A Tribe Post Mortem

The Cleveland Indians season came to a disappointing end in the American League Division Series for the second straight year, and this time they can’t even complain about blowing the series.

Giving up 21 runs in a three game series, while scoring only 6 doesn’t make anyone wistful about what might have been.

We were worried about the Tribe’s offense throughout the season, and our worst fears came true, as the Indians got just three hits in each of the first two games, and had only four yesterday until the Astros blew the game open off the Cleveland bullpen, which by the way, was another concern.

The offense was top heavy all year long, buoyed by excellent seasons by Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez, and Michael Brantley. When Ramirez’ bat went AWOL around the middle of August, the offense really sputtered.

One thing that is needed during the winter is the addition of some solid, consistent bats to pick up the slack with that trio, and Brantley may not be back, isn’t hot.

While we all look at statistics, particularly the new ones, the analytics people need to realize that going 4 for 5 on a given night, and following it up with a couple of 0 for 4s, makes you 4 for 13 (.308 batting average), but you didn’t do anything offensively on two of those nights.

This year’s Tribe had too many players (Yonder Alonso, Jason Kipnis, anyone playing centerfield and rightfield) who did nothing at the plate on a nightly basis.

Chris Antonetti and GM Mike Chernoff have a lot of spots in the lineup that need an upgrade.

And while the starting rotation is the cornerstone of the team, the bullpen will need a massive overhaul. Brad Hand and Adam Cimber will return, but beyond that duo, who knows?

Cody Allen and Andrew Miller are free agents, and it is doubtful they will be back.

Terry Francona tried to force Trevor Bauer into the Miller 2016 role in the series, but Bauer is a starter, and being moved out of his normal role didn’t work.

He did it because he no longer trusted Allen and Miller to get big outs when needed.

And speaking of the skipper, he needs to do some internal auditing as well.

The patience vs. stubbornness fine line continues to be an issue. He wanted Miller to be the ’16 edition when he brought him out of the bullpen in Game 2, and probably pulled Carlos Carrasco too early as a result.

But that Miller disappeared midway through last season. Hoping he would come back didn’t help against Houston.

Perhaps there should be a dissenting voice on the staff. The current staff has been with Tito for awhile, and they probably think a lot alike. Sometimes, it’s good to look at things with a different slant.

The first order of business will be the free agents. If Brantley wants to stay on a one or two year deal, we would welcome him back. Let’s face it though, he’s declined defensively, and ideally should spend much of his time at DH.

However, the Tribe has Edwin Encarnacion for another season.

The contention window is not closing. The Indians still have a strong rotation, and still have two of the top ten players in the sport in Lindor and Ramirez. However, you can’t have below average players everywhere else and get to where you want to go.

That and rebuilding the bullpen are the biggest jobs the front office has this winter.

For Tribe fans, this loss with sting until spring training begins in mid-February.

A Tough Series Ahead For Tribe

Tomorrow afternoon, the Cleveland Indians start their quest to end a 70 year drought without a World Series title.

To make matters tougher, they embark on the journey having to take on the defending World Series titlists, the Houston Astros, in the best of five Division Series.

We could be completely wrong on this, because well, baseball, but we feel it will be a very difficult series for the Tribe to emerge victorious.

The Astros lead the American League in run differential, meaning them, not the 108 win Boston Red Sox are the best team in the AL.

The Indians’ hallmark is their pitching, particularly their starters. Their staff ERA is 3.77, ranking 4th in the American League. However, Houston led the league in that category, more than a half run per game less at 3.11.

Cleveland has scored more runs, but only 21 more than the Astros on the season.

The teams are very similar offensively. The Indians scored three runs or less 58 times, which is over 1/3rd of their games. That seems like a lot, right?

Except the Astros did the same thing more often, having 64 games with three runs or less.

Using the 350/450/800 standard for being a very good offensive player, the Indians have three such players (Francisco Lindor, Michael Brantley, and Jose Ramirez), while the Astros have two in Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman.

Houston comes in as the hotter team, going 21-6 after September 1st, while the Indians went 14-14. But as we found out last year, being hot coming into the playoffs makes absolutely no difference.

As we said, both teams have exceptional starting pitching, and in our opinion, that’s what the series will come down to. Corey Kluber won 20 games this year, but at times has appeared mortal this season. His game one mound opponent, Justin Verlander, quite frankly had a better season.

The two teams met seven times in the regular season, with Houston having a 4-3 advantage.

In Houston, all three games were close. The Indians were either tied or ahead through 6-1/2 innings in each contest, and a tired starter gave up runs late. Remember, at that time, the Cleveland bullpen was having major issues.

At Progressive Field, Houston won in blowout fashion in the first two games, the latter with the Astros scoring 11 runs in the last two innings.

Even in the extra inning win the day before Memorial Day, the Tribe led 3-2 after seven, before Houston scored six in the 8th, matched by a five run rally in the bottom of the ninth by the Indians.

In that game, Trevor Bauer was left in to throw a season high 127 pitches.

So, this series could hinge on how well Allen, Miller, and Hand do. Only Allen was fully healthy at the time. Miller was about to go on the DL, and Hand was in San Diego.

If Ramirez doesn’t start hitting in this series, the offense could depend on whether or not Josh Donaldson can contribute.

The record says the Astros are better than the Tribe, but last year it said the Indians were the better team than New York.

We say it will be a great series, and these two teams are more evenly matched than it appears record wise.

If we have to make a prediction, we would go with the Astros in four. We also can’t tell you how wrong we would like to be.

Champion Tribe Still Has Offensive Questions.

It’s been a baseball season filled with ups and downs for the Cleveland Indians, but since they reside in the American League Central Division, Terry Francona’s squad coasted to the division title, the first team to clinch that spot in the big leagues this season.

We have said it all season, the Tribe lineup is very top heavy, and the team is in the top three in the AL in runs scored because of SS Francisco Lindor, 3B/2B Jose Ramirez, LF Michael Brantley, and to a lesser extent DH Edwin Encarnacion.

Beyond that quartet, there have been some hot streaks by other players, but you know it has been a tough season for many of the Indians’ hitters, when Melky Cabrera’s signing was important.

Over the last month, Lindor and Ramirez have regressed from their superman status offensively, Lindor kind of being a normal human being, while Ramirez has been in a slump.

That has made it difficult for the Indians to maintain a solid offense for the last four to six weeks.

If Josh Donaldson can be even close to the player he was in 2015 and 2016, he brings an additional impact to the lineup. And that is needed because the Indians rank in the lower third of the league in WAR at several positions.

They are second last in the AL in centerfield, fourth from the bottom in rightfield, and rank 10th (out of 15) at second base.

That’s why the front office gambled on Donaldson. That moves Ramirez to second, an upgrade, and Jason Kipnis, who isn’t having a great year, to center, where his off year is better than what the Tribe has had to use in the middle of the outfield.

Bradley Zimmer started the year out there, but struck out 44 times in a 114 plate appearance, before getting hurt and ending his season with a .226 batting average and a 611 OPS.

He was platooning with Rajai Davis, who is still active, and has an even worse OPS at 567, with just 8 extra base hits in 210 plate appearances.

By contrast, Roberto Perez, having a miserable year at the plate by anyone’s standards, has 10 extra base hits.

Greg Allen took over and by comparison has looked better, but he’s has a 613 OPS and a .241 batting average and 13 extra base hits.

Management traded for Leonys Martin from Detroit before the July 31st trade deadline, but he fell ill after playing six games, and that sent president Chris Antonetti and GM Mike Chernoff scrambling.

The fear here is that the Indians will be one of those teams who are so deficient in certain areas that it offsets the greatness of Lindor and Ramirez, and the starting pitching, which claims three of the AL’s top ten in ERA, and four of the league’s top ten in strikeouts.

The Tribe’s likely first round opponent, the Astros, lead the league in ERA and in strikeouts. Meaning runs will probably be tough to come by, so even if the top of the order is hitting, someone will still need to step up to win the series.

Maybe it will be Encarnacion or Donaldson. Perhaps Kipnis will hit in the playoffs like he did in 2016, when he belted 4 homers and knocked in eight.

Unless the pitching staff is throwing shutouts, they will need more than Lindor, Brantley, and Ramirez. And remember, those three didn’t really hit well a year ago.

There can’t be anymore moves made, so the players on the roster are going to have to step up. The question is will they?

Going Forward–Tribe Needs To Use Entire Roster

The Cleveland Indians will clinch the American League Central Division title sometime this week, but right now they look like a team running on fumes.

Several of the everyday players look to need a few days off, most notably MVP candidate Jose Ramirez, who over the last month is hitting just .172 with one home run and a 572 OPS.

Over the same time frame, Yonder Alonso is batting .187, also with a pair of dingers and a 542 OPS.

Even Francisco Lindor’s numbers have dropped off. He has a .255 batting average and five homers, but his OPS is just 703.

Are these just slumps, or have the dog days of August set in, with the fatigue that goes with playing everyday in a summer where the temperatures have been high?

In the case of Lindor and Ramirez, both young players at 24 and 25 (for now, Ramirez turns 26 in less than a week), it could be that they are tired, both having played everyday (Lindor 141 games, Ramirez 140 out of a possible 142).

To be sure, neither player wants to sit out. Their attitude is to go out everyday and compete, and that is a very noble thing to want to do.

However, we noticed yesterday that Erik Gonzalez has been on the 25 man roster the entire season, and has just 129 plate appearances, striking us incredibly low for someone here all season.

While Gonzalez has put up a .285 batting average and a 716 OPS to date, we feel his lack of strike zone judgment (32 strikeouts to 5 walks) would be exposed if was in the lineup more often.

Should he or a perhaps more productive utility player get more at bats during the regular season to give Lindor and Ramirez some rest to keep them fresh for the stretch drive?

We understand the Tribe was caught in a tough place with Gonzalez, as he was out of options coming into the season. Typically, young players have a problem with a bench role, although considering his limited playing time, he has done well.

The point is it is obvious that Terry Francona isn’t comfortable putting his name in the lineup. And it’s easier for sure to write Lindor and Ramirez on the card.

This year is a luxury, the Tribe is cruising to a post-season berth. But what if the Twins were hot and were cutting into the lead on a weekly basis? Having a third of your everyday players, particularly on a top heavy offense, slumping isn’t good.

On the other hand, perhaps Ramirez’ struggles are a result of being too pull happy and a little too conscious of his home run total. Opposing teams are using extreme shifts against him, and when he came to the majors he was a player who used all fields.

Alonso’s troubles could be strictly from losing his strike zone judgment. His walk rate is at 8.7% this season, compared to 13.1% a year ago. And he is striking out at the highest rate of his career.

It appears the first baseman has played himself into a platoon role for the post-season, with either Yandy Diaz or Edwin Encarnacion with someone else being the designated hitter.

There are 25 men on a roster, and why not use all of them. Especially to keep players fresh over the long six month season.

Hopefully the rest they will get after the Indians clinch will be enough for October.

Things To Watch After Tribe Wraps It Up

Sometime in the next week, the Cleveland Indians will clinch the American League Central Division title, their 10th since the three division set up was established in 1994.

They will also be making their 11th post season appearance in that time frame, trailing only the powerful, big market Red Sox and Yankees in the American League.

These are heady times for baseball fans in northeast Ohio, especially when you consider this team has several of the best players who have ever worn the Indians’ uniform.

Even after the Tribe wraps up the division crown, they will be very interesting to watch through the end of the season. Here are some things to watch–

Josh Donaldson. The former AL MVP will return to the active roster next week in Tampa, and then the seismic position shift will begin, assuming Donaldson’s calf holds up.

When he is ready to play the field, Jose Ramirez will move to second base, and Jason Kipnis goes to centerfield. That is, if Kipnis continues to swing the bat like he has over the last week to ten days.

If he slumps again, Terry Francona could go back to Greg Allen, who is a better defender, and has provided some timely hits since Leonys Martin fell ill.

The Bullpen. With Cody Allen back on the beam (hopefully), who will be in the bullpen for the post-season is still up in the air.

The first order of business is getting Andrew Miller healthy and back in the mix. We doubt he can carry the same load he did in 2016, but if he can give Francona an inning of quality relief two or three times in a series, that would be big.

Also to be determined is what other right-handers will the skipper want. Adam Cimber should be one, because of his success vs. right-handed hitters, but will the manager really want to bring Dan Otero or Neil Ramirez into a playoff game?

Our guess is that was why veteran Jon Edwards was given a look see after striking out 56 in 39-2/3 innings at Columbus this year.

And that makes it kind of curious that Ben Taylor wasn’t brought back for another look. The 25 year old made six appearances early in the year, and fanned 70 in 57-1/3 innings at AAA this year.

The Bench. There won’t be a need for 13 pitchers come October, so we figure two spots on the bench will open up.

In our estimation, Francona will go with four starters and seven arms out of the bullpen, so who gets those roster spots?

If Kipnis is in CF, one spot will go to Greg Allen for his defense, and Rajai Davis will be there as a pinch runner, but will that mean Yandy Diaz makes the roster this fall?

Remember, a year ago, Diaz was bypassed in favor of Giovanny Urshela’s glove.

This year, Diaz may be in the lineup vs. left handed pitchers, replacing Yonder Alonso, who is batting .212 with a 607 OPS against southpaws.

For a team coasting into the playoffs, the 2018 Cleveland Indians have a lot of things that are unsettled. We are sure the Tribe management would like things to crystalize in the next three weeks.

The Tribe’s Giant Leap of Faith

Well, we certainly can’t say Chris Antonetti and Mike Chernoff played it safe, can we?

The Cleveland Indians’ front office took a giant leap of faith that Josh Donaldson’s injured calf will be healthy enough to get through two months in acquiring the former American League MVP just prior to the September 1st deadline.

Donaldson hasn’t played in the big leagues since May 28th, yet the Tribe management is willing to blow up the existing lineup for a player hitting .234 with a 757 OPS this season.

Ironically, Donaldson’s last two home runs for the Blue Jays came on May 3rd, at Progressive Field in a doubleheader against the Indians, hitting them off of Nick Goody in game one, and Adam Plutko in the nightcap.

In his three previous seasons, his lowest OPS was 939 in 2015, his first year in Canada, when he won the MVP, leading the AL in runs scored, runs batted in, and belted 41 home runs.

His career post-season numbers, in 31 games, are a .292 batting average, 4 home runs, 13 RBI, and an 836 OPS. Even in the ALCS loss to the Indians in 2016, Donaldson still was 6 for 18 with a dinger.

When he is ready to play, and that’s not a given, it appears the Tribe will move Jose Ramirez to second base, and Jason Kipnis will move to the outfield for the second straight fall.

That’s a drastic departure because Terry Francona said a few weeks ago that he wasn’t going to move Ramirez to the keystone to get Yandy Diaz’ bat in the lineup.

With Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez in a bit of a tailspin, it was clear the Indians’ offense needed a boost. Greg Allen was hot for awhile, but our fears that he still isn’t reliable were shown to be true.

That doesn’t mean Allen doesn’t have a future, because we believe he does.

The Tribe outfield defense isn’t great anyway, so it appears management will punt on it totally to get Kipnis’ recently rejuvenated bat in the lineup, with Ramirez moving to second.

When will the transition start to take place? It is thought that Donaldson needs some more minor league at bats, so will Francona wait until Donaldson is ready to play in the majors, or will he get valuable action at their new positions for Ramirez and Kipnis.

When Kipnis is in center, our guess is he will play five or six innings, and if the Tribe has a lead, Greg Allen will take over.

It has been reported that Kipnis is not real happy about having to move to the outfield, and this is where Francona needs his greatest strength, his relationship with his players.

If Donaldson is healthy, there is no doubt his presence in the lineup makes the Tribe batting order more potent. The offense has been top heavy all season long, with the team not getting a lot of production past the fifth spot in the order.

Donaldson’s presence lengthens the order, potentially dropping Yonder Alonso into the 6th spot, and if Kipnis keeps hitting, the lineup has some depth.

The biggest selling point Tito has is it makes the team better, and if winning is the ultimate goal in that clubhouse, this move helps.

Still, it’s a huge gamble because of Donaldson’s calf. We have seen what Lonnie Chisenhall’s problem has done to his career over the last year, so there is no guarantee it won’t flare up on the newest Indian.

Antonetti and Chernoff have pushed all the chips to the center of the table again. Now, the question is will their new hand be a winner?

Looking At MVP Candidacy Of Ramirez, Lindor.

The Indians and Red Sox are playing a four game series in Fenway Park this week, which is a matchup of two teams who will be playing in October.

However, a secondary battle will be going on, with four big time candidates for the American League MVP on the field, Boston’s Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez, and the Indians’ Jose Ramirez and Francisco Lindor.

The quartet are all in the league leaders in WAR, as well as ranking high in all of the traditional statistics too. Betts currently leads in WAR at 8.3, with Ramirez 3rd, Lindor 4th, and Martinez 8th.

In terms of offensive WAR, Ramirez is 2nd, Betts 3rd, Martinez 4th, and Lindor 6th. Betts is regarded as the best defensive rightfielder in the sport, but Lindor actually has a higher defensive WAR because he plays a more important defensive position.

In runs created, the four rank in the top five in the AL.

We aren’t going to comment on the two Boston players candidacy, but needless to say, both are great players and would be worthy winners of the MVP. But we think the two Indians have a better case, and here’s why.

The Tribe is third in the American League in runs scored despite no one besides Ramirez and Lindor having an OPS over 850 among players with over 100 at bats. Michael Brantley, having a solid season, is third in this statistic at 823 currently.

By contrast, two other Red Sox are over that figure–Xander Bogaerts at 875 and Andrew Benintendi at 877. Boston leads the AL in runs scored, and you can see why with four outstanding hitters in their lineup every day.

We have been saying this all season long, but the Cleveland attack is very often dependent on the two players manning the left side of their infield.

Really, who else is contributing on an every day basis offensively?

Edwin Encarnacion has dropped off from a year ago, his batting average down almost 30 points, his on base percentage down 60 points. Over the last month, we have seen opposing teams pitching around Ramirez in key situations to get to the veteran slugger.

Yonder Alonso has done well in maintaining the power spike he had a year ago, already setting a career high in RBIs with 70, but he hasn’t had as good a season as Carlos Santana had with Cleveland a year ago.

Yan Gomes has slumped after the All Star break, so Terry Francona isn’t really getting good hitting out of centerfield, catcher, rightfield, and second base. That’s almost half of the batting order.

Yet, the Tribe is scoring more runs than anyone in the Junior Circuit save for Boston and New York. That’s how valuable the duo of Ramirez and Lindor have been.

And it hasn’t been just this season either. Ramirez, of course, finished third in the voting a year ago, and Lindor has finished in the top ten the past two seasons, 9th in 2016 and 5th last season.

We also have to remind everyone again, that Ramirez won’t turn 26 years old until next month, and Lindor won’t be 25 until November. They are still getting better folks.

Right now, Betts has the WAR lead, and that goes a big way in determining the MVP, and we understand that. But if the word “valuable” is considered, keep in mind that the Indians’ offense is being carried by the duo of Jose Ramirez and Francisco Lindor.

That’s our case for both of them.

In Pro Sports, Consistency Is The Key

In the social media era, opinions on players and teams can change on a daily basis, particularly in baseball and basketball, where games are held often, in baseball, pretty much every day for six months.

So, when a much maligned player has a good game, his supporters are very proud to point that out. Really, the opposite doesn’t happen much, because guys like LeBron James, Francisco Lindor, or Jose Ramirez are universally regarded as among the best players in their sport.

In professional sports though, consistency is the best talent you can bring to the table.

Think about it, if you are talking about a professional athlete, they have enough ability to get to the highest level of the sports in which they play. This means they are very capable of getting four hits in a baseball game, scoring 20 points in an NBA game, or catching eight passes in an NFL contest.

The problem is what happens the next night.

Back when Danny Ferry played for the Cavaliers, let’s just say we weren’t a fan. We discovered early he was a “tweener”, too small to play power forward, and not quick enough to play small forward. In spite of this, he became something of a crowd favorite.

A Ferry fan asked us why we were critical of the player the Cavs gave up Ron Harper AND two first round draft picks for (the worst trade in NBA history in our opinion). Our explanation was simply this–we would give the fan $5 every time Ferry played a good game, and he would do the same if he played a poor game.

Naturally, the fan turned down our request. Point made.

The sports landscape is filled with outstanding performances by average or below average players. This past NBA season, Trey Burke scored 42 for the Knicks, and Alan Crabbe had 41 for the Nets.

Burke averaged 12.8 points per game, and Crabbe 13.2 this season.

Look at the Browns. How many wide receivers have flashed by having a good game here or there? Then, defenses pay more attention, and they can’t get open any more.

Remember a Tigers’ hitter named Chris Shelton? He ended April 2006 with a .326 batting average, 10 home runs and 20 runs batted in. He did have a decent 2005 season too.

The rest of that season, he hit six homers and knocked in 27. The following year, he was back in the minors, and played just 50 more games in the big leagues afterwards.

That’s why you need to see sustained success before you should be excited. Take a guy like Jason Kipnis.

First of all, we don’t root against him. We would love it if he got hot and started to hit like he did in 2016. He got off to a horrible start in 2018. However, over the last 14 days, he’s hitting .243.

The last 28 days? If you said .243, you’d be correct.

He’s had one full month (June) where he hit above .237, although he is hitting well to start August. But, you have to maintain consistency.

These guys are professional athletes, and you don’t become that without talent. There is an old adage that it is tougher to stay in the big leagues than it is to get there.

When you are consistent, the coach or manager can rely on you. That’s why sometimes Terry Francona gives veterans who have performed for him the benefit of the doubt. They’ve earned it. (There is still a fine line between patience and stubbornness).

It’s what every professional athlete strives for. In the case of Lindor and Ramirez, it is consistent excellence. For others, it’s being a guy who can be trusted.

Tribe Needs Encarnacion, Alonso To Be Productive In October

We have been talking about the Cleveland Indians’ offense for over a month now and how strange it is that the Tribe ranks 3rd in the AL in runs scored per game with really only three players having above average seasons.

We will point out again that Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez are having arguably two of the five best hitting seasons in baseball, because if they weren’t, the Cleveland offense would be in big trouble.

Can they win in the post-season with only three players carrying the load at the plate?

Terry Francona’s squad ranks 4th in the American League in on base percentage, despite having only those three hitters above the league average in that category (.317).

Yes, Erik Gonzalez and Lonnie Chisenhall are higher, but they have limited plate appearances. Edwin Encarnacion sits right at the league average, while Yonder Alonso is just below at .314.

Alonso has an OBP of .365 in 2017, and his career mark is .336, so he is well below both of those marks. Encarnacion was at .377 last season, his highest mark since 2012, mostly because he reached a career high with 102 walks.

This season, his walk rate is down, and so is his batting average, down to .229 currently after hitting .258 a walk ago.

Here are the other on base percentages for the players who get the most playing time for the Tribe:

Yan Gomes .300
Jason Kipnis .307
Brandon Guyer .284
Rajai Davis .296
Greg Allen .264
Roberto Perez .247

The Cleveland attack is inconsistent because of it.

Among the teams with the highest run scoring totals in the AL, it was surprising to see the Indians ranking only behind Boston and New York in terms of number of games scoring three runs or less. The Tribe has done this 43 times, compared to 30 for the Yankees and 34 for the Red Sox.

By contrast, Houston has scored less than four runs 47 times, Texas 50 times, and Oakland 51 times.

The Indians do rank behind only Boston in number of games with 10 or more runs, having done that 14 times (Red Sox 17).

The concern for us is how this will work in the playoffs. The other teams are going to go out of their way to not allow Lindor or Ramirez to beat them, so it is important that someone, anyone, steps up.

It won’t be unusual to see managers pass Lindor to get to Brantley, and/or skip Ramirez to get to Encarnacion. Really, who else is going to hurt them the way the lineup is currently constructed.

The point is someone else has to step up or the front office is going to have to get another bat.

Leonys Martin looked like he could help vs. right-handed pitching, but he looks like he may be out of the lineup for awhile with a non-baseball related issue.

Will Chisenhall be able to get back in the lineup, and even if he does, can he stay healthy for the post-season?

We would say at this point, neither Martin nor Chisenhall will be useful come playoff time.

So, can the offense be more consistent and efficient unless changes are made? We’d say the most likely scenarios would be Encarnacion or Alonso getting better because they were better a year ago.

Gomes is who he is, and Kipnis hasn’t been good at the plate since the World Series in 2016. That’s a long slump.

Until then, we are officially worried about the hitting come playoff time. That’s the problem relying on two players, no matter how good they are.

The OPS Debate

Right before the Major League Baseball trade deadline, the was a lot of talk about the relative value of players, and of course, statistics were brought up.

At this point, we would like to point out that we regularly purchased and read Bill James’ Baseball Abstract and found it fascinating, a different way of looking at the game and the players on the field.

So, we understand many of the sport’s new statistics, like OPS, and we usually list a player’s OPS when discussing his offensive prowess. We also look at WAR (Wins Above Replacement) in terms of a player’s profile, but our opinion is it is biased toward middle of the diamond players, Jose Ramirez’ current season notwithstanding.

By the way, that’s our opinion, so save the anger. But when Matt Chapman, third baseman from Oakland (we know not a middle infielder) measures to have the fifth highest WAR this season, it raises an eyebrow.

This isn’t to say Chapman isn’t a good player. He has an 830 OPS and is a great defensive player. He isn’t the 5th best player in the sport this season, and for that matter, Milwaukee’s Lorenzo Cain isn’t 6th either.

Let’s get back to OPS though. James’ original premise was a batter who had an on base percentage of over .350 and a slugging percentage over .450, therefore displaying an ability to get on base and drive the ball, is a very good offensive player.

Today, there seems to be a group of people who value players who have high OPS due to dominance in the slugging area, leading to players who have low batting averages/on base percentages getting a lot of playing time.

The players who has the highest OPS with out being over the .350/.450 threshold in each category are as follows:

Javier Baez 914 OPS (.333 OBP/581 slugging)
Khris Davis 863 OPS (.326/.536)
Gregory Polanco 862 OPS (.344/.517)
Xander Bogaerts 855 OPS (.342/.513)
Joey Votto 852 OPS (.425/.427)

Out of those players, which one would you like to have?

For us, it would be Votto, who by the way, also has the most distinguished career out of the group, although to be fair, he’s also the guy who has been around the longest.

One thing we would like to point out about the on base percentage and slugging percentage.

A player with a 1.000 on base percentage never makes an out, while a player with a 1.000 slugging percentage can arrive at that figure by going 1 for 4 with a home run.

And we would also add is making outs is the only way “time” is measured in a baseball game. A team only gets 27 of them, and players who make them frequently shouldn’t be as valuable.

Look at the strikeout to walk ratios of the first four players–

Baez 101 K/17 walks
Davis    116 K/38 walks
Polanco    91 K/48 walks
Bogaerts    72 K/31 walks

In watching these guys hit, our feeling in watching them against the Indians is that in a tight situation, you can strike Baez and Davis out. They swing at a lot of pitches out of the strike zone, and if we can see that, we are sure major league pitchers know it too.

We noticed in this summer’s amateur draft, the Indians went for players with good contact rates, that is to say, they didn’t strike out much.

This could be due to the success of Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez, players who are good hitter, and can develop power later.

A look at the bottom ten teams in MLB in on base percentage shows nine teams not in the post season picture (Arizona is the lone contender). As for slugging percentage, there are three teams above .500 (Giants, Phillies, and Rays) in the bottom ten.

What does it all mean? We believe many people look at the statistics first in making judgments about players, and they value the total OPS. We believe you have to see how the stat is compiled to determine the value of the player.

Just something we wanted to get off our chest.