Three Major Weak Spots For Guardians

In a little over a week, the Hot Stove season will start in earnest for baseball. Teams all over the sport will be looking to get better, shore up weaknesses, and even make room for hot prospects.

The Cleveland Guardians aren’t a team that generally makes big splashes in terms of acquiring talent. They made two major deals a year ago, but both were more about dealing players who were going to make big money soon (in the case of Andres Gimenez) or were going to hit free agency soon (Josh Naylor).

Despite their September run, the Guardians have a lot of holes on the roster. It has been well documented how bad their offense was, they were third worst in the sport, ahead of just Colorado and Pittsburgh, meaning they were the worst in the American League.

They were also second worst in team OPS, on base percentage, and in slugging percentage.

Where do the Guardians have to get better? If you look at WAR (wins above replacement), it is quite clear where the improvement needs to be. Cleveland had the worst centerfield play in the majors.

Who played there in 2025? Angel Martinez played 114 games, followed by Lane Thomas (38) and Nolan Jones (35). Martinez is still young (he will be 24 next season) and was very good vs. LHP, batting .279 with a 792 OPS. He’s still young enough to develop against right-handers, although he batted .197.

We would guess the Guards will move on from Thomas, who is a free agent, and Jones, who frankly just wasn’t good.

They were third worst in rightfield. Again, Jones got the bulk of the playing time there, appearing in 101 games, followed by Jhonkensy Noel with 60 games.

Noel’s struggles at the plate, mostly involving making contact, are well documented. His OPS was under 500 in 2025.

The third position where the Guardians were near the bottom, 27th in this case, was shortstop, with Gabriel Arias playing 106 games and Brayan Rocchio playing in 72 contests.

Arias received a career high in plate appearances in ’25 and his numbers were pretty much the same as before. He batted .220 (career mark .215), his on base percentage was .274 (same as career) and he slugged .363 (.356).

He has a tremendous arm, perhaps the best in the game, but let’s be truthful, he struggles going to his left. We feel Rocchio has more range by far.

So, what can the team do about these trouble spots?

We don’t know if Cleveland will deal Steven Kwan this winter, but if they don’t, shouldn’t they consider putting him in CF? He’s a great defensive outfielder, so why not put him in the most important position?

That would open up LF for players like Martinez, Juan Brito, and maybe even Chase DeLauter and Travis Bazzana.

With DeLauter’s injury history, it seems weird to mention him in center.

Besides RF needs shoring up as well, and we don’t want to forget George Valera there, but as we have said before, the organization cannot just depend on all young players. They still need a right-handed bat, and preferably a veteran one. A “professional hitter” as they say.

And at short, we just believe Rocchio is a better choice. We think he’s a better hitter and as noted earlier, has more range.

The 2025 Guardians don’t just need improvement at those spots, they need to not be the worst on those positions, and two of them are key defensive spots.

Upgrading at CF, RF, and SS will help make this team a lot better in 2026.

Guardians Hanging In With The Lack Of A Bench

The Cleveland Guardians just keep pushing forward. Last week, they started a very difficult stretch playing ten straight games against three of baseball’s best/hottest teams.

One of the games in Minnesota was rained out, but the Guards split there and then went to Detroit and took three of four from the first place Tigers. They had dropped to fourth place after losing the first game in the Twin Cities and fell six games out of first.

Now, they are in second place, five off the pace set by Detroit. They held the Tigers, the second highest scoring team in the American League to just 11 runs in the four-game set, allowing just one run in the first two contests.

Manager Steven Vogt is doing it with a roster that contains very little depth. Using WAR (wins above replacement), the Guardians have three positions, shortstop, centerfield, and rightfield that rank in the bottom two among all AL teams.

And for the mathematically challenged, that’s one-third of your daily lineup.

To be fair, they also have three spots (LF, 2B, and 3B) that rank in the top four of all teams in the Junior Circuit but imagine if Vogt was getting any kind of production from short and two of the outfield spots. No doubt, his job would be much easier.

The league average OPS is 705. Currently, the Guardians have five players on the roster with figures 100 points less than that: Nolan Jones (552), Jhonkensy Noel (408), Lane Thomas (305), Austin Hedges (538), and Will Wilson (564).

Thomas is just coming back off the injured list and his figure should get better with more at bats, but the problem with this it has to be difficult for Vogt to give players a day off.

We know this wasn’t intended by the skipper to phone in Sunday’s game against the Tigers, but the Guardians did win the first three games of the series and Tarik Skubal, the reigning Cy Young Award winner was going for Detroit.

Vogt used that game to give many of his veteran players, save for Jose Ramirez, a needed day off.

The result was a 2-hit shutout with 13 whiffs for Skubal against a lineup that had just two hitters over league average in OPS–Ramirez and Kyle Manzardo.

You could have predicted the outcome before the game and in fact, many on social media did just that.

We would guess very soon that David Fry will be activated from his rehab assignment, and we would guess he would replace Noel on the 26-man roster. However, Fry can only DH right now, which paints Vogt into another corner. His current DH, Manzardo, leads the Guards in homers (10) and RBIs (28).

He’s also second on the team in walks with 21.

If you play Manzardo at first base, then you have to sit Carlos Santana, who leads the team in walks. Either way, you are sitting one of the productive hitters you have.

Could you put one of them in the outfield? Well, Manzardo has never played the outfield since turning professional and the last time Santana played there was 2022 when he played an inning in RF for Seattle.

Again, this situation shines a spotlight on the weird off-season by the Guardians’ front office. There were veteran free agent outfielders on the market, but the team wasn’t interested. Apparently, they felt what they had in the minors would take care of the problem.

Remember, they also traded for Nolan Jones right before the season opened. How has that worked out?

Vogt is operating with no bench right now. He’s done a solid job getting his regulars some rest and spotting at bats for the non-producing players. You have to wonder, how long can he do that?

Four Guys Who Need To Show For Guardians

Spring training numbers don’t matter if you are Jose Ramirez or Steven Kwan, or even someone like Lane Thomas, whose spot on the roster is assured.

But when you are trying to establish yourself as a Major League player, you probably need to put up some numbers to get big league at-bats when the season kicks off next week.

The Guardians have several players who are in that boat, they haven’t really proven anything at the big-league level, and some of those guys are struggling in Arizona.

Other guys have done well in exhibition play, but how they have performed thus far in the majors have a casting a jaundiced eye.

We have really like Tyler Freeman since he made his major league debut. His minor league pedigree says he should be a solid bat. His AAA numbers are .399/.403/802. Overall in the minors he has a .384 on base percentage.

But he’s had 637 plate appearances with Cleveland and has a .223 batting average with a .304 on base and 632 OPS. He’s been solid this spring going 10 for 32 with two homers and four walks.

How much does the brass trust him?

Then you have someone the front office is giving one last shot to, Gabriel Arias, who is out of options. Arias’ minor league numbers aren’t as impressive as Freeman’s (.337/.456/793 at AAA), but he has the metric the new age folks love–exit velocity. He hits the ball hard. When he hits it.

And that is Arias’ problem. His strikeout rate is 32.3%. The league average is 22.6%.

He hasn’t been strong in the spring training games either, going 8 for 35 with nine whiffs and a 707 OPS. However, most people feel he will open the season at second base.

Will Brennan is another player that needs to start showing something. Brennan came up during the stretch drive in 2022 going 15 for 42 with a HR. That followed a minor league season in which he hit .314 with an 850 OPS. That got people excited.

In the two years since, he’s had over 800 big league at-bats and put up numbers of .308/.377/685. That’s a below average OPS. He’s been solid during the spring, going 9 for 34 with a couple of homers and an 806 OPS.

What would we like to see from Brennan? More patience. He seems to swing at the first pitch a lot and if you don’t have a lot of pop you need to be able to draw walks. Singles’ hitters who don’t walk are very replaceable.

Bo Naylor doesn’t have to worry about making the team, he’ll be the primary catcher, but it remains to be seen what kind of hitter he will be in the bigs. In the second half of ’23, Naylor hit .252 with 10 home runs and an 893 OPS.

His strikeout to walk ratio was 35:25.

Last season, he hit .201 and that ratio was 122:29. Which hitter is he going to be? This spring he has gone 8 for 37 and has drawn three walks with seven punchouts.

For a team that seems to have offensive questions, it would be great if Naylor is a viable hitter. And it would be great for Naylor because 2023 draftee Cooper Ingle will start the year at Akron and is showing signs he can swing the bat.

These guys are on the spot both now and for the first month or two of the season. Can any of them emerge for the Guardians

Looking At Guardians’ Battles With Just Over Two Weeks Left

When spring training started for the Cleveland Guardians, there were a few position battles to watch, and the makeup of the starting rotation was unstable. With the exhibition slate about half over and the regular season starting in a little over two weeks, here is an update.

Second base. We think the front office was hoping rookie Juan Brito would take the spot, although others figured Gabriel Arias would get a good shot since he is out of options.

Brito has struggled to date, going 2 for 21 with seven strikeouts, but two homers. More than likely, we will go back to AAA to start the year. Most insiders think Arias will be the opening day starter, but he hasn’t set the world on fire, going 6 for 24 with just one walk.

Perhaps the guy who should get the gig is Tyler Freeman (8 for 19 with 3 doubles and a home run). We like Freeman, who has always hit in the minors, and last year played mostly in centerfield, and we will get to that later.

Our opinion? We think we know what Arias is. He has some pop in his bat but doesn’t make enough contact. Sometimes, the front office ignores evidence.

Rightfield/Outfield. Steven Kwan is the leftfielder. Now it gets complicated. Lane Thomas will be somewhere in the outfield on an everyday basis. The Guardians were no doubt hoping Chase DeLauter could be a factor, but injuries got in the way again.

Going into camp, the hope was rightfield would be a platoon of Will Brennan and Jhonkensy Noel. We aren’t a fan of the former because singles hitters who don’t walk are kind of useless.

And our concern about Noel is the swing and miss in his game, and he has fanned 10 times in 26 plate appearances this spring.

If Arias wins the 2B job, does Freeman become involved here as the platoon partner for Brennan? We think Freeman is a hitter (Bo Naylor is another) who didn’t mesh with Chris Valaika last season, and perhaps he is getting back to his natural swing/approach at the plate.

A long shot would be Johnathan Rodriguez, who had a cup of coffee with the big club last year. He is just 3 for 15 and a home run, but has walked seven times.

Starting rotation. Coming into camp, Tanner Bibee and newcomer Luis Ortiz were the only locks. Through three appearances in Arizona, Gavin Williams looks like he did as a rookie and seems to have sewn up a spot. Williams has fanned 16 in eight innings, allowing just five hits and a single run.

Ben Lively has had three solid starts and would seem to be the fourth starter. The hope was Triston McKenzie would claim the fifth spot but walked five batters in an outing and gave up seven hits in 3.2 innings yesterday. His WHIP is 2.21.

Who gets that spot? Joey Cantillo has been starting but has walked six hitters in six innings. On the other hand, Logan Allen has been strong, giving up just one run in 10.2 innings, striking out 10 and more importantly walking only two and only allowing one home run.

Rookie Doug Nikhazy is the sleeper, although we would expect him to open at Columbus. The southpaw has pitched seven innings allowing just one hit thus far. However, Allen has faced the more experienced hitters thus far.

The lack of minor league options though probably puts McKenzie on the roster anyway. Perhaps he’s used as a mop up option until he can find the strike zone.

The Guardians always seem to paint themselves in a corner with these players who have no options left. We would like to see them trust their judgment a little earlier in the process.

Guardians Survive And Advance

It had been since 1997 that the Cleveland baseball team won an elimination game when they beat the Florida Marlins in Game 6 of the World Series.

But they won two this week. Trailing the Detroit Tigers, two game to one Thursday night, they won 5-4 to force a deciding game five, and then won at home yesterday, 7-3 to advance to the League Championship Series for a sixth time, the third time against the New York Yankees.

They have lost the previous two matchups against the Bronx Bombers, but defeated Seattle in 1995, Baltimore in 1997, and Toronto in 2016.

So many heroes in this series, primarily their big acquisition at the trade deadline, Lane Thomas, who went 6 for 19 in the series, driving in nine runs. His three-run shot in Game 1 got the Guards off on the right foot, and the grand slam in the deciding game was ultimately the deciding blow.

Steven Kwan went back to first half Kwan, going 11 for 21 with two walks. He had a trio of three hit games in the series.

David Fry sent the series back home in game four, with a go ahead two run homer and a squeeze bunt to score an important insurance run.

And of course, as it has been all season long, the bullpen was unbelievable. We said before the series it was likely Cleveland only needed four innings from the starters, and out of 132 outs recorded by the pitching staff, 60 of them came from Cade Smith, Hunter Gaddis, Tim Herrin, and of course, Emmanuel Clase.

But there were unsung heroes as well.

Brayan Rocchio had a tremendous series, going 6 for 16, and was sparking with the glove. So much for those wanting others to handle the position in the playoffs.

Andres Gimenez was having a terrible series but started the five-run rally yesterday with a single and then scored an insurance run in the ninth inning.

And what about Eli Morgan. Because Steven Vogt went to the bullpen after two innings, he was running out of relievers. Gaddis was gassed after throwing 32 pitches Thursday and 30 more in the fifth game, so Morgan, who didn’t pitch in high leverage situations often, came in the 7th and got two big strikeouts.

The other three teams in the championship series are Major League Baseball’s dream, coming from the mega-markets of New York and Los Angeles. And then there are the Guardians, whose payroll is less than half of each of the other three franchises in baseball’s final four.

The Yankees are the American League’s highest scoring team at 5.03 runs per contest, over a half a run over the Guardians’ 4.4 figure. Pitching wise, New York is fourth, behind Seattle, Detroit, and Cleveland.

The key for Cleveland pitching will be to handle the dynamic duo of Juan Soto and Aaron Judge. If you can control them, you have a fighting chance. It’s a bit complicated because Giancarlo Stanton got hot in the Division Series, going 6 for 16 with a big home run.

And can the Guardians defeat Gerrit Cole, who looks like he is back to his Cy Young form in the KC series.

But remember, the Yanks won only two more regular season games than the Guardians, and although we are sure at least in the beginning of the series he will limit the usage of his four main relievers to just one inning, that of course means, the starters still only have to give the skipper about 15 outs.

As usual, where will the runs come for the Guards? Can Kwan, Thomas, and Rocchio continue their hot hitting? Can the Naylors provide some pop? And what to do with rightfield?

In a seven-game series, there is a little less pressure in game one. All the Guardians have to do is win four out of seven. If they do, a seventh American League pennant will be flying over Progressive Field.

A 1-0 Lead And More Thoughts On The Guardians/Tigers Series

We were concerned about the Cleveland Guardians’ offense coming into the American League Division Series against the Detroit Tigers, but they showed us at least in the first inning yesterday.

The first five Guards reached base and all scored as a result of an error, Josh Naylor’s single and Lane Thomas’ three run homer. A 5-0 lead in the first? How sweet was that.

We felt going into the series that Steven Vogt might only need four innings out of his starters, and indeed, Tanner Bibee gave him 4-2/3 frames before giving up a single to Parker Meadows with two out, and the skipper went to the bullpen.

And at least in game one, the relievers were as dominant as they were in the regular season, covering 4.1 innings without allowing a hit.

Cade Smith looked like he did in his big-league debut, striking out all four hitters he faced and Tim Herrin, Hunter Gaddis, and of course, Emmanuel Clase each threw an inning to give the Guardians a 1-0 lead in the series.

Another thought we had about this series is it reminds us of when the Indians took on Boston in the late 90’s, and the Red Sox’ pitching staff was led by Pedro Martinez. Martinez would pitch twice in the series, and you had the feeling Cleveland had to win any game the Hall of Famer would pitch.

Of course, we are referring to the likely Cy Young Award winner this year in the AL, Tarik Skubal. The left-hander will pitch in game two and game five if the series goes on that long.

Skubal isn’t quite Martinez, but he did go 18-4 with a 2.39 ERA and 228 strikeouts in 192 frames. He hasn’t allowed more than a run in a start since September 6th against Oakland when he allowed two runs on nine hits in 5.2 innings.

Cleveland hitters will have their work carved out for them tomorrow at Progressive Field, particularly if the sun is shining and the late afternoon shadows will descend on the diamond.

The announcement of the roster for this series also caused some eyebrow raising. Although it wasn’t a surprise Nick Sandlin was left off the roster because of his propensity to give up home runs, and Ben Lively didn’t make it because the Guards only need three starters, it is a bit of shock that Alex Cobb will start game three.

Cobb hasn’t pitched in a game since September 1st due to fingernail and blister issues, and if Cleveland loses game two, you are giving him the ball in a pivotal game. Again, we know the Guardians only need three or four innings from a starter, and they will have Gavin Williams and/or Joey Cantillo to back him up, but it’s a bit head scratching.

We have always thought the even numbered games in a short series were most important until you get to the last contest, and tomorrow’s game is no different. If the Guardians can beat Skubal, they have command of the series. We aren’t saying it is won because we remember what happened in 2017.

The pressure will be on starter Matthew Boyd, a former Tiger, to keep the Detroit offense in check and either give the Guardians’ bats a chance to scrape out a run or two or get Skubal out of the game early by making him throw a lot of pitches.

With the off day again on Tuesday, no doubt Vogt will go to his bullpen early again.

All yesterday’s win means is the Guardians will not get swept and there will be two games in Detroit. We would be surprised if the Cleveland bats had another outburst like in game one.

Guards Are Winning. Doesn’t Mean There Aren’t Worries.

The Cleveland Guardians have one of the best records in baseball. It depends on the day, but there are times they are the game’s winningest team, but they are in the conversation with the New York Yankees, Baltimore Orioles, Philadelphia Phillies, and Los Angeles Dodgers.

On the other hand, they are just two games ahead of Minnesota and four ahead of Kansas City in the AL Central, and the schedule is a gauntlet through the end of the year. On this trip alone they play the NL Central leaders in Milwaukee and the Yanks.

Right after Labor Day, they make their last extended road trip of the season, with visits to Kansas City and Los Angeles to take on the Dodgers.

The point is, even with all the success they have achieved this season, there is some worry as to what happens over the next six weeks.

We have been concerned about the starting pitching all season long, and although Matthew Boyd and Alex Cobb both pitched well in their last start, it’s still a worry, mostly because they simply don’t pitch enough innings.

Neither of the veterans was able to finish six innings, which isn’t a rarity for the rotation. The last time a Guardians’ starter went six innings was Gavin Williams last Saturday against the Twins, the game that broke the seven-game losing streak.

Since the All-Star break, a period of 27 games (1/6th of a season), Cleveland pitchers have completed six innings just three times. The last game a Guards’ starter went seven? The last game we could find was May 10th, when Carlos Carrasco went that long vs. the White Sox.

We know starters aren’t expected to go nine innings anymore, but pitching six shouldn’t be an anomaly. Yes, the pitching staff ranks 2nd in the AL in ERA, but the reason for that is the bullpen, and right now, Steven Vogt is down to three guys are haven’t started to leak oil–Cade Smith, Hunter Gaddis, and of course, Emmanuel Clase.

Even getting six innings consistently out of a starter is a dream right now.

The other reason for concern is the offense. While pitching wins in the playoffs, you have to score runs in the regular season, and of the teams competing for the league’s best record and in the Central Division, the Guards have scored the least amount of runs.

Right now, the Guardians have the opposite of a top to bottom lineup. Among players with over 150 plate appearances, they have four hitters with above average OPS: Jose Ramirez, Josh Naylor, Steven Kwan, and David Fry.

Two of those hitters, Kwan and Fry, have been slumping since the Midsummer Classic.

Kwan had a .352 batting average and 920 OPS in the first half and had us dreaming of the first Cleveland batting champ since Bobby Avila in 1954. So far in the second half, he’s hitting .224 (.291 on base vs. .407 prior) and 646 OPS.

He seems to be hitting a lot of fly balls now, which could mean he is selling out for power? But a return to the hitter we saw before the All-Star game could be dynamic for the Guards’ offense.

Fry made the American League squad on the basis of an incredible April and May, in which he hit .352 with 8 HR and 27 RBI. Since June 1st, he’s batted .216 with 4 dingers and 15 ribbies. He still is killing lefties, with .301 average and 1047 OPS against southpaws.

He has a 666 OPS vs. RHP but continues to bat 5th when he plays.

The problem for Vogt and the organization is they don’t seem to have a lot of alternatives.

Jhonkensy Noel has provided pop, this week hitting three homers, but in the last three games, he’s 0 for 8 with six whiffs. Lane Thomas has been ineffective since coming over from Washington going 6 for 50 with 21 strikeouts.

Daniel Schneemann in the last 28 days: .156 BA and 220/200/420 splits. Will Brennan has hit since coming back from AAA, but he is what he is, basically a singles hitter that doesn’t walk (301 OBP, 391 slugging).

Can the offense find help? Can they score enough down the stretch, or will it continue to be a huge load on the bullpen?

One of the best records in baseball? Yes. That doesn’t mean there aren’t concerns.

Guardians’ Deadline Moves: OK, But Also A Bit Disappointing

The baseball trading deadline came and went and the Cleveland Guardians, who have the best record in the American League weren’t satisfied with their current roster and made a couple of moves for the last two months of the season.

They added OF Lane Thomas from the Washington Nationals for a trio of prospects, the most recognizable being Jose Tena, who has appeared in the big leagues, but the highest ranked player was Alex Clemmey, who was a second round pick a year ago.

Recently, we’ve discussed how rightfield has been an issue for the Guardians, and the acquisition of Thomas is an upgrade at the spot. First, he’s been very good vs. left-handed pitching in his career, a lifetime 888 OPS against them.

Last year, he belted 28 homers for Washington and so far, this season had a 738 OPS and had 28 stolen bases. Over the last two months, his OPS was over 800. He didn’t have a great strikeout to walk ratio a year ago (176:36) but has improved in both areas in 2024, dropping his K rate from 25.8% to 21.1% and raising his walk rate from 5.3% to 9.4%.

Yes, rightfield was a need, but the biggest area the Guardians needed to improve was the starting pitching and they basically went with two lottery tickets.

We know the only starting pitchers of consequence traded at the deadline were Jack Flaherty, who the Tigers weren’t likely going to deal to a division foe, Yusei Kikuchi, and Paul Blackburn, who has made one start since May 10th.

Obviously, the hope is Matthew Boyd, who signed a few weeks ago coming off elbow surgery, and Alex Cobb, who was picked up from the Giants at the deadline. Cobb had hip surgery and shoulder issues and has made six rehab starts this year, pitching a total of 18.1 innings.

Getting Cobb is a spring training move, low risk, high reward. In the middle of a pennant race? It’s meh.

Cobb is 36 years old and did make the All-Star team a year ago with San Francisco, pitching 151 innings with a 3.87 ERA. Again, neither Boyd nor Cobb have thrown a pitch at the major league level this season.

And that’s what the front office is banking on to bolster a shaky rotation for the last two months of the regular season and hopefully, a playoff run.

We understand the frustration. Yes, the Guardians have a solid farm system, recently restocked with the first overall pick in the recent amateur draft, Travis Bazzana. But the success rate of prospects is still 50/50 at best.

Look at George Valera, who was a top 100 prospect by pretty much every ranking service in 2022 and 2023. He’s now played 173 games at the AAA level and his OPS is 748. Had the Guardians moved him after ’22, they likely could have got a haul.

Now? He’s another failed prospect.

We understand the importance of prospects, especially for a franchise that cannot sustain a $200 million payroll, but there are two things at play here.

First, this group of Guardians has the best record in the AL and one of top records in the game. If there is ever a year to go out of the organization’s comfort zone and move a highly rated prospect, it’s this season.

Second is 1948. It’s been 76 seasons since the franchise has won a World Series. And the fans are coming out. They love this team.

Hopefully, when the front office scratches off the lottery tickets of Boyd and Cobb, they come up winners. Because if the rotation continues to struggle and causes the bullpen’s collapse, they should have to answer why they didn’t do more in the last week.