Can Reyes Change? A Big Question For Guardians’ Offense.

When the Cleveland front office acquired Franmil Reyes during the 2019, no doubt they loved his raw power. He belted 37 home runs that season between his time here and in San Diego, hitting 10 long balls in 51 games with the Indians.

Yes, Reyes was prone to strikeouts, the same as most young power hitters. He fanned 156 times against 46 walks, a 28.5% whiff rate with an 8.6% walk rate.

He was just 23 years old at the time, and we are sure the organization felt it could work with him to improve the contact and they might have a middle of the batting order force.

The COVID shortened year of 2020 seemed to bear that out, as his walk rate increased to 10% and his batting average jumped to .275 with an on base percentage of .344. He was previously getting on base about 31% of the time.

Keep in mind, that was a 60 game season, and the big man had just 241 plate appearances.

Last season, Reyes pulled an oblique muscle early in the season, but his strikeout rate increased to 32% and the walk rate dropped back a bit to 9.2%. It is concerning in that you would like to see both ratios decreasing, but it still wasn’t a cause for concern.

While it is still early in 2022, Reyes’ strikeout numbers are getting near Joey Gallo and Mark Reynolds’ territory.

His strikeout percentage has jumped to 41.1% and while that is troubling enough, the walk rate has also dipped to 5.7%. Reyes had an 0 for 26 slump earlier this season in which he was basically swinging at everything and obviously has an affect on these numbers.

He has hit better since the calendar turned to May, going 14 for 42 (.333) and an 833 OPS, but he still has fanned 16 times, walking just four times.

He got out of the slump and into a nice hot streak but hitting the ball where it was pitched and used the entire field, usually a panacea for ending a dry spell at the plate. It wouldn’t hurt to stay with that approach going forward.

Reyes is a big man, and strong enough to hit homers the opposite way without a lot of difficulty, if he can make contact.

And if he can get back to where he was in the shortened 2020 season, he would be a great hitter to bat behind Jose Ramirez, someone who might make you think twice about pitching around the Guardians’ #3 hitter.

If he can’t, he’s a lower third of the order hitter, and more than likely doesn’t have a long future in Cleveland, particularly because the organization doesn’t have a lot of confidence using him defensively.

He’d be a threat in the 7-8-9 hole because if he connects, there’s a chance the ball will sail over the fence. But he can’t be counted on to hit in the middle of the order.

Terry Francona can’t afford to protect his best hitter with a guy who opposing pitchers know they can strikeout if they make their pitch.

The bigger question is can Reyes change his approach as a hitter. The two week stretch where he was red hot say he can, and we will see in the next couple of weeks whether or not he can sustain it.

Otherwise, Reyes might wind up on the list of all or nothing power guys. The Cleveland front office thought it was getting something better than that.

Can Tito Afford To Be Patient In A Short Season?

One of the greatest attributes Terry Francona has as a manager is his patience. Sometimes, we feel that patience can become stubbornness, and although it irritates the fan in us at times, it works out more often than not.

With Major League Baseball discussing an 81 (or so) game schedule for the 2020 season, the question is, how will Francona’s fabled patience play out with a shortened slate?

In each of the seasons that Francona has been the Tribe’s skipper, a player has received an extreme benefit of the doubt. In a half-season, it would seem Tito would have to have a shorter hook.

Going back to 2013, Francona’s first year with the Tribe, it was Mark Reynolds. The slugger and frequent whiffer got off to a great start for the Indians, hitting .301 with 8 HR and a 1.019 OPS in April.

May wasn’t too bad, with Reynolds adding five more dingers, but he batted just .218 and the OPS went down to 696.

In June, Cleveland played 28 games. Reynolds started 25 of them and batted .187 with a 541 OPS, and then out of 25 games in July, the slugger started 15 and hit .098 with a 331 OPS.

From May 1st through the end of July, Reynolds batted .181 with 7 HR, 25 RBI, and somehow stayed in the lineup. That’s three months of terrible production.

In 2014, Nick Swisher received 401 plate appearances contributing just 8 homers and 42 RBI (608 OPS). Swisher was a veteran who had a solid year with the Tribe in ’13 and was battling injuries, but maybe Jesus Aguilar, who posted a 905 OPS in AAA Columbus, could’ve received a shot at seeing what he could contribute.

And not to pick on Swisher, but that club had two other players (Jason Kipnis and Michael Bourn) who played a lot but had OPS under 700.

Bourn received the benefit of the doubt the following year until he (along with Swisher) was dealt to Atlanta in early August. The centerfielder hit just .249 without a home run, and even worse, stole only 13 bases in 18 attempts.

To be fair to Francona, he didn’t really have many alternatives, although Abraham Almonte did provide a spark (776 OPS) when given an opportunity.

In 2016, it was Juan Uribe (591 OPS in 238 at bats) before Jose Ramirez took over the hot corner. Uribe was released in early August.

You see the pattern. Over a 162 game season, you are more likely to overcome a bad month or two at a position, but will the same be true in a short season?

Certainly, the proven players will and should get the benefit of the doubt. No skipper in his right mind is going to bench Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez, and Carlos Santana because they had a bad week.

But the Tribe is transitioning at a lot of positions. Let’s say Oscar Mercado gets off to a slow start over the first three weeks, can Francona afford to keep him in there if the ballclub is struggling to score runs?

Tito’s instinct might be to let the young guy work things out, and many times, it works out the right way in the long run. However, it doesn’t appear there will be a long run in 2020.

It’s also a moot point if the Indians are winning. You can afford to have some struggling players figure it out while they are playing if the team is successful. But if the Indians are scuffling, the pressure will be there to make changes before the season is lost.

No matter what, it will be a period of adjustment for every manager in the bigs, not just Terry Francona. Who adjusts best will have a leg up on the competition in what figures to be a weird baseball season.

Does Making Contact Lead To Winning?

In the new age of baseball, striking out does not have the negative connotation it once had.

For years, the single season record for striking out in a season was 189 by Bobby Bonds in 1970. That mark stood for 34 years, until Adam Dunn whiffed 195 times in 2004.

Dunn’s record stood for three seasons, when Philadelphia’s Ryan Howard fanned 199 times in 2007, and the next year Mark Reynolds went down swinging in 204 of his at bats.

The following year, 2009, Reynolds struck out 223 times which is the current record, although the White Sox’ Yoan Moncada could threaten that mark this season, currently sitting at 181 punch outs.

Last week, when the Indians took on the Red Sox, it was noted on one of the broadcasts that the Tribe strikes out less than anyone in the American League, and Boston ranks 4th in that category.

So, does making contact lead to winning baseball and scoring more runs?

In the AL, of the six teams contending for the five playoff spots available, the top four in making contact are among those squads. In order they are Cleveland (950 strikeouts), Houston (989), Seattle (997), and Boston (1013).

The other two teams, New York ranks 4th from the bottom and Oakland is 6th worst in making contact.

Boston (1st), Cleveland (3rd), and Houston (4th) are among the leaders in the AL in scoring runs. Seattle is 11th.

The Yankees and A’s lead the league in home runs, which coincides with an all or nothing approach, although the Indians are 3rd, and the Red Sox and Astros are in the top half of the Junior Circuit.

In the National League, Pittsburgh is best at making contact, but they are followed by Atlanta (leading the East), Washington (a game under .500), Chicago (leading the Central) and St. Louis (leading the Wild Card).

Playoff contenders Philadelphia, Milwaukee, Arizona, and Los Angeles are among the teams who strikeout the most, which is something to watch down the stretch.

Of the teams avoiding the “K”, the Cubs, Braves, Nationals, and Cardinals are in the top six in the NL in runs scored.

The Dodgers and Brewers lead the NL in homers, and the Phillies are 6th with their contact is secondary approach, but St. Louis is 3rd and Washington is 5th in long balls.

If you watch the Dodgers at all, you notice right away that a number of their players swing for the downs a lot.

Perhaps if a team that is more contact oriented succeeds in the playoffs again, we will start to see teams look for hitters that put the ball in play.

The Indians’ drafted players with an emphasis on a contact approach in last June’s draft. They used Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez, two guys who developed their power a few years after beginning their professional careers, as examples.

They seem to be searching for players who have a natural ability to make contact, and then teach them how to drive the ball. Apparently, they believe it is easier to do that than teach a guy with a high strikeout rate to make contact.

It will be interesting to watch the fates of the clubs like the Yankees, A’s, Dodgers, Brewers, and Phillies as baseball heads into the last month of the season.

If they fail in the post-season, will it signal a shift back to hitters who put the ball in play over time? It might be a good sign for the sport going forward.

In Sports, Consistency is a Talent Worth Having

Last week, we were involved in a debate on Twitter about the merits of Indians’ utility man Zach Walters, as we compared him (as we have many times before) to former Tribesman Russell Branyan.

We were quizzed that it sounded like that comparison was a bad thing, which we meant it to be. Our opinion is that wild, streaky hitters like Branyan and Walters aren’t effective major league players.

Our contention is that consistency is a tool just like hitting with power, speed, and defensive ability.

Walters came to the Tribe at the trade deadline from the Nationals for Asdrubal Cabrera, and did whack some home runs immediately after being called up, hitting six dingers in his first 48 at bats. The downside is he only had four other hits, leading to a .208 batting average and mixing in just three walks.

A true all or nothing hitter.

From August 27th to the last game of the season, when Walters went 2 for 4 with a home run, the switch-hitter went 3 for 36 with 16 punch outs and just two walks. Do you think Terry Francona was anxious to put him in the lineup?

To be fair to Walters, it is a relatively small sample size and he is just 25 years old and could (and really needs to) change his approach at the plate.

Let’s go back to 2013 for a larger sample, using former Indian Mark Reynolds as the example.

Reynolds famously started on fire in April, hitting .301 with 8 HR and 22 RBI helping get the Tribe off to a good start.

However, in May, June, and July combined, Reynolds went 44 for 243, a .181 batting average, with 7 homers and 25 RBI. Francona started easing him out of the lineup and when it was all said and done, the slugger wanted out and the Tribe was happy to oblige.

We understand that no one is perfectly consistent. A .300 hitter doesn’t hit for that average every month, and neither does a .250 hitter. However, from a manager or coaches’ standpoint, those guys are gold because for the most part, you know what you will get.

That’s why guys like Branyan and perhaps Walters get placed into reserve roles. In the NBA, players with up and down performances are bench guys. If they come in and are hot, the coach can ride them. If they aren’t, they can be taken out and not be a part of the game going forward.

In Walters’ case, he is still young and many times it takes players without a lot of experience time to develop a consistent level. When Manny Ramirez and Jim Thome first came to the Indians, they had severe ups and downs too, and Mike Hargrove had to manage that. Heck, Thome was basically a platoon player in 1994 and 1995.

That’s something the front office has to keep an eye on with Jason Kipnis. Kipnis made his season in ’13 with a tremendous June in which he hit close to .400 and he had a solid September as well. The rest of the season? He was below .250. Just something to watch in 2015.

Remember how frustrated fans got with Lonnie Chisenhall last season?

That’s why players like Michael Brantley and Yan Gomes are even more valuable than you think. They were consistent all year-long and have been for a while.

Gomes strikes out a lot, but more often than not, the guys who strike out at a high rate are players more prone to peaks and valleys.

Consistency equals dependability. And that’s part of a player’s profile, one that shouldn’t be overlooked.