Thinking Like A Coach Or GM

At times we are asked why we think Cleveland area teams should look to add to the roster. It has come up recently because we have written several pieces about how the Guardians should sign a veteran starting pitcher because there are several available on one-year deals.

We would also like the Cavaliers to add another big man, either on the buyout market or from the G-League.

First of all, and this probably comes from our coaching days, we have been trained to look for what needs improvement on a given team. We think there isn’t a team out there that doesn’t have either a weakness or could use a slight improvement to its roster.

Sometimes, it would be a subtle move, such as could you find a better “last man” on the roster. That seems silly to some, but it is how coaches and general managers need to think.

Fans look at players and teams and think if everything goes right, the team they follow will be very good. For example, there are people (influencers, since they were kind of in the spotlight this week) who believe Kyle Manzardo, Juan Brito will become all-stars, and Bo Naylor will return to his 2023 form and the Guardians will repeat as Central Division champions.

Chris Antonetti and Mike Chernoff are probably hoping that is indeed the case, but they also should be coming up with a contingency plan in case everything goes in the other direction. We believe they are concerned, but perhaps their hands are tied from making such a move.

There is an old adage in baseball that at the end of the year, a players’ numbers will be close to what the back of their baseball card says. But when a player only has one or two lines on that card, it is tough to judge him or her.

Not having a track record is likely the thing that worries an executive more than anything else.

We discussed the starting rotation for Cleveland the other day and really, there is only one hurler, Tanner Bibee, with any kind of record of success as a starter, and he only has two years in the big leagues. Every other candidate for the rotation should be viewed as huge question marks.

And, by the way, we are fans, just like you, and we want all of those pitchers to do well. But we haven’t seen any evidence that calms our fears.

As for the Cavs, on Friday night, we saw Jarrett Allen leave the game with a hand injury. Hopefully, all is good, and Allen plays tonight, but what if this happened near the end of the regular season or the playoffs?

If Allen were to miss a significant amount of time in the post-season, the Cavs probably are in trouble, but if it would be a game or two, you can’t just have Tristan Thompson as the only alternative. That’s why we (and the Cavs’ brass) would be looking for another big man.

They don’t need a starter, just someone who could provide five to ten minutes in an emergency situation.

The coaches and executives need to plan for any problems that should arise, and that’s how they are trained to think. It’s also why they have a lot of stress in their jobs and feel more relieved than happy when things go well.

Where Are Runs Coming From For Guardians?

The Cleveland Guardians’ will start their defense of the American League Central Division title in a few weeks when spring training starts and frankly, it’s difficult to see where the team has improved.

Several fans have pointed out to us that the Guardians’ front office moves stealthily, so maybe something will happen in the next few weeks. However, we think it is safe to say the ownership really doesn’t want to spend money, so maybe not.

Last season, the average Major League team scored 4.39 runs per game. Cleveland scored 4.40, ranking 14th in the majors. The average OPS was 711, the Guardians were 16th with a 703 mark.

Let’s look at the 711 figure, again which is what the average major league player does. Among players with 100 or more plate appearances, the Guardians had five: Jose Ramirez at 872, David Fry, who will miss the first half of the season, at 804, Steven Kwan (793), Josh Naylor, since traded, at 776, and Jhonkensy Noel at 774.

They added Carlos Santana to replace Naylor, and he had a 749 OPS.

So, a look at the Guardians’ opening day lineup, assuming a right-hander starts probably looks like this–

LF Kwan (793)
DH Kyle Manzardo (703)
3B Ramirez (872)
1B Santana (749)
CF Lane Thomas (709)
2B Juan Brito (no MLB at bats, but 807 at AAA)
RF Will Brennan (697)
C Bo Naylor (614)
SS Brayan Rocchio (614)

Remember, that Santana last year vs. RHP had a 676 OPS, not good. So what you have is two solid bats in Ramirez and Kwan, Thomas is average, but another player with an extreme platoon split (878 vs. lefties, 647 vs. righties), and a bunch of guys who really have no track record.

We like Manzardo’s potential, he had a 946 OPS in AAA last season, but he has less than 200 MLB plate appearances. Brito has never stepped into the box in a big league game. Brennan has over 800 plate appearances and a career 685 OPS.

He’s the worst combination as a hitter thus far, a singles hitter who doesn’t walk. If you are going to be that, you have to hit .330. Brennan does not.

Naylor has had two seasons with Cleveland, one good with the bat, last season, not so good. And also, Rocchio had a very good post-season, that 614 OPS isn’t good.

We have always maintained that although pitching is king in the playoffs, you have to score runs to get there. If you look at the teams who score the most in the regular season, more likely than not, those teams get to play in October.

Our question for the Guardians is where will the runs come from? Yes, yes, the people who believe in every prospect will tell me Manzardo and Brito are going to be productive, and things will be just fine.

But what’s the alternative? If Brito doesn’t hit, the Guardians have to go back to the likes of Gabriel Arias (608), Tyler Freeman (626), and Daniel Schneemann (671). And if Manzardo isn’t hitting like he did in September and October, then who? Chase DeLauter? Noel? Johnathan Rodriguez?

And by the way, we like DeLauter, but he’s had 23 at bats at AAA. And Noel? We aren’t warm and fuzzy about a guy with a 63:13 K/BB ratio.

A bigger question is what if Santana doesn’t recover his stroke vs. RHP and becomes dead weight against those pitchers?

Front offices have to build teams, contending teams, with an eye on what if things don’t go right? We ask this question…where are the runs coming from?

Looking At Second Base in ’25 For Guardians

With the winter meetings now history and the Cleveland Guardians making two trades, which both came out of nowhere, we can take a look at how the team shapes up, although there is still plenty of time to make moves with spring training not starting for two months.

Friday, team president Chris Antonetti named four candidates to play second base in place of Andres Gimenez: Gabriel Arias, Tyler Freeman, Daniel Schneemann, and rookie Juan Brito.

We said the other day that Brito should get the first shot. Why? It’s kind of weird to say this, but partially because we haven’t seen him in the big leagues.

Arias will be 25 next season and has 563 plate appearances with the Guardians. He has a 624 OPS in those at bats, and a strikeout to walk ratio of 182:42 and a 32.3% K rate. He has pop when he hits the ball, and that mesmerizes certain fans, but he simply hasn’t been very productive.

Freeman will be 26 and has the most big league at bats out of the quartet with 637 plate appearances and a 632 OPS. His strikeout to walk ratio is 94:42. He was the regular CF in April and May and was doing an acceptable job, but had a slump in June and after Schneemann was called up, lost playing time.

He has an 802 OPS in AAA, which is a pretty good pedigree.

The left-handed hitting Schneemann got off to a great start in AAA last year and carried it over to the big club, hitting .263 in June with a .362 on base average. After the All-Star Game, he hit .202 with a 555 OPS. The organization loved his versatility, but our opinion was the coaching staff loved him a little more than he deserved. He will be 28 this coming season.

Brito is a 23-year-old switch hitter who came over from Colorado for Nolan Jones. He has a career OPS in the minors of 834, including 807 last year in Columbus when he hit .256 with 88 walks and 61 extra base hits.

The Guardians hit more home runs last year than in 2023, but the number of doubles went way down. Brito had 40 doubles for the Clippers last year.

He doesn’t have a great reputation with the glove, and the organization started playing him at 1B, 3B, and RF last season, but as we say many times, get the lead and you can put a glove in the game, either Arias or Freeman, because we don’t think too much of Schneemann’s glove.

Also, have to think Angel Martinez is also in the mix, but his 635 OPS might suggest he needs more time in AAA, as he only has 169 plate appearances and will only be 23-years-old.

Despite getting Luis Ortiz, the Guardians still need starting pitching. Yes, they kept Shane Bieber, but he likely won’t be ready until the second half of the season.

We wonder what the cost would be for a guy like Lance Lynn (7-4, 3.84 ERA, 109 Ks in 117 IP for St. Louis) or a Jose Quintana (10-10, 3.75 ERA in 170 IP for the Mets) would cost.

Both guys would soak up some much-needed innings for Steven Vogt.

And yes, we would still consider Hunter Gaddis for a move back to the rotation. He’s more valuable getting 15-18 outs than three.

Antonetti did say the team has some money to spend with the trade of Gimenez. We still believe the Guardians should increase the payroll from last year anyway, but the reason for the deal was to get out from what was looking to be a bad contract in a couple of years.

Let’s hope that wasn’t media speak by the organization.

Guards Make Two Deals And Get A Much Needed Starter

It was about one month ago that we wrote about the Cleveland Guardians overpaying for defense (https://wordpress.com/post/clevelandsportsperspective.com/21673). Three of their top five contracts (Andres Gimenez, Myles Straw, and Austin Hedges) are for players who are great with the glove, not so much with the bat.

Our theory was that there are tons of players in the minor leagues who can pick it, there is no reason to overpay for fielding. More money should be spent on hitting and pitching.

Essentially, the move the Cleveland Guardians made on Tuesday was dealing Gimenez, the best defensive second baseman in the game, for a starting pitcher, an area of huge need.

We cannot complain about that.

While we are no fans of the Dolan family ownership, we don’t view these moves as a salary dump. Cleveland would have had to pay Gimenez over $23 million per year starting in 2027, and let’s face it, in Gimenez’ four seasons with the Guardians, he was above average as a hitter only in 2022.

In exchange, the Guardians get Luis Ortiz, who made 15 starts with the Pirates a year ago, pitching 135.2 innings with a 3.32 ERA (3.22 as a starter). He struck out 107 hitters, walking only 42.

The 26-year-old right-hander figures to be in the Cleveland rotation to start the season, and let’s face it, the Guards need starting pitchers.

They also received three minor leaguers, all who have either never played professionally (Josh Hartle) or played in low A last season (Nick Mitchell from Toronto and Michael Kennedy from the Pirates). Those guys are lottery tickets.

And let’s face it, the Guardians system is loaded with middle infielders. We would think Juan Brito (807 OPS at AAA in ’24) would get the first shot at taking the spot. Brito, a switch-hitter, hit .256 with 21 homers at Columbus last season, but also drew 88 walks against 105 strikeouts.

His career lifetime on base percentage in the minors is .384.

Besides Brito, the Guardians also have Gabriel Arias, Tyler Freeman, Daniel Schneemann, and/or Angel Martinez who can play second base next year. So, it can also be a move made from strength.

And you cannot forget the organizations’ best prospect is Travis Bazzana, the first overall pick in last year’s amateur draft. He could be arriving sometime during the upcoming season.

There is a difference between a salary dump and moving a contract that an organization doesn’t think is going to age well, and we think the Guardians did the latter.

We still think the Guardians’ ownership needs to spend more, and they freed up almost $11 million to the pool as that was what they were going to pay Gimenez this year. Hopefully, these funds can be used to sign or trade for another starting pitchers or another bat.

If the result of this trade is being able to get another solid starting pitcher or getting another solid hitter to play every day, then we are all in.

But if this is all the Guardians’ front office is going to do? Then they have probably kept the payroll the same after a good year at the gate and on the field. That won’t play well with the people who buy tickets.

How Can Guards Score More Runs Next Year?

Before the season started, we felt the Guardians would be a .500 baseball team, but they got off to a tremendous start and won the AL Central with a 92-69 record and eventually lost in the Championship Series to the Yankees in five games.

When the 2025 season starts late next March in Kansas City, it will have been 77 years since the franchise has won the World Series. And yes, that’s the longest drought in the sport.

What can the Guardians do to defend their divisional title and also to get better in ’25? Today, we will focus on the offense.

Cleveland ranked 7th in the league in runs scored and the only playoff team that scored less was Detroit. Their team OPS was also 7th right at the league average at 703. They were slightly below average in getting on base and slightly above average in slugging.

All in all, they had an average offense.

By position, the Guardians were only above average at four spots: 1B (Josh Naylor), 3B (Jose Ramirez), LF (Steven Kwan), and DH.

We think the one thing the Guardians can focus on offensively is getting on base more often. The league average was .309 and only four players exceeded that: Kwan (.368), David Fry (.356), Ramirez (.335) and Josh Naylor (.320).

Last season, the Guardians made a concerted effort to hit with more power, and they did, hitting 61 more home runs, but it only raised the slugging percentage by 14 points.

How did that happen? They hit 49 less doubles and 11 less triples than they did in ’23.

Let’s look at Kwan, who people talked about his power increase because he went from five long balls to 14 in 2024.

What if we told you he actually had less extra base hits this season? He had 36 doubles, 7 triples last year. This year, just 16 doubles and three triples. Andres Gimenez dropped from 47 XBH to 32 in 2024.

Our point is the “be aggressive and try to drive the ball” approach worked in terms of hitting home runs, but it didn’t improve the extra base hit ability of the Guardians all that much.

The Yankees led the league in runs scored, but their offense is an anomaly because they have Aaron Judge and Juan Soto. They only had five regulars with OPS over 700, one more than Cleveland.

Baltimore was second in runs scored, and they had eight players over 700. Boston was third and they had seven players over that mark. Houston was next and they also had seven hitters over 700.

Can Lane Thomas provide enough offense to hold down a regular spot in the outfield? His combined OPS of 709 was about average. However, we liked his K rate and walk rate a lot better when he was with the Nationals.

At the very least, Fry and Kyle Manzardo should be fine at the DH spot, although the latter might deserve a shot at being an everyday player as the season progresses.

If Fry’s elbow issue isn’t something that requires surgery, getting him behind the plate more often would be a benefit because Austin Hedges doesn’t really help with a bat in his hands.

The tough decision could come up the middle where at least one of the regulars, Gimenez or Brayan Rocchio must do better offensively. Both were liabilities this year, although Rocchio had a solid post-season.

Simply put, the Guardians need better offense, and the best way would seem to be based on being more selective as hitters. Walks are good, when you walk, you aren’t making an out.

In the minor leagues, two top prospects stand out. Juan Brito walked 88 times (13.5% rate) in AAA last year, while Chase DeLauter also exceeded 10%. Brito could be a candidate to open the season with the big club, while DeLauter, who has battled injuries could arrive during the season.

The best way to add to the run total is to add more solid offensive players, not trading them.

Have Guardians Mishandled Middle Infield Prospects

Following the 2021 season, the Cleveland Guardians had five prospects who were consensus top 100 players, and three were middle infielders: Tyler Freeman, Brayan Rocchio, and Gabriel Arias.

At that time, Cleveland had Amed Rosario as the starting shortstop and also had 22-year-old Andres Gimenez, the biggest piece the organization received in the Francisco Lindor trade. Gimenez hit .218 with 5 homers and 18 RBIs (633 OPS) in 188 at bats that season, so he hadn’t established himself as of yet.

Two years later, and the three highly rated prospects are still kind of in limbo.

Arias was given the starting shortstop job after Rosario was moved at this year’s trading deadline, after spending the first part of the year playing first base and right field.

Since assuming the position on August 1st, Arias has batted .218 (29 for 133) with 5 HR and 15 runs batted in, a 632 OPS.

Freeman has received sporadic playing time all year, hitting .240 with a 631 OPS, and Rocchio has spent most of the season in Columbus, hitting .284 with a 796 OPS, but in 70 plate appearances in the big leagues, he hit .242 with a 574 OPS, striking out 22 times.

The point here is not to criticize the players, but rather question the organization for kind of mangling the entire situation.

The purpose of having prospects is to keep the talent flow going through the organization or to use them to get players who are needed at the big-league level. And if you have someone blocking that player and you believe in them, you can move them to another position.

A good example is Jose Ramirez. Ramirez played primarily second base in the minor leagues, but when he was coming up the then Indians had Jason Kipnis, a solid player at his position. So, they moved Ramirez to third base, where he has become a perennial all-star.

So, with the situation for Cleveland after the ’21 season, a decision should have been made to either trade Rosario, making room for Arias, Freeman, or Rocchio, trade one or two of the trio, or moving them to another position.

You could say they tried the latter for Arias, and is his case, he also had some injuries during last year, but again, we are saying this decision should have been made prior to last season.

It is very likely that all three’s value has been diminished since the lack of decision after the 2021 season. They are no longer prospects, so now they are simply young players who have never proven anything at the major league level.

Rocchio might have the highest trade value right now, because he’s had a pretty solid year at AAA.

And compounding this situation is that the Guardians have Jose Tena, who is currently on the big-league roster and Juan Brito, who came over in the trade for Nolan Jones this off-season.

By the way, we have advocated for position changes for Freeman and Brito about a month ago.

It seems like the front office seems reticent to make a mistake, trading the wrong player. But you also have to strike while the iron is hot. We aren’t saying it is easy, but trading a prospect at the right time is an art.

However, what the Guardians have done is not taken advantage of the number of high prospect middle infielders they’ve had and converting them into players they could use.

Instead, they’ve become marginal big leaguers who they can’t find at bats for.

Much like telling a pitcher to “trust his stuff”, the Guardians’ front office needs to trust their judgment. Two years later, they still have a lot of middle infield prospects who are ranked highly.

Let’s see if they have learned from their mistake.

Talking About The Glut At 2B/SS For The Guardians

The Cleveland Guardians have been collecting middle infield prospects for the past few seasons. They either signed or drafted Tyler Freeman, Brayan Rocchio, Jose Tena, Angel Martinez, and Milan Tolentino.

They traded for Andres Gimenez, Gabriel Arias, and Juan Brito. And this is all in the six or seven years.

Plus, they acquired Amed Rosario in the Francisco Lindor trade.

The theory is sound. Middle infielders are usually great athletes and in high school the best player is usually the shortstop unless he throws left-handed. Because they are great athletes, they are equipped to move around the diamond and play other positions.

For example, we have seen Cleveland move Arias to first base and to right field, when help was needed at both spots.

The problem for the organization is the last time we checked, you can only play two people in a game at the middle infield spots, one at second base and one at shortstop.

So, decisions have to be made, but so far, they haven’t.

After the trade of Rosario to Los Angeles, the Guardians called up Rocchio from AAA, giving them Arias, Rocchio, Freeman, as well as Gimenez, the starting second baseman, on the big league roster.

As we noted, they have used Arias at 1B and RF, and Rocchio has played third as well as shortstop, and Freeman has been used at 2B, SS, and 3B, the latter position usually manned by the team’s resident superstar, Jose Ramirez.

We believe the organization feels (again, opinion) Rocchio is the heir apparent at some point, perhaps next season. He’s probably the best mix or glove and bat.

So, that leads us to ask what should be done with the others? There is no question the Guardians need hitting. They rank 12th in the American League in runs scored.

Freeman, who just turned 24, can hit. He’s a .311 hitter in the minor leagues with a 813 OPS, and at AAA, he batted .289 with a 782 OPS. In the big leagues on a limited basis, he’s batted .267 in 181 plate appearances.

That may not be great, but outside of Ramirez, Josh Naylor, and Steven Kwan, no one else on the current roster is doing it.

Why do we like him? To quote Peter Brand in “Moneyball”, he gets on base.

Brito, who will soon be 22 and he has shown to be a very good hitter in the minor leagues, batting .286 with an 877 OPS last season in the Rockies’ organization and batting .293 with an 847 OPS between Lake County and Akron this year.

Our question is why not find spots for these two to play? The Guardians have a gaping hole in the outfield, and they already tried Arias there, so why not Freeman and Brito?

Add in the organization’s philosophy of finding hitters who have good contact rates and teaching them to drive the ball. Both Freeman and Brito put the ball in play.

Robin Yount was an excellent SS who moved to CF later in his career. Rick Manning started as a SS and became a Gold Glove centerfielder. Why not start using Freeman out there to get his bat in the lineup.

As for Brito, we have read scouting reports that say he’s limited to 2B defensively, so why not start moving him to the outfield.

The minor league people will say the players lose value once you move them off the dirt, but are the Guardians trying to have the “most valuable” farm system, or is their goal to win games?

Besides, they have plenty of middle infielders capable of playing the positions at the AAA and AA levels.

Hopefully, when Freeman comes off the IL this week, his name is in the lineup on a daily basis. The organization needs to see if his bat can play at the major league level.

And if Brito is as good a hitter as scouts think, the Guardians need to figure out a way to find him a place to play in Cleveland.

Too Early To Make Judgments On Ex-Cleveland Players

In the new world we live in, especially related to how sports is covered around the nation, a lot of what people see is highlights, a flash of what really happens. In baseball, most times it is the big hit that influences the game the most.

And of course, the biggest of those types of batting achievements is the walk off hit.

Recently, former Cleveland players Will Benson, now with Cincinnati, and Nolan Jones, currently with Colorado, delivered those hits for their teams. And naturally, the Guards’ fans went crazy wondering why the team dealt those players away.

We think most of this angst comes from the trade of Yandy Diaz following the 2018 season. Diaz didn’t hit for much power with Cleveland (just a .366 slugging percentage), but did get on base to the tune of a .361 on base average.

And Diaz did hit .312 in 39 games with the team in 2018. The Cleveland front office then made a bad deal, sending him and Edwin Encarnacion (salary dump) in a three team deal for basically Jake Bauers and Carlos Santana.

With the Rays, Diaz has an 814 OPS, a .378 on base percentage, and even though he hit just one homer with Cleveland in 299 plate appearances, he has 50 dingers in four plus seasons with Tampa.

And this season, he has emerged as an MVP candidate, with a .405 OBP and 953 OPS.

However, that doesn’t mean all players the Guardians cut ties with will do the same. Take Jones, for example. Cleveland moved him in order to protect some minor league players from the Rule 5 Draft.

In the organization’s eyes, Will Brennan had surpassed Jones, and after a fast start when he was called up, after the all-star break, he batted .203 with a 535 OPS albeit in 59 at bats.

And what may be worse in the Guardians’ view, he struck out 22 times vs. two walks. Keep in mind, the Guards want players who make contact first, and then will teach them to drive the ball. We get it, sometimes that doesn’t work.

With the Rockies, Jones has 18 hits in his first 54 at-bats with four homers. That’s impressive. He’s also fanned 19 times vs. five walks. It is something that should be tracked as the season goes on.

You know how we feel, if a batter cannot control the strike zone, it’s a matter of time before pitchers will exploit that. In the meantime, 50 at bats isn’t nearly enough to say Jones is the next Ted Williams.

By the way, the player Cleveland received for Jones, Juan Brito is just 21 years old and has an 858 OPS between Lake County and Akron this season. He’s walked 34 times vs. 29 whiffs.

Benson was in the same boat as Jones, Cleveland needed to clear spots on the 40-man roster, so he was traded to the Reds. He had a late season trial with the Guardians getting 61 plate appearances, hitting .182 (10 for 55) with just one extra base hit.

He struck out in 19 at bats, walking just three times.

With the Reds this season, he is 15 for 64 (.234) with three extra base hits and has fanned 20 times vs. six walks.

Also, keep in mind, both Jones and Benson are playing in notoriously friendly hitters parks.

Both Jones and Benson have less than 100 plate appearances for their new teams to date, so perhaps people should save their judgment for later in the season.

Maybe they will be Yandy Diaz or maybe they will wind up being just what the Cleveland front office thought. Let’s let it play out before we condemn anyone.