Despite Baseball’s System, Guardians Need To Spend More

The first defection from the Cleveland Guardians occurred early Monday morning when it was announced that Matthew Boyd signed a two-year contract with the Chicago Cubs.

Since there are still two and a half months until spring training starts, we aren’t going to start hammering the front office and ownership about not improving a roster that got to the American League Championship Series in 2024.

Look, we get the playing field isn’t level for all teams in Major League Baseball. Bigger markets get more local broadcast revenue, and unlike the National Football League, these incomes aren’t pooled together and distributed evenly to all 30 teams.

And we still don’t understand how the Dodgers can use deferred money in some huge contracts in order to avoid the total deal counting towards the Competitive Balance tax.

It’s also true that every ownership of an MLB team is unbelievably rich and can probably afford to pay players more than they do. According to Baseballreference.com, the Guardians’ payroll is $20 million less than Milwaukee, $28 million less than Kansas City, and $44 million under what Tampa Bay pays.

No doubt, the Dolan family can spend more than they have.

Remember, they spent a significant amount of money on a campaign to get someone in the family in the US Senate. So, it’s not as though they will be visiting soup kitchens during the holidays.

While there are defenders of the Guardians’ ownership throughout the fandom, the reason for the critics is the lack of effort to go “all in” to win a title when the opportunity is there.

Yes, they did it in 2017 after the painful World Series loss to the Cubs, signing free agent Edwin Encarnacion, but that’s been the exception rather than the rule. After the surprising run to the playoffs in 2022 with the youngest team in baseball, they did sign Josh Bell as a free agent, but that wasn’t a huge splash.

There is no question the current Guardians need starting pitching and that’s why the news about Boyd going elsewhere was disappointing. Fans have to be wondering if Shane Bieber, who won’t be available until the middle of the season, is the next to go. We are guessing he will be in demand even though he won’t be ready on Opening Day 2025.

But going into next season with a rotation of Tanner Bibee, Gavin Williams, Ben Lively, and Triston McKenzie doesn’t scream contender. Especially when you can make a very good case the latter three are big question marks.

The organization is either going to have to spend some money or make some good old fashioned baseball trades in order to have a solid rotation heading into the season.

Nobody is saying the Guardians should be in the market for Juan Soto or even Blake Snell for that matter. They don’t have the same revenue stream (again, local broadcast revenue) as Los Angeles or New York.

However, the fans have showed up. The Guardians’ teams of the last three years are very fun groups and also likeable. Now, the ownership needs to step up and thank those fans.

There is still time, but let’s hope it’s not another off-season where nothing is done.

Win Vs. KC May Have Turned It All Around For Guardians

It is very difficult to come from way behind in sports. How many times have you seen a team come from say, 20 points down in the second half of a game, trimming the lead to say, three or four points, only to fall back and wind up losing by double digits.

The same can be true chasing a team in the standings. In the past week, we have kind of seen just that with the Cleveland Guardians and Kansas City Royals.

On June 25th, the Guardians were in first place in the AL Central with a 51-26 record, leading Minnesota by nine games and the Royals by 10, as KC sat with a 43-38 mark.

You can see by the records that the teams had played about half of their season’s schedule.

But last week, the Royals finally tracked the Guardians down, winning the first three games of a four-game series in Cleveland. The two teams were tied in the standings, but because Kansas City won the season series, it meant technically, KC was in first place.

In the fourth game of the set, the Guards looked like a weary squad and trailed after six innings, 5-2. It seemed to be the equivalent of the 1978 Boston Massacre, when the Red Sox, who had a double digit lead earlier in the season, were famously swept at home by the Yankees.

Eventually, the two teams had to play a 163rd game to decide the American League East.

But we digress. In the bottom of the 7th, Cleveland rallied for four runs to take a 6-5 lead, added another run in the 8th, and when Emmanuel Clase closed out the Guardians’ victory, the series ended with a one game lead for Steven Vogt’s group.

Since then, Kansas City has lost an additional six consecutive contests, while Cleveland has won five out of six and taken a 4.5 game advantage over the Twins and 5.5 over the Royals.

Yes, the Royals lost Vinnie Pasquantino, their second or third best hitter, having driven in 97 runs in 2024, and that has really hurt their offense. They haven’t scored more than three runs since he went down.

That seventh inning at Progressive Field seems to have shifted the momentum for now in the division title race. Cleveland didn’t let Kansas City pass them, and the Royals seem to have expended a lot of energy in tracking the Guardians down.

Meanwhile, the Guardians seem to have their starting rotation pitching as well as it has all season long, although we all know that could change at the drop of a hat. Although we were skeptical of the acquisitions of Matthew Boyd and Alex Cobb by the front office, they seem to have stabilized the starting staff.

Boyd has a 2.38 ERA over five starts, while Cobb, who had a perfect game through six innings on Sunday, has a 2.76 ERA.

Overall, the rotation is giving Vogt at six innings in four straight starts, allowing the highly taxed bullpen to get some valuable rest.

Last week, when the Guards were struggling, we said we hoped for a big event, a big home run, a walk-off win, to get this team going in the right direction again.

That seventh inning in the last game of the Royals series in Cleveland may have been that shot in the arm.

Offense Has Replaced Rotation As Guardians’ Chief Issue

All season long, we have worried about the starting pitching of the Cleveland Guardians. Is the rotation good enough? Is it providing enough innings to protect the bullpen? Will they be able to overcome the injury to Shane Bieber and the ineffectiveness of Logan Allen and Triston McKenzie?

At this point, the rotation is what it is, a group of pitchers who hopefully can give the team an effective six innings of work and turn it over to a dominant bullpen.

Since the All-Star break, the Guardians have turned into team streak, winning five in a row, losing seven straight, followed by another five-game winning streak, and now a three-game losing skein.

Unless Matthew Boyd and Alex Cobb start pitching like Sam McDowell and Corey Kluber, this is how the Guardians’ starting pitching will be going forward. And now, Cobb is going to miss time with a broken fingernail.

However, the offense is sputtering. In April, the Guardians were a surprise with the bats, averaging 5.24 runs per game. They were still going strong in May, scoring 5.04 runs. In June, that figure dropped to 4.56 and in July, it dipped further to 3.36.

This month, that figure has improved slightly to 4.23 runs per contest, but overall, since the All-Star break, they have scored 3.76 runs/game. The team batting average is .222 (compared to .243 prior) the on base percentage is .279 (.316 before), and the slugging percentage has dropped from .405 to .368.

The hitting has become too reliant on the home run, mostly because the batting average is subpar, and no one seems to be drawing walks either. Pitchers seemed to have learned the best way to attack the Cleveland lineup is to throw a lot of changeups, and there hasn’t seemed to be adjustments.

It seems you can count the number of hits going to the opposite field on one hand over the last week. For us, it seems like it is just at bat after at bat trying to pull pitches on the outside half on the plate, resulting in weak grounders to second base and/or shortstop.

Individually, the numbers are equally ugly. The only two players who have OPS over 750 are Jose Ramirez and Jhonkensy Noel, and the latter is still striking out in roughly one-third of his at bats.

Only Josh Naylor has an OPS above 700 at 746. Every other single Guardians’ player is below 700, and the league average is 704.

Coincidentally, that trio are also the only Cleveland players with on base percentages over .300. Cleveland ranks in the bottom five in batting average, walks, and OPS since the break, and is 22nd out of 30 teams in runs scored.

They’ve been shut out four times in that span.

Simply put, you have to score runs in the regular season, and the Guardians have scored two or fewer runs in 11 of the 29 games played since the All-Star Game. Amazingly, they’ve won three of those contests.

They put up three runs in an additional five games, meaning in over half the games played after the break, they have put up three runs or less. And again, that’s a tough way to win baseball games.

Earlier, when they were scoring more runs, the team seemed to work counts and draw more walks. This is reflected in the monthly OBP as a team, which are as follows in chronological order: .321, .312, .322, .285, .286.

Perhaps playing guys who will take a walk would help. We’ve already advocated to bring back Angel Martinez, whose .306 OBP (12 walks) would rank 5th on the team if he were called back up.

This is not a team that can sit back and wait for the home run. They have to get guys on base and move them. That’s been lacking for the past six weeks or so, and if they can’t start scoring runs, it will be tough to hold off Minnesota and Kansas City.

Guards Are Winning. Doesn’t Mean There Aren’t Worries.

The Cleveland Guardians have one of the best records in baseball. It depends on the day, but there are times they are the game’s winningest team, but they are in the conversation with the New York Yankees, Baltimore Orioles, Philadelphia Phillies, and Los Angeles Dodgers.

On the other hand, they are just two games ahead of Minnesota and four ahead of Kansas City in the AL Central, and the schedule is a gauntlet through the end of the year. On this trip alone they play the NL Central leaders in Milwaukee and the Yanks.

Right after Labor Day, they make their last extended road trip of the season, with visits to Kansas City and Los Angeles to take on the Dodgers.

The point is, even with all the success they have achieved this season, there is some worry as to what happens over the next six weeks.

We have been concerned about the starting pitching all season long, and although Matthew Boyd and Alex Cobb both pitched well in their last start, it’s still a worry, mostly because they simply don’t pitch enough innings.

Neither of the veterans was able to finish six innings, which isn’t a rarity for the rotation. The last time a Guardians’ starter went six innings was Gavin Williams last Saturday against the Twins, the game that broke the seven-game losing streak.

Since the All-Star break, a period of 27 games (1/6th of a season), Cleveland pitchers have completed six innings just three times. The last game a Guards’ starter went seven? The last game we could find was May 10th, when Carlos Carrasco went that long vs. the White Sox.

We know starters aren’t expected to go nine innings anymore, but pitching six shouldn’t be an anomaly. Yes, the pitching staff ranks 2nd in the AL in ERA, but the reason for that is the bullpen, and right now, Steven Vogt is down to three guys are haven’t started to leak oil–Cade Smith, Hunter Gaddis, and of course, Emmanuel Clase.

Even getting six innings consistently out of a starter is a dream right now.

The other reason for concern is the offense. While pitching wins in the playoffs, you have to score runs in the regular season, and of the teams competing for the league’s best record and in the Central Division, the Guards have scored the least amount of runs.

Right now, the Guardians have the opposite of a top to bottom lineup. Among players with over 150 plate appearances, they have four hitters with above average OPS: Jose Ramirez, Josh Naylor, Steven Kwan, and David Fry.

Two of those hitters, Kwan and Fry, have been slumping since the Midsummer Classic.

Kwan had a .352 batting average and 920 OPS in the first half and had us dreaming of the first Cleveland batting champ since Bobby Avila in 1954. So far in the second half, he’s hitting .224 (.291 on base vs. .407 prior) and 646 OPS.

He seems to be hitting a lot of fly balls now, which could mean he is selling out for power? But a return to the hitter we saw before the All-Star game could be dynamic for the Guards’ offense.

Fry made the American League squad on the basis of an incredible April and May, in which he hit .352 with 8 HR and 27 RBI. Since June 1st, he’s batted .216 with 4 dingers and 15 ribbies. He still is killing lefties, with .301 average and 1047 OPS against southpaws.

He has a 666 OPS vs. RHP but continues to bat 5th when he plays.

The problem for Vogt and the organization is they don’t seem to have a lot of alternatives.

Jhonkensy Noel has provided pop, this week hitting three homers, but in the last three games, he’s 0 for 8 with six whiffs. Lane Thomas has been ineffective since coming over from Washington going 6 for 50 with 21 strikeouts.

Daniel Schneemann in the last 28 days: .156 BA and 220/200/420 splits. Will Brennan has hit since coming back from AAA, but he is what he is, basically a singles hitter that doesn’t walk (301 OBP, 391 slugging).

Can the offense find help? Can they score enough down the stretch, or will it continue to be a huge load on the bullpen?

One of the best records in baseball? Yes. That doesn’t mean there aren’t concerns.

Guardians Struggles Are On Both Pitching And Offense

The Cleveland Guardians are in a mid-season malaise. Since June 25th, a period of 40 games, Steven Vogt’s crew has gone 17-23. And note that many games is a quarter of the season, so not really a small sample size.

Most teams go through a stretch like this during a season, so it is not a sign that Cleveland isn’t a good team, after all they still have the third best record in the American League, just a game behind the Orioles.

But the Minnesota Twins and Kansas City Royals have gotten hot, trimming what was a nine game lead on that date (June 25th) to 2-1/2 games. Based on the recent past, it would have been crazy to think the Central Division would have three of the five best records in the AL, but here we are.

The Guards put together a five-game winning streak a little over a week ago, beating Philadelphia to end that series, taking two from the Tigers, and then winning the first two vs. Baltimore (yes, the team with the best record). Since then, they’ve lost seven of their last eight.

When your offense and pitching are both failing, you end up with a long losing streak.

Right now, the Guardians are having issues scoring runs. In the last four losses, they haven’t put up more than three runs a game. And it’s tough to win that way.

But the starting pitching woes, which isn’t a recent problem, has reared its ugly head once again. In the seven-game streak, the most innings pitched by a Cleveland starter was the 5.2 hurled by rookie Joey Cantillo.

Here are the innings pitched by starters over these seven games: 4, 4, 5, 5, 4.1, 5.2, 4.2. And for all the people out there who think Vogt is giving away games, you cannot have Cade Smith, Hunter Gaddis, Emmanuel Clase, and the other primary bullpen pitchers covering five innings every game.

Another annoying habit is the lack of shutdown innings from the pitching staff. Every team the Guardians scrape up some offense and get a lead, the pitchers give it right back, and that goes for starters and relievers. Even Smith has done it.

At the trade deadline, although there weren’t many decent starters moved, we felt it was curious to have the Guards’ brass cast their lot with two pitchers who haven’t thrown a big-league inning this year in Alex Cobb and Matthew Boyd.

It’s now the 11th of August, and those two moves have netted the Guardians the 4.2 innings thrown by Cobb Friday night.

Meanwhile, Paul Blackburn, who the Mets traded for from Oakland at the deadline has given them two starts of six innings.

Perhaps Cobb and Boyd are mainstays during the last six weeks of the season for Cleveland, but so far, they haven’t cured the biggest problem the Guardians have had in 2024.

And when your rotation is shorthanded, and the reliable hurlers don’t succeed, you have a long losing streak. Cleveland’s rotation was built around Tanner Bibee, Gavin Williams, and Ben Lively. Bibee missed a start with shoulder inflammation, and Williams and Lively didn’t pitch well.

What Cleveland needs, despite the hitting issues, is a starting pitcher who will go out and put up zeros. Williams did that for the most part last night. Get a well-pitched game, a game where the pitching staff puts up a “0” after the Guardians score.

It isn’t time to panic, but it is time to turn things around. It’s a big advantage to have one of the two best division winning records once the season ends.

Another Injury Causes Vogt, Willis To Use A Tito Model

The Cleveland Guardians head into a huge four-game series this weekend at Minnesota with the starting rotation still very much in flux. Steven Vogt and his staff have done a masterful job working around this issue, and it will be interesting to see how he handles this upcoming series.

The latest starter to miss a start is Tanner Bibee, who didn’t pitch yesterday against Arizona, as Logan Allen was recalled taking his turn. The club is still hopeful Bibee will not have to be placed on the injured list.

Newcomer Alex Cobb pitched for Columbus on Saturday and should make his debut this week vs. the Twins, so hopefully that’s a big help. We know some are optimistic about Matthew Boyd too, but you have to remember he has a 4.94 lifetime ERA.

Perhaps the best news for the Guards this weekend was Triston McKenzie’s outing at AAA Saturday night when he pitched six shutout innings fanning 11. Having McKenzie find his command will also be a huge factor down the stretch.

Ben Lively continues to be consistent, beating Philadelphia and Baltimore in his last two starts, and for the most part, Vogt and Carl Willis are probably very confident he will give them five or six solid innings and Cleveland will be in the game when he leaves the game.

Because of these issues with the starting rotation, Vogt and Willis seem to have taken something from the way Terry Francona handled a similar problem during the 2016 playoffs. That is, if you don’t have a lot of confidence in your starter, see if you can get them two times through the batting order and then go to the bullpen.

It is fairly obvious to everyone that the bullpen is the strength of this team. Fox analyst John Smoltz pointed out in Saturday night’s broadcast that when you are playing Cleveland right now, there is pressure to have a lead after five innings. That’s how good the relief corps is.

It looks like the role of Andrew Miller is being played right now by rookie Cade Smith, who has struck out 75 hitters in 54 innings and has a 2.17 ERA. If the starter gets Vogt into the fourth inning, when Smith is available, he comes in and gets the Guardians through the fifth or sixth, depending on when he is brought in.

And Vogt is trying to save his primary relievers right now, so if they are trailing after five, fans should get used to seeing pitchers like Pedro Avila, who has done a real solid job in this role, Xzavion Curry, Eli Morgan, and even Connor Gillispie, who got called up prior to Sunday’s game and pitched three innings in his MLB debut.

That is totally a sound strategy. Do everything you can to win games when we have the lead. If you are trailing and Avila (or another long reliever) does a great job and shuts the opposition out, it gives the offense a chance to get a lead, but these guys can’t pitch every night.

People can’t be mad that the bullpen is overused and then be angry when Vogt pitches Curry when the Guards are losing 4-1 in the 7th inning. The manager is doing his best to protect his pitchers while still trying to win games in a post-season race.

And right now, he is threading a needle. Until Bibee’s shoulder is healthy, Cobb can make effective starts, and McKenzie is back to his normal pitching, the coaching staff is trying to squeeze out wins anyway they can.

They should get enormous credit for that.

Guardians’ Deadline Moves: OK, But Also A Bit Disappointing

The baseball trading deadline came and went and the Cleveland Guardians, who have the best record in the American League weren’t satisfied with their current roster and made a couple of moves for the last two months of the season.

They added OF Lane Thomas from the Washington Nationals for a trio of prospects, the most recognizable being Jose Tena, who has appeared in the big leagues, but the highest ranked player was Alex Clemmey, who was a second round pick a year ago.

Recently, we’ve discussed how rightfield has been an issue for the Guardians, and the acquisition of Thomas is an upgrade at the spot. First, he’s been very good vs. left-handed pitching in his career, a lifetime 888 OPS against them.

Last year, he belted 28 homers for Washington and so far, this season had a 738 OPS and had 28 stolen bases. Over the last two months, his OPS was over 800. He didn’t have a great strikeout to walk ratio a year ago (176:36) but has improved in both areas in 2024, dropping his K rate from 25.8% to 21.1% and raising his walk rate from 5.3% to 9.4%.

Yes, rightfield was a need, but the biggest area the Guardians needed to improve was the starting pitching and they basically went with two lottery tickets.

We know the only starting pitchers of consequence traded at the deadline were Jack Flaherty, who the Tigers weren’t likely going to deal to a division foe, Yusei Kikuchi, and Paul Blackburn, who has made one start since May 10th.

Obviously, the hope is Matthew Boyd, who signed a few weeks ago coming off elbow surgery, and Alex Cobb, who was picked up from the Giants at the deadline. Cobb had hip surgery and shoulder issues and has made six rehab starts this year, pitching a total of 18.1 innings.

Getting Cobb is a spring training move, low risk, high reward. In the middle of a pennant race? It’s meh.

Cobb is 36 years old and did make the All-Star team a year ago with San Francisco, pitching 151 innings with a 3.87 ERA. Again, neither Boyd nor Cobb have thrown a pitch at the major league level this season.

And that’s what the front office is banking on to bolster a shaky rotation for the last two months of the regular season and hopefully, a playoff run.

We understand the frustration. Yes, the Guardians have a solid farm system, recently restocked with the first overall pick in the recent amateur draft, Travis Bazzana. But the success rate of prospects is still 50/50 at best.

Look at George Valera, who was a top 100 prospect by pretty much every ranking service in 2022 and 2023. He’s now played 173 games at the AAA level and his OPS is 748. Had the Guardians moved him after ’22, they likely could have got a haul.

Now? He’s another failed prospect.

We understand the importance of prospects, especially for a franchise that cannot sustain a $200 million payroll, but there are two things at play here.

First, this group of Guardians has the best record in the AL and one of top records in the game. If there is ever a year to go out of the organization’s comfort zone and move a highly rated prospect, it’s this season.

Second is 1948. It’s been 76 seasons since the franchise has won a World Series. And the fans are coming out. They love this team.

Hopefully, when the front office scratches off the lottery tickets of Boyd and Cobb, they come up winners. Because if the rotation continues to struggle and causes the bullpen’s collapse, they should have to answer why they didn’t do more in the last week.