Why Tribe Can’t Stand Pat

The second half of the baseball season starts tomorrow night, and the Cleveland Indians are in good position to make the playoffs.

They have a 6-1/2 game lead in the American League Central Division and after they return from the trip they start tomorrow, they will play 39 of their last 65 contests at Progressive Field.

So, the question is does the Tribe need to make a move before the July 31st trading deadline? After all, they lead the AL in ERA and rank third in the league in runs scored per game.

Don’t they have enough on the current roster to win the division? Isn’t Michael Brantley getting ready to come back, giving the team an added bat?

The reason is simply this…president Chris Antonetti, GM Mike Chernoff, and skipper Terry Francona cannot assume that everything that went well in the first half is going to continue after the All Star break.

Jose Ramirez has been arguably the team’s most valuable player in the first half, filling in for Brantley and hitting .295 with a 769 OPS. His prior career high in these categories is .262 with a 646 OPS.

Now, Ramirez is just 23 years old and is improving day by day as he should be, but what if he wears down because this is the most he’s played at the big league level?

Tyler Naquin was a solid hitter in the minors, but what he has done at the big league level is eye popping. He has a 965 OPS and 21 extra base hits in 159 at bats. Even the most ardent supporter of the rookie can’t think that’s going to continue.

Lonnie Chisenhall is 27 years old now and should be entering the prime of his career. He entered the break hitting .299 with a 819 OPS, both highs for his time in the bigs.

He has had hot streaks like this before, though. In 2014, Chisenhall was hitting .332 with 9 HR and 41 RBI in the first half of the year. After that, he hit .218 with an OPS of 591.

You have to have an alternative if this happens again. We aren’t saying it will, but you have to be ready.

Rajai Davis (35 years old) and Mike Napoli (34) have been huge for the Indians in the first half, but Francona has leaned on them a lot, probably more than he planned going into the season, but Brantley’s injury and the suspensions of Abraham Almonte and Marlon Byrd changed those plans.

The front office has to be prepared for a possible fall off in production from that duo.

And while Brantley should be back by at latest the beginning of August, there is no telling if he will hit like the guy who finished 3rd in the MVP voting in 2014. There may be a period of adjustment or he may wind up being 75%. Still a solid player, but not producing like normal.

Look, we aren’t saying all of these players will decline in the second half, but a good front office has to anticipate that things will go wrong. Getting another bat will allow Francona to give some players a rest and that player could be plugged in if someone regresses after the break.

And it never hurts to upgrade your bullpen, but that has been addressed before.

Yes, the Indians have good chemistry and have a very good team. However, you can still make it better.

The Tribe needs to do everything it can to win the division and avoid the dreaded, one game wild card playoff.

That’s why you make a move. It may just put you in the World Series.

Youth Is Served: Lindor, Ramirez Are Pacing Tribe Attack

The Cleveland Indians completed the first third of its schedule last night with a 7-1 victory over the Kansas City Royals.

It gave the Tribe their 30th win of the season, putting them on a pace to win 90 games this season. We would say that would give them a pretty good shot at their first playoff appearance since 2013.

Terry Francona’s club does have the third best ERA in the American League, which is kind of expected because this squad is built around their pitching staff, particularly the starting rotation.

The surprise is the Indians rank 4th in the AL in runs scored per game, and they have done it without Michael Brantley, who has played just 11 games this season.

Despite the veteran acquisitions over the winter, signing Mike Napoli, Rajai Davis, and Juan Uribe, the offense is being led by two kids, 22-year-old Francisco Lindor, and 23-year-old Jose Ramirez.

This is not to minimize Napoli’s presence in the middle of the order. He is on pace to belt 30 home runs and knock in over 100, something the Tribe has lack since the days of Travis Hafner and Victor Martinez.

And by the way, Napoli has more RBIs right now than the man everyone wanted the Indians to trade for in the off-season, the White Sox’ Todd Frazier.

But we digress.

It was expected that Lindor would be a key to the 2016 Indians, but most people figured he would have a slight decline offensively, since his big league numbers far exceeded his hitting stats in the minors.

We have been preaching about how special the shortstop is since his minor league days, and it appears he is one of those athletes who gets better when the lights are brighter.

The switch-hitter is batting .308 (804 OPS) with 5 HRs and 26 RBI and it seems he provides a sparkling defensive play each and every night. And his enthusiasm for the game is contagious.

Even at 22, he is an unquestioned leader on this ballclub.

He has now played 152 games at the big league level and has a .311 batting average, with 17 HR and 77 RBI (824 OPS).

And he should get even better.

The folks in the front office at Carnegie and Ontario should be thinking of tying his guy up for a long, long time, because his price tag goes up each and every day.

Ramirez is the bigger surprise, since he figured to be a utility player once the regular season started. The injury to Brantley put him in an everyday role, and he has flourished.

Also, a switch-hitter, JRam struggled last year playing shortstop, which is not his natural position. He was hitting under .200 and not making the routine plays defensively.

This year, he has made the step up, playing everyday at either LF or 3B, he’s hitting .317 with an 846 OPS, and is among the top ten in the AL in on base percentage at .387.

And at 23, you have to figure he will get better as well.

This isn’t to minimize others contributions to the Indians’ early success. Josh Tomlin is 8-1, Danny Salazar has become one of the AL’s best starters, we have talked about Napoli, and Jason Kipnis has played, like, well, Jason Kipnis.

The catalysts, at least offensively, have been Lindor and Ramirez.

And with guys like Bradley Zimmer, Clint Frazier (hitting over .300 in the pitching rich Eastern League), Giovanny Urshela, Mike Clevinger, etc., the Cleveland Indians are poised to make some noise in the American League.

That includes this season.

Looking Forward to Hot Stove Season, Hopefully So is Tribe Front Office.

The hot stove season in baseball will start in about a week, as soon as the World Series between the Giants and Royals concludes.

As we have mentioned previously, the Indians’ front office should be inspired by Kansas City’s success because in reality the difference between the Tribe and the new American League champions isn’t that great, although the Royals’ payroll is higher than Cleveland’s.

Right now, the Indians are stuck in the middle in both offense and defense, ranking 7th in the league in runs scored and 6th in the AL in ERA. If you parley that with a defense that ranks among the worst in baseball, and it is clear that standing pat in not an option for GM Chris Antonetti.

The good thing is outside of catching the baseball, the Tribe doesn’t need a massive improvement in any one area, but it is clear they have to do something.

The defense was better toward the end of the year when Jose Ramirez came up to play shortstop, but the field is littered with subpar defenders. In the infield, both Lonnie Chisenhall and Jason Kipnis are below average defenders and the Tribe could use an upgrade in rightfield too.

Keep in mind, the team’s best prospect, Francisco Lindor is considered an excellent defender and at third base, another prospect who likely will move into the organization’s top ten, 3B Giovanny Urshela, is considered a good glove too.

Due to the Indians’ normal way of thinking, neither is expected to open the season in Cleveland, so help will have to come from other areas.

There have been some interesting ideas of what the Tribe could do this off-season, but our favorite was mentioned last Sunday in the The Plain Dealer by Paul Hoynes, who said it would not be impossible for Antonetti to deal CF Michael Bourn, if the Indians were willing to pay some of his large contract for 2015, something we have advocated for awhile.

That would open up CF for Ramirez and that move would allow Lindor to take over at SS. Ramirez is still very young (22), and has played a little outfield in the minor leagues, and putting him in the middle of the diamond, where he is used to being, should help any transition go rather smoothly. And because of his age, he should be getting better offensively as opposed to Bourn, who seems to be in a decline phase at the plate, and on the base paths.

It would also be helpful to add a productive right-handed hitter to go with Yan Gomes. The current roster is very susceptible to left-handed pitching and they can’t count on Ryan Raburn hitting like he did in 2013. Looking at his numbers from the last three years, that season looks out-of-place.

On the mound, Antonetti can’t count on the same starting pitching he received in August and September to occur the entire season, because there aren’t a lot of extended track records among Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, Danny Salazar, Trevor Bauer, and T.J. House. They simply have to go out and get another arm for the rotation.

How do they accomplish this? They either have to be willing to deal some minor league prospects (not Lindor) and also spend a little money, or at least re-allocate the funds they are currently spending. However, they can’t just add a David Murphy type over the winter and call it a day.

Hopefully, it should be a fun winter for Tribe fans, but based on the history of this front office, they will stick to their usual plan of wishing and hoping.

The Time for Lindor is Next Monday

Next week the major league baseball rosters can expand to 40 active players, and the Cleveland Indians will be faced with a very difficult decision, one we think they will make a mistake with.

Their prized prospect, SS Francisco Lindor, could be called up to the big leagues, but we think the Tribe will pass on that at this time and will cite having to add him to the 40 man roster and that he wouldn’t receive enough playing time to justify the move.

In our opinion, the real reason is the Indians do not want to start the service clock on the prized prospect by calling him up now. They are also hoping that Lindor struggles a little in spring training next year, so they can justify not bringing him up until the time has passed so he doesn’t receive a full year service in 2015.

We believe that is shortsighted thinking, and Lindor should make his MLB debut on Monday afternoon against the Tigers at Progressive Field. Why? Because he makes the Tribe better right now.

In 121 games combined at Akron and Columbus, the switch-hitter is hitting .278 with 10 HR and 60 RBI, stealing 28 bases. He has had contact issues at AAA, striking out 31 times in 144 at bats, walking just six times.

However, up until his time at Columbus, he has had a very good strikeout to walk ratio.

Defensively, Lindor is rated as an excellent defender and could combine with Jose Ramirez to field a dynamic duo with the glove up the middle for the rest of the year and going forward.

Could Lindor be ruined by coming up to the bigs and failing? Of course, anything is possible, but the folks at Baseball Prospectus feel the 20-year-old’s make up is off the charts.

Look at his progress at AAA. He’s hitting .278 in the state capital, but to get there he overcame a slow start.

As for playing time, we have a perfect solution.

Right now, Chris Dickerson is still receiving an inordinate amount of at bats with the Tribe, and Terry Francona could easily move the current DH, Zach Walters to RF, and give Jason Kipnis some DH at bats (before moving his to another spot), in order to give Lindor some at bats.

Therefore, the question would be could Lindor do more with the bat than Dickerson, who has hit .179 since the All Star Game. Based on that figure, we are pretty sure he could.

He and Ramirez would also add some much-needed speed to the Cleveland lineup.

As for the service time issue, do what Tampa Bay did with Evan Longoria and Houston did with Jonathan Singleton. That would be signing him to a long-term deal right away to take him out of the arbitration process and a little beyond. He would have to be interested if offered a 8-10 year deal before playing a month in the major leagues.

The added bonus would be finding out if he can play in the big leagues now, allowing the team to make the appropriate plans in the winter. We don’t doubt he can, but it doesn’t hurt to make sure.

It will also create some buzz around town too. Baseball fans have been waiting for the shortstop to arrive and it may put a few extra people in the seats at Progressive Field with Lindor’s debut.

The guess here is the Tribe will take the safe route with one of the game’s best prospects. That’s the path they normally take.