Tribe’s Window Still Tied To Lindor.

There are rumblings that Major League Baseball could get underway in late June/early July with a new three ten team division set up and a truncated season.

That would be music to the ears of all baseball fans and provide at least some sense of normality this summer.

Matt Loede asked if any Cleveland sports team was close to winning a championship, and our reply was the Indians were closest, but the Browns had a bigger window.

The Tribe’s immediate opening is tied to their shortstop Francisco Lindor, in our opinion.

With Lindor here this season, and perhaps next, the Indians have a chance to win. Along with Jose Ramirez, Cleveland has a pair of the top position players in the game, along with a solid young starting pitching staff.

Shane Bieber and Mike Clevinger should form a top of the rotation that is the envy of most teams in the majors, and if Carlos Carrasco is healthy, we already know he is capable of being one of the top ten starting pitchers in the game.

That’s a pretty good base to start with.

Among the position players, Franmil Reyes seems poised to have a monster season at the plate providing big time power in the middle of the lineup, and Carlos Santana is coming off his best season, but has turned 34 years old.

Cleveland values defense behind the plate, and they have that in Roberto Perez and Sandy Leon.

However, without Lindor, and Santana aging, you can see holes popping up in the everyday lineup.

Yes, you would still have Ramirez and Reyes, but then what?

The farm system is loaded, but that strength is located in the lower rungs of the system. Top prospect Nolan Jones would have seen some time at Columbus this season, and #2 prospect Tyler Freeman would have been at Akron, but the rest of the top ten position players, save for DH Bobby Bradley, haven’t played above the low Class A level, meaning they are a few years away.

As for the pitching, Carrasco would be 34 when 2022 (the year Lindor is a free agent) hits. While fans like the potential of young starters Zach Plesac and Aaron Civale, the reality is both have pitched less than one year in the big leagues.

They also have Logan Allen and Scott Moss (acquired in the Trevor Bauer deal last July), who will likely have started in AAA in 2020.

We also know that pitching is very volatile, and outside of Bieber, Clevinger, and Carrasco, none of the youngsters have any kind of track record.

As for the bullpen, we’ve seen how shaky that can be with Emmanuel Clase being suspended for 80 games whenever baseball resumes play.

With Lindor, the Indians have a solid base and can fill in at other spots in the lineup with players like Oscar Mercado, Jordan Luplow, Jake Bauers, and Tyler Naquin.

However, let’s look at where the Tribe will be in ’22. Lindor could be gone (yes, we are taking a foolishly optimistic view), and Santana can’t be counted on at age 36.

Can you have a contending team with two proven bats, Ramirez and Reyes? Perhaps one of the aforementioned players can step up to join them, or maybe Jones and Tyler Freeman becomes the next great rookie talents.

Same with the pitching staff, can Plesac and Civale follow the success of Bieber and Clevinger?

If baseball is played this season, perhaps by the end of that season, we will have a better idea as to how long the Indians’ window of contention can remain open.

Until then, the window is tied to Lindor. We would love to see all of the prospects emerge as stars, but the reality says that is unlikely to happen.

The Turnover Of The Indians’ Roster.

When the Cleveland Indians ended the 2018 season being swept in the American League Division Series by Houston (no comments!), the front office knew there was a problem.

Outside of the resident superstars, Francisco Lindor (then 24) and Jose Ramirez (25), they were an older team with not a lot of upside. Check the ages of the players getting regular playing time that season–

1B Yonder Alonso (31)
2B Jason Kipnis (31)
LF Michael Brantley (31)
RF Melky Cabrera (33)
DH Edwin Encarnacion (35)
C Yan Gomes (30)

And in September, the front office brought in Josh Donaldson (32) to play third, moving Ramirez to second, and put Kipnis in the outfield.

The Indians also had Rajai Davis (37) and Brandon Guyer (32) on the bench.

The pitching staff wasn’t much better. The rotation has Corey Kluber (32) and Carlos Carrasco (31), and the bullpen included Dan Otero (33), Andrew Miller (33), Josh Tomlin (33), and Oliver Perez (36).

President Chris Antonetti and GM Mike Chernoff knew that group went as far as it could, understanding the peak years for a player are ages 27-29.

He undertook the process of getting younger following that season. The most painful departures were Brantley, who left via free agency, and trading Gomes, both of whom had been in Cleveland for many years.

By the time spring training started a couple of months ago in Goodyear, the only players in the over 30 crowd still remaining are Carrasco and Oliver Perez.

This isn’t to say the Tribe doesn’t have anyone over 30, of course they do, because a couple of guys under that threshold in ’18 have now crossed over: Roberto Perez is now 31, and they acquired Carlos Santana (35) in the deal that sent Encarnacion to Seattle.

Cleveland also signed Cesar Hernandez (31) to play second base, but he is on a one year deal, and Santana has a club option for next season, when he will be 36.

Backup catcher Sandy Leon is also 31.

Among the pitchers, only Carrasco, and relievers Nick Wittgren (30), Adam Cimber (30), James Hoyt (34) and of course, Oliver Perez (38) are over 30, and outside of Cookie, none of those hurlers are the core to the pitching staff.

In two years, the Tribe is much younger, and still very much a contending team. Besides Ramirez (27) and Lindor (26), the everyday core group of players consists of these guys–

OF/DH Franmil Reyes (25)
CF Oscar Mercado (25)
OF Jordan Luplow (26)

And two more spots, currently filled by Santana and Hernandez could be filled by others next season. Don’t forget Nolan Jones (22) and Tyler Freeman (21) could be knocking on the door for big league jobs in spring training a year from now.

Could those be the spots they will be taking?

The pitching staff is similarly built with young arms like Shane Bieber (25), Aaron Civale (25), Zach Plesac (25), and Mike Clevinger (29).

And the bullpen could be anchored by young arms like James Karinchak (25), and Emmanuel Clase (22).

Don’t forget, some other arms are coming like Scott Moss (25), Cam Hill (26), and Kyle Nelson (24).

The Tribe farm system is ranking higher these days, mostly because of an influx of players who will (hopefully) play at the Class A level.

The front office’s plan has worked in terms of the getting younger part. Whether the talent level of the young players stays the same is still up for debate.

And while we wish they had been more proactive in using the money saved from the changeover, the moves needed to be done.

Let’s hope we will get an opportunity to see that this summer.

Early Good, Bad, And Ugly For Tribe.

We realize that it is very early in the exhibition game schedule, they’ve been playing games for a week now, but it is never too early to examine some of the results to this point.

For proven veterans, spring training statistics shouldn’t really be examined. For example, if Francisco Lindor was hitting .182 in the middle of March, no one should be alarmed. He’s a known commodity, but for young players and guys who fighting for the last two or three spots on the 26 man roster, it’s worth taking a look at.

Remember that a good three hit day, or a hot week can change everything, and so can an 0 for 15 stretch with 10 strikeouts.

That said, here are the good, the bad, and the ugly after a week of games in the desert.

The Good. Any concerns about Franmil Reyes’ loss of weight should be going away. The big man has started 6 for 13, with two homers and just one strikeout. Lindor and Jose Ramirez are a combined 11 for 23 with four doubles and a home run.

Bobby Bradley, a longshot to make it, has done what he needs to do. The left-handed slugger is 5 for 11 and has struck out just once.

Oscar Mercado is 3 for 10 and has two walks, an area where he needs to improve if he wants to hit at the top of the order, and another longshot, Ka’ai Tom is 5 for 12, but has struck out three times.

James Karinchak has been filthy so far, fanning four in his first two innings, although he struggled with his control a bit yesterday.

The Bad. When you are battling for the 25th or 26th spot on the roster, you can’t afford to have a bad start, so Greg Allen starting off 1 for 10 isn’t helping his cause. As they say, you only have one chance to make a first impression.

Yu Chang is 5 for 15, but contact issues have been a problem, striking out six times already.

Dominic Leone, who has some big league experience with Seattle, Arizona, and St. Louis, has a chance to come north particularly after the injury to Emmanuel Clase. Unfortunately, he’s given up 11 hits, including a home run in three innings, struggling in all of his outings.

It may be tough to overcome that.

The Ugly. Losing Clase for perhaps 8-12 weeks with an upper back strain has been the toughest news from camp. He was the biggest acquisition in the Corey Kluber deal, and people will excited to see he and Karinchak in the bullpen. Now, it could be May or June before he is back.

And opens up another bullpen spot.

Losing Mike Clevinger doesn’t help either. Clevinger was in the mix as the Opening Day starter, but will probably miss the first three or four weeks of the season with a torn meniscus.

With this injury and minor setbacks for Carlos Carrasco and Aaron Civale, who knows who will start the first five games of the season for the Indians.

Again, it’s very early. But the injuries are a concern, and the players off to bad starts need to start turning it around if they want to be in uniform against the Tigers on March 26th.

Is The Tribe Still A Contender? You Bet!

Anyone who thinks the Minnesota Twins are going to sit on their laurels after winning the American Central Division in 2019 will probably be sadly mistaken.

The Twins seem determined to defend their title after signing one of the best free agents available in former MVP Josh Donaldson, ranked 5th best on MLBTradeRumors.com.

Minnesota scored the second most runs in the American League a year ago, and they just added another superior hitter to their lineup.

The Chicago White Sox have been very active in the free agent market this off-season, most notably signing Yasmani Grandal, Edwin Encarnacion, and southpaw Dallas Keuchel, leading many to believe it will be a three team race in the AL Central.

Meanwhile, the Cleveland Indians have signed 2B Cesar Hernandez.

If you look at offense, the Twins scored 170 more runs than the Indians, and the Tribe scored 61 more than the Pale Hose. Even adding Grandal and Encarnacion, that’s a tough number to catch.

While it seems unreachable for the Indians to catch up to Minnesota in runs scored, one path to closing the gap would be a complete season by Jose Ramirez, and a better season from Francisco Lindor.

Ramirez wound up with a solid season in ’19 (.255, 23 HR, 83 RBI, 806 OPS), but compared to his 2017 and 2018 campaigns (957 OPS in ’17 and 939 in ’18) it pales. A return to those previous two years (he is only 27) would greatly improve the Cleveland attack.

On the other hand, the Indians can’t expect the same season out of 34-year-old Carlos Santana, who had the best season of the year (911 OPS). By the same token, Minnesota’s best hitter, Nelson Cruz, will be 39 in 2020.

Chicago’s free agent hitters are 32 (Grandal) and 37 years old (Encarnacion), so neither should be expected to do better than a year ago. Where the Sox should gain is with three young, impact bats in Yoan Moncada (25), Eloy Jimenez (23), and Luis Robert (22).

The Indians’ edge is in the pitching department, allowing almost .6 runs per game less than the Twins, and 1.11 less than Chicago.

Certainly, the continued development of Aaron Civale and Zach Plesac will be key to maintaining that edge, as well as a retooled bullpen.

It would seem the Indians still have the best pitching in the division. Minnesota replaced Kyle Gibson and Martin Perez with Homer Bailey and Rich Hill, and the White Sox figure to be better, but lowering by more than a full run?

Based on run differential, the difference between the Indians and Twins was only four games, Minnesota had the profile of a team winning 97 games (they won 101), while Cleveland should have won 93 contests, which they did.

So, the gap isn’t as large as you think it is.

The White Sox won 69 games, so even with a roster upgrade and the further development of some very good looking young players, that’s still an awful big number to make up.

We would think the White Sox will still be a factor in the race, but not quite ready to compete with the Twins and Indians.

That’s why the Indians should still be looking to add a bat, particularly an outfielder. They shouldn’t be thinking the way to go is unproven hitters like Greg Allen, Delino DeShields, Bradley Zimmer, and Daniel Johnson.

The Cleveland pitching gives it a solid chance to return to the post-season in 2020.

Time For Tribe To Upgrade Roster & Payroll.

Sometimes it seems like the Cleveland Indians can’t get out of their own way.

They have been one of the American League’s best teams in the past 10 years, winning three AL Central titles and making four playoff appearances since Terry Francona became manager in 2013.

Since the wild card era began in 1994, coincidentally aligned with the opening of Jacobs (now Progressive) Field, the only two AL teams with more post-season berths are the league’s behemoths, the Yankees and Red Sox.

Despite all this success in the last quarter century, there isn’t a buzz around the franchise. The current Tribe has two of the game’s most exciting and best players in Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez, and fans seem ambivalent.

Not a mention a Hall of Fame manager.

The front office needs to seize the day with this current roster. Besides the duo we just mentioned, the Indians have one of the best starting rotations in baseball, even after dealing two time Cy Young Award winner Corey Kluber.

However, the Indians’ ownership continues to cut the amount of money allocated for payroll. This despite winning 93 games last season.

No, they didn’t make the playoffs, but in many seasons, that victory total gets you a chance to play in October.

We have said many times, Cleveland cannot live in the same payroll neighborhood as Boston and New York. And we aren’t asking them to do so.

In 2018, the Indians’ payroll was $134 million, the highest ever. And yes, we know minority owner John Sherman was involved at that point.

Right now, according to Baseball Reference Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the current 26 man roster payroll in a little under $92 million, that’s a drop of $42 million from two years ago.

And that includes yesterday’s arbitration settlements, meaning Lindor’s $17 million salary for 2020 is included in that number.

Playing devil’s advocate, let’s say the $134 million isn’t sustainable for the Dolan family. Last year, the Tribe’s payroll was slightly under $120 million, according to the same site.

No doubt the Indians will make some minor signings before spring training arrives, so the actual number for 2020 will be around $100 million unless a trade or big ticket free agent signing is yet to come.

This will mean another $20 million will be lopped off the payroll from last season, $34 million has been eliminated over the past two seasons.

That certainly doesn’t indicate to the ticket buying public a commitment to winning a championship, and it absolutely doesn’t get fans in a mode to come out to Progressive Field this season.

As an aside, the schedule maker didn’t help Cleveland either with 16 home games in April, where it will be rare a game time temperature will reach 60 degrees.

It is without a doubt a “chicken or the egg” scenario.

Ownership would like better attendance, and fans want a reason to buy tickets.

Last season, Philadelphia season ticket sales increased by 7% when they signed Bryce Harper. Now, we know the Indians can’t do this (especially with Lindor on the cusp of free agency), but why not do something that creates some excitement around this group of players.

Here’s hoping Chris Antonetti and Mike Chernoff still have one more move up their sleeves before spring training to add a piece (not trade Lindor). They should have some money available.

Perhaps they were waiting for the potential arbitration cases to be settled.

Cleveland sports fans deserve some excitement, especially something not associated with a Browns’ coaching search.

There’s a window of opportunity for the Indians, time to go for it.

The Reason To Keep Frankie

The Cleveland Indians were in the news this week, but not for anything the front office would be happy about.

Mostly, the news involved what to do with their star shortstop, Francisco Lindor.

Lindor isn’t eligible for free agency until after the 2021 season, meaning he can play with the Tribe for two more full seasons with Indians just having to pay what he gets in arbitration, likely around $16-17 million this year and depending what kind of season he has, over $20 million in ’21.

At that point, Lindor could walk away from the franchise, with the Indians just getting draft pick compensation.

Many feel the Indians should move now because a deal involving the star shortstop would allow a possible trading partner two full seasons on Lindor, thus they would be willing to give up more to the Tribe.

However, we believe the best course of action for the Indians is to keep Lindor for two more years and see how everything plays out.

Here are our reasons:

Winning. Cleveland’s win totals over the last four seasons are 93, 91, 102, and 94. They are most definitely a threat to reach the post-season in 2020 and 2021. Why give away that chance, which leads us to…

2. Return From A Trade. Most likely, a deal for Lindor will bring back an established major leaguer who won’t be as good as Lindor along with some top prospects, who probably won’t be very good players (if they ever become very good) for a few years. Trading your best player weakens the team in the short run.

3. Youth Is Still On Tribe’s Side. The Indians are a reletively young team. In their current projected starting lineup, only catcher Roberto Perez and 1B/DH Carlos Santana are over 30 years old, and Lindor (26) and Jose Ramirez (27) are entering the prime of their careers, meaning their best years should be coming very soon.

4. Pitching. The Tribe still has plenty of it. Even with the trade of Corey Kluber, the rotation is still headed by Mike Clevinger (29), Shane Bieber (25), Carlos Carrasco (33), and a pair of 25-year-olds in Aaron Civale and Zach Plesac to round it out. The bullpen could be very tough in late innings with Brad Hand, and newcomer Emmanuel Clase and rookie James Karinchak. No reason to waste it.

With the Kluber deal, the Indians can still pay Lindor what he gets in arbitration this season, and improve the offense with the money saved in the Kluber trade, and still be at a comfort level in terms of payroll.

Plus, a lot of things can change in two years.

First, the basic agreement expires after 2021, and who knows, maybe the owners get a “franchise tag” in the next round of collective bargaining. Also, with the news that came out about John Sherman when we bought the Royals, it appears the Dolan family is at least thinking about selling the franchise.

And don’t forget the Indians local television deal ends after 2022, so another influx of cash could present itself to ownership.

Our point is simply this, don’t force yourself into a false deadline. Sometimes the best course of action is to let things play out.

All sorts of things can happen in two years. Heck, the Indians might even win a World Series. And that has a better chance of happening with Francisco Lindor wearing a Cleveland uniform.

Tribe Needs They Should Be Looking To Fill.

With baseball’s Winter Meetings now concluded, and Francisco Lindor still on the Cleveland Indians’ roster, we can now focus on the holes the Tribe still has on its roster right now.

The Indians’ offense was slightly below league average at 4.75 runs per game (the AL norm was 4.88), so that’s a good place to start. Especially when you consider the pitching staff was third in ERA and one of only four American League teams under 4.00 (Tampa, Houston, and Oakland).

The offense needs to get better. Right now, Terry Francona has three solid hitters in his lineup: Lindor, Jose Ramirez, and Carlos Santana. Franmil Reyes should be able to provide power (and lots of it), but he also strikes out a ton and needs to get on base a little more.

Oscar Mercado showed signs of being a good player (761 OPS), but he’s another young player who needs (and should develop) more patience at the plate.

And Jordan Luplow was a terror vs. southpaws in 2019 (1181 OPS), but his minor league numbers don’t indicate he should be strictly a platoon player in the big leagues. We would like to see him get an opportunity to play everyday.

However, the latter two players are somewhat gambles, and a team that figures to be in contention in 2020 has to minimize the “ifs” on the roster.

What has to be addressed before spring training?:

2B/3B: Jason Kipnis is a free agent, and let’s face it, hasn’t been the same since 2016, and Ramirez has told the front office he will play either spot, he just wants to stay put. So, president Chris Antonetti and GM Mike Chernoff have to fill this spot, and the internal options aren’t very promising.

They could give the spot to Yu Chang, who had a 560 OPS in a limited role late in the season, but his minor league numbers aren’t exciting either, .251 career batting average, 762 OPS.

They also have Christian Arroyo, a former top 100 prospect who was acquired from Tampa at the deadline last season, but he has been injured much of the last three seasons, and has a 622 OPS in 70 big league games.

We would be looking for another alternative.

OF: We mentioned Mercado and Luplow earlier, and the plan is to use Reyes some in rightfield, but no doubt, he will be more of a DH, so there are a lot of at bats to fill in LF and RF.

With Yasiel Puig a free agent, the candidates include Greg Allen (644 career OPS), Jake Bauers (691), Bradley Zimmer (652), and Daniel Johnson, who batted .290 with an 868 OPS at Columbus and Akron a year ago.

We would think the brass would like another proven bat to patrol the outfield.

Bullpen: Last season, Francona and pitching coach Carl Willis patched through the season with Brad Hand and some twine and rubber bands to put together a solid relief corps.

Fans also got a look at strikeout artist, rookie James Karinchak, who whiffed everyone in the minors, and then eight big league hitters in 5-1/3 innings.

No doubt, the Indians need more power arms at the back of their bullpen, to bridge the gap from an outstanding starting rotation to Hand, and also to not overuse their closer, which is what happened a year ago.

The Indians have some starting pitching depth to fill some of these holes. And while a few of the young players are promising, a contending team has to have fall back options.

That’s what Antonetti, Chernoff, and his crew should be working on between now and when the 2020 Tribe gets together in Goodyear, Arizona.

Improve Offense? Tribe Should Deal From Strength

The Cleveland Indians still have too many holes in their lineup for our liking. As the roster currently stands, they have three “for sure” very good offensive players.

Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez are the studs. Lindor has finished in the top 15 in the American League MVP voting each of the last four seasons, and has had an OPS over 800 in four of the five years he has worn a Cleveland uniform.

Ramirez is working on a streak of four straight seasons with an OPS over 800, although many doubted he could get there in 2019 after his extremely slow start.

The other is Carlos Santana, who even if his average drops from the career high .281 last season, still has pop and can get on base so much as anybody in the game. He has a career .367 on base percentage.

There are some players who we expect will be solid, most notably Franmil Reyes, who will be just 24 next season, and should hit a ton of home runs, but can he draw more walks and cut down on strikeouts.

We would also hope for progression from Oscar Mercado, who will be 25 and should still be getting better.

There are a lot of ifs offensively with this group, and there will probably be a regression for Roberto Perez at the dish. Perez hit a career high 24 homers in 2019.

So, how do the Indians improve themselves offensively? Luckily they have depth in a category most of the major league teams are looking for, and that would be starting pitching.

With the return to good health for Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco, the Cleveland front office has depth in this area.

Shane Bieber made the All Star team (won the game’s MVP) and finished 4th in the American League Cy Young Award voting. And Mike Clevinger went 13-4 with a 2.71 ERA in 21 starts after missing two months early in the season.

So, when Kluber and Carrasco are back, they really are the 3rd and 4th starters coming into 2020 with Clevinger and Bieber being the aces.

You can’t forget Aaron Civale, who had a 2.34 ERA in 10 starts late in the season, and had people reminded of a younger Kluber.

Of course, you need depth in the rotation to get through a 162 game season, especially when two of the starters are over 30 years old, and the Tribe has that too.

Zach Plesac (25 next year) made 21 starts and had a 3.81 ERA, allowing less hits than innings pitched and striking out twice as many batters as he walked. And Adam Plutko emerged as a serviceable fifth starter, making 20 starts.

And don’t forget Jefry Rodriguez, who made eight starts for the Indians a year ago, and southpaw Logan Allen, who came over in the three way trade at the deadline and was ranked as a top 100 prospect.

Triston McKenzie, another top 100 arm, is also now on the 40 man roster, although he missed all of last year with an injury.

So, the Indians can afford to move a starting pitcher to get some offense, and still have depth to sustain an injury or a performance not up to the expectations the organization would have.

And that might be a more palatable way to improve the hitting rather than spending big money on a free agent.

The best trades in baseball are always made from organizational depth. The Indians have what other teams want. It’s time to reap something they need for it.

You Trade For Prospects When You Are Rebuilding. The Indians Aren’t.

In recent years, the sports talk shows in Cleveland spent a lot of time talking about the NFL Draft. It seems like folks like to talk about the possibility of getting players more than the players that actually play in northeast Ohio.

When it comes to the Cleveland Indians, it comes down to trading for prospects. Apparently, it’s better to deal for young players rather than sign the great players who are already here.

Yes, we are talking through a thin veil here about Francisco Lindor. There are many in the area who think the Indians are better off rebuilding a team that won 93 games last season, rather than trying to get over the hump and get back into the post-season.

Look, if the Tribe was 75-87 this past season and had a roster loaded with a bunch of 30 year olds, we might think the same thing.

But here is a list of the Indians’ leaders in WAR for 2019–

Shane Bieber (24 years old)
Lindor (25)
Carlos Santana (33)
Mike Clevinger (28)
Roberto Perez (30)
Jose Ramirez (26)

Does this look like a team on its last legs and ready to be rebuilt?

We also subscribe to the theory that until proven otherwise, prospects are suspects until proven otherwise. Now, that doesn’t mean we don’t appreciate top minor league talent, because we do.

In 2013, there were those in the media saying the Indians should deal Lindor to get help for Terry Francona’s first year here, and we gave the opinion that was ridiculous.

Still, dealing a player like Lindor is now, and he’s one of the best ten players in the sport, for prospects is dicey at best.

For example, here is a list of the Top Ten prospects in baseball in 2016, according to Baseball America:

Corey Seager
Byron Buxton
Yoan Moncada
Jose Urias
Lucas Giolito
JP Crawford
Alex Reyes
Orlando Arcia
Trea Turner
Joey Gallo

Of those ten, Seager and Turner are very good players, and Moncada looks to be on his way. Giolito had a great year in ’19, but struggled before that.

Reyes has been hurt a lot, and Gallo has always had immense power, and looked to be improving his game this past season before he was injured.

The other have been disappointments, and getting one of them back for a player like Lindor would be a swing and a miss.

The following year’s (2017) list contained Dansby Swanson, Reyes, Nick Senzel, Willy Adames, and Amed Rosario.

That year also featured Andrew Benintendi, Moncado, Gleyber Torres, Austin Meadows, and Cody Bellinger, any of which would be a solid return for a star player.

That’s still a 50/50 proposition.

And trading a great player for three above average players isn’t a good deal either, because if you have the former, you can likely find average guys to fill in those spots.

(Think Julio Franco for Pete O’Brien, Jerry Browne, and Oddibe McDowell for you older fans).

We are sure we will hear about how the Washington Nationals went to the World Series after Bryce Harper walked away in free agency. But the Nats had Juan Soto on the horizon to basically replace Harper.

Back in 2000, the Seattle Mariners lost Alex Rodriguez to free agency and won a Major League record 116 games the following year. Just like the Nationals without Harper.

Except the Mariners haven’t been back to the playoffs again.

Look, the Indians are going to do what they are going to do. However, we think it’s better to keep great players, which Frankie Lindor is.

And he’s here for two more years, and it would be a surprise if the Indians were not contenders in either of those years.

It’s not time for a rebuild, nor it is time to trade Francisco Lindor. And people shouldn’t assume the return will be three blue chip players.

Tribe Key In Off-Season? Improve OBP.

The Cleveland Indians finished third in the American League in runs scored in 2018, and you can make a pretty good argument that dropping to seventh in this category this past season is the reason they were sitting at home.

The Tribe was third in on base percentage in ’18 and fourth in slugging percentage, the key components to offensive baseball these days. In 2019 though, the Indians dropped to 6th in slugging, and down to 8th in on base percentage.

The latter figure is something Cleveland needs to work on for the 2020 campaign, and a reason we wished the organization would have gone in a new direction with the hitting coach.

The list of Indians’ hitters with an OBP over .350 is very short: Carlos Santana, Yasiel Puig, Jordan Luplow, and Mike Freeman. Only Santana was in the lineup all year on an everyday basis.

By contrast, the Astros, whose offense is relentless, have these players over the .350 benchmark: Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, Alex Bregman, Michael Brantley, Yordan Alvarez, George Springer, and two other players who are reserves.

Boston was second in on base average (behind Houston), and had these players over .350: Brock Holt, Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers, Mookie Betts, and J.D. Martinez.

If you think we are being picky with the .350 figure, please be advised that the Tribe didn’t have anyone else over .340 either. The next best OBP was Francisco Lindor at .335.

To be fair, had Jose Ramirez hit higher than .255 this season, he would have hit the .350 level, because his strikeout to walk ratio (74:52) was solid.

To us, this indicates the lack of strike zone awareness throughout the roster, and this leads to hitters getting themselves out by swinging at bad pitches.

Sometimes this improves through experience, which is why we aren’t concerned right now with Oscar Mercado walking just 28 times in 482 plate appearances. If this number stays there next season, it could indicate a problem.

We have already touched on Lindor, whose walk rate was the lowest since his rookie year, and he got himself out plenty in clutch situations last season, swinging at a lot of pitches out of the strike zone, sometimes when he was ahead in the count.

If we were Chris Antonetti and Mike Chernoff, we would be focused on getting some guys who can get on base to help the offense next season.

It might start by giving Luplow, who had a .372 OBP in his minor league career, a shot at an everyday spot in the lineup.

And Lindor is too good of a hitter not to learn from this season and make pitchers come to him instead of helping them out.

Besides, if you can get a solid hitter who can get on base, you can get the shortstop out of the leadoff spot, and hit him in the #2 hole or lower.

Together with Santana, who has always been an on base machine, and Ramirez returning to somewhere close to his norm (he has three straight seasons over .350 from 2016-18), it would give the Indians four players who can get on base.

We would also have someone work with Franmil Reyes on his strike zone judgment. If he could layoff bad pitches more, he would be an anchor in the middle of the lineup.

Against good teams and particularly good pitchers, you have to make them work, you can’t help them out by swinging at borderline strikes.

Remember the success the Indians had vs. Justin Verlander with the Tigers? They made him throw a lot of pitches early in games, and even if they didn’t have success against him, they got him out of the game.

On base percentage is the key stat for the Indians to improve on this off-season. Not saying it’s a cure all, but it will help the offense be more “relentless”, for sure.