Five All-Stars, But Another Starter Sent To The Minors

The Cleveland Guardians have one of the best records in the American League to date, so it figures they would be well represented on the AL All-Star team.

The Guardians are sending five players. Jose Ramirez and Emmanuel Clase are kind of perennials, with Ramirez making his sixth mid-summer classic, and Clase has now made three in a row.

With his .364 batting average and 956 OPS, Steven Kwan was a shoo-in to be named to the team, and it was a bonus that he was elected as a starter, meaning Cleveland will have two starters as Ramirez will also be in the starting lineup.

Josh Naylor was picked for the first time, although he was probably snubbed a year ago when he was hitting .305 with 11 homers and 64 RBIs at the break. This season he has even more ribbies (3rd in the AL with 66) and has already set a new career high in circuit clouts with 21.

The biggest surprise was David Fry, who started the season as basically a platoon player, but has put up tremendous numbers with a .305 batting average (920 OPS), 8 HR and 33 RBIs. The super utility player came into the 2024 season with 113 big league plate appearances, and has already caught, and played 1B, 3B, LF, and RF for Steven Vogt this season.

Even with the good news regarding the honoring of several players, the Guardians made another move involving their starting rotation over the weekend.

Logan Allen was sent back to AAA after compiling a 5.67 ERA over 18 starts. Allen allowed 100 hits and 35 walks over the 87.1 innings he has thrown this season, and has given up 18 home runs, tied for third most in the AL (FYI, Triston McKenzie is 2nd in this department).

Because of ineffectiveness or injury, the Guardians are now without three of the pitchers who began the year in the starting rotation. Based on that, it has to be considered rather amazing that the Guards sit at the top of the Central Division standings.

Since the All-Star game is next week and teams are off through next Thursday, it will allow both Allen and McKenzie to get an extra start in AAA before they are needed after the San Diego series coming out of the break.

It gives the organization a chance to regroup, so to speak, and the only immediate question will be who starts Thursday afternoon in Detroit, which would be Allen’s turn.

Gavin Williams gave the team 5.1 innings last night, and if Ben Lively and Tanner Bibee can give the team length tonight and tomorrow, this could be the scenario for Thursday.

We could see a combination of Pedro Avila and newcomer Spencer Howard in the series’ finale. Howard, a right-hander, was picked up over the weekend from San Francisco, after posting a 5.63 ERA in 24 innings with the Giants.

For his career, he has a 6.93 ERA in 139 innings, allowing 170 hits in those frames, so let’s just say we are less than enthusiastic about the move. Even worse, in his only AL experience with Texas, he posted an 8.37 ERA.

On June 24th, he did pitch 4.2 innings against the Cubs, not allowing a run and fanning eight, so there’s that.

Let’s hope the organization can find something that works for him, but they may have dealt for him with the idea of getting the team through the all-star break.

If You Want To Complain About The Guardians, Have A Legit Beef

We are often asked if it is easier to write about a team when they are playing well or struggling, and it’s a simple answer really, when a team is not playing well, you are always able to write about things they can do to improve.

Currently, the Cleveland Guardians sit at 480-26 and have a seven game lead in the AL Central over Minnesota and 7.5 games over Kansas City. They have a nine game lead in the loss column.

Yet, we continue to read from folks how players currently at Columbus could help them. Offensively, there are two things a player can do, get on base and move runners who are already on base (i.e. on base percentage and slugging percentage).

The current average on base average in the American League is .309. Of the players who get the most at bats on the Guardians, there is one player who falls well below that threshold, Bo Naylor, currently at .253.

The average slugging percentage is .393. There are many Guardians who fall below the league average in this department, but as a team, Cleveland sits at .401, most due to the efforts of Jose Ramirez (.521), Josh Naylor (.502) and Steven Kwan (.545).

One thing people do is look at minor league statistics and equate them to the big leagues. That, of course, is ridiculous. The minor leagues are the minor leagues for a reason, the best players in the sport aren’t there. So, if you look at what a player is doing in Columbus, you have to figure those numbers will come down when they get to the big club.

We’ve seen it already. Kyle Manzardo was raking in AAA and then struggled with the Guardians. He was walking at a very high rate in the minors, and then had a 23:3 strikeout to walk ratio in the bigs.

We are guilty of it too, but we try to look at the biggest weakness of the team compared to the rest of the league. Right now, the Cleveland starting rotation has the worst WAR in the AL. That’s why the front office should be trying to upgrade that spot.

For the record, the other spots where the Guardians are below average are at catcher and in right field. Everywhere else, including the two spots most people seem to refer to, shortstop and centerfield, they are better or at league average.

The organization has done a great job promoting Daniel Schneemann, who was red hot at AAA, and so far, his offensive success has carried over to the big-league level. It helps that he is versatile enough to play all over the diamond.

If you are a contending team, and no doubt the Guardians are that sure you might catch lightning in a bottle with a minor league prospect, but the reality says you need to get someone who has had major league success.

We like developing players like everyone else, but if we are going to give up a higher tier prospect, we want to fill the biggest hole on the current roster. And right now, that’s the rotation.

Yes, Gavin Williams should be back soon, but really, we hope he pitches like he did a year ago, but it wouldn’t be prudent for the organization to put all their eggs in that basket.

If you want to give up a top five or even top ten player in your organization, you go get a proven big-league starter. One that can pitch in a playoff series.

You don’t bank on prospects.

Can’t Focus On One Thing In Evaluating Baseball Players

Baseball is changing, and we don’t mean the rule changes put forth by the commissioner a few years ago. For the record, we like the pitch clock and don’t have an issue with limiting the number of pick off throws by a pitcher.

As for the “ghost runner” in extra innings? Well, you can’t win them all, right Rob Manfred?

Over the past 40 years, there have been many new statistics, most of them add a lot to the game and give more information as to how valuable a player can be. Others, such as numbers reflecting expected numbers, tell both fans and front offices to be patient with players, particularly young ones.

A statistic that has come under fire recently, mostly because of a comment made by ESPN’s Michael Wilbon, is exit velocity. Quite frankly, it is cool to measure how hard players are hitting the baseball.

One issue among some fans is they take a number like exit velocity, and it is the only thing they look at. For Cleveland fans, Steven Kwan has a very low exit velocity, but there is no question he is a good hitter.

Two-time batting champ (and hitting for a high average still helps teams) Luis Arraez also doesn’t hit the ball that hard. Yet, in an interview a couple of years ago, Shane Bieber said he was one of the players he hated to face.

The point is while it is something that can be measured, it really has nothing to do with how good a player is performing.

We hear this locally when hearing about Guardians’ infielder Gabriel Arias. His fans constantly point out how hard he hits the baseball. Unfortunately, he doesn’t hit it all that often. He has an average exit velo of 89.8, and a hard hit rate of 39.7%. He also strikes out 31.7% of the time.

Compare those number to Kwan, a much more accomplished hitter. His exit velocity average is 82.3 MPH, and his hard hit percentage is 18%.

Let’s compare Arias to a less accomplished major league player, Tyler Freeman. He has an average exit velocity of 89.1 MPH, a tick below Arias, and his hard-hit percentage is 41.4%. His K rate is just 15.9%.

Those numbers would indicate why the Guardians’ front office have stayed with Freeman longer despite struggling early this year.

By the way, the Guardian who ranks 7th in hard hit percentage. It’s Jose Ramirez. And Arias’ exit velocity is also a tad higher than Ramirez. The difference is the five-time all-star only strikes out in 11.3% of his plate appearances.

We understand to market itself, especially to younger fans, baseball tries to point out excitement, the spectacular play, the rocket off the bat, etc. However, lost in that is what helps teams win games, which is the object of the sport.

It’s not sexy or exciting to hit a ground ball to the right side to move a runner to third base with less than two outs or hit a sacrifice fly, but it helps winning.

Sabermetrics is a good thing, but it seems to have gone overboard. A recent question about what the biggest problem about baseball was recently asked, and someone said the overuse of analytics in today’s game.

There were a lot of responses agreeing with that sentiment.

The point is in evaluating players there are many things to look at, no one should focus on just one. And also, people need to remember the game is not a skills competition, they keep score for a reason.

Viewing The Guards After 27 Games.

The Cleveland Guardians played their 27th game last night in Atlanta, hitting the 1/6th point of the season with an incredible 19-8 record. The Guards were 13-14 last season at this point, continuing a tradition of break-even early season records under Terry Francona.

We are sure even Steven Vogt himself would not have imagined the start this year’s squad is off to, especially after Shane Bieber had two excellent starts and then injured his elbow and will have to miss the balance of the season.

The biggest difference is the offense, averaging over a run a game better than 2023 (5.19 vs. 4.03). Is that sustainable? Only time will tell, but the Guardians are getting better production out of two of their weakest spots a year ago in catcher and centerfield.

Austin Hedges still can’t hit, but Bo Naylor and David Fry have provided more better production. That combo is tied for the team lead in walks with 10 and belted three home runs.

In center, it wasn’t hard to get better hitting with Myles Straw being one of the worst offensive players in the American League, so having Tyler Freeman being a capable bat so far with 3 homers and a 697 OPS is a help.

In terms of WAR (wins above replacement), Cleveland has five spots (1B, 2B, LF, CF, and DH) among the top three in the AL. Last season for the entire year, they had just two: 2B and LF.

Of course, the four mainstays, Jose Ramirez, Josh Naylor, Andres Gimenez, and Steven Kwan, have remained productive, although Ramirez hasn’t really been hot yet. He is second in the AL in RBIs though.

The Guardians still don’t strike out a lot, 4th least in the league, and they are third from the bottom in drawing walks. But they lead the league in doubles, are tied for second in stolen bases, and are second in the AL in slugging percentage.

We would like to see more walks as the season progresses, and less hit by pitches, another category Cleveland leads the league in.

The primary concern for this team right now is the starting pitching, which outside of Bieber’s two starts has been underwhelming. The great Bill James used to say (probably still does) a pitcher who allowed less hits than innings pitched and struck out twice as many as he walked was a good pitcher.

Based on that criterion, the Guards have one good starter, Ben Lively, and he’s only made two starts due to a late start out of spring training. If the Guardians are going to be serious contenders, they will need a lot more out of the starting rotation.

To date, Cleveland has issued 93 walks on the season, 7th most in the AL. Of that total, 53 (58%) have been issued by Triston McKenzie (17), Carlos Carrasco (13), Tanner Bibee (12), and Logan Allen (11).

Because of that, the starters can’t go deep into games creating a heavy and probably not sustainable toll on the bullpen. McKenzie has only allowed 20 hits in his 22 innings of work, but the walks are just killing him.

Last night, Bibee probably had Cleveland’s best start of the year, going seven shutout frames against a very good Braves’ offense.

Right now, four Guardians relievers (Emmanuel Clase, Hunter Gaddis, Scott Barlow, and Nick Sandlin) rank tied for 3rd in appearances. Vogt has done a good job limiting innings, as Clase leads in innings pitched with 14, but eventually you have to think it will be a detriment to success.

The Guardians’ start is a welcome surprise, and really it has been a total team effort. It’s not like someone has had an unbelievable start. And they have only played three games against the 1962 Mets-like Chicago White Sox.

So far, the improvement is there and there is no reason it cannot continue.

Guardians’ Season Preview In Our “Perspective”

To say the Cleveland Guardians had a very quiet off-season would be an understatement. The biggest news around the franchise was the hiring of a new manager. For the first time since the end of the 2012 season, someone besides Terry Francona is running the club.

In terms of personnel, the front office didn’t exactly build up last year’s roster for new skipper Steven Vogt. The biggest trades brought in Scott Barlow to bolster the bullpen, and they took a shot on a heretofore failed Yankee prospect in Estevan Florial.

But as the regular season opens tonight in Oakland, the obvious question is will the Guardians resemble the young upstarts that won the American League Central Division in 2022, or the squad that was a disappointment in ’23 with a 76-86 record?

How They Can Win. This probably starts with good health for the pitching staff. The Guards lost Shane Bieber and Triston McKenzie for good chunks of the season a year ago, and if they stay healthy, the rotation should be in good shape.

We say that even though there are three sophomores in the rotation. Tanner Bibee was second in the AL Rookie Of The Year voting last year, and Gavin Williams looks like an ace in waiting. Logan Allen is a solid fifth starter.

The bullpen added Barlow, who has closed in the past with Kansas City, to go with Emmanuel Clase, which should lessen the burden on the latter.

The offense is improved with upgrades at catcher in Bo Naylor, and they should get better production out of centerfield (Myles Straw was one of the game’s worst hitters a year ago) and the RF/DH spot which were black holes last season.

And Jose Ramirez approaches the type of season he had in 2021 (36 HR, 103 RBI, 893 OPS) and Steven Kwan and Andres Gimenez produce closer to their 2022 campaigns.

And most importantly, Kyle Manzardo and Chase DeLauter get called up around the All-Star break and give the hitting yet another boost.

Why They Won’t. The offense isn’t any better than the 12th in runs scored last season and the front office is still searching for answers.

Ramon Laureano shows why the A’s released him last season, and when Manzardo and DeLauter make their much-anticipated debuts, they struggle to find consistency.

And the search for the next everyday shortstop continues as neither Brayan Rocchio nor Gabriel Arias seize the job.

The young starters of a year ago take a step backwards and the rotation is in flux. The bullpen, save for Clase, proves ineffectively and Nick Sandlin and Eli Morgan continue to give up gopher balls by the bushel.

This causes the trade of Bieber before the deadline and signals the beginning of a new “rebuild” behind Ramirez, Manzardo, DeLauter, Juan Brito, etc.

What Do We Think? This team appears to be a .500 ballclub. The good news is the division is awful. The Twins suffered losses and the White Sox are in total rebuild move. The Tigers are trying to contend, but also kind of overachieved a year ago, and the Royals’ pitching is still an issue, although they are spending money (sigh, what could have been).

We think the Guardians will finish with between 78-84 wins, which could be enough to get them in the post-season.

And we definitely think by the end of the year, both Manzardo and DeLauter will be wearing Cleveland uniforms.

What Is Plan B To Help Guardians Score Runs?

The first clue came at Guardians’ Fest when owner Paul Dolan said the reason for not signing any free agent outfielders is they wanted to give the young players in the farm system a chance.

Then in the past few days, manager Steven Vogt and president Chris Antonetti mentioned the same thing.

To us, this is a pretty risky plan especially if the organization has designs on making the playoffs. Remember, this shouldn’t be a “rebuild”, they won the division title just two years ago with the youngest roster in the sport.

It is universally known that the Guardians have a problem scoring runs, ranking 12th in the American League a year ago. We believe to have a solid major league lineup, a team needs to have six, maybe even seven solid bats in the batting order.

In our opinion, right now, the Guards have four: Jose Ramirez of course, Josh Naylor, Steven Kwan, and Andres Gimenez. Bo Naylor showed promise a year ago, but he has less than 250 big league at bats, and can’t be counted as of yet.

And we are pressing the definition of “solid” with Kwan (710 OPS) and Gimenez (712 OPS), each would be the 6th or 7th best hitters on very good hitting teams.

The front office could have signed a veteran free agent to a one-year contract (there are no such things as bad one-year deals) to add a proven stick to the order. Players like J.D. Martinez (career 874 OPS) and Tommy Pham (786 OPS) are still on the market.

Cleveland acquired Estevan Florial from New York over the winter and he had a big year in AAA last season and was a former top 100 prospect. George Valera has also been on this list, but he’s never been in the big leagues and has battled injuries the last two seasons.

Otherwise, the candidates the team is depending aren’t on the list of the top prospects in the game, nor are they on the Guardians’ top 10 list, at least among the outfielders.

So, our question is this: What is Plan B if none of the young players the brass is talking about come through in 2024?

In 2022, Will Brennan slashed 371/479/850 in the minor leagues, at both the AA and AAA levels. Last year, in the big leagues, Brennan had a 655 OPS, with both the on base and pop he showed in the minors in ’22 having disappeared.

This isn’t to say Brennan is a bust, for right now, we simply will call it growing pains, but the fact remains he didn’t provide much offense for the Guardians last season.

In three seasons at AAA, Florial has slashed 358/490/848, similar numbers to Brennan. And although he has only 134 plate appearances in the big leagues, he has a 609 OPS, striking out 41 times.

Another hopeful is Johnathan Rodriguez, who in 47 games at Columbus last season was outstanding 376/560/936. With 476 plate appearances in AA, his numbers are 334/497/831. Solid, but not overwhelming.

Jhonkensy Noel, a minor league slugger, is also in the mix, but in a full season at Columbus last year put up these numbers: 303/420/723.

Kyle Manzardo is a Guardians’ top 10 prospect, and it seems like the organization wants him to start in AAA. Perhaps, it’s because he’s not already on the 40-man roster. In AAA last season, he had an 802 OPS.

And no, we don’t consider a player with a 676 OPS a year ago to be a solid bat. We are talking about Ramon Laureano, claimed on waivers from Oakland last season in August. His last season with an OPS over 750 was 2021.

Could things fall into place and Brennan bounces back, Bo Naylor continues to hit like he did in the second half last season, and Brayan Rocchio hits like he has in winter ball? Of course, and if that happens, the offensive woes could be solved.

We like having a backup plan, though. Of course, that costs money. Hence the problem for the front office.

Stuff We Would Like To See Guardians Do in 2024

It is pretty clear to us that the Cleveland Guardians aren’t going to make any impact moves before spring training starts in two and a half weeks.

They did make a small move over the weekend, bringing back Carlos Carrasco on a minor league contract, and of course, he has a chance to open the season with the big club. While we are happy to see Carrasco return, as he was a longtime fan favorite, but this is a classic move by the franchise. We aren’t trying to improve the roster, but we’ll do the ticket buyers a favor and bring back an old popular player.

Carrasco spent parts of 11 seasons with Cleveland, winning 88 games for the home team. He led the American League in wins in 2017, and of course (in the pantheon of Cleveland what ifs), missed the World Series run in 2016 with a broken hand after he went 11-8 with a 3.32 ERA.

Many Carrasco can give the Guardians a turn back the clock moment and be a solid fifth starter in 2024.

All that said, if the Guardians don’t make any moves before camp starts, here are some things we would like to see in the 2024 season.

Enhance The Running Game. Cleveland finished third in the AL in steals last season with 151, but we think they can and should run more, particularly with the famous lack of power. Andres Gimenez led the Guards with 30, and Jose Ramirez was next with 28.

While we really don’t want Ramirez to run more because he’s getting older, but why can’t Gimenez, Steven Kwan, and if he plays, Myles Straw run and steal more. Newcomer Estevan Florial stole 25 bases in AAA last year. We think they try not to run with Ramirez coming up, but early in games, why not?

If as a team, you aren’t going to get a lot of extra base hits, why not take extra bases in the steal game?

Find Out Once And For All. We don’t have a plan on this (we do, but what we think doesn’t matter), but the Guardians need to find at bats for Tyler Freeman to find out if he can be a big-league player.

Freeman’s minor league number show he can hit, .311 batting average, .382 on base percentage, 812 OPS. However, he has just 254 plate appearances in the big leagues since his initial call up on August 3, 2022. He had just two instances where he had four at bats in back-to-back games in 2023.

There have been reports he has worked in the outfield this winter, so perhaps he becomes a “super utility” player, getting a lot of at bats filling in at different positions. For a team looking for hitters, it is curious how they have treated Freeman.

Cool It on Defense. Without a doubt, defense in baseball is important. However, you also have to be able to contribute with a bat in your hands. In recent years for the Guardians, defense has been perhaps too much of a factor in getting playing time.

Straw was one of the worst offensive players in the game a year ago, and the Guardians gave up over 500 plate appearances. Cam Gallagher got almost 150 at bats last season despite hitting .126.

If you want to put elite defenders on the field, get a lead, and then put them in after the sixth inning, and in the meantime, put someone in the batter’s box who has a decent chance of contributing on offense.

It will be interesting to see how new skipper Steven Vogt handles issues like these or will it be organizational group think going forward.

Dolan’s Comments Seems Like Rebuilding Year For Guardians

The Cleveland Guardians celebrated their annual winter festival over the weekend, a time to look forward to the upcoming baseball season. It’s a great time for the fans, who get to see their favorite players again after three and a half months.

The team’s resident superstar Jose Ramirez was there. Fan favorite Josh Naylor and brother Bo made an appearance, and the Guards’ new skipper, Steven Vogt, interacted with ticket payers and media people alike.

It was a great time to talk baseball during the cold northeast Ohio winter, and of course, the weather cooperated by providing a snowstorm.

And then, someone put a microphone in front of team owner Paul Dolan. Dolan did say the team is always looking for ways to improve, but seemed to imply the improvement would come “internally and organically” with the young guys coming up from the farm system.

And thus, a wet blanket was put over the event.

Look, we get a team like the Guardians (at least in their own head) have to have a farm system that is producing in order to field a contending team. However, even if you are going to depend on rookies and/or second year players, if you fancy yourself as a contender, you add veterans who can contribute in case the inexperienced players aren’t quite ready.

We know the Guardians need outfield help. Since the end of the 2023 campaign, they resigned Ramon Laureano, who they acquired on waivers in August, and traded with the Yankees for Estevan Florial, who was a top 100 prospect. In 2019.

We reviewed the organization’s top ten prospect list from Baseball America and we see three outfielders–

Chase DeLauter is the top prospect, but he has only played a handful of games above the High A level, and could be ready late this season. Key word there is could.

George Valera has been on prospect lists since 2020, but has had injury issues the past two seasons and has never played more than 100 games in a minor league season. If he can stay healthy in 2024, perhaps he’s another player who can be in Cleveland by the end of this season.

The third OF is 19-year-old Jaison Chourio, who played mostly in the Arizona Rookie Leauge last year. He’s aways away.

So, it’s not like the Guardians have one of the game’s best prospects ready to step in the lineup on Opening Day. In fact, there has been talk that the readiest minor league player, Kyle Manzardo, might start the year in AAA.

Plenty of players who made these top prospect lists never pan out, and others who don’t make them wind up being real good major league players. Ramirez never appeared on the Top 100 prospect list and he has been one of the best players in the game over the last six years.

Yes, there is still time to sign a veteran outfielder to help the team’s hitting before spring training starts, and actually, there are still good candidates remaining on the market.

But to us, going entirely with your farm system to fill this void, and not having highly tiered prospects ready to go, reeks of a rebuilding team. The Guardians are not a team that is several years away from success, they won the Central in 2022.

Perhaps any warmth fans received at the event over the weekend was the hot air coming out of the team’s owner.

The public relations department of the Guardians don’t get paid enough to spin whatever comes out of the owners’ mouth.

Guardians Seem To Have Changed Philosophy On Hitting

About 10 years ago, the Cleveland Guardians developed a philosophy about hitting. The theory was it was easier to teach a good contact hitter to hit for power than it was to instruct a power hitter to make more contact.

The prime examples were Jose Ramirez, who hit a grand total of 13 home runs in the minor leagues (216 in the majors) and Francisco Lindor, who’s high in the minor leagues was 11 dingers, and by his second full year in the bigs, belted 33.

Kyle Manzardo, who came in the Aaron Civale deal, also fits this profile. He struck out in 18% of his plate appearances last season and hit 17 homers.

As everyone is aware by now, the Guardians were last in the major leagues in home runs in 2023, so what moves they have made have involved getting power, but they are getting players with high strikeout rates and low walk rates.

Why do we focus on this? Because generally, those players can be pitched to, meaning pitchers aren’t dumb and if they realize they can retire a hitter without throwing him a strike, then they probably won’t.

Not to pick on Amed Rosario, but how many times did we watch him strikeout without the pitcher throwing a ball in the strike zone? We realize the game has changed (not all changes are for the good) and hitters sell out to hit more home runs, but sometimes you can score without getting a hit. Can’t do that with a strikeout.

It’s not impossible for a hitter to succeed with that profile, but it isn’t the norm.

For example, Oscar Gonzalez struck out almost six times as much as he walked in the minor leagues. His first year in the bigs, he hit .296 with 11 homers, but he did fan 75 times with just 15 walks.

His next year? He hit .214 with two round-trippers and struck nine times more than he walked (46:5). It will be interesting to see how the Yankees will handle him.

This off-season, the Guardians elevated Johnathan Rodriguez to the 40 man roster. He has hit 55 home runs the past two minor league seasons, including 29 last season at the AA and AAA levels. He did strike out in 29% of his plate appearance last season in the minors. That’s the bad news.

The good news is his walk rate was the highest of his minor league career. Perhaps that’s a good sign.

The same is true with Estevan Florial, acquired from the Yankees the day after Christmas. Florial hit 28 dingers at AAA last season with a career high 66 walks. He did strikeout in 30% of his plate appearances in the minors a year ago.

The Guardians do a lot of touting of Gabriel Arias, because he has a very strong exit velocity when he hits the ball. However, that’s the problem. He whiffed in 32.8% of his at bats for the Cleveland a year ago.

In addition to being last in the majors in home runs last season, the Guardians also struck out the least. However, it is possible hit for power and not whiff excessively.

Of the top ten in the lowest number of strikeouts last year, five teams made the playoffs, including the Braves, who led the majors in home runs with 307, and Houston, who were fifth in the bigs in runs scored.

We have our doubts that the new power with high strikeout rates will work for the Guardians. We think they should focus on getting more men on base, a higher on-base percentage.

Of the teams with the 10 worst OBP in the sport in 2023, none made the playoffs. Maybe there is a correlation there.

Guardians Still Need Offense

The Cleveland Guardians had an issue scoring runs last season. They ranked 12th in the American League in runs scored in 2023 and were last in the league in home runs.

The Toronto Blue Jays scored the least runs of the teams that made the post-season, and they scored 84 more times than Cleveland did. Although pitching is the name of the game in Major League Baseball, you have to score runs to win in the regular season.

The off-season player movement cycle has moved slower than normal this year in the sport because everyone is waiting for Shohei Ohtani to sign, which he did about a week ago.

To date, the Guardians’ front office has done nothing to improve the hitting and frankly, seems to be depending on the young starting pitching getting better through experience.

The Guards were 10th in on base percentage and 14th in slugging percentage. So they need help, and a lot of it in both areas.

We have said this before, but we feel you need seven solid bats in a lineup to have an contending team’s offense. Right now, we would say Cleveland has five: Jose Ramirez, Josh Naylor, Steven Kwan, Andres Gimenez, and Bo Naylor, although remember, the younger Naylor has less than a full season’s experience.

Right now, the lineup would look something like this:

Kwan LF
Gimenez 2B
Ramirez 3B
J. Naylor DH
Laureano RF
B. Naylor C
Manzardo 1B
Arias SS
Straw CF

Of course, that what the Guardians will likely do, not what we would do. We understand folks are high on Kyle Manzardo, who came from Tampa Bay in the Aaron Civale deal, but the reality is he doesn’t have a single big league at bat.

As for Arias, we don’t think any hitter with a 32% strikeout rate will ever wind up being a solid bat, no matter how hard he hits the ball when he does make contact. And we have seen Straw the past two seasons, with his OPS under 600 in each of those years.

Laureano will likely platoon with Will Brennan in right field, and both are similar, neither has a lot of pop, and neither walk a lot. Those two attributes make up to be a mediocre offensive player.

Given the financial restraints (although they are not as severe as the ownership says they are) of the Guardians, what free agents would make sense for Cleveland?

We would be intrigued by Brandon Belt, but he plays the same position as Josh Naylor, and we believe the Guardians have to give Manzardo a shot unless he is terrible in spring training.

A one-year deal for a veteran like J.D. Martinez (33 HR and 893 OPS with the Dodgers) would make sense, if he is willing to take one year. Martinez could DH and play some LF (with Kwan sliding over to CF) and provide some right-handed power the Guardians sorely need.

Mitch Garver, formerly of the Twins and Rangers is also intriguing, although he is more of a catcher/DH which would make it tougher for Manzardo to get at-bats. Garver hit 19 dingers in 344 plate appearances for Texas last year.

Even though he’s a left-handed hitter, what about taking a chance on Austin Meadows, who has battled injuries the last two seasons, playing just 42 games for Detroit. In his last full season in 2021, he did hit 27 homers and knock in 106 for Tampa Bay. He’s likely looking for an incentive laden “prove it” deal.

There have been reports that Tyler Freeman has started working out in the outfield in Goodyear, and no doubt we would love to see the front office give him a full shot at an everyday spot based on his minor league numbers. Our guess is they are looking at him in LF with again Kwan moving to the middle of the outfield.

In any case, Cleveland’s offensive needs are exactly what they were when the regular season ended. And spring training will start six weeks after the holiday season ends.

The Guardians’ fans are waiting.