a winning team.

Zack McAllister made 22 starts for Cleveland a year ago, and did a decent enough job, going 6-8 with a 4.24 ERA.  The problem for him is the first stat listed, he’s only made 26 starts in his big league career.

Trevor Bauer is one of the game’s top prospects and dominated AAA last season, but he’s made just four major  league starting appearances.

The Tribe also brought in some experienced major league arms in Daisuke Matsuzaka and Scott Kazmir, both fine pitchers at some point in the last five or six seasons.  The former hasn’t had an ERA under 4.50 since 2008 when he enjoyed his best season in American baseball, going 18-3. 2.90.

That’s also the last good season for Kazmir, who pitched in an independent league last year.  He was 12-8 with a 3.49 that year, but hasn’t been below4.89 in any season since.

That’s an awful large amount of ifs and maybes for a team that did a lot to strengthen his offense this winter.

GM Chris Antonetti did bolster the bullpen by obtaining Matt Albers and Bryan Shaw in the Shin-Soo Choo trade, inking Blake Wood, another pitcher coming off Tommy John surgery, and getting Matt Capps, a former closer with the Pirates, Nationals, and Twins.

While many consider the bullpen the bulwark of the team, it was only the pitchers Manny Acta used when the team had the lead:  Joe Smith, Vinnie Pestano, and Chris Perez.  The rest of the relief corp struggled to keep close games close.  Too often, a starter left trailing 3-1, and soon it was 6-1.

Good teams play in the top half of their league in both runs scored and ERA.  Last year, the Tribe finished second last and last in those categories.

They’ve improved the hitting attack this off-season, but the pitching is still shaky to say the least.  If Carrasco comes back, McAllister picks up where he left off, and Bauer shows he is as good as his reputation, the Tribe can be formidable in 2013.

However, that’s an awful lot to have to go right.  And right now, it’s too many question marks.

KM

Bourn Signing OK, A Starter Would Have Been Better

The Cleveland Indians shocked everyone in the baseball world by signing free agent CF Michael Bourn to a four-year contract, worth an estimated $48 million.

We aren’t sure how much this helps the 2013 Tribe, at least offensively.

We are happy that the front office was able to spend money, and it shows a change in how the Dolan family is running the team, but with the state of the starting rotation, the dollars would be better spent there.

To be sure, the Indians may have baseball’s best defensive outfield with Bourn, flanked by Drew Stubbs in right and Michael Brantley in left.  And that should help a pitching staff that ranked last in the AL in ERA last season.

However, the American League is an offensive league, particularly in the regular season, and it says here that Bourn doesn’t help the offense all that much.  Why?  Because he’s not a very good offensive player.

Here’s hoping Tribe fans don’t see a speedy, centerfielder and think of former Indian great Kenny Lofton, because GM Chris Antonetti’s latest signing doesn’t compare favorably.

Bourn, a left-handed hitter has a lifetime OPS of just 704.  He’s a leadoff man by trade, yet his career on base percentage is just .339.

To be fair, in recent years he has been close to the .350 mark which is acceptable for a guy hitting at the top of the order.  However, by comparison to the best leadoff hitter the Indians have had in recent years, Lofton, Bourn isn’t close.  Lofton’s career on base percentage was a robust .372.

Also, the newest Indian has little pop.  His lifetime slugging percentage is .365 and last year it was still under .400 (.391).  Just for a comparison that you won’t like, Ezequiel Carrera’s slugging percentage for Cleveland last year?  Try .395.

When Bourn gets on base, he can run, averaging 51 stolen bases per season over 162 games.  He’s also an excellent defender, the winner of two Gold Gloves.

For $12 million per year, you should expect a little more with the stick.  And for a player who makes his living with his legs, you have to wonder how effective of a player Bourn will be in the last two years of the contract, when he will be 32 and 33 years old.

Many baseball website rated Bourn as one of the top free agents in the off-season, mostly based on his WAR (wins above replacement player).  However, that rating is inflated because of his defense at a premium defensive position.

Still, according to Baseball Reference.com, the most comparable hitters to Bourn at this point in his career are former Indian Dave Roberts, Albie Pearson and Roger Cedeno.  All solid major league players, but no immortals there.

Bourn will enable Terry Francona to perhaps move Nick Swisher to 1B and DH Mark Reynolds, or even isolate Stubbs weaknesses at the plate by limiting his at bats vs. right-handers.  He’s a better hitter than Stubbs, so if you consider that an upgrade then we have to agree.

Swisher was a solid signing because he’s a consistent player with OPS of between 743 and 870 throughout his major league career.  His lifetime figure is 828 and he’s usually around that figure.

If this signing enables Antonetti to deal an outfielder, preferably Stubbs, for a legitimate starting pitcher, then it’s a good move.

Bourn isn’t a bad player, it just says here he won’t be an impact signing for the Indians.  At those dollars, he should be.

KM