Not Many Guards Have Track Records

The Cleveland Guardians were the youngest team in the league last year and won the American League Central Division championship.

It is certainly great to see a young team do so well, because it is a portent of things to come, but it also means it is tough to project for the following season because very few Guardian players have a track record.

First, from the team standpoint, the last time the youngest team in baseball made the playoffs was 1986, when the Mets did it and won the World Series. They finished second in the NL East in ’87, and won the division in ’88.

They were runners-up in the division the following two campaigns, and then fell into the abyss falling all the way to 59-103 in 1993.

The 1970 Cincinnati Reds were the youngest team in the league and lost the World Series to Baltimore, then fell to fourth in 1971. That team featured Johnny Bench (22), Dave Concepcion (22), Bernie Carbo (22), and Bobby Tolan (24). Heck, Tony Perez was just 28 and Pete Rose was 29 that season.

Following that dip, they reeled off a ten-year span where they won six division titles, three NL pennants and two world championships.

Here’s hoping that’s the future for the Guardians.

There is an old saying in baseball that players will for the most part put on the numbers that are on the back of their baseball cards. The only players on the Opening Day roster for Cleveland that have established levels of performance are Jose Ramirez, Josh Bell, and Amed Rosario among the everyday players.

Even Andres Gimenez, who was marvelous in ’22, has only had one season of over 210 plate appearances, and you guessed it, that was last season.

While we believe a player like Steven Kwan has the type of skill set that will allow him to succeed at the big-league level, there is no track record for him.

And as for players with shaky strikeout to walk ratios, like Oscar Gonzalez and Gimenez, it remains to be seen if they can improve that ratio with more experience.

Even with the pitching staff there is uncertainty. If Shane Bieber is healthy, and everything points to that this spring, he’s the ace. And actually, we feel strongly that is Aaron Civale can stay off the injured list, he gives the Guards a good chance in his starts.

We love Triston McKenzie, but he’s one year away from a season with a 4.95 ERA and some issues commanding the strike zone. We are confident in him, but there is a bit of uncertainty.

Zach Plesac? The question mark there is well used. His last two seasons have produced ERAs of 4.67 and 4.31. And he missed time both years with injuries. And can Cal Quantrill continue to win games despite a low strikeout percentage.

The bullpen is the most volatile part of a baseball team anyway, and the Guardians are no exception. Emanuel Clase’s stuff is ungodly, and James Karinchak is well, James Karinchak, but can Trevor Stephan pitch like he did a year ago? And what about Eli Morgan, who struggled in the last two months in ’22.

We know one thing, Terry Francona will give everything ample time to play out, and he will drive us fans crazy doing it.

We believe this is the start of a period of success for the Cleveland Guardians, but with so many relatively new players to the big leagues, we have some caution as well.

Some Free Agent Bargains For Guards?

Tomorrow will be February 1st, and that means it’s just a matter of time before baseball fans hear the first sign of spring: “Pitchers and catchers report to spring training”.

The Cleveland Guardians filled two holes this off-season, signing 1B/DH Josh Bell and C Mike Zunino as free agents, and both figure to get a lot of playing time, at least early in the 2023 campaign.

However, there are still some free agents sitting out there and a few of them could help the Guardians, and they could probably be signed at a bargain price, which is always attractive to the Cleveland ownership.

Here are a few guys we would be interested in:

We know the organization is committed to their young outfielders: Steven Kwan, Myles Straw, Oscar Gonzalez, and Will Brennan. However, it’s tough to overlook a player who can get on base like Robbie Grossman, who actually was in the Cleveland camp a few years ago.

The veteran switch-hitter, now 33 years old, has a career on-base percentage of .346, and against southpaws in his career, has a 790 OPS and gets on base at a .377 clip. He had a tough season a year ago, split between the Tigers and Braves, batting just .209, but had a 772 OPS in ’21 with Detroit, belting 23 home runs.

If Brennan isn’t ready or isn’t getting regular at-bats, or Gonzalez is having strike zone issues, he’d be someone who could step in. And that would also allow Will Benson to get regular playing time at AAA.

Another former Tigers piques our interest in the pitching department. With Anthony Gose probably missing the entire season, the Guardians could use another lefty out of the bullpen to go with Sam Hentges. Andrew Chafin would seem to be an ideal fit.

He appeared in 64 games for the Tigers last season, compiling a 2.83 ERA and striking out 67 hitters in 57-1/3 innings. And he had a 1.83 ERA for Oakland and the Cubs in 2021.

In his career, he’s held left-handed batters to a .222 batting average and a 603 OPS and his marks vs. right-handed batters are similar (.231 average/655 OPS). He would give Terry Francona another veteran option in relief.

We get the Guards had a lot of success with players coming up from the minor leagues a year ago, but even though the Cleveland farm system is very strong, that doesn’t happen every season, so it would be nice to fill a hole here and there with veteran alternatives.

In the past few seasons, we felt the Guardians needed outfielders badly, but the performance of the young players last year filled most of the holes. And we still believe Straw will rebound with a much better offensive season than a year ago.

We also normally like to add another experienced starting pitcher, but the organization has a plethora of prospects who could make a spot start early in the season if need be. We saw most of them a year ago, hurlers such as Cody Morris, Konnor Pilkington, Hunter Gaddis, and Xzavion Curry.

Still, it wouldn’t hurt anything to take a shot at either Grossman or Chafin. They could give the Guardians a lot of bang for their buck.

Hard To Gauge What Guardians’ Young Players Will Do

The Cleveland Guardians surprised everyone in northeast Ohio and frankly in baseball as well by winning 92 games and the AL Central Division title last season.

That has their fans very excited for the 2023 season because, after all, with a young core of position players and pitching staff that had the 4th best ERA in the American League, why wouldn’t they?

They also seemed to take care of their weak spots in their lineup. The DH spot was a huge hole because Franmil Reyes collapsed, and the catching spot was completely devoid of any offense, as they signed 1B/DH Josh Bell and C Mike Zunino as free agents.

However, there is an old saying in the game that a player’s statistics will match those on the back of their baseball card, meaning players have track records, and usually they will produce close to what they’ve done in the past.

Unfortunately, very few Guardians’ have a history of performance because they are so young. Of course, we know Jose Ramirez, if healthy, will be in the mix for the AL MVP. He has finished in top five in the voting four times in the last six years.

And you know what you are going to get from Amed Rosario too. He going to hit around .280 with a 700 OPS, and he’s going to not walk much.

Even Josh Naylor has only one season with more than 250 at bats at the big-league level.

The newcomers have been around for a while, so you can figure Bell is going to hit 20+ home runs, knock in around 80 or so, and have an OPS around 800. Zunino will hit the long ball more often than the Guardians’ catchers last season, but he will strike out. A lot.

We would all like to be optimistic about the young players who had marvelous seasons in 2022, but the truth is, we don’t know what Steven Kwan, Oscar Gonzalez, and even Andres Gimenez is going to do in 2023 for sure.

That doesn’t mean they will not be productive in 2023, but it’s difficult to count on each player to meet or exceed what they did in 2022.

Because we are a big believer that future success is based on knowledge of the strike zone, obviously we think Kwan has the best chance for improvement. We think he learned as the season progressed to pick his spots in driving the ball, so we think his slugging percentage will improve and he could approach or surpass 10 homers. Still, that’s not his game, so it needs to occur naturally.

Gonzalez is the opposite of Kwan, not walking much, but as we have suggested before, maybe Gonzalez is the Cleveland version of White Sox’ Tim Anderson, a hitter who succeeds with a poor strikeout to walk ratio. Still, he’s a player to watch.

Gimenez was spectacular last season, starting the All-Star Game and winning a Gold Glove, but it was also his first season with more that 210 plate appearances. His strikeout to walk ratio isn’t good (112:34) and his on base percentage (.371) was high because he was hit by a league high 25 pitches.

As proof it can happen, look at Myles Straw. In his first full year in the big leagues, 2021, Straw hit .271 with a .349 on base percentage. Last year, his second season, he hit .221 with a .291 OPS.

We aren’t saying everyone will regress, and quite frankly, we think Straw will rebound and be much better next year.

We are saying it is hard to judge players without a firm track record. For the most part, the pitching staff has that. It’s the offense that is more of a concern.

Guardians Going Free Agent Route Is A Bit Of A Surprise.

The Cleveland Guardians had two big needs heading into the post-season, another power bat and a catcher since Austin Hedges was a free agent.

It is a surprise that Chris Antonetti and Mike Chernoff filled both via free agency though, signing catcher Mike Zunino to catch, joining Josh Bell who came to the Guardians a week earlier.

Remember, Cleveland values defense and handling pitchers first and foremost from their backstops, and Zunino certainly is very good defensively. With a bat in his hand, think Hedges with a lot more power potential.

When Hedges first arrived in the big leagues with San Diego, he had some pop, hitting 18 homers in his first full year with the Padres, and then 14 in 91 games the following season. In the four years since, Hedges’ high in roundtrippers was 11 in 2019, and his best batting average was .178 with Cleveland in 2021.

Zunino does two things more frequently than the man he replaces: Hit dingers and strikeout. He missed much of last season after shoulder surgery, but since 2017, he belted more than 20 homers three times, including a career-high 33 in 2021. His lifetime slugging percentage is 79 points higher than Hedges.

However, his strikeout to walk ratio per 162 games is 196:39. As a comparison Hedges, who is one of the game’s worst hitters, has a ratio of 148:33. That’s how often Zunino fails to make contact.

We would not be surprised if prized catching prospect Bo Naylor (Guardians’ #3 prospect according to Baseball America) opened the season at AAA and another free agent signee, Meibrys Viloria, starts the year on the Opening Day roster as a left-handed hitting option behind the plate.

Not that Viloria is much of a hitter, he has a career OPS of 553, with a .201 batting average and three homers.

That the Guardians filled their biggest need via free agency means they haven’t addressed the glut of middle infield prospects. Yes, they did move Owen Miller to Milwaukee for a player to be named later or cash to clear a roster spot for Zunino, but they still have Gabriel Arias and Tyler Freeman, who both played in Cleveland for a bit, with Brayan Rocchio (#5 prospect) knocking on the door.

Not to mention what to do with the back end of the starting rotation. We believe Aaron Civale will be the fourth starter behind Shane Bieber, Triston McKenzie, and Cal Quantrill, but we wouldn’t be shocked if Zach Plesac is moved to make room for say, a Cody Morris.

If a move is made to thin out the prospect glut, what do the Guardians get in return? Younger prospects to guarantee a promising future, or do they someone on the big-league roster and try to upgrade the spot they are dealing from?

So, as a result of the Bell and Zunino additions, not only does Cleveland have a stronger major league roster, but they still have one of the five best farm systems in the sport.

That gives the front office a lot of options as spring training approaches. That’s an awful good position to be in.

Bell Fits Perfectly For Guardians

A couple of weeks ago, we wrote about what the Cleveland Guardians might be looking for this off-season and pointed out they have a “type”.

Really, it’s an organizational philosophy and the front office tries to stick to these principles when building their roster, and who can argue with them. They’ve had a lot of success over the past 10 years.

In that framework, Tuesday’s signing of 1B/DH Josh Bell makes all the sense in the world.

First, it’s a two-year deal with the potential of a buyout by Bell after the first season, meaning if the switch-hitter has a huge season, he’s going to be a free agent again after the 2023 campaign, but the Guardians will be the beneficiary of that big season.

They say there is no such thing as a bad one-year contract, so committing a lot of cash to a player for two years isn’t a tremendous risk for an organization who treasures payroll flexibility.

Second, the Guardians appear to be embracing a more contact-oriented approach, and no doubt it paid off for them in 2022. Bell fits the bill here too. His strikeout to walk ratio per 162 games is 118:77, a relatively low whiff rate for someone who averages 25 homers per year in that same span.

And readers of this site know we love hitters who have a good walk to strikeout rate. The Guardians need to walk more often, and Bell’s 81 free passes last season would have led Cleveland in 2022.

Bell also fills a couple positions of need. Cleveland hitters batted just .240 with a 646 OPS vs. left-handed pitching a year ago, and for his career, the new Guardian has a 767 OPS against southpaws, and last year hit .276 with an 816 OPS.

And remember, for most of the season, when Terry Francona gave Josh Naylor a day off against a tough lefty, his usual choice was Owen Miller. Bell is much better with a bat in his hands.

It goes without saying that having Bell as an option will allow Francona to keep Naylor’s legs fresh too.

A short-term deal for a power hitter who can play 1B/DH and has success against lefties? Sounds like a match made in heaven for Chris Antonetti and Mike Chernoff.

What does it mean for the rest of the roster? Well, right now, you have to wonder if Miller has a spot. It would seem he has a battle on his hands to make the team with Gabriel Arias. And don’t forget Tyler Freeman as well. One would think a trade is on the horizon for one, if not, more of those players.

You have to think getting at least one catcher is next on the agenda for the front office, and likely whoever they trade for, or sign will be an offensive upgrade. When your primary catcher had an OPS of 489, that’s not a big stretch.

After an off-season where the big moves were signing Luke Maile and Enyel De Los Santos, it’s good to see the organization understanding how close they were to getting to the AL Championship Series and a shot at another World Series visit.