Champion Tribe Still Has Offensive Questions.

It’s been a baseball season filled with ups and downs for the Cleveland Indians, but since they reside in the American League Central Division, Terry Francona’s squad coasted to the division title, the first team to clinch that spot in the big leagues this season.

We have said it all season, the Tribe lineup is very top heavy, and the team is in the top three in the AL in runs scored because of SS Francisco Lindor, 3B/2B Jose Ramirez, LF Michael Brantley, and to a lesser extent DH Edwin Encarnacion.

Beyond that quartet, there have been some hot streaks by other players, but you know it has been a tough season for many of the Indians’ hitters, when Melky Cabrera’s signing was important.

Over the last month, Lindor and Ramirez have regressed from their superman status offensively, Lindor kind of being a normal human being, while Ramirez has been in a slump.

That has made it difficult for the Indians to maintain a solid offense for the last four to six weeks.

If Josh Donaldson can be even close to the player he was in 2015 and 2016, he brings an additional impact to the lineup.  And that is needed because the Indians rank in the lower third of the league in WAR at several positions.

They are second last in the AL in centerfield, fourth from the bottom in rightfield, and rank 10th (out of 15) at second base.

That’s why the front office gambled on Donaldson.  That moves Ramirez to second, an upgrade, and Jason Kipnis, who isn’t having a great year, to center, where his off year is better than what the Tribe has had to use in the middle of the outfield.

Bradley Zimmer started the year out there, but struck out 44 times in a 114 plate appearance, before getting hurt and ending his season with a .226 batting average and a 611 OPS.

He was platooning with Rajai Davis, who is still active, and has an even worse OPS at 567, with just 8 extra base hits in 210 plate appearances.

By contrast, Roberto Perez, having a miserable year at the plate by anyone’s standards, has 10 extra base hits.

Greg Allen took over and by comparison has looked better, but he’s has a 613 OPS and a .241 batting average and 13 extra base hits.

Management traded for Leonys Martin from Detroit before the July 31st trade deadline, but he fell ill after playing six games, and that sent president Chris Antonetti and GM Mike Chernoff scrambling.

The fear here is that the Indians will be one of those teams who are so deficient in certain areas that it offsets the greatness of Lindor and Ramirez, and the starting pitching, which claims three of the AL’s top ten in ERA, and four of the league’s top ten in strikeouts.

The Tribe’s likely first round opponent, the Astros, lead the league in ERA and in strikeouts.  Meaning runs will probably be tough to come by, so even if the top of the order is hitting, someone will still need to step up to win the series.

Maybe it will be Encarnacion or Donaldson.  Perhaps Kipnis will hit in the playoffs like he did in 2016, when he belted 4 homers and knocked in eight.

Unless the pitching staff is throwing shutouts, they will need more than Lindor, Brantley, and Ramirez.  And remember, those three didn’t really hit well a year ago.

There can’t be anymore moves made, so the players on the roster are going to have to step up.  The question is will they?

MW

 

The Tribe Outfield Dilemma: Need Offense and Defense

The Major League Baseball trading deadline is just hours away and the Cleveland Indians still some holes they need to fix if they want to compete the “big three” of the American League:  The Astros, Red Sox, and Yankees.

As has been documented before, the Cleveland lineup is very top heavy.  Once you get past the first five hitters in Terry Francona’s batting order, it is a virtual desert.

In our opinion, to have a good offense you need to have seven solid bats in the lineup.  That leaves the Tribe two good hitters short.

It is a testament to how great Francisco Lindor, Michael Brantley, Jose Ramirez, Edwin Encarnacion, and Yonder Alonso have been that the Indians rank 2nd in the American League in runs scored.

The balance of the order, particularly the outfielders, aren’t getting it done.  Yes, Brandon Guyer has started hammering lefties lately, but the centerfield platoon of Tyler Naquin and Rajai Davis isn’t getting it done, and Melky Cabrera has a 626 OPS as well.

It’s particularly tough for the offense when Roberto Perez, hitting .144, is catching.

Suffice it to say, the Tribe could use another bat or two to protect itself for when the top five is having a rare day where they aren’t hitting.

But here is where the rub is, the other problem for the Indians is their defense in the outfield.  Davis has been okay defensively, but Naquin is a corner outfielder at his core, and struggles in center.

In rightfield, Cabrera is below average with the glove, and Michael Brantley is at this point in his career probably should be a designated hitter.

When your starting pitchers are as good as Cleveland’s, shouldn’t you support them with solid defense?

Right now, no one is giving up centerfielders who can go get balls in the gap and can also be a factor with a bat in his hand.  So, it seems Chris Antonetti and Mike Chernoff have a decision to make.  Do they just punt on the defense and go for the bat, or get a solid glove man and try to manufacture runs some other way.

One move the team could make is the same one they made late last season, moving Jason Kipnis to center.  That would allow Francona to move Ramirez to second base, and have Yandy Diaz, an on base machine to man the hot corner.

It would seem that Diaz in the lineup over Naquin and his .295 on base percentage (651 OPS) would help the offense.

Getting a better platoon partner for Guyer in RF would also help, and we would suggest getting former St. Ignatius High standout Derek Dietrich from the Marlins if possible.

Dietrich has a .348 on base percentage and a .824 OPS vs. right-handed pitching this season, which would be a perfect match for Guyer.

We are definitely not a fan of Joey Gallo, also mentioned in rumors.  He has a 751 OPS vs. righties and his numbers away from Texas (.167 batting average, 656 OPS) aren’t ideal.

That’s the dilemma for the Cleveland front office.  They need an offensive boost, mostly in the outfield, but they need an upgrade defensively out there as well.  It doesn’t appear there is a player available out there that fixes both problems.

So, it may be that two moves are needed.

There is some pressure on Antonetti and Chernoff, unless they want to move Kipnis, but we don’t know if that move fixes either issue.

MW

Tribe Cruising In Division Race, Trailing In Expectation At Halfway Mark

The Cleveland Indians hit the halfway point in the season a very puzzling team to be sure.  They finished the first half of the season 44-37, on a pace to win 88 games, far below what was projected coming into the campaign.

Their offense, although somewhat top heavy with Francisco Lindor, Michael Brantley, and Jose Ramirez, is still productive enough to rank 4th in the American League in runs scored (2nd last year), and the pitching staff has overcome a bad bullpen to still be 6th in the AL in ERA.

We will say this, the Indians under Terry Francona have been a second half team more often than not, and hopefully that trend will continue.

To date, here are the 27 game splits record wise in 2018:

Games 1-27:  15-12
Games 28-54:  14-13
Games 55-81:  15-12

They haven’t put together streaks where they played exceptional, nor have they been dreadful.  The last week or so of play illustrates the point.

Cleveland finished a nine game homestand on a seven game winning streak.  They followed that up by losing four of five on the subsequent road trip.

The great play within the division is both good and alarming.  On one hand, you have to play well within the division to win it, and the Tribe has done that, going 20-12 vs. the other Central Division teams, and that includes a lackluster 3-6 vs. Minnesota.

However, that means the Tribe is a pedestrian 24-25 vs. everyone else.  Keep in mind, the AL Central is the worst in baseball.  So, when the Indians venture out of the division, they are a below .500 baseball team.

Part of the problem is the bullpen, which has been without Andrew Miller most of the year, and recently has been buoyed a bit by the emergence of Neil Ramirez (2.25 ERA and 16 strikeouts in 16 innings) and veteran lefty Oliver Perez (allowed one run and has 11 Ks in 10 frames).

Outside of this duo, and Cody Allen, the relief corps has been dreadful.  The Indians still rank 14th (just ahead of Kansas City) in bullpen ERA, and is 5th in the AL in allowing home runs out of the ‘pen.

Zack McAllister and Dan Otero have each allowed seven dingers this year, while Cody Allen has allowed five, and Nick Goody and Josh Tomlin (in 15 relief innings) has allowed four.

Many times, as we saw the last two days in Oakland, the bullpen eliminate any opportunity for a comeback win by the offense, by giving up the long ball.

As for the bats, we have always said we try to be more patient than most, but the front office’s faith in Jason Kipnis has born fruit.  Kipnis has his average up to .217 after hitting .266 in June.  But, should he stay at 2B?

You see, centerfield for Cleveland has been a vortex of suck all season.

Bradley Zimmer had a 611 OPS, Greg Allen won the job while Zimmer was on the DL, and promptly went 1 for 33 after Zimmer was sent to the minor leagues.

Tyler Naquin inherited the gig from Allen, and hit .162 with four RBI in June.

Perhaps the Indians should go back to their playoff lineup from last season, and put Kipnis back in center, with Jose Ramirez shifting back to 2B, and call up Yandy Diaz to play third?

Just a thought.

And then we have Brandon Guyer.  Guyer is still a solid hitter vs. southpaws, hitting .246 with an 832 OPS.  However, when Guyer came over at the deadline in 2016, he hit .216 vs. right handers (628 OPS).  Not great, but passable.

Last year, though injury plagued to be fair, those numbers dropped to a .204 batting average and a 577 OPS.

This year, he is 1 for 39 against righties.  Keep in mind, rookie PITCHER Shane Bieber is 1 for 3 vs. right-handers.

There has to be another alternative.

The second half of the season starts in Oakland today, and here’s hoping Francona and the front office find solutions to the problems.  Again, the Central Division isn’t really in jeopardy.  It would be a shock if the Tribe didn’t win the division.

But they are playing against their own expectations, so they need to get better.

MW

 

 

 

Tribe Has More Wrong Than Just The Bullpen Right Now

As the Cleveland Indians hover around the .500 mark this season, there are other reasons besides the bullpen for the inconsistent start.

Four of the five starters have been outstanding, with only Josh Tomlin struggling, but Terry Francona has, because of injuries and manipulating off days, limited Tomlin to just six starts, showing that the organization has lost a little faith in The Little Cowboy.

The offense ranks 6th in the American League in runs scored, but that is a tad misleading.  Cleveland has scored three runs or less in 16 of their 44 contests to date, which is 36.4%.  The Tribe is 5-11 in those games, which again is a tribute to the starting pitchers.

What it means is the hitting has been inconsistent, and it has been carried by three remarkable performances.

The trio of Jose Ramirez, Michael Brantley, and Francisco Lindor might just be the best one-third of a lineup in baseball right now.  And if only one of the three is hitting in a specified game, the Indians have problems scoring.

The switch-hitting Ramirez, still just 25 years old, can now be considered one of baseball’s elite players.  We remember the talk in 2016, saying he was having a career year, which almost no one has at 23.

Ramirez is 5th in the league in OPS (1.007) and also ranks in the top five in home runs and doubles.  He is also third in the AL in WAR, behind Mike Trout and Mookie Betts.

Lindor, another switch-hitter and just 24 years old, is 8th in OPS (953), is tied with Ramirez for 5th in doubles and is in the top ten in HRs.  And he leads the junior circuit in defensive WAR too.

Brantley, 31, is the wily veteran of this threesome, but he appears to be recovered from the physical problems of the past two seasons, hitting .333 (4th in the league) and his OPS of 942 ranks 9th.

And in this age of the swing and miss, Brantley has struck out just 11 times, and has the second lowest whiff rate (behind Andrelton Simmons and just ahead of Ramirez) in the AL.

The problem with the offense is everyone else, save for Yan Gomes, who has to date had a real good year (.264, 6 HR, 12 RBI, 807 OPS).

While many have pointed to Jason Kipnis’ disappointing season (.174 batting average, 522 OPS), we would put Yonder Alonso in that category as well.

The veteran has a 708 OPS, and worse just a .280 on base percentage.  The offense misses the walks provided by Carlos Santana (.363 OBP) greatly.  He has also hit just .163 vs. lefties, which means the team should, and has, started playing Erik Gonzalez at first against southpaws.

Francona is not getting much out of his bench/platoon guys either, save for Gonzalez (978 OPS in 36 at bats).

Brandon Guyer is hitting only .150 total, just .229 vs. lefties, who he has hit .278 lifetime, and is just 1 for 32 vs. right-handers.

Rajai Davis is batting just .213 with a 514 OPS, and it appears his only offensive value is as a pinch-runner.

Roberto Perez is batting just .132 (484 OPS), so when he is in there, and he is still a very good pitch framer and defensive catcher, he’s a liability at the plate.

And Greg Allen, who has been pressed into service with the injuries to Lonnie Chisenhall, and then Tyler Naquin, has a .200 batting average, and hasn’t walked to date, with 12 strikeouts in 30 plate appearances.

Perhaps veteran Melky Cabrera can help when he is brought up, but he’s a defensive liability. He did have a 746 OPS last year with the White Sox and Royals.  And maybe Yandy Diaz can help too.

Otherwise, there isn’t much Francona can do.  These guys do have track records, but it is tough for the offense to generate runs with just three big bats.  A team needs production up and down the order.

If that doesn’t happen, Chris Antonetti and GM Mike Chernoff may have to get a bat as well as some bullpen arms before the July 31st trading deadline.

MW

Even The Best Coaches/Managers Aren’t Perfect.

Being a beat reporter for a professional sports team has to cause a lot of internal conflict.
You have a job to do and that is to present the facts regarding individual games, individual players, and the circumstances surrounding a professional sports entity.

If you are around the same group of people everyday for eight or nine months out of the year, you would be unbelievably callous if you didn’t develop some sort of relationship with players or coaches.

Assuming the person involved isn’t a first class jerk, you want them to do well, it’s just human nature.

Here is a fact.  There is no such thing as a perfect coach/manager.  Even the best of them have weaknesses, even though sometimes the beat writers don’t want to admit it.

For example, Terry Francona is recognized as one of baseball’s best managers, and rightfully so.  He’s won two World Series with Boston, including their first in 86 years, and took the Indians to another one.

It is one thing to guide the Red Sox, one of the sports’ big market teams to two pennants, but taking the small market Indians to one shows he is the real deal as a skipper.

We believe most baseball fans would agree there is no one they’d rather have managing the Indians, but that doesn’t mean every move Tito makes is the correct one.

Francona is famously patient, we have said at times this patience starts to become stubbornness.  That’s a fine line for every coach or manager.

In essence, they are the same as the beat writers.  They have been through successful seasons with the players and they want to give them the benefit of the doubt.  By this time, watching Tito for more than five years in Cleveland, we can usually tell what players will or will not get the benefit of the doubt in terms of playing time or pitching usage.

As for the Cavs, Tyronn Lue coached the Cavs to a world title in 2016.  He is a much better playoff coach, and does a good job designing plays after timeouts.

However, the Cavs’ defensive schemes in the regular season are atrocious.  Lue’s loyalty to Mike Longabardi should be called into question.  At least to the public, the coach continuously talks about pace, but never a defensive mindset.

Lue also is a loyalist, favoring the players who have won for him in the past.  JR Smith and Tristan Thompson have had tough years, but at least the former doesn’t seem to lose playing time.

Right now, it seems that no matter what the question is, the answer is Jeff Green.  Lue named him a starter for the rest of the regular season and playoffs the other day when he doesn’t even know the playoff match ups.

Lue’s other weakness to us is a feel for the game.  He stays too long with players who clearly do not have it on that day.  We aren’t talking about LeBron James or Kevin Love.  We are talking about the role players.  For example, if Jordan Clarkson doesn’t have it that day, he’s not making shots, then try someone else.

Even Hue Jackson, despite having the worst record in NFL history over the past two seasons has defenders in the media.  Again, Hue seems to be a good guy, but defending a 1-31 record should call credibility into question.

The point is even the best coaches or managers aren’t perfect.  Just because fans question these weaknesses, it doesn’t mean they want them fired.

We also understand the world of social media has people who fire Francona or Lue each and everyday.

We know it can be tough for the media to ask a tough question about strategy, and guys like Lue won’t answer them anyway.  That doesn’t mean they shouldn’t be called into question.

JK

The Tribe Will Continue To Dominate Central in 2018

If you grew up in the 60’s and 70’s, it seems funny to hear this, but since the three division format was adopted by Major League Baseball in 1994, the Cleveland Indians, yes, the team that plays right here in downtown, has dominated the division.

The Tribe won its 9th division title a year ago, and we believe they will add a 10th in 2018.

Here is a list of AL Central Division crowns since ’94:

Cleveland      9
Minnesota    6
Chicago         4
Detroit          4
Kansas City  1

However, the only Central Division teams that have won the World Series are the White Sox in 2005 and the Royals in 2015.

Here is another tidbit about the Indians’ success since Progressive Field (nee Jacobs Field) opened in ’94.  Only the behemoth AL franchises, the Yankees and Red Sox, have made more post-season appearances than Cleveland’s 10 (they were the wild card in 2013).

And the Tribe’s 10 appearances isn’t too far behind the Red Sox’ 12.

Terry Francona’s squad won 102 games a year ago, and you can make a very good argument that they underachieved.   Their Pythagorean won-loss record had them at 108 wins.

Surely, winning 100 games is a tremendous feat and we would not predict that happening again, but the Indians did win the division by 17 games, and have pretty much the same cast of characters returning.

You would think some kind of regression could be coming for the team’s stars, but then you remember the two best position players on the roster are Francisco Lindor, who won’t be 25 until after the ’18 season concludes, and Jose Ramirez, who will play most of the campaign at 25 years old.

If the peak of a baseball player’s career is between ages 27-29, it is scary to think those two should still be getting better.

Add in perhaps the sports best starting rotation, led by two time Cy Young Award winner Corey Kluber, and none of the top four starters are older than 32 years old, and you can see why optimism reigns for baseball fans in northeast Ohio.

Kluber won the award, but the Tribe’s #2 starter, Carlos Carrasco, finished fourth in the voting.  Pretty good, eh?

Francona also has two of the best relievers in the sport at his disposal in Andrew Miller and Cody Allen.  Miller’s numbers are incredible, he allowed just 31 hits in 62-2/3 innings last year while striking out 95 batters, as Tito used him in the highest leverage situations.

Allen fanned 92 in 67 innings as the closer.  So, when Cleveland has a lead late in a game, they usually keep it.

We also believe Jason Kipnis will bounce back from a injury plagued 2017 season where he played only 90 games.  He will look more like the player who belted 23 homers and had an 811 OPS in ’17.

Yes, the team did lose Carlos Santana and replaced him with Yonder Alonso, who has had just one season of power hitting under his belt in the bigs, and that worries us.

But the Tribe could be in a position to add two bats without making a trade this season in Yandy Diaz, who hit .350 in AAA last year and had a .352 on base percentage with the Tribe in 156 at bats, and Francisco Mejia, who will be getting some time in the OF at Columbus this summer.

Mejia could very well wind up being part of the Tribe’s “Big Three” with Lindor and Ramirez.

Many have said the “window” for the Tribe is closing because Miller and Allen are free agents following this season.  We don’t believe that because of the presence of Lindor, Ramirez, Kluber, etc.

The Indians teams from 1994-2001 are well remembered here, but this current run for the Tribe, the Tito Era is you will, has now spanned for five seasons, and could rival the former group in longevity.

So, sit back and enjoy.  This group could bring “The Land” its first World Series title in 70 years.

MW

 

 

Roster Spot Battles Heat Up For Tribe.

Major league baseball will begin its season in less than two weeks, so we are down to the nitty gritty in terms of battles for Opening Day roster spots.

For the sake of this piece, we will assume that Michael Brantley, Brandon Guyer, and Danny Salazar will all open the season on the disabled list, something that is definite for the latter two, but Brantley has started to hit in minor league games.

We will also figure that Terry Francona will keep 13 pitchers, meaning eight relievers will make the team.  This is the way to keep Ryan Merritt, who is out of options.

The first battle is who will be the Tribe’s utility infielder in Seattle on March 29th.

It was figured going into camp that Erik Gonzalez was the frontrunner, but Giovanny Urshela has made a very strong bid to beat him out.  Urshela has been playing all four infield spots and his bat has been great, as he is 18 for 33 with 3 HR in Arizona.

He has walked just once, but has struck out only three times.

Gonzalez is 6 for 26 without a homer and has walked three times and fanned in seven at bats.  Strike zone judgment has always been an issue for him as his career strikeout to walk ratio is 45:4.

Neither have options remaining, and we would think Gonzalez has more trade value because he’s a natural shortstop and his glove can play as a regular in the majors.

In the outfield, we would pencil in Bradley Zimmer and Lonnie Chisenhall on the team, but who is the primary leftfielder and who is the other right-handed bat considering both Zimmer and Chiz hit left-handed.

What we don’t understand is why Yandy Diaz isn’t getting reps in the outfield, because you could put him in left on an everyday basis, meaning the battle would be between veterans Rajai Davis and Melvin Upton Jr, and Rob Refsnyder.

Tyler Naquin could be in the mix too, but he’s another left handed bat.

Nobody has really taken charge in this battle.  Davis is 7 for 27 with one extra base hit and no walks.  Upton is 6 for 33 with a home run, three walks, and has fanned 11 times, while Refsnyder is 7 for 31 with two homers and six walks.

Again, why not consider Diaz, who is 10 for 28 with a dinger and four walks?

Our guess is Francona will pick Davis and Upton and give them a week or two on the big league roster as an audition.

As for the bullpen, if Merritt is kept, six of the spots have been filled with Cody Allen, Andrew Miller, Dan Otero, Zack McAllister, and Tyler Olson claiming them.

We think Nick Goody has pitched his way out of a solid spot by giving up 14 hits and 10 runs in seven innings of work.

Matt Belisle, signed at the beginning of camp, probably claims one spot allowing two runs in eight innings, although the 13 hits allowed are troubling.

That leaves Alexi Ogando (one run in eight innings, 12 strikeouts), and Carlos Torres (seven runs, 13 hits in 7-1/3 frames, but really one bad outing) battling with Goody.

We feel you will see Francona using these guys in high leverage situations for the next week and a half to figure out.  We note that Ogando was the second pitcher used yesterday and threw two innings.

In fact, we think you will see all of these players getting a lot of time until the decision is made.  The regulars will get their at bats in minor league contests.

Decision time is coming.  A strong finish by each one of these players could put them in Seattle for game one.

MW

 

Early Spring Roster Battles For Tribe

Exhibition play is a little over a week old in Goodyear, Arizona and what that means mostly is we are closer to the start of the regular season, which is now just 24 days away.

We have always maintained the perfect record for spring training is around .500, because it doesn’t give the fan bases of a bad team any unrealistic expectations, nor does it worry supporters of good teams, like the Cleveland Indians.

The best news to come out of the desert is it appears Jason Kipnis is healthy and ready to go.

We were never in the trade Kipnis camp, because he is coming off a poor, injury plagued season, so the Tribe front office was never going to get value, it would have been strictly a salary dump.

The negatives have been on the injury front where Danny Salazar likely will not be able to open the season on the big league roster, and OF Brandon Guyer has had some set backs as well, although we aren’t sure his timetable was to open the year on the active list.

Salazar’s injury simply means Terry Francona and new/old pitching coach Carl Willis don’t have to make a decision on whether or not they have to move a starter to the bullpen.

As of right now, Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, Trevor Bauer, Mike Clevinger, and Josh Tomlin will make up the starting staff.

With Guyer and Michael Brantley likely to be on the disabled list to start the season, it opens up two outfield spots, with holdovers Abraham Almonte, Tyler Naquin, Greg Allen, and Yandy Diaz battling with Rob Refsnyder, Rajai Davis, and Melvin Upton Jr. to make the Opening Day roster.

Quite frankly, we think each spot will go to one in each group.

The first group has two switch-hitters in Almonte and Allen, with Naquin swinging from the left side and Diaz the right.  The latter has been playing most infield, so maybe versatility wins out.

The brass knows what Almonte can do and Allen could probably benefit from some time at AAA.  In the latter group, Refsnyder offers the multi-position option, while Davis and Upton are trying for one last shot at a big league roster.

To date, neither of the veterans have done much in games, but this is the Indians we are talking about, and we know Tito and his staff love veterans.

We would keep Diaz, putting him in LF to start, and Refsnyder would also get a shot because he can play both infield and outfield.

In the bullpen, the loss of Bryan Shaw and Joe Smith leave two openings, but the recent signings of veteran Matt Belisle, Carlos Torres, and the claiming of Ben Taylor from Boston would make them the leading candidates to win the job.

Torres is durable, pitching in 65 or more games in three of the last four years in the bigs, and Belisle ended last season as the Twins closer, pitching great in the second half, after solid years in Washington and St. Louis.

One reliever to watch is Nick Goody, who has struggled so far in Arizona.  He doesn’t have the track record of some of the other arms, so he could find himself the odd man out if he doesn’t start pitching better.

Again, it’s early.  But the players we talked about are the ones in battles to make the trip north to Seattle on March 29th.

Which can’t get here fast enough.

MW

Tribe Can’t Platoon In Too Many Spots

Cleveland Indians’ manager Terry Francona is one of the best in the league at using the platoon advantage.

It helps that his team has a number of switch-hitters who are regulars:  SS Francisco Lindor, 2B Jose Ramirez, and 1B Carlos Santana were everyday players in 2017.

It enables Francona to platoon in right field where he used Lonnie Chisenhall and Brandon Guyer until both were injured and the front office acquired Jay Bruce.

He also did the same in center, using rookie Bradley Zimmer and veteran Austin Jackson out there.

In 2016, he did the same, using Tyler Naquin and Rajai Davis in center for the American League champs.

The players have to have decided platoon advantages for the strategy to work.  Guyer is lethal vs. southpaws, and Jackson hit .352 against lefties last season.

We mention this because with Santana and Bruce now free agents, many people look at available free agents and wonder about fits for the Tribe.

One name that came up was 1B Matt Adams, recently non-tendered by Atlanta.

Adams, who swings from the left side, has an 828 career OPS vs. right handed pitching with a .286 batting average.  We like Adams, who has been production even though he’s been an everyday player just one season.

However, there is one problem with the platooning.  Francona also likes to carry 13 pitchers, including eight relievers.  That means there are only 12 position players, which limits how many spots the manager can use a platoon system.

Plus, two of those dozen position players are catchers, so if you aren’t platooning with that position, it means there are only two spots that the manager can use different players against left-handers and right-handers.

And don’t forget the need for a utility infielder, preferably someone who can play shortstop defensively so you aren’t playing a statue when Lindor gets his infrequent days off.

So, if the Indians don’t re-sign Santana, they will either need a full time option there or decide that Zimmer has to play everyday in centerfield.  Either that or have one less pitcher in the bullpen for Francona.

As things are right now, you have to think the current platoons will be Chisenhall and Guyer in right (again) and Zimmer and a right-handed bat to be named later in centerfield.

That’s why we still believe if Santana goes elsewhere, Michael Brantley will move to first base with Jason Kipnis playing left field.  If Santana returns, we could see a deal involving Kipnis.

If you want to look at a player from another team that was non-tendered, how about reliever Hector Rondon.

The right-hander was in the Tribe organization until 2012, and had seasons of 29 and 30 saves for the Cubs in 2014 and 2015.

Last season, he was 4-1 with a 4.24 ERA for Chicago, with 69 strikeouts in 57-1/3 innings, so he still has swing and miss stuff.

We know the Indians like to reunite with former players, so it wouldn’t be a surprise if the reliever came back to Cleveland, especially since the front office has to be looking for arms to replace Bryan Shaw, who is a free agent.

With the Winter Meetings starting on Sunday, the Indians’ roster changes should start to take place.  Just remember the number of platoon options are limited unless full time players are acquired as well.

MW

 

 

 

 

 

 

Yankees A Huge Challenge For Tribe

Anyone who is an ardent fan of baseball knows that it is a funny game.  It is probably the one sport where the best team not winning the World Series would be the norm.

The Cleveland Indians finished the regular season with the American League’s best record, so they get the winner of the wild card game as their opponent in the Division Series.

Unfortunately, the winner of that game, the New York Yankees, might just be the second best team in the AL.

The Indians led the league in run differential, outscoring their opponents by an incredible 254 runs.  The Yankees were second, with a +198 mark, just slightly ahead of Houston’s +196.

It is not the ideal situation to play the second best team in the league in a best-of-five series.

Many people have focused on Terry Francona’s decision to start Trevor Bauer in game one, but we have always thought the even numbered games are most important in a series until the deciding game, and that may be Tito’s thought process in using ace Corey Kluber in the second game.

If Bauer wins the series opener, how great will it be to have Kluber going with a chance to take a commanding 2-0 lead.

And if the Indians lose game one, you have perhaps the AL’s best pitcher to tie up the series at a game apiece.

Another reason is Francona seems hesitant to use Josh Tomlin as a starter.  If Kluber pitches game one, Tomlin would seem to be the most likely candidate to pitch a potential fourth game.

If Bauer goes in the first game, Kluber still would be the game five starter, and Bauer can go in game four, backed up by the bullpen, which has starters Danny Salazar, Mike Clevinger, and Tomlin as members.

There is no question the Yankees are a different team outside of the bandbox that is new Yankee Stadium, but amazingly, they pitch better at home too.

New York has a 817 OPS as a team at home, but that figure drops to 755 on the road.  As a comparison, the Indians have a 782 OPS at Progressive Field, and a 793 OPS away from home, another reason the Cleveland tied Houston for the best road record in the AL at 53-28.

The Yankees also have a very good bullpen, perhaps second only to the Indians.

Just as Francona can shorten a game by going to Joe Smith, Bryan Shaw, Andrew Miller, and Cody Allen after five innings, Yankee skipper Joe Girardi can do the same with David Robertson, Chad Green, Tommy Kahnle, and Aroldis Chapman.

It will be very important for the Tribe to get an early lead in each game.

These games will probably be long.  The two teams involved are one and two in the American League in walks, but the big difference is in strikeouts.

The Indians have a strikeout staff leading the AL in whiffs, and the Yankees rank 6th in the league in fanning.  New York’s pitching staff ranks 4th in strikeouts, but Indians’ hitters are second to last in the junior circuit in whiffing.

The one decided edge the Tribe has is in the starting pitching.  While Luis Severino is one of the sports’ best young starters, Francona has three of perhaps the top ten starters in the AL at his disposal.

It is very likely that this Yankee team is better than the Red Sox or Blue Jays teams the Indians met last year in the post-season.

Make no mistake, this series will be a challenge.

MW