Why Not Go Back To Winston?

The Cleveland Browns are still looking for a veteran starting quarterback. Slowly, the options have been reduced by other teams signing younger, experienced passers in the first round of free agency.

It appears that the Browns miscalculated the market and seemed to be settled on Kirk Cousins, whom they didn’t think Atlanta would pay a roster bonus and thus he would be released. But apparently, Atlanta isn’t going to do that.

So, in waiting for Cousins, Cleveland could’ve traded a third-round pick for Geno Smith, or signed Justin Fields or Daniel Jones in free agency. They didn’t, so if the Browns want a veteran signal caller, it looks like Russell Wilson, Carson Wentz, Joe Flacco, or someone else of that ilk.

We ask this question…why not Jameis Winston?

Yes, we know Winston has a history of throwing interceptions. And he ranked second in the league in interception percentage last season trailing only the Colts’ Anthony Richardson, who appears to be losing his job.

But hear us out. Remember when Winston became the starting quarterback last season after an injury to the starter, and head coach Kevin Stefanski gave up play-calling responsibilities the same week?

Winston never got a chance to run the offense that he came to Cleveland to run. An offense built on running the ball and the play-action pass. Instead, he played in a pass happy attack, one that had him throwing over 40 passes in a game five times, including 58 throws in the loss to Denver.

Then remember the first year Winston started in New Orleans, when the Saints got off to a 5-2 start before he was injured. Running Sean Payton’s offense, the most passes he threw in a game was 35, and he only had more than one interception in one game, when he went 11 for 22 for 111 yards in a 26-7 loss to Carolina.

For that season, the former first overall pick completed 59% of his throws and had 14 touchdowns and just 3 picks.

And we know Winston still has an incredible arm. Instead of signing a guy with diminished arm strength like Wilson, why not go with a passer who still can make all the throws. And in a locker room that seems to need leadership amongst the players, we know the leadership Winston provides.

Also, if Payton can coach the turnovers out of Winston, why can’t Stefanski?

We also think Winston would be a good mentor for whatever quarterback the Browns take in the first round, and we believe they are going to do just that.

Plus, Jerry Jeudy became a Pro Bowl wide receiver when Winston took over as quarterback, and we also are aware the QB wasn’t thrilled at times that wide receivers (Elijah Moore) didn’t try to break up passes that were thrown in harm’s way.

Look, we know it’s not going to happen. It doesn’t seem like Stefanski had a connection with Jameis and no media outlet has reported anything about a reunion between the two parties.

But if the picks were the problem, Flacco would have had the highest interception percentage in the NFL in 2023 had he thrown enough passes to qualify. The league leader was Mac Jones at 3.5%, Flacco’s was 3.9%.

We would like to see how Winston would fare in a run based, throw off play action attack like Stefanski likes to use. Maybe he would still put the ball in precarious situations, but maybe he’d hit on some big plays and give the Browns an air attack that can stretch the field.

For whatever reason, the Browns’ front office and coaching staff isn’t considering Jameis Winston as an option.

Regarding The Browns’ Offense…

In the off-season, the Cleveland Browns replaced offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt with Ken Dorsey, and the reason given for the move was Dorsey was more familiar working with dual threat quarterback, having worked with Josh Allen in Buffalo and Cam Newton in Carolina.

It was part of the Browns’ quest to “unlock” Deshaun Watson and have him return to the guy who had passer ratings over 100 in Houston from 2017 to 2020.

Since he joined the Browns, Watson’s highest rating was the 84.3 he achieved last season, in which he played just six games. This year, after two contests, his rating is just 63.0.

Kevin Stefanski and Van Pelt ran a good offense as well. In terms of yardage, the Vikings’ offense in Stefanski’s year as offensive coordinator ranked 16th in yards gained, and with the Browns, the attack was solid, with ranks ranging from 14th to 16th.

Dorsey’s offenses in Buffalo were 2nd and 4th in his two years as OC, but remember, he was let go last season during the year.

Both like to run the football. Stefanski had Dalvin Cook in Minnesota and then Nick Chubb in Cleveland, and until 2023, those teams were in the top ten in the league in running the ball.

So were Dorsey’s attacks in his two years in Buffalo.

The biggest difference we think is who does the running in each offense. Dorsey had quarterbacks who ran for over 700 yards three times in the ten seasons he has been quarterback coach or offensive coordinator. The QBs ran for more than 500 yards in two more years.

Watson ran for more than 400 yards in three of his four seasons in Houston. But he is really the first dual threat passer that Stefanski has handled.

The quarterbacks Stefanski had in Minnesota and Cleveland have all done well. Here are their passer ratings (although that stat just measures passing efficiency):

2017 Minnesota QB coach: Case Keenum 98.3
2018 Minnesota QB coach: Kirk Cousins 99.7
2019 Minnesota offensive coordinator: Cousins 107.4
2020 Browns Head Coach: Baker Mayfield 95.9
2021 Browns Head Coach: Mayfield (83.1), Keenum (91.3)
2022 Browns Head Coach: Jacoby Brissett (88.9), Watson (79.1)
2023 Browns Head Coach: Joe Flacco (90.2), Watson (84.3)

For Cousins, the ’19 season was his best as a pro, as was the case for Mayfield’s 2020 campaign, Brissett’s ’22 year, and for Keenum as well in ’17. For Flacco, it was his best season since 2014 with the Ravens.

Only Watson hasn’t thrived under Kevin Stefanski. Stefanski likes to work in a lot of play action, and Watson’s best (and longest) completion on Sunday was off a fake and resulted in a 30-yard pass to Jerry Jeudy.

Perhaps that’s what the basis of the offense should be right now. By all measures, the vertical passing game is disappearing in the NFL as defenses have adjusted.

We also think the coaching staff and front office would like Watson to cut down on running the ball himself unless absolutely necessary. Heck, in QB sneak situations, Cleveland put Jameis Winston in to take the snaps.

The point is this–Charles Barkley once said, “if it’s not broke, don’t break it”. Maybe that’s what the Cleveland Browns did with their offense. It’s something to keep an eye on week to week.

Evaluating Baker So Far.

A certain media member in town consistently refers to Baker Mayfield as “statistically the worst quarterback in the NFL”. While that is true, you have to remember that the statistic he refers to is really called “passer rating”.

The stat measures basically three things: Completion percentage, average yards per attempt, and how many touchdowns and interceptions you throw. You can pile up incredible numbers in those categories while you are losing a game 28-7.

The point is it is not a true measurement of how great a quarterback is, it does measure how efficient you are as a passer.

The current NFL passing leader is Ryan Tannehill, followed by Kirk Cousins, Drew Brees, Lamar Jackson, and Russell Wilson.

Brees is a future Hall of Famer, while Jackson and Wilson are the favorites for league MVP. The other two?

Cousins was also in the top five a year ago, and the QB who was 6th was Case Keenum, who is no longer a starter in the NFL.

As a frame of reference, the others in the top five last season were Ben Roethlisberger, Andrew Luck, Matt Ryan, and Aaron Rodgers. Four excellent signal callers.

Looking at Mayfield, if his interceptions were cut in half, his passer rating would increase from his current 77.6 to 85.3, moving him from 33rd to 24th in the NFL.

So, we were thinking, rating aside, where would the Browns’ quarterback rank in the league based on just our opinion, devoid of any statistics.

AFC East: Tom Brady, Josh Allen, Sam Darnold, Ryan Fitzpatrick. It would be presumptuous to put Mayfield ahead of Brady, but we’d take him over anyone else, including Allen, who is still more dangerous with his legs than his arm.

AFC North: Jackson, Andy Dalton, Duck Hodges. As we said, Jackson is the co-MVP favorite, and until Roethlisberger retires, we would take him as well.

AFC South: Tannehill, DeShaun Watson, Jacoby Brissett, Gardner Minshew. Watson is spectacular, still wish the Browns had taken him in 2017. Otherwise, we’ll take Mayfield over the rest.

AFC West: Patrick Mahomes, Derek Carr, Philip Rivers, Drew Lock? Rivers is a borderline Canton enshrinee, but has been bad this year, Mahomes is last year’s MVP and a top two or three QB in the game today. We would prefer Mayfield to Carr, Rivers, and Lock right now.

NFC East: Dak Prescott, Carson Wentz, Daniel Jones, Dwayne Haskins Jr. Although Wentz has struggled this year, and we aren’t huge fans of Prescott, we acknowledge they should both rank ahead of the Cleveland QB.

NFC North: Rodgers, Cousins, Mitch Trubisky, Matthew Stafford. The first two have to be ahead, white Trubisky is clearly behind. Stafford puts up a lot of stats, but doesn’t win. For the sake of argument, we’ll take him over Baker.

NFC South: Brees, Ryan, Jameis Winston, Kyle Allen. No question here, Brees and Ryan are ahead of Mayfield.

NFC West: Jimmy Garoppolo, Wilson, Jared Goff, Kyler Murray. We would say only Murray would be behind his former teammate at Oklahoma.

That would rank Mayfield 16th among the quarterbacks in the league, and you can make a case he could be a little higher.

That’s why talk of being a draft bust is ridiculous. Some players start off great, then have a learning curve, and then wind up being great players.

If at this time next year, Mayfield has shown more signs of regression, then perhaps his leash will be shorter. But let’s wait until that is seen.

Browns Should Draft QB At One, No Matter What.

Well, the Super Bowl was held last Sunday and that means the real football season for fans of the Cleveland Browns is here…

The NFL Draft.

The next two and a half months will be filled with speculation as to which one of the quarterbacks entering the NFL this fall does GM John Dorsey like the best.

And make no mistake about it, the Browns should and in our opinion, will draft a signal caller when the draft meeting opens on April 26th.

There are many fans with the thought if Dorsey can sign (or trade for, depending on what Washington does) Kirk Cousins, then they can use the first and fourth overall picks on other needs.

We feel that would be a mistake.

Cousins has had a decent NFL career, starting 57 games and compiling a 26-30-1 record in those starts. Yes, we know win/loss record isn’t a very good way of judging QBs.

The former fourth round pick out of Michigan State has a career 93.7 passer rating. completing 65.5% of his throws, with 99 touchdowns, compared to 55 interceptions.

His average yards per attempt was 7.6 in 2017, ranking in a 9th place tie with Ben Roethlisburger in that category.

But is Cousins one of the best in the NFL?

We would rank him just outside of the top ten, which compared to the play the Browns have had at the position over the last 20 years, would make him Otto Graham.

However, we would not pass on a chance for greatness because we had a guy who might be better than average.

We have no idea if any of the quarterbacks coming into the NFL this spring will be great, but we know that Kirk Cousins isn’t great, nor will he ever be.

Here is who we would rank ahead of the potential free agent passer: Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Roethlisburger, Drew Brees, Philip Rivers, Matt Ryan, Cam Newton, Matthew Stafford, and Russell Wilson.

And by the end of next year, you may have no choice but to add Carson Wentz and Jared Goff. Also, if Andrew Luck is healthy, he’s yet another addition to the list.

The Browns would be better served seeing if Josh Rosen, Sam Darnold, or Baker Mayfield can become elite NFL starters than signing Cousins and not adding a QB at the top of this year’s draft.

What if one of those passers became another Rodgers?

Signing Cousins would mean a four or five year commitment to him, which doesn’t work for drafting your future franchise quarterback with the first overall pick. That’s why we would stay away from him.

We would prefer Dorsey draft his guy at #1 and then stash him away for at least a full season, and maybe another half season beyond that. Let the rookie learn the game, so when he does go in there, he’s as prepared as can be.

Bring in a veteran (not Josh McCown, please) who can hold down the spot and give you a professional performance for a year or two. Perhaps someone like Tyrod Taylor or yes, Chase Daniel, a player Dorsey is said to like.

Hopefully, you never are in this position again, and that’s why you have to take a QB. We would favor taking the guy with the highest floor, or the player with the least “bust” factor.

But you have to take the chance to have greatness. Use the first pick on a quarterback.