Starters Throwing Strikes, Hitters Striking Out. Two Early Problems For Guards

It’s early folks, it’s extremely early.

We know the MLB Network is already making projections on how many home runs the Yankees will hit this year with their new torpedo bats, and have also started the ridiculous MVP Ladder, but the reality is the Cleveland Guardians and most Major League teams have played just six games.

There are still 156 to go. Remember, one of the sport’s old adages: You can’t trust what you see in April or September.

However, since we wanted to have some discussions about the Cleveland Guardians’ start to the season, we have just those half dozen contests to go on.

Our impressions? Nothing that would differ with anything we thought going into the season.

The starting pitching, save for Tanner Bibee and Gavin Williams, has been for lack of a better term, shaky.

Luis Ortiz, who came over for Pittsburgh in the three-way deal involving Andres Gimenez, had problems throwing strikes, walking four in 4.2 innings, and also allowed nine hits. The concern is Ortiz had the same issue in exhibition play. Logan Allen wasn’t bad in his first start holding San Diego scoreless for four innings, but he walked five in 5.1 innings, and eventually the free passes came back to haunt. He had control problems in 2024.

And the impenetrable bullpen been shaky, with Emmanuel Clase blowing a save in the season openers, and Cade Smith and Hunter Gaddis had some issue in the loss in Kansas City.

Oh yeah, and Joey Cantillo, who probably should be in Columbus starting games for the Clippers, has had issues throwing strikes out of the bullpen.

Offensively, things looked good in KC with the Guards garnering almost as many walks as strikeouts.

But against the Padres, Cleveland hitters whiffed 33 times, including 16 in the middle game of the set, and walked just five times.

You aren’t going to score many runs with that ratio, and the Guardians didn’t, crossing the plate just four times in the three games.

The usual contributors offensively have been fine. Steven Kwan is off to an 8 for 23 start and a .400 on base percentage. He still hasn’t seemed to earn any respect for the men in blue, being called out on strikes on several questionable calls.

Jose Ramirez missed a game with an injured wrist but is 5 for 17 with a homer and two other extra base hits.

We were concerned about the production of the team against right-handed pitching, and a few of the players Steven Vogt needs to be solid vs. those arms have struggled.

Kyle Manzardo, who surprisingly has been a terror vs. southpaws is just 1 for 14 vs. righties. Bo Naylor is just 1 for 12 with seven whiffs, and Carlos Santana, who struggled from the left side last season is just 3 for 14 with just one walk.

And two of the three hitters we have contact concerns about, Gabriel Arias and Nolan Jones, have accumulated 13 Ks and two walks. Arias has had success though, getting off to a 6 for 19 start.

Cleveland travels Los Angeles this weekend for a series against the Angels, who are off to a surprising 4-1 start before finally getting home, and hopefully, the starting pitching does a better job, particularly in throwing strikes.

And they get to come home, which should help the team get comfortable.

Where Will The Innings Come From For Guardians’ Rotation?

With spring training underway and exhibition games starting this Saturday, we have spent a lot of time discussing the Cleveland Guardians.

Today, we look at the pitching staff, primarily the starting rotation. The bullpen was outstanding last season and remember that might be the most volatile spot of any team, but Cleveland seems to have built up some depth if the primary late inning relievers (Emmanuel Clase, Hunter Gaddis, and Cade Smith) take a step back.

And one of them probably will.

That’s where names like Andrew Walters, Erik Sabrowski, who we saw at the end of the season in ’24, and veterans Paul Sewald and newly signed Jakob Junis figure in.

The question is where will the innings come at the beginning of games? Do the Guardians have enough depth among the starters?

Tanner Bibee is the clear ace right now. He’s made 56 starts over the past two seasons and threw 173 regular season innings in 2024. But he’s the only hurler with anything close to a track record.

Luis Ortiz was acquired from the Pirates this winter, and he should have a spot in the rotation. However, his high in innings pitched was last season and he still only reached 135 frames. He had a 3.22 ERA in his 15 starts in ’24, but has still started only 34 big league games.

Gavin Williams in the wild card. Almost everyone agrees he should be a top of the rotation starter, but last year missed the beginning of the year with an elbow issue and finished with a 4.86 ERA in his 16 starts. Overall, he’s made only just 32 big league starts and has fanned 160 in 158 innings.

But what Williams will Steven Vogt get this year? A microcosm of Williams’ season was at the beginning of September. On September 2nd, he threw seven one-hit innings against the Royals. His next start? Couldn’t get out of the first inning against the Dodgers.

Ben Lively made 29 starts last year with a 3.81 ERA, pitching 151 innings. That total almost doubles the next most innings he pitched in the big leagues. Other pitchers have figured it out later in their career, would we bet on Lively being one of those guys? Not sure we can say that.

The questions continue for the rest of the candidates.

Can Triston McKenzie find the strike zone? He walked 49 hitters in 75 innings last season, after pitching just 16 innings the year before. His control was worse at AAA, where he issued 33 free passes in 53 frames. Tough to count on him to make 25-30 starts.

Logan Allen was solid as a rookie (3.81 ERA), but last year allowed 113 hits and 41 bases on balls in 117 innings, compiling a 5.73 ERA. Which Allen pitches this season?

Slade Cecconi came over from Arizona in the Josh Naylor deal, and we have read a lot about how good his stuff is. So far, it hasn’t translated to success because he had a 6.66 ERA in 77 innings a year ago.

Then you have the rookies. Joey Cantillo has less than 40 big league innings and had problems with control (15 walks) and giving up home runs (6). He has a good arm but is far from being someone to count on.

Another lefty, Doug Nikhazy is a long shot to break camp with the team but could be an option later in the season.

Yes, reinforcements will come in the middle of the season with Shane Bieber due back from elbow surgery and it appears John Means will be inked to a deal soon, and he is in the same boat as Bieber.

Both are solid pitchers if healthy, especially Bieber, who of course has won a Cy Young Award.

But what happens until they are ready? There are several veterans who can soak up innings still out there on the market and we bet they could be had on one-year deals.

Perhaps Vogt and the brass are going to lean heavily on the bullpen until the reinforcements are ready. Don’t know if that strategy will work again.

Guards’ Free Agent Signing Addresses A Strength?

The Cleveland Guardians dipped their toes into the free agent market this past week and suprisingly did not address what we consider to be their weaknesses.

Instead, they added to a strength, signing veteran reliever Paul Sewald, a right-hander to a deal. The Guardians have coveted Sewald for years. At one point while he was a young pitcher for the Mets, it was rumored Cleveland was interested in moving Jason Kipnis to get him.

That was probably around 2018 as Kipnis was starting to decline.

Sewald is solid, pitching in 42 games last season with a 4.31 ERA for Arizona, and he saved two games in the National League Championship Series for the Diamondbacks in ’23 as they went to the World Series.

He has saved 84 big league games, with his career high of 34 coming in that 2023 campaign.

He’s a proven solid reliever. But that’s the strength of the Guardians’ staff. They still need starting pitchers and unless the addition of Sewald means someone currently in the bullpen will be given a shot in the rotation (we would like to see Hunter Gaddis try it), it’s difficult to see where this makes sense.

On the other hand, there is an adage that if you can’t fix a weak spot, bolster your strength, so maybe that’s what the plan is here.

There are still plenty of starting pitchers out there who seemingly could be had on a one- or two-year contract. We say this because right now the Guards’ rotation consists of Tanner Bibee and a whole lot of ifs. Gavin Williams and newcomer Luis Ortiz should (should) fill two spots, but the rest of the starters are question marks.

Ben Lively has had one good season and is 33. Can Triston McKenzie find the strike zone?Can Logan Allen be effective? Signing a veteran who can soak up innings, like a Lance Lynn, Jose Quintana, or even Kyle Gibson would make us feel better about the starting staff.

And we haven’t even mentioned the offense, which struggled in the second half of the season and since then has traded their third best bat (and second-best power bat) in Josh Naylor.

Yes, we remembered Cleveland also signed 39-year-old Carlos Santana. Let’s just say that doesn’t have visions of October celebrations dancing in our heads.

There aren’t a lot of appealing bats still available in free agency, but we don’t feel real comfortable about a lineup that has two tough outs in Jose Ramirez and Steven Kwan, and frankly little else that has proven anything at the major league level.

As it stands right now, the Guardians will have two players with less than one year experience in the bigs in their everyday lineup in Kyle Manzardo and Juan Brito. Brayan Rocchio has a solid post-season, but still had a 614 OPS in 2024.

Lane Thomas is better as a platoon piece but will probably be in there every day in centerfield. And of course, Santana will be playing, trying to find the fountain of youth.

Someone in the front office said the organization feels confident in their young players. We would guess most organizations do. However, the job of the executives should be to find alternatives in case something doesn’t work out. Because they never do.

Spring training starts in a few weeks. It’s hard to see the Guardians being better than they were when they were eliminated by the Yankees in the ALCS just three short months ago.

Time Is Running Short To Improve The Guardians

The calendar has turned to 2025 and the holidays (and winter meetings) has passed, so we think it is appropriate to ask exactly what is going on at the corner of Carnegie and Ontario.

Besides the construction on Progressive Field.

We understand spring training hasn’t started yet, and a big move could occur tomorrow, but as of right now, it doesn’t seem like the Cleveland Guardians are building on their success of last season.

This is a team that went to the American League Championship Series. They won 92 games and beat Detroit in the Division Series. But honestly, we don’t think anyone could say the Guardians are a better squad than the one that was eliminated in five games by the Yankees.

Although we understood the major moves made by Chris Antonetti and Mike Chernoff, the truth is the Guardians who were 7th in the AL in runs scored in ’24 traded their third best hitter in Josh Naylor for some magic beans.

And they moved their Gold Glove second baseman in Andres Gimenez, but in that deal, they did get a much-needed starting pitcher in Luis Ortiz

They did sign veteran Carlos Santana for a third go round with the franchise, but his numbers from the last three seasons suggest he should be a platoon player, with the bulk of his production coming from the right side of the plate.

According to the messages being put out there by the front office, the Guardians view him as an everyday player, and we wonder how quickly a sub 700 OPS vs. righties in the lineup each game will get old. Perhaps as old as Santana, who will be 39 next season.

Even with the deal with Pittsburgh for Ortiz, who should be in the rotation to open the season, the rotation is filled with question marks outside of Tanner Bibee.

Gavin Williams has the look of a top of the rotation pitcher, but he has 32 big league starts and 4.06 ERA. Ben Lively was solid last season but has the profile of a journeyman.

And the organization cannot have any true idea what they have in Triston McKenzie, who battled elbow issues in ’23 and control issues in ’24.

Of the everyday players, there is the incomparable Jose Ramirez at 3B, Steven Kwan in LF, and ????? Lane Thomas should hold down another outfield spot, but he’s kind of a platoon player, great vs. lefties, so-so vs. RHP.

Kyle Manzardo and his 145 big league at bats should be a regular. Brayan Rocchio has a great post-season but had a 614 OPS in the regular season. And at 2B and RF, we are sure this will be a spring training competition.

Right now, the biggest strength of the roster is also the most volatile, the bullpen. We believe it’s a reach to think Hunter Gaddis, Cade Smith, and Tim Herrin will all perform on the same level next year.

Once again, the ownership isn’t investing in the team. We understand the situation about the local broadcast revenue, and we know the Dolan family cannot spend like the Dodgers and the Yankees, but they have the cash. They simply choose not to put it toward the ballclub.

We sometimes feel that the Guardians’ ownership doesn’t deserve the great fans they have because they do nothing to build excitement. Heck, they even cancelled the winter meet and greet with the players this off-season.

Yes, there is still time, but it is under 50 days until spring training starts. On paper, the Guardians are a team full of more questions than answers.

Still Concerned About Guards’ Off-Season

Yes, we know spring training for the Cleveland Guardians doesn’t start for another six weeks, but as the calendar is ready to change to 2025, it does appear the franchise is continuing with their frugal ways, forcing the front office to continue with their Dusty Springfield philosophy (Wishin’ and Hopin’).

After winning 92 games and advancing to the American League Championship Series last season, the Guards have dealt two mainstays of that team, Andres Gimenez and Josh Naylor.

We supported the Gimenez move as Cleveland owed him $97 million over the next five years, a lot to pay for excellent defense and a mediocre bat.

We understand the Naylor move too. Naylor is eligible for free agency following the season, and much like Prince Fielder twenty years ago, there is concern about how his body type will age.

The problem is so far, the front office (and we include ownership here) has only spent the savings from trading Naylor and did it by signing 39-year-old Carlos Santana.

Santana has been a very productive player in his career, but it seems like Cleveland is banking a lot on A). someone who is 39, and B). someone who hit .219 with a 676 OPS vs. righties last season.

Do they view Santana as an everyday player or a possible platoon partner with Kyle Manzardo?

Many fans have a poor opinion of the current ownership because they have been reluctant to push the chips in the middle of the table. After a 92-win season and a spot in MLB’s “Final Four”, it would seem to be the time to loosen the purse strings.

As of today, the Guardians still have a starting rotation with a lot of question marks. They have Tanner Bibee, but Gavin Williams hasn’t made the jump to reliable starter yet. They did trade for Luis Ortiz, who should open the year in the rotation, but who is the other proven starter?

They did re-up with Shane Bieber, but he won’t be ready until mid-season.

Pitching wins in the post-season, but you have to score runs in the regular season, and last season, the Guardians were 7th in runs scored, ahead of only Detroit among playoff teams.

But they traded their third best offensive player in Naylor.

Right now, the lineup has just two proven everyday hitters in Jose Ramirez and Steven Kwan. We view Santana as a platoon piece. Lane Thomas is a little above average (741 career OPS) and still has a concerning strikeout to walk ratio.

No matter how high people are on Manzardo, Jhonkensy Noel, Brayan Rocchio, and even Chase DeLauter, none of them have a proven track record in the big leagues.

To have a productive batting order, we feel you need six to seven solid bats. Perhaps Manzardo and Juan Brito can give Steven Vogt’s lineup some length, but how can they feel that way for sure?

We have always felt the front office’s job is to have a contingency plan should the young players not be doing the job. We don’t see that right now. The lineup has too many large questions.

As for ownership, once again they are failing their fan base. Attendance was up last season, and the franchise gained a lot of buzz as the season went on because of the way they played. But it appears they are still holding on to money with a tight fist.

Perhaps by the end of January, they will make a financial commitment and bring in some players who can fill in some holes.

Hope is not a plan. The Guardians need to do better.

Looking At Second Base in ’25 For Guardians

With the winter meetings now history and the Cleveland Guardians making two trades, which both came out of nowhere, we can take a look at how the team shapes up, although there is still plenty of time to make moves with spring training not starting for two months.

Friday, team president Chris Antonetti named four candidates to play second base in place of Andres Gimenez: Gabriel Arias, Tyler Freeman, Daniel Schneemann, and rookie Juan Brito.

We said the other day that Brito should get the first shot. Why? It’s kind of weird to say this, but partially because we haven’t seen him in the big leagues.

Arias will be 25 next season and has 563 plate appearances with the Guardians. He has a 624 OPS in those at bats, and a strikeout to walk ratio of 182:42 and a 32.3% K rate. He has pop when he hits the ball, and that mesmerizes certain fans, but he simply hasn’t been very productive.

Freeman will be 26 and has the most big league at bats out of the quartet with 637 plate appearances and a 632 OPS. His strikeout to walk ratio is 94:42. He was the regular CF in April and May and was doing an acceptable job, but had a slump in June and after Schneemann was called up, lost playing time.

He has an 802 OPS in AAA, which is a pretty good pedigree.

The left-handed hitting Schneemann got off to a great start in AAA last year and carried it over to the big club, hitting .263 in June with a .362 on base average. After the All-Star Game, he hit .202 with a 555 OPS. The organization loved his versatility, but our opinion was the coaching staff loved him a little more than he deserved. He will be 28 this coming season.

Brito is a 23-year-old switch hitter who came over from Colorado for Nolan Jones. He has a career OPS in the minors of 834, including 807 last year in Columbus when he hit .256 with 88 walks and 61 extra base hits.

The Guardians hit more home runs last year than in 2023, but the number of doubles went way down. Brito had 40 doubles for the Clippers last year.

He doesn’t have a great reputation with the glove, and the organization started playing him at 1B, 3B, and RF last season, but as we say many times, get the lead and you can put a glove in the game, either Arias or Freeman, because we don’t think too much of Schneemann’s glove.

Also, have to think Angel Martinez is also in the mix, but his 635 OPS might suggest he needs more time in AAA, as he only has 169 plate appearances and will only be 23-years-old.

Despite getting Luis Ortiz, the Guardians still need starting pitching. Yes, they kept Shane Bieber, but he likely won’t be ready until the second half of the season.

We wonder what the cost would be for a guy like Lance Lynn (7-4, 3.84 ERA, 109 Ks in 117 IP for St. Louis) or a Jose Quintana (10-10, 3.75 ERA in 170 IP for the Mets) would cost.

Both guys would soak up some much-needed innings for Steven Vogt.

And yes, we would still consider Hunter Gaddis for a move back to the rotation. He’s more valuable getting 15-18 outs than three.

Antonetti did say the team has some money to spend with the trade of Gimenez. We still believe the Guardians should increase the payroll from last year anyway, but the reason for the deal was to get out from what was looking to be a bad contract in a couple of years.

Let’s hope that wasn’t media speak by the organization.

Guards Make Two Deals And Get A Much Needed Starter

It was about one month ago that we wrote about the Cleveland Guardians overpaying for defense (https://wordpress.com/post/clevelandsportsperspective.com/21673). Three of their top five contracts (Andres Gimenez, Myles Straw, and Austin Hedges) are for players who are great with the glove, not so much with the bat.

Our theory was that there are tons of players in the minor leagues who can pick it, there is no reason to overpay for fielding. More money should be spent on hitting and pitching.

Essentially, the move the Cleveland Guardians made on Tuesday was dealing Gimenez, the best defensive second baseman in the game, for a starting pitcher, an area of huge need.

We cannot complain about that.

While we are no fans of the Dolan family ownership, we don’t view these moves as a salary dump. Cleveland would have had to pay Gimenez over $23 million per year starting in 2027, and let’s face it, in Gimenez’ four seasons with the Guardians, he was above average as a hitter only in 2022.

In exchange, the Guardians get Luis Ortiz, who made 15 starts with the Pirates a year ago, pitching 135.2 innings with a 3.32 ERA (3.22 as a starter). He struck out 107 hitters, walking only 42.

The 26-year-old right-hander figures to be in the Cleveland rotation to start the season, and let’s face it, the Guards need starting pitchers.

They also received three minor leaguers, all who have either never played professionally (Josh Hartle) or played in low A last season (Nick Mitchell from Toronto and Michael Kennedy from the Pirates). Those guys are lottery tickets.

And let’s face it, the Guardians system is loaded with middle infielders. We would think Juan Brito (807 OPS at AAA in ’24) would get the first shot at taking the spot. Brito, a switch-hitter, hit .256 with 21 homers at Columbus last season, but also drew 88 walks against 105 strikeouts.

His career lifetime on base percentage in the minors is .384.

Besides Brito, the Guardians also have Gabriel Arias, Tyler Freeman, Daniel Schneemann, and/or Angel Martinez who can play second base next year. So, it can also be a move made from strength.

And you cannot forget the organizations’ best prospect is Travis Bazzana, the first overall pick in last year’s amateur draft. He could be arriving sometime during the upcoming season.

There is a difference between a salary dump and moving a contract that an organization doesn’t think is going to age well, and we think the Guardians did the latter.

We still think the Guardians’ ownership needs to spend more, and they freed up almost $11 million to the pool as that was what they were going to pay Gimenez this year. Hopefully, these funds can be used to sign or trade for another starting pitchers or another bat.

If the result of this trade is being able to get another solid starting pitcher or getting another solid hitter to play every day, then we are all in.

But if this is all the Guardians’ front office is going to do? Then they have probably kept the payroll the same after a good year at the gate and on the field. That won’t play well with the people who buy tickets.