Counting Down The Magic Numbers And What About Cobb?

September baseball is so cool when the team you follow is a contender. Scoreboard watching. Counting down the magic number. It’s all part of following baseball at a time when football is starting to consume the public.

Especially here in northeast Ohio.

With the new playoff set up in baseball, there are several magic numbers to watch. First and foremost, most people look at winning the division, because that’s what fans have been trained to do.

Currently that number is 12. When the two teams behind you play each other, one wants one team to win two out of three, the worst-case scenario is for one team to sweep. But last weekend the Royals swept the Twins, meaning Kansas City picked up ground when the Guardians lost to two of three to the Dodgers.

With Cleveland now holding a share of the best record in the American League, we are sure the Guardians would like to finish with one of the two best records in the league, thus being able to advance right to the Division Series, which is best-of-five, with the Guards have the home field advantage.

Right now, Houston is in first place in the West, and Cleveland is 5.5 games ahead of them. This means the magic number to bypass the Wild Card Series, best-of-three, is 13, with the Astros finishing the regular season with three games at Progressive Field.

And of course, there is another magic number associated with just getting into the post-season “tournament”, meaning the Guardians would be no worse than the sixth seed in the AL, currently held by the Twins, who hold a three-game lead over Detroit and four over Seattle and Boston.

That number would be 8, since Cleveland took the season series from Detroit, 7-6.

The penultimate trip of the regular season was a success if only because the Guardians went into KC, their closest rivals, and took two of three. They salvaged one game in Los Angeles, and then did what had to be done in Chicago against the team that seems in line to shatter the record for losing, which was symbolic for the expansion New York Mets, who famously went 40-120.

Now, there is only one trip left, a three-game trek to St. Louis next weekend. Otherwise, Steven Vogt’s squad spends the rest of their slate at home, but they don’t get any days off until they return from the trip.

That means the pitching staff gets no rest for another week and a half. Because Gavin Williams couldn’t get out of the first last Saturday and Ben Lively took a line drive off the thigh and pitched just two innings Tuesday, and yesterday, Matthew Boyd couldn’t get through the 5th, so the bullpen has been taxed. Again.

And add to that, Alex Cobb’s problems. Yes, he’s pitched well in his last two starts, but he’s also been out with a cracked fingernail and a blister. Can he make some starts on turn in the last two and a half weeks?

We are sure the management would feel better about him in the post-season if he could do just that.

We didn’t anticipate conversations about the playoffs before this season started, but it is certainly fun to have them. Time to enjoy the games AND the scoreboard watching.

Win Vs. KC May Have Turned It All Around For Guardians

It is very difficult to come from way behind in sports. How many times have you seen a team come from say, 20 points down in the second half of a game, trimming the lead to say, three or four points, only to fall back and wind up losing by double digits.

The same can be true chasing a team in the standings. In the past week, we have kind of seen just that with the Cleveland Guardians and Kansas City Royals.

On June 25th, the Guardians were in first place in the AL Central with a 51-26 record, leading Minnesota by nine games and the Royals by 10, as KC sat with a 43-38 mark.

You can see by the records that the teams had played about half of their season’s schedule.

But last week, the Royals finally tracked the Guardians down, winning the first three games of a four-game series in Cleveland. The two teams were tied in the standings, but because Kansas City won the season series, it meant technically, KC was in first place.

In the fourth game of the set, the Guards looked like a weary squad and trailed after six innings, 5-2. It seemed to be the equivalent of the 1978 Boston Massacre, when the Red Sox, who had a double digit lead earlier in the season, were famously swept at home by the Yankees.

Eventually, the two teams had to play a 163rd game to decide the American League East.

But we digress. In the bottom of the 7th, Cleveland rallied for four runs to take a 6-5 lead, added another run in the 8th, and when Emmanuel Clase closed out the Guardians’ victory, the series ended with a one game lead for Steven Vogt’s group.

Since then, Kansas City has lost an additional six consecutive contests, while Cleveland has won five out of six and taken a 4.5 game advantage over the Twins and 5.5 over the Royals.

Yes, the Royals lost Vinnie Pasquantino, their second or third best hitter, having driven in 97 runs in 2024, and that has really hurt their offense. They haven’t scored more than three runs since he went down.

That seventh inning at Progressive Field seems to have shifted the momentum for now in the division title race. Cleveland didn’t let Kansas City pass them, and the Royals seem to have expended a lot of energy in tracking the Guardians down.

Meanwhile, the Guardians seem to have their starting rotation pitching as well as it has all season long, although we all know that could change at the drop of a hat. Although we were skeptical of the acquisitions of Matthew Boyd and Alex Cobb by the front office, they seem to have stabilized the starting staff.

Boyd has a 2.38 ERA over five starts, while Cobb, who had a perfect game through six innings on Sunday, has a 2.76 ERA.

Overall, the rotation is giving Vogt at six innings in four straight starts, allowing the highly taxed bullpen to get some valuable rest.

Last week, when the Guards were struggling, we said we hoped for a big event, a big home run, a walk-off win, to get this team going in the right direction again.

That seventh inning in the last game of the Royals series in Cleveland may have been that shot in the arm.

It’s Crunch Time For The Guardians.

Here we go. The Cleveland Guardians have a single game lead in the AL Central with 30 games to play and we have a good ol’ fashioned race for the division title.

It started yesterday with a doubleheader sweep by the Royals, the first two of seven games between Kansas City and Cleveland over a ten-day stretch. And there is a quartet of games at Progressive Field against the Twins September 16th through the 19th.

Pennant race baseball is a lot of fun even though Cleveland fans haven’t experienced a lot of it since the franchise returned to prominence in 1994.

Since the three divisional set up, when Cleveland has won the division, they did it pretty comfortably: 30 game margin in 1995, 14.5 in ’96, 6 games in ’97, 9 in ’98, 21.5 in ’99, 6 games in 2001, 8 in 2007, 8 in 2016, 17 in ’17, 13 in ’19, and their last division title was won by 11 games in 2022.

Now this year, it may wind up the same, with the Guardians coasting into the title by going on a hot streak.

The most fun last month of the season might have been 2013, Terry Francona’s first year as Indians’ skipper. On Labor Day, Cleveland was in second place in the Central, 8.5 behind the first place Tigers. In terms of the wild card, and there were only two that year, the Tribe was 3.5 behind the Rays, who at the time held the last playoff spot.

By September 15th, they had trimmed that margin to just a half game and wound up hosting the Wild Card Game against Tampa by winning their last 11 games to cap off a 21-6 month.

By the way, they lost that one game playoff and the Rays’ starting pitcher was current Guardian Alex Cobb.

While it is likely (not guaranteed) that all three teams, the Guardians, Royals, and Twins will make the playoffs, winning the division takes added importance this season.

Right now, Cleveland has a five-game edge over AL West leading Houston, and the division winners with the two best records at the end of the season advance right to the Division Series. Keep in mind, the Astros and Guardians finish the regular season with a three-game set at Progressive Field.

After the second set of games against the Royals, the last three being in KC, the Guardians then have to travel to the west coast to take on the Dodgers, before heading to Chicago for a series with the Sox, now of course managed by former Cleveland standout, Grady Sizemore.

At the conclusion of that excursion pretty much ends the road season for Steven Vogt’s crew, with only a three-game set in St. Louis remaining away from the corner of Carnegie and Ontario.

As for the Royals, they have just 13 home games left and following these games in Cleveland, they head to Houston for four there. They also have road series at Yankee Stadium and Atlanta, the latter to finish the season.

The Twins play 19 more at Target Field and have 14 road contests. They are currently playing the Braves, and have three more in Kansas City while the Guards are in LA.

They end the year against the Orioles, who could also be fighting for playoff seeding.

While it may not be enjoyable to watch, especially if the Guardians’ hitting is struggling, meaningful September (and late August) baseball is supposed to be fun. Besides the Cleveland game, you also have the scoreboard watching.

Let’s hope there is more hope at the end of this stretch and not more questions.

Royals’ Potential Sale Should Be A Red Flag For Tribe Fans.

Even though they are in the middle of a post-season race, the Cleveland Indians were involved in off the field news yesterday, both good and bad.

The good was the announcement that Carlos Carrasco would be activated on Sunday when the rosters will be expanded, barring any problem with his rehab assignment today in Columbus.

Carrasco will pitch out of the bullpen during September, and he could be a big weapon in relief, potentially as a set up man for Brad Hand.

The other news should be concerning and it isn’t getting a lot of play from the local media.

John Sherman, who joined the Indians as a minority owner in 2016, appears to be close to buying the Kansas City Royals.

Sherman is from KC, and reportedly has been a Royals’ season ticket holder for many years.

If you are someone who is skeptical about the Dolan family ownership of the Indians, you are probably alarmed by this news.

It is not a coincidence that the spike in the Indians’ payroll in 2017 and 2018 came after Sherman bought a piece of the franchise. It has been reported by MLB.com that the minority owner was responsible for that spike.

Rumors that Sherman was no longer part of the organization surfaced in the spring when the payroll was cut from the 2018 level, but in retrospect, the reduction is salaries came from the news that Sherman was in negotiations to buy the Royals.

That should, in itself, be a huge warning signal about the future salary expenditures for the Cleveland Indians.

After trimming $15-$20 million off the payroll a year ago, could there be a similar reduction this winter? After all, the Dolans will have to buy Sherman out assuming he buys the Royals, and we are guessing that’s a substantial amount of cash.

Also, whether they win the AL Central Division or not, the Indians will be one of the top five or six teams in the league after the season, and could be making their fourth consecutive appearance in the post-season.

We have seen the effect on attendance after the payroll trim last season, can you imagine what will happen if let’s say management doesn’t bring back Corey Kluber and heaven forbid, decides to trade Francisco Lindor because the want to pay less in salaries than they did in 2019?

Before you say we are over-reacting, if the reason for the high payrolls in ’17 and ’18 were because of Sherman, then can’t you infer another cut is coming? Certainly, there will not be an increase in the players’ salaries.

Will the Dolans look for another investor to take Sherman’s place, or will Sherman sell his shares in the Indians to another person who is willing to spend?

Remember, the mega trade at the deadline which moved Trevor Bauer for what appears to be a huge haul, actually saved the Tribe money in 2019. It wasn’t a financial move to “go for it”.

So, keep an eye on these Kansas City negotiations. A close eye. Because the near future of the Cleveland Indians franchise and the Dolan ownership should be under close scrutiny.

Or maybe this is the first step in a full sale of the franchise. Either way, it should be concerning for Tribe fans.

Royals Success is Cruel Reminder of Tribe Inactivity

Let this soak in for a minute…the Kansas City Royals are the American League Champions.

They will host the first two games of the World Series next week and have provided their fans with three weeks of excitement. We remember that feeling from 2007.

During the regular season, the Royals won exactly four more games than the Indians (89 vs. 85) and based on run differential, the Royals should have won 84 games as opposed to the Tribe’s 83. As you can see there isn’t much difference between the two clubs.

Kansas City GM Drayton Moore went all in to make the post-season, perhaps because the Royals last trip to the playoffs came in 1985. He traded for right-handed hitter Josh Willingham, relief pitcher Jason Frasor, and veteran left-handed bat Raul Ibanez.

As we have well documented, the Indians traded Justin Masterson and Asdrubal Cabrera, and brought in OF J.B. Shuck and utility man Chris Gimenez.

The point isn’t the contributions made by the players who joined Kansas City in the last two months of the season, it’s that they made a commitment to the rest of the players on the roster.

We remember in 1995 when then GM John Hart traded for Ken Hill at the trade deadline even though the Indians were way ahead in the AL Central Division standings. They didn’t need to add a pitcher, but Hart wanted to send the message to everyone on that team that the organization was it in to win a World Series.

And think about it, what message did GM Chris Antonetti send to this year’s team when he didn’t help them out on July 31st?

Kansas City’s success this year is a reminder that baseball is the one sport where getting into the playoffs gives you a chance to be the World Series Champions. The percentages of the eighth seed in the NBA playoffs advancing past the first round are very slim, they are usually dominated by the best team in each conference.

In the NFL, although it was happened that a team gets on a roll, in most years, the last team to make the post-season, the sixth seed in each conference, has a lot of disadvantages. They have to play all of their games on the road, and they have to play three games instead of two for the top seeds.

But in baseball, if you can get in, you have a shot. It comes down to pitching, hitters getting hot at the right time, and solid bullpens. That’s why the San Francisco Giants, on the verge of advancing to their third World Series in five years, have missed the playoffs twice in the same span.

They have a team perfectly set up for the playoffs, but sometimes they don’t hit enough to qualify for the post-season over a 162 game slate.

This year, if the Giants and Royals play in the Fall Classic, we will be assured that a great team will not win the Series. That isn’t belittling either squad, but it is simply a fact, and it goes to show how important it can be to just make the playoffs.

Unfortunately, it doesn’t appear the Cleveland Indians didn’t go the extra mile to get in even though they were right on the doorstep.

The front office has to look at the Royals and think “that could be us”.