Hard To Gauge What Guardians’ Young Players Will Do

The Cleveland Guardians surprised everyone in northeast Ohio and frankly in baseball as well by winning 92 games and the AL Central Division title last season.

That has their fans very excited for the 2023 season because, after all, with a young core of position players and pitching staff that had the 4th best ERA in the American League, why wouldn’t they?

They also seemed to take care of their weak spots in their lineup. The DH spot was a huge hole because Franmil Reyes collapsed, and the catching spot was completely devoid of any offense, as they signed 1B/DH Josh Bell and C Mike Zunino as free agents.

However, there is an old saying in the game that a player’s statistics will match those on the back of their baseball card, meaning players have track records, and usually they will produce close to what they’ve done in the past.

Unfortunately, very few Guardians’ have a history of performance because they are so young. Of course, we know Jose Ramirez, if healthy, will be in the mix for the AL MVP. He has finished in top five in the voting four times in the last six years.

And you know what you are going to get from Amed Rosario too. He going to hit around .280 with a 700 OPS, and he’s going to not walk much.

Even Josh Naylor has only one season with more than 250 at bats at the big-league level.

The newcomers have been around for a while, so you can figure Bell is going to hit 20+ home runs, knock in around 80 or so, and have an OPS around 800. Zunino will hit the long ball more often than the Guardians’ catchers last season, but he will strike out. A lot.

We would all like to be optimistic about the young players who had marvelous seasons in 2022, but the truth is, we don’t know what Steven Kwan, Oscar Gonzalez, and even Andres Gimenez is going to do in 2023 for sure.

That doesn’t mean they will not be productive in 2023, but it’s difficult to count on each player to meet or exceed what they did in 2022.

Because we are a big believer that future success is based on knowledge of the strike zone, obviously we think Kwan has the best chance for improvement. We think he learned as the season progressed to pick his spots in driving the ball, so we think his slugging percentage will improve and he could approach or surpass 10 homers. Still, that’s not his game, so it needs to occur naturally.

Gonzalez is the opposite of Kwan, not walking much, but as we have suggested before, maybe Gonzalez is the Cleveland version of White Sox’ Tim Anderson, a hitter who succeeds with a poor strikeout to walk ratio. Still, he’s a player to watch.

Gimenez was spectacular last season, starting the All-Star Game and winning a Gold Glove, but it was also his first season with more that 210 plate appearances. His strikeout to walk ratio isn’t good (112:34) and his on base percentage (.371) was high because he was hit by a league high 25 pitches.

As proof it can happen, look at Myles Straw. In his first full year in the big leagues, 2021, Straw hit .271 with a .349 on base percentage. Last year, his second season, he hit .221 with a .291 OPS.

We aren’t saying everyone will regress, and quite frankly, we think Straw will rebound and be much better next year.

We are saying it is hard to judge players without a firm track record. For the most part, the pitching staff has that. It’s the offense that is more of a concern.

Yes, Guards Need More Pop. They Need More Walks Too.

For all of the talk of “small ball” and lack of power, the Cleveland Guardians’ offense wasn’t terrible in 2022. They did rank 6th in the American League in runs scored at 4.31 and their team OPS of .699 ranked 7th and was just below the league average (701).

They were 6th in on base percentage, mostly because they ranked 4th in the AL in batting average at .254. They did rank 11th in slugging percentage and as we should all know by now they were second last in the Junior Circuit in home runs.

By now, even casual baseball fans know Cleveland is the hardest team in the major leagues to strike out. It’s funny that Andres Gimenez led the team in strikeouts with 112 and then Amed Rosario with 111. Third? That would be Franmil Reyes, who wasn’t on the team since the beginning of August.

We have talked about how we believe the Guardians need some pop before next season, and they could probably use a player who can fill in at 1B/OF/DH, preferably a right-handed hitter.

They could also use more walks. They were 11th in the AL in working bases on balls. And if you are going to preach contact, and we believe in that approach, then you would hope the hitters could be more selective at the dish.

Jose Ramirez led the team in walks with 69, a total that ranked ninth in the league. He was followed by Steven Kwan with 62 and then Myles Straw with 54. Remember that Ramirez got less and less patient as the year went on.

We would have to think Kwan will walk more with experience (and with umpires realizing he has a pretty good grasp of the zone), and Straw worked more in 2021 (67 times).

Hopefully, Gimenez can learn the strike zone better. He did have a .371 on base percentage, but that was more a product of being hit by a league high 25 pitches. He only drew 34 walks. As a comparison, Owen Miller worked 32 bases on balls.

Rosario doesn’t walk either, but he’s been around long enough to show he simply doesn’t have that skill set. His career high is just 31.

Josh Naylor’s walk percentage went up from 5.6% in ’21 to 7.6% in ’22, so perhaps he can improve that rate again.

Some of younger players have a track record of taking walks. Bo Naylor walked 82 times in the minor leagues last season. Will Brennan drew 50. Will Benson had a tough time because of sporadic playing time when he got to the bigs, but at AAA, he worked a team high 75 times.

And Tyler Freeman has a minor league on base percentage of .376.

Why more walks? If you don’t get a hit, but you walk, guess what? You don’t make an out. And you move the line along. Not to mention you make the opposing pitcher work more.

The contact approach would seem to go hand in hand with drawing more bases on balls.

So, having more power would certainly help, but getting more baserunners would help as well. We wouldn’t be surprised if this was something the Guardians’ front office took note of too.

Remember, MLB Post-Season Isn’t Supposed To Be Easy

Friday, the Cleveland Guardians will take the field in the American League Wild Card Series against the Tampa Bay Rays, trying to stop some recent post-season trends.

First, the Guards will be trying to break an eight-game losing skein in the playoffs. After winning the first two games of the Division Series against the Yankees in 2017, they lost the last three, and then lost three straight to Houston in the same round in 2018.

In 2020, Cleveland made the post-season in the truncated season, and lost both games in the best-of-three series vs. New York.

So, it has been a long time since October 6, 2017, when Yan Gomes knocked in Austin Jackson with the winning run in the 13th inning to put the Tribe up 2-0 in the best-of-five series.

With Bryan Shaw recently designated for assignment, the only member of the current team to have played in that game is Jose Ramirez.

This series won’t be easy, and really, it shouldn’t be. We have narrowed baseball to the best teams in each league, and there are only 12 teams still taking the field. None of the games the rest of the year will have the Kansas City Royals or Los Angeles Angels involved.

Cleveland has a slight edge offensively, scoring 4.28 runs per game, ranking 6th in the AL, while the Rays cross the plate 4.12 times per contest, 11th best in the league.

Pitching wise though, the Tampa is 3rd in the Junior Circuit in ERA, just ahead of Terry Francona’s group. The three starting pitchers the Guardians will face are no pushovers.

In game one, Tampa will go with Shane McClanahan (12-8, 2.54 ERA, 194 strikeouts in 166-1/2 innings), who started the All-Star Game for the American League. He’s a southpaw, and the Guardians hit 17 points less, and have an OPS as a team that is 68 points worse against left-handers than righties for the season.

Of course, it’s not as though Cleveland is starting a slouch, going with Shane Bieber who went 13-8 with a 2.88 ERA. In the second half, those numbers are even better (9-3, 2.48). Bieber does pitch better on the road, going 5-5 with a 3.22 ERA at Progressive Field.

McClanahan actually pitched better on the road but made eight less starts there.

Bieber has made one post-season start, pitching 4-2/3 innings giving up seven runs to the Yankees in 2020.

Game 2 features Tyler Glasnow, who missed most of this year recovering from Tommy John surgery (two starts allowing one earned run in 6-2/3 frames) against Triston McKenzie (11-11, 2.96 ERA). McKenzie’s ERA was a half run lower in the second half and was better at the corner of Carnegie and Ontario this season.

And if there is a deciding game on Sunday, Tampa goes with Drew Rasmussen (11-7, 2.84 ERA) while Francona counters with Cal Quantrill (15-5, 3.38).

You can see neither team has a decided advantage in the pitching department, even at closer. While Emmanuel Clase was tremendous (42 saves, 1.36 ERA), Pete Fairbanks had a 1.13 ERA and 38 strikeouts in 24 innings this season.

It is likely going to come down to executing on offense, moving runners over and taking the extra base when the opportunity arises.

Although the networks seem to have banished this series to non-rating game times, this might be the most intriguing series to watch.

It won’t be easy. But it’s the playoffs, it shouldn’t be.

Five Big Wins For Guardians This Year

It was an improbable road to the Central Division championship for the Cleveland Guardians. Most folks thought Terry Francona’s squad would be around the .500 mark, yet here they are, poised to begin the playoffs Friday at Progressive Field.

All the victories, and it appears they will win more than 90 games, are important, but to us, some were more relevant than others.

Here are our five most impactful triumphs for the Guardians this season.

Game 3, April 10th: Cleveland 17, Kansas City 3

After scoring one run in the first two games, the Guardians exploded for six runs in the first and four in the second, highlighted by Oscar Mercado’s grand slam home run. Owen Miller started at first for Bobby Bradley, who started the first two games, and Steven Kwan went five for five in a portent of things to come.

Miller had three hits and four RBIs and became a fixture in the lineup for a while. Bradley never got back in the lineup, and this was the first step toward a more contact-oriented approach for the Guards’ offense.

By the end of that week, Yu Chang came down with COVID, and he never got his job back either, as Andres Gimenez became a fixture.

Cleveland scored 27 runs over the next three games.

Game 29, May 9th: Cleveland 12 Chicago 9, 11 innings

This was the Josh Naylor game. After losing 7 in a row to the Yankees and Angels, Cleveland won 7 of 9, going into Chicago.

The Guardians trailed 8-2 going into the ninth, but got two back on a Gimenez home run and an error. With two outs, Miller singled to load the bases, and Josh Naylor hit a grand slam off All-Star closer Liam Hendricks to tie it, and hit a three-run shot off Ryan Burr to give the Guards a 12-9 lead in the 11th.

Cleveland lost the next two, but this one demonstrated the Guardians never thought they were out of a game.

Game 61, June 19th: Cleveland 5, Los Angeles Dodgers 3

Francona’s club started a key nine game trek to Colorado, LA, and Minnesota by sweeping the Rockies and splitting the first two with the mighty Dodgers. Jose Ramirez missed the last two games of the series, including this one.

Trailing 3-2 going into the top of the 8th, the Guards tied it on a pinch-hit double by Richie Palacios, and then scored two off LA closer Craig Kimbrel on a Gimenez single and a sacrifice fly by Ernie Clement, subbing for Ramirez.

Emmanuel Clase pitched a 1-2-3 ninth, and the Guardians wound up 7-2 on the trip.

Game 101, July 31st: Cleveland 5, Tampa Bay 3

The Guardians were going with a bullpen game because Aaron Civale was hurt, while the Rays started All-Star Game starter Shane McClanahan.

The Guards worked the southpaw hard, making him throw 96 pitches in 4-1/3 innings, scoring three in the 2nd and two in the 5th. Myles Straw had a two-run single in the second, and Austin Hedges had the single in the fifth to provide the cushion.

Unsung hero Kirk McCarty threw 3-1/3 frames allowing one run, before Eli Morgan, Trevor Stephan, and Clase finished off Tampa.

Game 136, September 9th: Cleveland 7, Minnesota 6

Cleveland took the division lead on August 10th and had a four-game edge on August 25th before a disastrous stretch against Seattle and Baltimore, where they lost 8 of 10.

Heading into Target Field with a two-game advantage, the Guards took an early lead on a Naylor single and a three-run homer by Oscar Gonzalez. That lead stretched to 7-0 after four and a half before the Twins rallied with two runs in the 5th, 6th, and 8th innings.

The 8th inning was highlighted by Twins’ skipper Rocco Baldelli checking James Karinchak’s hair for sticky materials.

Clase finished it in the 9th and the Guards swept Minnesota, practically ending Minnesota’s hopes.

All wins were important to be sure, but to us, these had deeper meanings for the 2022 Guardians. Hopefully, more important ones are still on the horizon.

Analyzing The Guards’ Offensive Woes.

The Cleveland Guardians raised their record to 66-56 on August 24th when they beat San Diego 7-0. Since then, it has not been pretty for Terry Francona’s squad and ugly for the offense.

Cleveland has lost 8 of 11 since that win, scoring more than three runs in a game just three times (all of the wins) and being shutout four times in that span.

Seven of those contests were against Seattle, with the Mariners taking six, but we would not say the Guardians were dominated, but their hitters were. Two of the games went to extra innings, and in three others, Mariners’ hitters could muster only three runs in each game.

They’ve had more than one extra base hit in just four of the last 11, winning three of the four. And they have just three home runs, all coming in wins–Jose Ramirez connected in the 4-3 win at Seattle, and Josh Naylor hit one in the 5-1 win over the Orioles, and another in last night’s win over Kansas City

The Guardians don’t walk much (enough) as a team any way, ranking 12th in the American League, but the base on balls have hard to come by too. They’ve drawn more than three walks in just two games, but Sunday night’s game was one, as they drew five, but two of those were intentional in the 10th inning.

They’ve had nine hits in half of the games, but without mixing in some doubles, triples, and homers, it’s very difficult to score unless you string hits together, which currently they are not doing.

The Guardians don’t hit the long ball but are 6th in the AL in doubles and 3rd in triples, so they have extra base hit ability, but it has disappeared as of late.

It doesn’t seem like any more help will be coming from the farm system either. Despite the offensive issues, when the rosters expanded to 28 on September 1st, the Guards brought up Ernie Clement, who was hitting .238 in AAA, and was sent to the minors because he hit .203 with the big club.

Clement seems to be superfluous on a roster that already has Owen Miller and Tyler Freeman on it, especially when the latter has problem getting at bats.

Nolan Jones and/or Will Brennan (.360 OBP/801 OPS) would seem to be better fits, particularly with Oscar Gonzalez in a bit of a slump and Myles Straw in a massive one.

We’ve all seen the numbers on Straw. He’s hit .159 (382 OPS) since the All-Star break, and we’ve said this repeatedly over the years, it doesn’t matter how good you are defensively (and Straw is very, very good), if you can’t hit, you can’t play regularly in the major leagues.

Apparently, unless you play for Cleveland.

We aren’t sure if Will Benson can succeed in the bigs, but he’s received just 42 plate appearances over the last month, so it’s not like he’s received a real big chance.

We also know about the offensive issues at the catcher’s spot, except for Luke Maile’s hot August nights (nod to Neil Diamond), so the 8th and 9th spots in the batting order have become designated outs for opposing pitchers.

The frustration for fans is the lack of activity by the manager or the front office. We respect and acknowledge Francona’s impact on this team, but we’ve also said his biggest weakness is his patience can turn into stubbornness.

Despite all this, the Guardians are still tied for first in the Central. If they can start scoring runs again, they can still be playing in October.

No Need To Fix Baseball, It Will Fix Itself. We Hope

We love the game of baseball. We’ve loved it since we remembered seeing our first game way back in 1965.

And despite living in northeast Ohio, where a winning baseball team didn’t come around for 30 years, our love for the summer sport never waned.

However, right now baseball is under attack and the surprising thing is, it seems to be attacking itself. Over the last few years, they have enacted and proposed some rule changes, and some we like, and others seem to be gimmicky.

For example, we like the universal DH. The argument that the National League game had more strategy is hogwash. For the most part, if there was a runner on base with less than two out and the pitcher was coming up, he was bunting. That’s not deep thinking.

And the “double switch” isn’t rocket science either.

We also like the proposed time clock in between pitches. When people have complained about the length of games, we’ve said for years the problem was batters stepping out of the box after every pitch to supposedly adjust some kind of equipment.

Get in the box, stay in the box and for pitchers, get the sign and throw the pitch.

It seems though like the people who run baseball are kind of just throwing crap at a wall and seeing what’s going to stick: Pitchers have to face three batters, putting a runner at second for no reason to start extra-inning games, and the one we really don’t like…banning the shift.

We find it unconscionable that a rule will prevent a team from playing defense the best way. What’s next, telling Shane Bieber he can only throw his knuckle-curve once per at bat?

This year, we’ve seen the Guardians go “old school” and go back to a contact approach, putting the ball in play. Jose Ramirez is pretty much a dead pull hitter. Teams shift on him in every single at bat.

You know what? He’s still hitting .283 on the season. Why? Because he’s a good hitter. He doesn’t strikeout a lot. Yes, he gets some hits taken away by the shift, and a couple of teams have employed four outfielders against him. He still gets hits.

In our opinion, getting rid of the shift rewards the bad hitters, the ones who refuse to make adjustments and keep trying to pull outside pitches. That’s more inferior hitting than great pitching.

The new schedule also seems weird. We understand that having three wild card teams means playing in a weak division is an advantage because you play teams 19 times, but it wasn’t an issue in the AL East for a long time when the Yankees and Red Sox had the edge because the Orioles, Rays, and Blue Jays were in a down cycle.

The talking heads don’t like it now because the Twins, Guardians, Brewers, and Cardinals now have that advantage.

We’d also like to see if fans really like interleague play. Yes, it’s good to see Yankees-Mets, Giants-A’s, Cubs-White Sox, but is anyone clamoring for Guardians-Rockies? Instead, we think fans here would like to see the Yanks and Red Sox more often. They aren’t getting that with this new format.

It’s like the folks who say college basketball is better than the professional version. Yes, if you are comparing Duke-North Carolina to watching the Kings and Rockets do battle.

But what about the Bucks-Celtics vs. say, Eastern Michigan play Dayton?

We are stuck with the schedule, but let’s hope smarter people get together on the shift and keep it. It will take a while, but eventually, players will learn to hit the right way again and the sport will be better for it.

Guardians Among The Best At Their Positions

We are a big fan of the website, baseball-reference.com, and we look at it at least once a day, qualifying us, we guess, as a baseball nerd.

In their version of WAR (wins above replacement), the Cleveland Guardians rank in the top three in the American League in four positions: Second base, shortstop, leftfield, and third base.

It is probably shocking that the hot corner is the spot they are third, behind Boston (Rafael Devers) and Houston (Alec Bregman), because Cleveland’s best player, Jose Ramirez mans that position.

It would probably also surprise you that the Guardians leader in WAR is not Ramirez, but Andres Gimenez.

Disclaimer alert here: One of our problems with WAR is that it is weighted to middle of the diamond players. Still, it is something to use in comparing players and their importance to a team.

When the Guardians acquired Gimenez in the trade that sent Francisco Lindor to the Mets, we felt he was the key to the deal. He was a top prospect and came to the big leagues at age 21, hitting .263 with a 732 OPS in 49 games of the COVID shortened season.

We did not anticipate this kind of season though. Now 23, he made the All Star in his first full big league season and should get Gold Glove consideration at second base.

All this after he hit .218 (633 OPS) a year ago.

His on base percentage (.375) has been propped up by becoming a magnet for pitched balls (16 HBP), but after having a strikeout to walk ratio of 31:4 in April and May, since then it is 51:19, still not great, but an improvement.

Amed Rosario seemingly doesn’t get on base enough (.320) to hit second, and doesn’t have a lot of pop either (.409 slugging percentage with just 36 extra base hits), but he has been a huge factor in the Guardians’ rise to first place to date in the AL Central.

Last season, he was frankly below average defensively at short, the most important position in the infield, but he has improved to the point he makes the routine plays. With the Guardians’ glut of middle infield prospects, we don’t know how long Rosario will play his current position, or even remain with the Guardians, but he has made a big impact on this team.

We discussed bringing up Steven Kwan at the end of last year (with Oscar Gonzalez), but he was in the lineup on Opening Day, with only Terry Francona seemingly being surprised, and hasn’t let go of the job.

He has done what we thought he could do, that is make contact and get on base. He has a .372 on base percentage and has walked more than he has struck out. And he has a respectable .393 slugging percentage. He’s been a perfect table setter for this lineup.

And of course, you have the remarkable Ramirez, who probably will finish in the top three of the MVP voting for the fourth time in the last six years.

He leads the AL in doubles, is second in RBIs, tied for sixth in triples, and second in extra base hits. And let’s not forget, he is the undisputed leader in the clubhouse. The way he plays the game rubs off on everyone on the roster.

These four players have had tremendous seasons. Looking at them in no way minimizes the contributions of others, but this quartet have been among the best in the AL at their respective positions.

Early Or Not, Guardians Deserve A Chance To Compete

In the last week or so, we’ve read and heard some things about the Cleveland Guardians being ahead of schedule. These people are saying the front office felt like 2023 was the year they could contend for the post-season again.

Our guess is if these folks are in the know, meaning they have talked to high-ranking officials in the Cleveland front office, they are setting up supporters of the team for a disappointing trade deadline.

Look, the truth of the matter is the Guardians are a very young baseball team. Statistically, they are the youngest team in the majors, a half year younger than Pittsburgh among everyday players, and they have the youngest pitching staff in the big leagues, almost a year younger than the Tigers.

We are sure that president Chris Antonetti and GM Mike Chernoff will not and should not break up the Guardians’ young core, players like Jose Ramirez, Andres Gimenez, Josh Naylor, Triston McKenzie, and Emmanuel Clase. Those guys seem like the foundation for the next few seasons.

On the other hand, the fact is the Guards are sitting just a game out of first place and we are in late July. Future contention isn’t a given either. You don’t know about injuries, poor seasons, and like it or not, the way the ball bounces in a given year.

We are sure the Cleveland brass is looking at ways to help this year’s team. The organization still has a glut of middle infielders both at the big league and high minor league levels, and the last we checked, you can still only play one shortstop and one second baseman per game.

So eventually, the team has to make a decision about Amed Rosario, Gimenez, Gabriel Arias, Tyler Freeman, and Brayan Rocchio. We have been on record in feeling Arias would be the first one of this group moved.

With Aaron Civale out until August, the Guardians could use another starting pitcher and another bullpen arm wouldn’t hurt, with Eli Morgan and Bryan Shaw leaking oil.

Right now, Cleveland might have Kirk McCarty starting Tuesday night at Fenway Park, which is a scary proposition, considering he’s allowed six homers in 12 innings at the Major League level this season.

Of course, that’s due to the rainouts, but the replacement for Civale is rookie Konnor Pilkington. The southpaw has been okay, but he’s hasn’t produced like the other starters.

There have been rumors about dealing DH Franmil Reyes, citing lack of conditioning or perhaps the willingness to get in better shape. More likely, the Guardians figure Josh Naylor can play more often if he’s not on his feet defensively, and Reyes’ increased strikeout rate this season has made it easier to put him on the bench.

Even though the Guardians are ahead of schedule, that doesn’t make it okay for the front office not to improve the club. Maybe they have benefited from being in a division without a great team, but here they are, right in the thick of it with less than 70 games to go.

And you can’t underestimate the boost it can give a team when they know the front office believes in it enough to add to the roster.

In 1995, Cleveland didn’t need to do anything at the deadline, they are ahead by 20 plus games, but GM John Hart traded for Ken Hill anyway. The players said it signaled the organization wasn’t satisfied with making the playoffs, they wanted the ring.

So, whether they are on schedule or not, the front office should be willing to give this 2022 edition of the Guardians a chance to compete for the post-season. You go for it when you have a shot.

Dreaming Of Soto In Cleveland (It Won’t Happen, But We Can Dream)

By now, everyone is aware that Washington Nationals’ slugger Juan Soto will likely be traded before the August 2nd trade deadline. His agent, who quite enjoys seeing his name in lights, turned down a 15-year, $440 million offer from the Nats.

Washington will be looking for a boatload of prospects in exchange for the 23-year-old (he won’t turn 24 until after this season) slugger, and so the Cleveland Guardians, who may have the deepest farm system in the game were linked to Soto in some articles.

Now, let’s start by saying we understand the likelihood of Cleveland dealing for Soto is extremely slim. That’s not how this organization has done business over the years. Heck, Jose Ramirez left a lot of cash on the table to remain in town for hopefully, the rest of his career.

However, should the Guardians be interested, especially with the supposed influx of cash coming into the team from new minority owner David Blitzer?

If ever any team would make a gigantic financial commitment to a young player, it would seem to be Juan Soto, who again will start next season at age 24.

Soto led the National League last season in on base percentage at .465, and has already belted 118 home runs in his five years in the big leagues.

And he’s 23-years-old. The prime seasons for a typical major league baseball player are age 27 to 29, meaning Soto should still be getting better over the next few seasons. He was a seven win player last season.

If there is anyone a team like the Guardians would be willing to deal top prospects from a loaded farm system, it would be someone like Soto, and it’s not like Cleveland would have to deal every one of their current top ten either.

We talk ourselves into thinking that every minor player who puts up big numbers is going to wind up playing their way into Cooperstown. That’s simply not the case.

Here were Cleveland’s top prospects five years ago (2017):

Francisco Mejia
Bradley Zimmer
Triston McKenzie
Brady Aiken
Bobby Bradley
Yu Chang
Will Benson
Nolan Jones
Erik Gonzalez
Greg Allen

Granted, in 2017, the Cleveland farm system was not nearly as good and deep as it is now. Certainly, McKenzie has paid off, and hopefully Jones will too. And Mejia was used to get Brad Hand.

You have to figure Washington would want George Valera in a deal for Soto, so if you packaged him with say, Gabriel Arias and Logan Allen in the trade, you still have a very good prospect pool to work with.

Everybody loves Valera, and with good reason. At 21, he’s hitting .272 with 13 homers (857 OPS) at AA Akron, in a pitchers’ league. But will he ever be as good as Soto?

The equalizer is you would get six years of service from Valera, while Soto has only 2-1/2 years before he is eligible for free agency and with his agent being who he is, he’s going to take that route.

We have two points here. First, not all prospects, no matter how highly we think of them turn out to be superstars.

Second, if you can move prospects, even highly regarded ones, for a young, proven superstar, it should be considered. Let’s say Soto winds up being as good as Mike Trout. What would you give up for the last five or six years Trout put together. (Don’t consider the Angels’ record, that’s not Trout’s fault).

Guards’ Offense, Record Sagging

A few weeks ago, the Cleveland Guardians were on a roll, and so was their offense. They had won 17 out of 21 games and there hitting ranked in the top three or four in the American League in runs scored.

Now the Guards are scuffling. They’ve lost 11 out of 15, and they have dropped to seventh in the league in runs scored at 4.29 per contest. Since an 11-10 victory over Minnesota at Target Field on June 22nd, Cleveland has scored just 39 runs in the 15 games played hence, an average of 2.6 per game.

That’s not going to win a lot of ballgames.

However, the team remains in the post-season race, although their only opportunity will likely be as the AL Central Division winner. And as of today, they are still just 4.5 games behind Minnesota.

Jose Ramirez is in a bit of a down cycle, hitting just .232 (13 for 56, 630 OPS) over the past 14 days, knocking in just one run.

But it’s not Ramirez that should be blamed, he’s basically carried the team since day one of the season.

The league average OPS is 699, and besides Ramirez, the only hitters way above that Terry Francona can put in the lineup everyday are Josh Naylor (842) and Andres Gimenez (834). And Naylor needs periodic rest for the leg he shattered last season, so there are days he is not available.

The Guardians really seem to miss rookie Oscar Gonzalez, who although he was slumping when he got hurt, had given them a spark. Even though he tailed off, he still has a 746 OPS with 14 extra base hits in 130 plate appearances.

The next two highest OPS figures among the everyday players are right at the league average. Steven Kwan, who has a .357 on base percentage, which is very good considering he is leading off, and Amed Rosario, who although he has been hot is still sitting with a 701 OPS.

Again, Rosario has a solid batting average at .276, but he doesn’t walk, in fact, pitchers seems to have to really work to walk him, he keeps swinging at pitches outside the zone, and he is slugging just ,383.

He only has 20 extra base hits for the year.

Franmil Reyes seems to be heating up, but he’s still has a 606 OPS, mostly because he’s walked just 12 times all season, but has fanned 80 times.

Although the Guardians have struck out the least number of times in the AL, they haven’t walked a lot, ranking just 10th in the league. The next step for the offense is learning the zone, perhaps players like Kwan will set an example.

Myles Straw in particular has stopped walking. He had drawn 27 walks through the end of May, but has taken just 11 free passes since. And he’s hitting just .122 in the last month. The offense is missing his on base capabilities.

Cleveland will hit the half way point of the schedule this weekend in Kansas City, so we can certainly say it’s not early anymore. And although they rid themselves of the swing and miss players like Bobby Bradley, Bradley Zimmer, and Yu Chang, there are still too many holes in the batting order.

How long before we see Nolan Jones and/or Tyler Freeman on the big league roster? You have the get more production from the hitting.