Keeping Lindor Should Be Tribe’s Priority

Earlier this week, Major League Baseball announced a television broadcast contract extension with Fox, which will pay each team an additional $24 million starting in 2022.

Coincidentally, the Indians’ Francisco Lindor is eligible for free agency following the 2021 season. So, we’ve found a good way for the Indians to spend that extra TV money.

We have pounded the drum on this for the past few years. If you can keep Lindor with the Indians for a total of at least ten seasons, or through the 2024 campaign (when he will be 31 years old), we will become universally recognized as the best position player ever to don a Cleveland baseball uniform.

Lindor currently has accumulated 23.9 WAR over his four years with the Indians. The all time franchise leader is Napoleon Lajoie with 79.9. The recently turned 25 year old shortstop had 7.9 WAR in 2018, and at his age, it would not be a stretch to think he will improve for the next several years.

So, let’s say he averages 9.0 WAR over the next six years. That would get him to 77.9 for his career, very close to Lajoie’s total, and ahead of Tris Speaker for second place.

However, this statistic has Kenny Lofton 4th in club history. We loved Lofton as a player, and believe he should have received serious Hall of Fame consideration, but he’s not the fourth best position player in team history.

Let’s look at traditional statistics.

Lindor has 665 base hits currently, getting 183 a year ago. If he averages 180 over the next six years, he would have 1745 knocks, which would rank 5th on the Indians’ all time list.

Home runs? The switch-hitting Lindor has 98 dingers to date. Averaging 30 through the 2024 season would give him 278 homers, second in club history behind recently inducted Hall of Famer Jim Thome. Keep in mind, Lindor has hit more than 30 in each of the last two years.

As for RBIs, Frankie is sitting at 310, getting 92 last year. If he averages 90 through ’24, that would give him 850, tying him for 7th with Ken Keltner in Indians’ annals.

Our guess is Lindor will be moved down in the batting order as soon as this year to take advantage of his pop, so that estimate might be conservative.

And in runs scored, Lindor has 377 runs, scoring 129 in 2018. Averaging 100 per year for the next six seasons would give him 977 tallies, putting him 3rd on the Tribe’s all time list.

So, as you can see, keeping Lindor for ten seasons puts him near the top in most of the major categories in Indians’ history. And we were conservative with some of the numbers because, so he might rank higher.

Keeping him beyond that, or dare say, for his entire career would probably put him at the top of those lists.

Also, at 25, and with just three full big league seasons under his belt, he has three top 10 MVP finishes.

We understand it takes two to tango, and Lindor has to want to stay here for awhile. But we say make it worth his while.

The big contracts this off-season will be Bryce Harper and Manny Machado. Once those deals are agreed to, the Tribe front office should have a good idea of what it will take to sign the shortstop.

We don’t want to hear about being a small to mid market in this case. Lindor is one of the top ten, if not five players in baseball. If you have to go over your comfort level to keep him, you have to do it.

You drafted and signed this guy, and watched him become a great player. They need to make sure he never plays anywhere else.

And your fan base deserves a player who never plays anywhere else too.

Tribe Fans Get To Celebrate A Hall Of Famer

It has been so long since a position player who played the majority of his career as a Cleveland Indian was voted into the Baseball Hall of Fame by the writers, you would have had to have seen Lou Boudreau patrolling shortstop for the Tribe in the 1940’s.

And you thought the 52 year championship drought was a long time.

Boudreau was inducted into Cooperstown in 1970, so it has been 48 years until Jim Thome was voted yesterday into the Hall.

And make no mistake, Thome is a Cleveland Indian through and through.

The powerful left-handed hitter played 1399 of his games (out of 2543) as a Tribesman, hit 337 of his 612 home runs as an Indian, and knocked in 939 of his 1699 runs here.

For comparison, his next highest total for another team would be 529 games, 134 homers, and 362 RBIs as a Chicago White Sox player.

Thome is 8th all time in home runs, 26th in runs batted in, 7th in walks, 23rd in slugging percentage, and 18th in OPS.

Among the active players he is ahead of in the latter statistic are Miguel Cabrera and Albert Pujols, who everyone regards as the most feared offensive players of today.

For those of you who still hold a grudge against Thome for leaving via free agency following the 2002 season, get over yourselves. You witnessed greatness, and you should appreciate that at the very least.

Think about it, from the team Boudreau left the Indians after the 1950 season until Thome made his debut on September 4, 1991, northeast Ohio fans didn’t get a chance to see a truly great player on an everyday basis.

True, we got to see Frank Robinson at the end of his career, Dave Winfield too, and Roberto Alomar spend three seasons at Jacobs Field, but all three had their best year’s elsewhere.

NOTE: Larry Doby played in Cleveland until 1955 and spent the ’58 season here too, but he was voted into Cooperstown by the Veterans’ Committee.

Cleveland fans have seen great pitching too, with Gaylord Perry, Dennis Eckersley, and Bert Blyleven taking the mound here for the good guys, but the last hurler who spent the majority of his career here was Bob Lemon, who was inducted in 1976.

Thome was here when Jacobs Field opened in 1994, he was part of the first Indians’ team to make the post-season since 1954. Heck, he caught the pop up that clinched the Central Division title in 1995.

He hit four home runs in that post-season.

He moved from third base to first base in 1997 when the Tribe traded for Matt Williams, and in game five of the ALDS against the Yankees, the deciding game, had a sacrifice bunt (he had only one in the regular season for his entire career) which set up Cleveland’s fourth run in what turned out to be a 4-3 victory.

He also made a diving stop in the field and turned it into a force out.

He’s the Tribe’s all time leader in home runs, walks, strikeouts, and intentional walks.

We hope that someday Thome is joined in Cooperstown by Omar Vizquel, and the Veterans’ Committee will see fit to honor Albert Belle and Kenny Lofton, two other greats from those teams of the 1990’s.

For now, savor the memories that Thome provided Tribe fans. It’s been a long time since the franchise had a Hall of Fame player. So, it shouldn’t be taken lightly.

Will Tribe Make a Move? History Says No.

The Cleveland Indians are heading into the All-Star break in the middle of an important homestand.

They took two of three from Kansas City and now are in the midst of a four game series with the Yankees and finish it off with a three game set with the White Sox.

The Tribe needs to get at least six wins while at Progressive Field.

With the Oakland A’s pulling off a huge trade on the fourth of July, and the Angels and Yankees making minor deals to help their ballclubs, so far the Indians haven’t done anything despite a roster that needs some help if they are going to stay in the post-season race.

The question is will they?

It would go against the pattern of this franchise since the Mark Shapiro regime took over in 2001.

In 2007, a year in which the Indians won the division, the only move made near the trading deadline was to re-acquire OF Kenny Lofton for a minor leaguer. While Lofton helped Cleveland down the stretch, it wasn’t a bold move.

Last season, GM Chris Antonetti dealt another low minor leaguer to St. Louis for left-handed reliever Mark Rzcepczynski, who certainly helped shore up the Tribe bullpen.

The one big move the front office made was in 2011, when Manny Acta’s crew got off to a quick start, Antonetti did make a bold move in dealing his past two first round picks, Drew Pomerantz and Alex White to Colorado for RHP Ubaldo Jimenez.

Jimenez was wildly inconsistent for much of his tenure here, although he was tremendous down the stretch last season as the Indians made the playoffs.

However, the scorecard on the big righty is 2-1/2 seasons in Cleveland, with a half-year of being a stud pitcher. That’s not enough of a return when you give up two first round draft picks, even if they don’t succeed for the organization they were traded to.

As a matter of comparison, the A’s traded two first round picks to obtain Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel, a deal that looks to be a better one than Cleveland made three years ago.

So, if you are hoping the Indians are going to make a big splash at the trade deadline, you are probably going to be disappointed.

If they wanted to make a megadeal, they would have to part with their top prospect, SS Francisco Lindor, and that’s not a move we’d be willing to make for a player who may only be with the Tribe for the next year and a half at best.

However, the Indians still have depth in their system in the middle infield and the bullpen, and have some well regarding pitching prospects in the lower minors.

If they don’t make a move, they are counting on a lot of luck to stay in the race. They will need Nick Swisher to emerge from his three-month slump and for Justin Masterson to suddenly put it all together.

Right now, those things don’t seem likely to happen.

Instead they go out and get a career back up in OF Chris Dickerson from Pittsburgh to help out while Michael Bourn is out. Nothing against Dickerson, but wouldn’t it be better to see what Tyler Holt can do? Holt has some upside, Dickerson has a proven record of mediocrity.

And why not give some of Bourn’s at bats to Ryan Raburn and/or Mike Aviles if you don’t want to give a rookie the bulk of the playing time?

If the Tribe doesn’t stay in contention, they have only themselves to blame because these weaknesses have been visible for at least a month, and the front office has done nothing to address them.

Doing that would be a bold step. The history of the front office is they are only bold sellers, not bold buyers.

How Did We Do–Tribe Will Fall Just Short of Playoffs in ’14

This was orginally posted in April

For every baseball fan, today is a day filled with anticipation. Opening Day will be here tomorrow, and despite the weather from yesterday, baseball will be played at Progressive Field by the end of this week.

Can the Indians repeat their unexpected run to the playoffs (and yes, Kenny Lofton, they did make the playoffs) in 2014? That is the question on all Tribe fans minds this spring.

We believe the AL Central Division race will be highly contested this summer with the defending champion Tigers, Indians, and the Royals all in contention, and we also feel that less than 90 wins will take the title.

All three teams will win between 83-89 games, so Terry Francona’s squad will be in the mix all season long. And because the division will be so close, things like injuries and deadline trades will have a huge factor on how things will turn out.

That said, we believe the Tribe will finish second in the division once again, but this time will fall just short of a post-season spot.

Why? Because the front office just didn’t do enough to offset the losses from this winter, mainly the departure of two starting pitchers, Ubaldo Jimenez and Scott Kazmir.

We agreed with letting both pitchers depart because the contracts they signed were more than we would have paid either hurler based on their past performance, but we believed GM Chris Antonetti would have acquired at least one innings eater to replace the 340 innings that left via free agency.

As we wrote last week, if Danny Salazar and Corey Kluber reach the performance expected of them this season, the loss of two starting pitchers will become a moot point, but that’s a tough leap of faith considering they have combined for less than 300 innings in their career.

The Indians’ offense also sputtered at times last year even though Cleveland finished fourth in the AL in runs scored. Francona could have used another established bat in the lineup and instead Antonetti signed David Murphy, who has a good track record (.275 lifetime batting average, 778 OPS), but hit just .220 last season for the Rangers.

The Tribe needs comeback seasons from Nick Swisher, bothered by a shoulder problem in 2013, Michael Bourn, and Asdrubal Cabrera, who will be a free agent following the season, in order to have a more consistent attack.

They will also need continued improvement from two hitters entering their age 27 (entering prime) seasons in 2B Jason Kipnis and Michael Brantley. Everyone praised Brantley’s ’13 season, but actually his OPS and batting average were down from 2012 (728 OPS/.284 in ’13 compared to 750/.288 in ’12).

He has the talent to be a premier offensive player (.350 OBP, .450 slugging percentage) and needs to reach those levels in 2014.

Kipnis needs to be more consistent. He hit .301 (897 OPS) before the All-Star break, and just .261 (714 OPS) after the Midsummer Classic. As the #3 hitter in the lineup, he needs to stay away from weeks where he is producing like a bottom of the order hitter.

We also have doubts about the experiment of playing Carlos Santana will work out. Santana hit .268 with 20 HR last season, and you would think his production will increase without the burden of catching more than 100 games a season, but will the switch in positions affect him at the plate?

And, of course, will his defense be solid enough to play at the hot corner on a daily basis.

The division will be close and the Tribe will be playing meaningful games in September. However, there are enough questions to think they will fall just short.

However, if some of the scenarios outlined above reach reality, the Indians could win the division and make the playoffs in back-to-back years for the first time since the late 90’s.

Bourn Signing OK, A Starter Would Have Been Better

The Cleveland Indians shocked everyone in the baseball world by signing free agent CF Michael Bourn to a four-year contract, worth an estimated $48 million.

We aren’t sure how much this helps the 2013 Tribe, at least offensively.

We are happy that the front office was able to spend money, and it shows a change in how the Dolan family is running the team, but with the state of the starting rotation, the dollars would be better spent there.

To be sure, the Indians may have baseball’s best defensive outfield with Bourn, flanked by Drew Stubbs in right and Michael Brantley in left. And that should help a pitching staff that ranked last in the AL in ERA last season.

However, the American League is an offensive league, particularly in the regular season, and it says here that Bourn doesn’t help the offense all that much. Why? Because he’s not a very good offensive player.

Here’s hoping Tribe fans don’t see a speedy, centerfielder and think of former Indian great Kenny Lofton, because GM Chris Antonetti’s latest signing doesn’t compare favorably.

Bourn, a left-handed hitter has a lifetime OPS of just 704. He’s a leadoff man by trade, yet his career on base percentage is just .339.

To be fair, in recent years he has been close to the .350 mark which is acceptable for a guy hitting at the top of the order. However, by comparison to the best leadoff hitter the Indians have had in recent years, Lofton, Bourn isn’t close. Lofton’s career on base percentage was a robust .372.

Also, the newest Indian has little pop. His lifetime slugging percentage is .365 and last year it was still under .400 (.391). Just for a comparison that you won’t like, Ezequiel Carrera’s slugging percentage for Cleveland last year? Try .395.

When Bourn gets on base, he can run, averaging 51 stolen bases per season over 162 games. He’s also an excellent defender, the winner of two Gold Gloves.

For $12 million per year, you should expect a little more with the stick. And for a player who makes his living with his legs, you have to wonder how effective of a player Bourn will be in the last two years of the contract, when he will be 32 and 33 years old.

Many baseball website rated Bourn as one of the top free agents in the off-season, mostly based on his WAR (wins above replacement player). However, that rating is inflated because of his defense at a premium defensive position.

Still, according to Baseball Reference.com, the most comparable hitters to Bourn at this point in his career are former Indian Dave Roberts, Albie Pearson and Roger Cedeno. All solid major league players, but no immortals there.

Bourn will enable Terry Francona to perhaps move Nick Swisher to 1B and DH Mark Reynolds, or even isolate Stubbs weaknesses at the plate by limiting his at bats vs. right-handers. He’s a better hitter than Stubbs, so if you consider that an upgrade then we have to agree.

Swisher was a solid signing because he’s a consistent player with OPS of between 743 and 870 throughout his major league career. His lifetime figure is 828 and he’s usually around that figure.

If this signing enables Antonetti to deal an outfielder, preferably Stubbs, for a legitimate starting pitcher, then it’s a good move.

Bourn isn’t a bad player, it just says here he won’t be an impact signing for the Indians. At those dollars, he should be.

Tribe Adds Grit This Off-Season

One of the overlooked aspects of the last time the Cleveland Indians made the post-season was the value of the veteran leadership provided by Trot Nixon.

Nixon hit just .251 on the season with 3 HR and 31 RBIs, but he provided a winning attitude since we was a key player on many winning teams with the Boston Red Sox. He didn’t play much after GM Mark Shapiro picked up Kenny Lofton for the stretch drive, but Lofton was another veteran who played on a ton of winning teams throughout his career, most of those being the Indians of the late 90’s.

Since then, the Indians have tried to pick up veterans for leadership but most of them haven’t been able to produce enough to stay on the field, and if they can’t be in the lineup, it is tough to provide guidance for the young players. Look at Orlando Cabrera in 2011, early in the year he provided some big hits and the team won.

However, as the season went on, Cabrera became a problem both offensively and defensively and it was getting difficult for Manny Acta to keep writing his name in the lineup. He was traded to the Giants at the deadline and wasn’t on a big league roster in 2012.

This year, Chris Antonetti has acquired three players who have some grit and can provide leadership and another guy who plays with a little swagger.

Nick Swisher was the plum of the off-season moves by Antonetti, a player who plays everyday and puts up around 25 HR and 80 RBIs on a yearly basis. He also plays with a joy and toughness, something badly needed by a team who has appeared emotionless in recent years, a reflection of the calm hand provided by Acta.

It has been said that Swisher’s enthusiasm was a key addition to a stale Yankee clubhouse when he went there in 2009 and it resulted in the only World Championship for the Bronx Bombers since 2000. He reminded the corporate Yankees that baseball was a game and it was supposed to be fun.

It’s a trait that should be welcome in the Cleveland locker room this season. His personality showed through in the press conference introducing him to the local media.

Brett Myers is another addition with experience on a winner, appearing in three post-seasons with the Phillies from 2007-09. He has been a starter in a World Series game. Put that together with six seasons of throwing 200 innings and he provides help in two areas for the Tribe.

He can give a fairly young pitching staff some leadership and he also gives the Indians a starting pitcher who can soak up innings and pitch deep into games. And he has a lifetime ERA of 4.28 as a starter.

He throws strikes, with a strikeout to walk ratio of over 2 to 1, and allows around a hit per inning for his career. Those are solid numbers.

An under the radar pick up by Antonetti is INF Mike Aviles, who has been a productive big league hitter when given limited at bats. He’s a career .277 hitter with a 715 OPS, but his numbers were dragged down a bit by last season when he played everyday for the first time. He was a .286 hitter with Kansas City (734 OPS).

Aviles struck us as a player with a chip on his shoulder when playing for the Royals. He flipped his bat when homering against the Indians with Kansas City, it was a galling act considering he never hit more than 13 dingers in a season.

However, when he plays for your team, it’s the kind of attitude you like to see. Here’s hoping he brings the same edge to the Indians.

Every move made by the Tribe this off-season has improved the ball club in terms of production, with the exception of swapping Shin-Soo Choo for Swisher which is a break even move.

But these moves have also provided the 2013 Indians with a winning attitude, a ‘tude that starts with the new manager, Terry Francona. The Indians who take the field this coming April won’t make excuses. They will expect to win every game.

A Few Suggestions for the Tribe.

It appears the last gasp of the 2012 baseball season for the Cleveland Indians was the four runs outburst in the seventh inning to beat Justin Verlander last Thursday night at Progressive Field.

It’s been downhill ever since both on the field and in the front office.

Fans of the Tribe are understandably both frustrated and infuriated as the organization sits back and does nothing while there are still a chance to compete for the division title.

Now, it appears very likely that the franchise will endure another season below the .500 mark, the ninth in the last 11 years under the Dolan/Shapiro/Antonetti stewardship.

The baseball season is over for the most part, and we can thank the inactivity of the front office, both in the off-season and during this season for that.

The funniest comment made yesterday by GM Chris Antonetti was that the organization learned in discussing trades was how other teams judged the Indians’ players.

The hidden message was opponents don’t think much of what the Tribe has on the big league roster and the upper levels of the minors.

So, what can the Indians do going forward to help repair their relationship going forward? Here are a few suggestions…

First, end the “what if” advertising campaign. With the lack of moves and winning, the commercials have become a source of ridicule for the organization.

Yes, the period from 1994-2001 may have been the best span in club history. It’s over! Showing us clips of Jim Thome, Kenny Lofton, and Sandy Alomar Jr. just makes fans angry that the Indians refuse to compete now.

Focus on the present. Tell fans why they should come to Progressive Field now. And if you can’t come up with a good reason, that’s another problem altogether. Get better as an organization.

Second, it’s time to get better at player development. When support is written or said for the Ubaldo Jimenez trade, the main argument is that Drew Pomerantz and Alex White aren’t doing anything with the Rockies.

That’s an indictment of the scouting system since they were both first round draft picks.

This organization has just one drafted player (Jason Kipnis) among its starters, and another Lonnie Chisenhall, who would start if he wasn’t injured and the manager didn’t have a man crush on Jack Hannahan.

For a small to mid market team, that’s a recipe for disaster. And that’s why the Indians is consistently under .500.

If you look at the best prospects in the game, only one player from the Cleveland organization is on the list, 2011 first round pick SS Francisco Lindor.

The talent in the organization has to be improved, or the failure rate is going to continue.

The last thing Antonetti should do is start building for 2013 right now. We are echoing what several people have said already.

It is time for departure to players who aren’t going to be part of group that meets in Goodyear, AZ next spring.

That means good-bye to Johnny Damon, Casey Kotchman, Shelley Duncan, Derek Lowe, and Jack Hannahan.

Let’s take a look at some of the players from Columbus, who by the way leads the International League in batting average and runs scored.

We have said this many, many times. Russ Canzler, Matt LaPorta, Ezequiel Carrera, Tim Fedroff, Corey Kluber, and Chris Seddon can’t be any worse than the players whose place they would be taking.

They should be called to the big leagues immediately.

It would also allow for some players from Akron to be moved up. The Aeros have a lot of players repeating the AA level for the second time, and it’s time to see if those guys are prospects or not.

At least it would make the games somewhat worth watching for hardcore fans.

The Dolan family, Shapiro, and Antonetti have some fence mending to do. It may already be too late.

Is Brantley the Answer at Leadoff?

At the end of the 2008 season, the Cleveland Indians were owed a player from the Milwaukee Brewers as a result of the C.C. Sabathia trade and they selected Michael Brantley as the player to be named later.

The then 21-year-old outfielder was coming off a season in which he hit .319 with a .395 on base percentage, and 28 stolen bases in 108 games at the AA level.

He looked a lot like a guy who could be next in line of leadoff hitting centerfielders, following the lineage of Kenny Lofton and Grady Sizemore.

Brantley’s bigger than Lofton at 6’2″ and 200 pounds, but his offensive game seemed more like his than Sizemore, who hit for more power out of the first spot in the batting order.

He struggled in his first taste of AAA pitching, his average dropping to .267 and his OBP being just .350. Still, he walked more than he struck out in over 450 at bats.

He received a late season call up to Cleveland, and hit .313 with a .358 OBP. At only 22, it seemed like a good start to a major league career.

Starting the year with the big club in 2010, he struggled and was sent back to Columbus where he hit .319 with a .395 OBP in 67 games.

He hasn’t approached those numbers in the big leagues since coming up to stay later in the ’10 season.

Last season, in almost 500 plate appearances, Brantley batted just .266 with a .318 on base average. Not horrible numbers, but just not the profile of a good leadoff man.

Thus far in 2012, the left-handed hitter is batting .250 with a .321 on base percentage. He was hot in the weekend series vs. the Angels, getting two hits or more in two of the three games.

Still, for his career, totalling over 1000 at bats, Brantley has a .316 OBP, a figure more suited to someone hitting in the bottom third of the batting order, not one who should be a table setter.

By contrast, Lofton reached base 36.2% of the time in his first year with the Indians in 1992, increased that figure to .408 the following season. He finished his career with a .372 mark.

Sizemore had a .348 on base percentage in his first full year with the Tribe in 2005, and increased that to .375 in ’06. He currently has a .357 OBP.

The point here is that both Lofton and Sizemore demonstrated a keen ability to get on base early in their careers. They didn’t gain it through experience.

True, Lofton is one of the best leadoff guys in the history of the game, and Sizemore was definitely an impact hitter at the top of the order during his heyday of 2005-08.

But right now, Brantley doesn’t show much ability to be a consistent threat to get on base. Again, he has picked it up in the last few games, but with over 1ooo at bats in the big leagues, getting on base a little under 32% of the time is not acceptable from the top of the order.

This isn’t to say Brantley can’t become a good offensive player in time. He’s still just 25 years old. However, it doesn’t appear he can be a very good leadoff man, despite looking the part.

In the American League, you need to have seven good hitters in the lineup to score enough runs to win. Right now, the Tribe has five (Hafner, Cabrera, Santana, Choo, Kipnis) and Brantley isn’t one.

But he’s the man out of those playing now who may be able to become one. It may just not be in the spot the Indians want him to hit in.