Tag: kipnis

The K in Kipnis Should Be For Key

The Cleveland Indians’ offense was inconsistent at best last season.  They finished in the top half of the American League in runs scored (7th), but they scored three runs or less in exactly half of their games, going 25-56 when that occurred.

This means when they reached four runs, their record was 60-21, an outstanding mark.  So, if the Tribe can cut back on some of those games where they score under four runs, their record should improve.

As a comparison, the Indians’ main rivals in the Central Division, the Detroit Tigers, scored three runs or less in 63 games, 18 less than Cleveland.  The AL West champs, the Angels had this occur 65 times.

Kansas City, who most think have a mediocre offense, couldn’t get to the four run mark 79 times.

How do the Indians improve the scoring?  Well, we are sure they are hoping for Brandon Moss, acquired from Oakland this winter, will help by providing more pop, having hit 25 home runs in ’14 and 30 dingers in ’13.

However, the key to the Tribe scoring more runs in 2015 is Jason Kipnis.

In 2013, Kipnis made his first all-star game appearance, hitting .284 with 17 homers and an 818 OPS.  Last year, he got off to a slow start and battled injuries, his numbers dropped to just .240 with six home runs, none after the end of July.

In fact, in the season’s last two months, Kipnis batted a paltry .235 with only five runs batted in.  Despite that, Terry Francona showed a lot of confidence in him by continuing to put him in the middle of the lineup.

Obviously, the Indians need the soon to be 28-year-old to be more like the guy who played in 2013 if the offense is to improve.  And at that age, he should be in the prime of his career, plus his new six-year, $52 million contract kicks in this season, so Cleveland owes him a lot of cash over the next five seasons.

To make it simple, if Kipnis isn’t an above average offensive player over the next three to four seasons, the Indians will be in a lot of trouble.

He got paid off of the ’13 season, but his second season in the big leagues (2012) wasn’t outstanding either, as his OPS was just 714.  His average was .257 and although he did bang 14 long balls, he only had 40 extra base hits.  He accumulated 57 in 2013.

So, there should be some concern that last year wasn’t a total fluke.

Kipnis walked 76 times in ’13, but just 50 times last season, and the injuries shouldn’t be an excuse there, unless something was wrong with his eyes.  He swung at a lot of pitches out of the strike zone and struggled with men on base, hitting just .221 with runners on.  He hit .300 in this situation the prior year.

He also struggled at Progressive Field, batting just .218 there last season, compared to .288 in ’13.

Many fans talk about Nick Swisher and Michael Bourn as players the Indians need to be productive to make a run in 2015, but the simpler answer is a return by Kipnis to something close to his 2013 numbers.

If he can, Francona’s lineup should be much more productive.  If he can’t, the Tribe will need to do something about a guy they owe a lot of cash to in the coming years.

MW

 

Young Vets Ready to Make Impact for Tribe

Much of the optimism for this year’s Cleveland Indians has centered on the money spent by the Dolan ownership, which resulted in the signing of free agents Nick Swisher, Mark Reynolds, Michael Bourn and Brett Myers.

However, another reason for the Tribe’s improvement offensively will come from three young players who have been on fans’ radar for more than a year.  These three, 2B Jason Kipnis, LF Michael Brantley, and 3B Lonnie Chisenhall are poised to take the step into being better than average players at their position.

Kipnis, who will be 26 next week, burst on the scene when he joined the team half way through the 2011 season, posting a 841 OPS in 150 at bats.  He got off to a solid start to the 2012 season, hitting .280 with 8 HR and 30 RBI through the end of May.

The pitchers adjusted after that and Kipnis hit just .246 with 6 HR and 46 RBI the rest of the season.  He didn’t slug over .400 in any month for the balance of the year.

Besides the different way he was being pitches, fatigue also may have been a factor because it was difficult to give Kipnis a day off because the Indians had very little depth.  This year, that shouldn’t be a factor.

The “JK Kid” has a great track record of hitting in the minors (863 OPS in almost 1000 at bats), so we feel confident he will bounce back and more resemble the ’11 edition of Kipnis rather than the guy who struggled the last four months  in 2012.

Brantley has spent time in the big leagues every year since 2009, so it seems like he should be older than 26, which he will turn in May.  He had his best season last year, hitting .288, 6 HR, 60 RBI, 750 OPS, but has steadily improved in each of the last three seasons, and at his age that should continue in ’13.

His improvement has come in both his on base percentage and slugging percentage, so it wouldn’t be a stretch if he could get the OPS over the 800 mark this season, which would make him a very good offensive player.  He had 47 extra base hits in 2012, and as he gets stronger, it’s not out of the realm of possibility that some of the 37 doubles he had last year start to fly over the fence.

That extra base hit number represents an increase of 12 from the year before.  It wouldn’t be a shock if Brantley had close to 60 extra base knocks in 2013, figure about 45 doubles and 15 homers.

Chisenhall, 24, is finally free of the managers’ infatuation with defense at the hot corner and will get his shot at being the everyday third baseman.  He has 12 HRs in 350 big league at bats, which figures to 17 dingers in 500 plate appearances.

His struggles against southpaws are overblown because he’s had only 88 at bats vs. lefties in his brief time in the bigs, and still has managed five homers in those chances.  That’s not to say we wouldn’t give him a day off against a guy like C.C. Sabathia, but he should get an opportunity to play virtually everyday.

He’s had a monster spring, which doesn’t always translate, but he has a smooth left-handed swing, and seems to be more selective at the plate.  That may be because Terry Francona basically told him the job was his to lose and he relaxed at the dish.

These three guys, along with the free agent acquisitions, are the reason the Indians’ offense will be much better than the past two seasons.  They will allow Francona to play most days with tough outs throughout the lineup.

American League teams need seven out of nine guys to be able to provide quality at bats.  The Tribe has that in 2013.

KM