Lindor and Tribe In A Unique Situation

Now that the hot stove league has started, you can’t watch or listen to shows about baseball without people talking about the Cleveland Indians trading all star shortstop Francisco Lindor.

We, of course, have stated many times that we would not be in favor of dealing the Indians’ face of the franchise, preferring to sign one of the best players in the game to a long term contract.

We were wondering how many other star players were traded at age 25 while being one of the best players in the game?

We did come up with a few, although most aren’t as good as the Indians shortstop, and we wanted to see what kind of return the player brought back. Mostly because most fans think the Indians would get three future all-stars in return.

The first case is Christian Yelich, who was dealt by Miami in 2017 after his year 25 season. Yelich hit .282 with an 807 OPS, and was signed through 2021 by the Marlins, so he differs from Lindor in that he wasn’t coming up on free agency.

The top prospect Miami received was Lewis Brinson, who was Baseball America’s 16th ranked prospect at the time. To date, Brinson has been a massive dud, with a career 531 OPS in around 700 at bats.

The best player Miami received right now has been pitcher Jordan Yamamoto, who was never a top 100 prospect. He was 4-5 with a 4.45 ERA in 15 starts last year.

Not a big return for a player who was MVP in the National League in 2018 and finished second last season.

Manny Machado was traded at age 25, but he was moved at the trade deadline before his winter of free agency, so it’s not a good comparison. His value was lowered because the team dealing for him was getting him for a half season.

The only player moved from the Dodgers to Baltimore in the deal that has reached the major leagues yet is Breyic Valera (47 at bats with Toronto). Valera has gone from Baltimore to San Francisco to New York to Toronto.

Andrelton Simmons was traded following his age 25 season after hitting .265 (660 OPS). He isn’t anywhere near the offensive player Lindor is, but in the deal sending him from Atlanta to Los Angeles (AL), the best player the Braves received thus far has been Sean Newcomb (22-21, 3.87 ERA), who pitched out of the bullpen for the NL East champs this season.

The reason it is very difficult to find comps to this situation is most teams aren’t looking to trade 25 year old superstars with two years left on their contract, they are looking to sign them long term.

It is a different situation if Lindor and his agent have told the front office they won’t sign with the Indians under any circumstances, but we don’t believe that is the case.

We wanted to point out, however, in reality, no team is going to empty out their farm system for Lindor, and if they do, there’s no guarantee that the top prospects will turn out to be very good to great major league players.

Recently, you had the Bryce Harper (went to free agency) and Machado situations. Yes, Washington won the World Series this season, but it wasn’t due to what they received for Harper.

And the Orioles appear to have received 20 cents on the dollar for Machado.

The Red Sox are said to be considering a Mookie Betts deal, but part of that is the luxury tax threshold and the other big contracts Boston has. If J.D. Martinez had opted out of his deal for 2020, Boston may not be looking to move Betts.

Yes, Lindor will become one of the highest paid players in the game. So be it. He’s one of the best players in the game.

It may be a long time before another team is in this situation again.

Tribe Can And Should Sign Lindor

The recent signings of Manny Machado, Nolan Arenado, and Bryce Harper have brought the fate of Francisco Lindor into the minds of many Cleveland Indians fans.

What are the chances the Tribe ownership will sign the shortstop to a long term deal before he becomes a free agent in 2021?

Most believe there is no chance because the Indians are a small to mid market, and they “couldn’t possibly” dedicate that large of a percentage of the big league payroll to one player.

We consider those people to be supporters of the “Dolan Cap”.

First of all, there is no salary cap in baseball, meaning the Indians’ ownership could spend whatever they want. And remember, there will be a financial windfall from the new network television deal with Fox starting in 2022, the year after Lindor’s free agency.

Second, notice the first two signings at the beginning of this piece.

Currently, Forbes Magazine ranks the Padres, who signed Machado, as the 17th most valuable franchise in the sport. The Rockies, who kept their superstar in Arenado long term (a 7 year deal) is 23rd, one spot ahead of…the Cleveland Indians.

So, if these two mid to small market teams can sign great players, the Indians can too.

Arenado is particularly comparable to Lindor, in that both are better than Machado and Harper, who signed with the Phillies.

The Rockies third baseman ranked 3rd in MLB Network’s listing of the 100 best players in the game right now, while Lindor was 4th. For the record, Machado was 14th and Harper 15th.

Arenado is 27 years old, meaning Colorado signed him through his 34th birthday. Lindor is 25 years, so a similar length deal (7 or 8 years) would keep him in a Cleveland uniform through age 33, at which time he should still be a productive player if he stays healthy.

Which brings us to another argument we hear. This is NOT the same situation as Albert Pujols or Miguel Cabrera. Pujols was 32 when he signed his 10 year contract with the Angels. The team knew they would be paying big money for declining years.

Likewise, the Tigers inked Cabrera to an eight year deal when he was 32 years old. They’ve seen one very good year thus far, and two injury plagued campaigns.

If the Tribe would sign their shortstop after this season to a seven or eight year deal, they’d be getting his prime years (27-29) and he would be 33 or 34 years old at the end. While he most likely won’t be the Lindor we’ve seen to date at those ages, we would go out on a limb and say he would still be a very productive player.

We have advocated this for a long time, not only can the Indians keep Lindor long term, they should keep him long term. He is arguably the greatest position player in the history of the franchise, which of course, goes back to 1901.

The last time the Indians has a player this good at that age was Manny Ramirez, who departed after his age 28 season. The Dolans did make a big time offer to the right-handed slugger, only to be aced out by the Red Sox in the end.

Here are the seasons Ramirez put up in his first five years in Boston:

2001: 1014 OPS, 41 HR, 125 RBI, .306 batting average
2002: 1097 OPS, 33 HR, 107 RBI, .349 (batting title)
2003: 1014 OPS, 37 HR, 104 RBI, .325
2004: 1009 OPS, 39 HR, 130 RBI, .308
2005: 982 OPS, 45 HR, 144 RBI, .292

At the time of his departure, Ramirez had two top 10 MVP finishes. Lindor already has three.

The point is, Lindor is better than anyone who has worn a Cleveland uniform in the free agent era.

And the Indians have some very good prospects in the low minors too. While there is more risk in projecting those players, if they progress, they should hit Progressive Field around 2021-22, providing low cost talent just in time to pay big money to a superstar player.

Don’t forget Lindor’s appeal to the fan base either. It has been reported that after the home opener and the Yankees’ series at Progressive Field, the next two highest advance ticket sales are Lindor giveaway days.

Of course, Lindor and his agent still make the decision, but we say the Tribe front office should make an offer he cannot refuse.

Frankie Lindor presents the Dolan family with a huge dilemma. Not signing him will seal their fate as an ownership that didn’t take the extra step needed to bringing a World Series title to this area.

Tank Or Not To Tank For Cleveland Teams?

After it was announced that Manny Machado signed a $300 million contract with the San Diego Padres, the conversation around town quickly turned to Francisco Lindor, and the possibility of the Cleveland Indians keeping him after he can become a free agent following the 2021 season.

Being Cleveland, we heard many fans saying if the Indians weren’t going to try to sign the star shortstop, then they should trade him now and start rebuilding for the future.

Which brings us to the question of the day: Tank or not to Tank?

With the Indians having the starting rotation they have along with two of the best position players (Lindor and Jose Ramirez) in baseball, a total rebuild is the last thing on the minds of the front office.

Especially with Lindor still here for three more seasons.

Now, if prior to the ’21 campaign, Lindor’s agents make it clear he will not re-sign with the Tribe and the team gets off to a poor start, dropping out of contention, you might see a deal for the guy who is arguably the best position player in team history.

However, no team is going to give up a chance to win a championship, and if the Indians win the AL Central they will have that shot, to start rebuilding.

Let’s look at two instances of rebuilding jobs in our own town–

The Cavaliers didn’t intend to tank this season, but when you lose LeBron James, drop your first six contests, and then lose your best remaining player for basically the entire first half of the season, you change your way of thinking.

Once you hit the end of November with one of the NBA’s worst records and Love is still going to be out until February, GM Koby Altman had to try and get one of the first picks in the June draft, and hopefully you get Zion Williamson with the first choice.

The Browns were stuck in mediocrity for most of the last 15 seasons, when then GM Sashi Brown decided to gut the roster, purging it of veterans and trying to go with young players who can hit their prime together.

We don’t believe he envisioned 1-31 over two seasons, but Hue Jackson’s guidance took care of that, and earned the Browns a franchise quarterback, and a franchise pass rusher.

In both cases, the circumstances (poor start and Love’s injury for the Cavs, an extended period of crap football for the Browns) dictated the tank.

Tanking isn’t guaranteed to work. While people point to the Cubs and Astros in baseball, both of those teams drafted very well, with Chicago getting Kris Bryant and Kyle Schwarber, and the Astros drafted George Springer, Carlos Correa, and Alex Bregman in the first round in a three year span.

Let’s say the Cavs wind up with the worst record and the fourth overall pick, do they subject their fan base to another year like this? It’s also tough for the front office/ownership to sit through.

And for the Browns, they tried a whole bunch of things. They tried helping young players by supplementing them with veterans. They tried getting veteran quarterbacks, getting players with local ties.

None of it worked.

Why not try what the Dallas Cowboys did when Jerry Jones bought the team and hired Jimmy Johnson. Gut the roster, accumulate draft picks, and see if that works.

We started to see the fruits of this plan, aided by hiring a good talent evaluator in John Dorsey, this past year.

If you decide to tank, here is the difficult question no one wants to ask–What happens when you don’t get the first overall pick?

You have to have a back up plan. If you don’t, you lose your job. That’s why more teams don’t do it.

Tribe’s Replaceable Four

The other day, we discussed the “slump” that the Cleveland Indians’ front office has been in since the end of last season.

We have all realized the Tribe’s roster is top heavy, and it needs more depth. We also assume the Indians will be really be a player for a guy like Manny Machado, because they will not be interested in giving up a high ranking prospect for a player who would be with Cleveland for basically two months.

That said, here is a list of players the Indians should be looking at replacing, if only to get incrementally better.

Rajai Davis. We understand he’s a great teammate, great locker room presence, etc…, but Davis was never a great hitter, and this year, he’s worse.

He’s a lifetime 693 OPS and a .312 on base average, and this year, those figures have dropped to 587 and .297, respectively. He has been terrible vs. lefties (491 OPS), and his lone skill remaining is the ability to steal bases, which of course, is meaningless unless he is used as a pinch runner.

Getting someone else who can at least contribute offensively would benefit the bench. The pit of misery that is centerfield this season is a reason why getting a player like Adam Jones from Baltimore would be an upgrade.

Brandon Guyer. Guyer was tremendous when he came over from Tampa Bay in 2016, hitting .333 (907 OPS), and had an OPS over 1000 vs. southpaws. He has battled injuries since then, and he’s not the same lethal bat against left-handers.

Guyer still has a very good 853 OPS against lefties, but his batting average vs. southpaws is just .250. And while he was passable vs. RHP, he is 2 for 44 this season.

Could Guyer finish strong? Of course, but his offensive numbers have been in decline since 2016, and that’s not a good trend. Getting the ’16 Guyer to replace him would be optimal.

Zach McAllister/Dan Otero. Both right-handers have been mainstays in the Cleveland bullpen over the past few years, but let’s face it, relievers are relievers for a reason, and it may be their usefulness with the Tribe is at an end.

Since moving to the pen, McAllister has always been a strikeout per inning guy and allowed about a hit per inning, but to this point, his whiffs are down (29 in 36-1/3 IP) and his hits allowed are up (42 hits). He has been prone to the gopher ball, and that number has increased too.

Otero was great in his first year with the Indians in 2016, with an ERA of 1.53, and last year that figure did go up, but was a very respectable 2.85.

This year, his ERA has virtually doubled at 5.60. The biggest stat that stands out is he is allowing home runs at the highest rate of his career. He had a similar year with Oakland in 2015, but if the Indians get a couple of bullpen arms at the deadline, both of these guys could be moved elsewhere.

We didn’t address Roberto Perez because he the Indians value his defense more than they dislike his offense. And Greg Allen was omitted from the list because he need probably can use more time in the minors.

Again, even if you don’t add a star, upgrading the roster incrementally can make a difference. Remember what the Guyer acquisition meant in ’16. He had a big hit in Game 2 of the ALDS vs. David Price and Boston.

Coco Crisp was picked up on August 31st that year and hit two post-season homers and went 4 for 12 in the World Series.

Sometimes, small subtle moves can prove important. Getting more production at these four spots could make a big difference in October.