Tribe Season Now Is About Getting Answers

In the middle of June, the Cleveland Indians looked like a team that could challenge the White Sox for the AL Central Division title, and be in the mix for a post-season berth.

After beating Minnesota on June 24th, the Tribe was ten games over .500 at 41-31 just two games behind Chicago. Yes, they seemed to be doing it with mirrors, but they were winning.

On the other hand, you felt it was a matter of time before the injuries to the starting pitching staff would take its toll.

Cleveland lost 11 of their next 12 games and the team fell 8 games off the pace.

Suddenly, the rest of this season becomes about not just winning baseball games, but also finding out things, getting answers of players.

We would think based on the current players in the organization, the only positions that can be etched in stone for 2022: Jose Ramirez at 3B, Franmil Reyes at DH, and probably Myles Straw in CF.

Here are questions to be asked, and our thoughts on the answers.

Can Bobby Bradley claim a regular job heading into spring training 2022? To us, the key to that is can Bradley develop enough plate discipline. He’s more patient for sure, but it hasn’t translated into drawing walks. His strikeouts are down a bit (40.8% to 35.6%) and walks are up (8.2% to 10.3%) from his brief appearance in 2019.

You can live with the strikeouts if he can draw more walks, but can he do that.

Our guess is the Tribe will be looking for someone else to play the spot, perhaps Josh Naylor?, in 2022.

Can Owen Miller figure in the mix? His minor league pedigree (.305 batting average, 818 OPS) say he should be able to, but he’s hitting .139 in 72 at bats thus far. Since getting called back up, he been slightly better (5 for 21, 3 walks), but has to start putting together consistent at bats.

We’d give him a long look because of those minor league numbers. The Indians could use a solid bat, and need to see if Miller can be one.

What’s the future of Amed Rosario? Rosario has one of the higher batting averages on the team, and he has great speed, but he doesn’t walk (just 23 in 405 plate appearances) and really doesn’t provide any pop. His 697 OPS is below league average and his defense at short has been very shaky.

With Andres Gimenez back up, it will be interesting to see how Rosario is used. The Tribe has to feel Gimenez is the better glove, so where does that leave Rosario? Especially when they have to see what Miller can do with consistent at bats.

We get that isn’t a popular opinion, but we don’t see Rosario in the long term future for the Tribe.

What about the outfield? Chris Antonetti and Mike Chernoff didn’t get Straw to sit, he’s going to get everyday playing time in CF. So, can someone out of Bradley Zimmer, Oscar Mercado, Harold Ramirez, and even Daniel Johnson seize a spot for next year?

Remember, Zimmer is the oldest of that quartet at 29, Johnson the youngest at 25. Like it or not, that could be a determining factor. We are sure that management would love it if one of them got hot at the plate and take a job. Right now, only Ramirez is even average with a bat in his hand.

The front office has to find out the answers to these questions because otherwise they will likely be stuck with the same logjam when they take the field in Goodyear next February.

The dynamic of the team and the coaching staff will still be to win as maybe games as they can, but with an eye on development of these players, some of whom aren’t as young as you think. As Antonetti says, it’s like threading the eye of a needle.

Tribe Slump A Result Of All Phases

On June 24th, the Cleveland Indians beat the Minnesota Twins 4-1 to bring their record to 41-31, and were just two games behind the White Sox in the American League Central Division.

Since that day, the Tribe has gone 7-17, including a nine game losing streak from June 30th, when they lost a doubleheader to Detroit to July 7th, when they lost a twin bill to Tampa.

And they’ve also lost 11 straight games to the Rays, spanning back to 2019.

The injuries to the starting pitching gets quite a bit of the blame for this bad streak, but in Cleveland’s last 29 games, a span that actually started earlier than the losing, the Indians have scored more than four runs just seven times.

Amazingly, they have lost three of those games.

Since the beginning of July, the Tribe has lost three games where they had the lead going into the 9th inning.

The point is this stretch has been brutal for Terry Francona’s squad, with each area of the roster contributing to the losing.

The team had to be happy when a starting pitcher gives them five quality innings, but recently, Zach Plesac has returned to give them some good outings, and Cal Quantrill has gone 2-0 with a 3.22 ERA in four starts.

Rookie Eli Morgan has been able to pitch five innings in each of his last five outings. His ERA has been 6.12 in those starts, but he has given the team a chance to win each time.

So, despite the injuries to their top three starters, the starting pitching hasn’t been awful. Triston McKenzie has been better since his most recent visit to Columbus either. Unfortunately, JC Mejia continues to show he’s not ready to pitch in the majors.

The bullpen has shown signs of wear and tear to the three late inning relievers, with Emmanuel Clase blowing two ninth inning leads and James Karinchak one, and Bryan Shaw has allowing 11 runs, nine earned in his last 17 appearances.

The offense has struggled along with their best weapon, Jose Ramirez. In his last seven games, Ramirez is just 2 for 18, with a homer. Over the last 14 days, he is hitting .160 (4 for 25). Even worse, over the last 28 days, he’s hitting .230 with four long balls. He still has an 846 OPS in that span.

His production has dropped since he was hit in the foot by a pitch against Pittsburgh, which coincidentally is when the Cleveland offense hit this cold patch over the last 29 games. He has also been battling a sore elbow.

Ramirez is by far the best position player on the team, and because of that, if he is struggling, it is very difficult for this offense to get anything going. The only consistent hitters Francona has are Jose, Franmil Reyes, and Harold Ramirez, and for some reason, the latter gets left out of the lineup far too often.

Yes, some players have pitched in from time to time, such as Bobby Bradley who has belted 11 homers, but in July, he has batted .158 with 30 strikeouts in 72 plate appearances. He has taken some walks, but the swing and miss issues are still a major issue.

The defense also breaks down a lot. Cesar Hernandez’ work with the glove has taken a dramatic dip. Amed Rosario has range issues and problems turning the double play. Fly balls hit to anyone besides Bradley Zimmer and Oscar Mercado have become adventures.

That doesn’t help a young pitching staff either.

Among the everyday players, outside of the two Ramirez’s and Reyes, could the front office make a deal that would weaken any other position? We doubt it. Let’s say Hernandez is moved, it would give Owen Miller another shot. Amed? They could get another look at Andres Gimenez, who would at least provide better defense.

No, the Indians shouldn’t go into tank mode, but they should look to reshape the roster with an eye towards 2022. Getting Shane Bieber and Aaron Civale back should mean an improved offense put the Indians in contention next year.

But they should look to get stronger in all areas too. There is room for that in all phases of the game.

Evaluating Amed Rosario

According to Baseball-Reference.com, seven of the Cleveland Indians’ leaders in WAR (wins above replacement) are pitchers, including Shane Bieber, Aaron Civale, and Zach Plesac, all of whom have missed considerable time this year due to injury.

The only position players who rank among the top ten are Jose Ramirez, Franmil Reyes, and Harold Ramirez. Bradley Zimmer ranks 11th, and it is very telling that Oscar Mercado, who has appeared in 16 games for Cleveland (44 plate appearances) is 12th.

What does that say about the guys who have spent most of the year on the big league roster?

One Tribesman who has received positive reviews is SS/CF Amed Rosario, who came over to Cleveland from the New York Mets in the Francisco Lindor transaction.

Rosario has stabilized the #2 spot in the batting order and has very good speed, and plays hard. That’s the good stuff.

Offensively, he’s basically a platoon player. Against lefties, he has a .287 batting average and a 788 OPS, getting 11 extra base hits in 108 at bats. But right-handed pitchers have held him to a .260 batting average and a 641 OPS, with just 10 extra base hits in 208 at bats.

He also doesn’t walk. We were concerned when he was acquired that he walked just four times all season for the Mets in 2020. He’s only drawn 18 free passes for the Indians this year, which is 5.3% of his times at the dish.

For contrast, that’s just slightly better than Harold Ramirez, described by many as a free swinger. Ramirez walks in 4.6% of his at bats. Ramirez also has just one less extra base hit than Amed Rosario, despite having over 100 less plate appearances.

And defensively, let’s just say A. Rosario is not going to be a finalist for the Gold Glove in the American League once the season ends.

Rosario stands out because most of the other people Terry Francona writes on a lineup card each day is pretty mediocre. That’s not to say he’s terrible, he has very good speed and is a very good baserunner, and he likes to hit the ball where it is pitched, which is a lost art in baseball these days.

But players with a 691 OPS are not good hitters. Rosario has a poor strikeout to walk ratio (67:18) and doesn’t hit for power, and we don’t mean home runs, but extra base hits. That’s why people look at on base percentage and slugging percentage. They are important statistics.

We remember many years ago when Tribe fans and media alike fawned over Felix Fermin, who handled balls hit at him very well, but didn’t have much range. When Fermin was sent to Seattle in the deal that brought Cleveland Omar Vizquel, we told people they would soon see what a great defensive shortstop really looked like.

Their frame of reference was watching players who were basically average. When you are used to that, above average looks much better.

And that’s Amed Rosario at the plate. When compared to the rest of the Tribe lineup, he stands out. In a solid lineup, he’s batting 8th or 9th. There’s nothing wrong with that, just don’t be fooled.

Tribe Offense Could Use More Walking.

There has been a lot of discussion over the past few seasons about “launch angle” and the way baseball has gone with the approach of hitting over defensive shifts and strikeouts are no big deal.

Maybe the pendulum is starting to switch.

Everyone’s friends, the Houston Astros might be changing the narrative. The Astros lead the major leagues in runs scored, yet have struck out the fewest times of any team. Toronto, who has scored the third most runs, have whiffed the next fewest.

While it is true the other teams in the top five rank more toward the middle of the pack in striking out (Dodgers-19th, Red Sox-14th, White Sox-13th), of the teams that fan the most, only Tampa Bay, whose hitters have struck out more than anyone, score more than the sports average (4.48 runs/game).

The next best team is Atlanta, who have scored the 7th most runs.

Let’s compare the Astros and Blue Jays offenses to the hometown team, the Cleveland Indians.

The Astros have six hitters who get regular at bats with on base percentages of over .350, and four players have more than 35 walks. As we just saw when the swept the Tribe in a four game series here, when their hitters get to two strikes, they have a more old school approach, looking to put the ball in play.

They also have seven batters with slugging averages over .450.

Toronto isn’t a team that walks a lot, with only Vladimir Guerrero Jr. having an on base percentage over .350, although Bo Bichette and Marcus Simien are close. They do have five hitters with slugging percentages over .450.

As for the Tribe, they have only one hitter with an OBP over .350, and that’s Bradley Zimmer, which is quite shocking, but he only has slightly over 100 plate appearances. Among players with over 200 PA’s, there is no one. Jose Ramirez’ .347 figure leads the team, with Franmil Reyes (who actually has just 197 times at the dish) next at .325.

As for slugging percentage, the Indians have just three players over .450: Jose Ramirez (.518), Reyes (.597), and Harold Ramirez (.451).

We know we are stating the obvious, but the Indians simply need more good hitters. To have an offense like Houston or Toronto, they need really three good hitters. More to the point, they need guys who don’t make outs.

The next best offenses in the AL, the White Sox and Red Sox breakdown as follows–Chicago has four solid on base hitters (over .350 OBP), but only two sluggers, although Tim Anderson’s slugging percentage is .447.

Boston has just two on base guys, but five sluggers, including Christian Arroyo, who Cleveland let go last season.

Cesar Hernandez and Amed Rosario have been okay, although the latter seems to be getting a lot of love from the baseball media lately. Hernandez has a .300 on base percentage, and although Rosario has good speed, and does hit the ball the other way, his OBP is just .307 because he doesn’t walk, which was his problem with the Mets.

Hernandez has had good years of getting on base, and is tied for the team lead in walks with Ramirez at 35. As a team, the Indians rank 13th in taking walks, and that needs to improve greatly for the team to score more often.

We are a huge believer in strike zone judgment being a big factor as to whether or not hitters have a solid long range future. That doesn’t bode well for the Cleveland lineup going forward. It’s also one of the reasons we would like to see more of Jordan Luplow.

Despite being on the IL since the end of May, and having only 121 plate appearances, he still ranks third on the team in walks with 21. It’s a skill this team needs.

We aren’t saying it’s the only way to improve the offense, but it’s a start in the right direction. Walking is good, the Tribe should do more of it.

When It Comes To WAR, Tribe Every Day Players Rank Low

Since we are halfway through the Major League Baseball season, we thought it would be a good time to evaluate the performance of the roster of the local nine, the Cleveland Indians.

And if look at WAR (Wins Above Replacement), at least according to BaseballReference.com, it doesn’t paint a pretty picture.

According to their version of the formula, the Indians rank third from the bottom for non-pitchers, ahead of only the Orioles and Tigers. Even with all the injuries to the pitching staff, Cleveland pitchers rank 4th, behind only the Yankees, White Sox, and Blue Jays.

To break it down further for the guys who stand on the mound, Tribe starters rank 8th, which could have been expected considering the injuries to Shane Bieber, Zach Plesac, and Aaron Civale, and the performance of the hurlers who replaced them.

However, the Indians’ bullpen ranks second in the AL, trailing just Boston.

As for the position players, it’s not a pretty picture. Since there are 15 American League teams, we will consider the top eight to be in the top half of the league. Using that standing, the Tribe has only two positions ranking in the top half, third base, of course manned by Jose Ramirez, the team’s best player and an All Star for the third time, and DH.

Franmil Reyes is the usual designated hitter, and his OPS (914) leads the team. And while Reyes was out, Terry Francona used a number of players at the spot to give them rest, one of whom was Ramirez.

The next highest ranking by position is rightfield, manned most often by the now injured Josh Naylor, followed by Harold Ramirez, who has an OPS of just under 800 (785).

Cleveland ranks in the bottom three at two positions, catcher and second base. We know the team values defense first and foremost at the catcher position, but having Roberto Perez out for two months didn’t help. And that said, we felt Austin Hedges did a marvelous job handling the pitchers, many of whom are getting their first big league experience.

Despite the good defense, Perez and Hedges have combined to hit .146 with 7 HR and 22 RBI. Those numbers are slightly better than having the pitcher hitting.

At second, Cesar Hernandez has put up surprising power numbers, he is one off his career high in HR, but his on base percentage is not what the brass is looking for and his defense hasn’t been what it was a year ago.

They are one spot above that at first base and leftfield. Bobby Bradley has helped the numbers at first, but that was after watching two months of a Jake Bauers/Yu Chang platoon at the position. The left-handed hitter has belted 8 homers and drawn 10 walks to date.

Eddie Rosario has been the primary guy in left, and although he’s been hitting better in the past month, his OPS is still under 700 (685). And let’s just say, he’s not going to win a Gold Glove anytime soon.

That would leave SS and surprisingly CF as the next best positions. Amed Rosario has stabilized short, but despite being hot over the last six weeks, he still has a 690 OPS, which is below average. The Tribe is still looking for someone to take charge in center.

It just shows there is still a lot of progress needed in the everyday lineup, and how the organization has worked around this to still have a winning record.

We don’t think WAR is the end all, be all statistic in baseball. But using it to compare the production of your team vs. others seems legitimate

Tribe Still Has Leadoff Woes

Former Indians’ manager Mike Hargrove used to say if a team had a leadoff hitter and a cleanup hitter, everything else kind of fell into place in terms of making out the batting order.

This season, the #4 spot in the order has been one of the more productive spots for the Tribe, with an OPS of 746, ranking third for the season behind the #3 spot, occupied by Jose Ramirez, and the #5 spot, which has an OPS of 781, and has the most home runs (19) of any spot.

However, the leadoff spot continues to be troubling.

Since the job at that spot is to get on base, having a .287 on base percentage from that spot means more often than not, the game starts with one out. And only the #7 and #9 have a more difficult time reaching base safely.

Last season, Cesar Hernandez did a great job in the leadoff spot. He had a .355 OBP, pretty much in line with his career norm. However this season, that figure has dropped to .299. Ideally, a .350 figure equals being a good leadoff man. Right now, it’s a problem for an offense that struggles to score runs, ranking below average in the AL in that department.

The .299 figure is based on the entire season. After Hernandez was moved into the #1 hole by Terry Francona in May, his on base average is actually the same at .299

Granted, the switch-hitter has hit in tough luck for much of the season. He has hit an inordinate amount of line drives that have resulted in outs. So, maybe those liners will start dropping and the former Phillie will get on a hot streak.

He does have a 792 OPS vs. southpaws, but that is a result of hitting for more power right-handed. He has a .476 slugging percentage vs. LHP compared to just .337 vs. right-handers. His on base figure is comparable, .289 vs. RHP and .316 vs. lefties.

The real problem for Francona is there isn’t a viable alternative on the roster. Among players with more than 100 plate appearances, Ramirez gets on base the most at .347, but moving him to the leadoff spot creates a hole at #3.

By the way, that isn’t a reason to not hit him there. We would seriously consider it because it would also get him up to the plate more often.

Ranking behind Ramirez is the injured Jordan Luplow (.331), who actually did leadoff quite a bit before Hernandez was moved there. He still ranks third on the team in walks behind Hernandez and Ramirez. Following Luplow is Amed Rosario with a .331 OBP.

Bradley Zimmer has a .353 on base average, but that figure is skewed because he has been hit by six pitches to date. Without those, his figure drops to .288. If he could promise to keep getting hit, maybe he could bat first, but it doesn’t seem like that’s something that can be sustained.

At Columbus, Owen Miller has a .407 figure, but he struggled when given an opportunity with the big club. Both Gabriel Arias and Nolan Jones are over .350, but neither has spent a day in the majors and thrusting them into the leadoff spot puts a lot of pressure on a young player.

So, the alternatives are hoping Hernandez’ line drives start falling in or putting Ramirez in the top spot in the order, which might work when Franmil Reyes comes back. Francona could go–

Ramirez
A. Rosario
E. Rosario
Reyes
Bradley

Getting guys on base leading off an inning really helps an offense, it doesn’t take a genius to see that. It certainly would help the Cleveland offense.

Tribe Need Quality Innings Out Of Guys Who Start

It was another week involving injuries for the Cleveland Indians. After the shocking news at the beginning of the week that Shane Bieber had a shoulder strain, the Tribe also lost Austin Hedges to a concussion on Thursday and in Friday’s 11-10 loss to the Pirates, they lost Jose Ramirez with a bruised foot after being hit by a pitch.

That necessitated veteran Ryan Lavarnway being called up to help out behind the plate, and yesterday, Bobby Bradley, who doesn’t have 100 big league at bats yet, was forced to hit third.

Amazingly, the Indians cobbled together a sweep against Baltimore despite not having any starting pitcher throw more frames than the five pitched by Aaron Civale in game three of the series.

In fact, the last Cleveland starter to go more than five was Bieber last Sunday and he only went 5-2/3. The last Tribe hurler to see the seventh inning was Civale, who pitched eight, one hit innings against the Mariners a week ago Friday.

It’s difficult to imagine that working over a decent period of time without taking a toll on the entire pitching staff.

It was encouraging to see both JC Mejia and Cal Quantrill both go five innings against Pittsburgh in the last two games, so maybe they are finally stretched out enough to get into and perhaps complete six innings in their next start.

The relief corps has taken a heavy toll this past week and yesterday’s game might have been the first sign of pitchers showing wear and tear on their arms.

Bryan Shaw’s comeback story has been remarkable, but he has walked 24 hitters in 28 innings this season, although the damage has been limited because he only gave up 15 hits. However, his last three appearances have been dreadful, pitching two innings, allowing five hits and five walks.

Overall in June, the veteran righty has pitched 7-1/3 innings, giving up nine hits and eight walks for a 9.82 ERA. You have to think Terry Francona will look elsewhere the next time the seventh inning of a close game arises.

James Karinchak also has shown signs of a little wear. Remember, he pitched only 27 innings a year ago, and has already topped that this season. He pitched three days in a row last week in the Baltimore series.

In April, Karinchak was beyond dominant, allowing just two hits and striking out 22 of the 34 batters he faced. In May, he fanned 21 of the 45 batters that came to the plate and allowed only six hits, although three of them were homers.

To date in June, he has whiffed just 12 of the 27 batters who dug in against him, and allowed another home run yesterday. Just something to keep an eye on.

We are sure Francona and the Tribe front office look at the Tampa Bay model in handling the pitching staff without real starters. However the Rays have four pitchers with over 25 appearances, five with over 20, but only one (Ryan Thompson) with over 30 games pitched.

Cleveland has six pitchers with more than 20 appearances, but three of them, Shaw, Karinchak, and Emmanuel Clase, have appeared in more than 30 games.

This might be a subtle difference, but it is something to keep an eye on, and shows again, the need for starters to provide more length. It is very tough for a bullpen to keep this kind of burden over a long season.

The Indians are a team built on starting pitching. To us, as soon as Logan Allen and Triston McKenzie showed they weren’t ready, the organization should have started grooming Quantrill for one of those spots.

After all, he was set to be a starter in spring training. They are doing it now, but they may have lost a couple of weeks of development.

Hopefully, by the All Star break, Plesac and Bieber will be close to returning if not ready. That could provide a boost to a rotation currently running on fumes.

Tito Mixing And Matching Nightly With Lineup.

Mike Hargrove said it when he was managing the Cleveland Indians, there are two things that every man thinks he can better than everyone else, those are cooking a steak and managing a baseball team.

And despite winning two World Series and getting to a third, Terry Francona still hears his share of questions about how he handles the Cleveland Indians. Heck, half the fun of watching a baseball game is trying to manage along with your favorite team’s skipper.

We do it too, we aren’t going to deny it.

The Indians rank 9th in the American League in spite of being second last in the league in batting average. Yes, we know batting average isn’t in vogue right now, so they are also 14th in the AL in on base percentage.

They are doing it with a team that really only has five regulars: Jose Ramirez at 3B, Cesar Hernandez at 2B, Eddie Rosario in LF, Franmil Reyes at DH, and when healthy, Roberto Perez behind the plate.

Everyday, Francona has to decide who should play at shortstop, first base, centerfield and rightfield. Now, Josh Naylor has been in the lineup somewhere on an everyday basis, so he’s either at first or in right. But, Francona has to mix and match at three spots on a nightly basis.

He’s tried going with the hot hand. Jordan Luplow was hot earlier in the season, culminating in a walk off HR against Minnesota. So, he started getting regular playing time. He responded by going 1 for 22 over a seven game stretch.

Amed Rosario had four hits, including the game winner Wednesday afternoon against the Cubs. He started the first three games of the Seattle series at shortstop in place of a struggling Andres Gimenez, and went 1 for 12.

Harold Ramirez came up for the Kansas City series and gave the offense a spark, getting four hits in the first two games. He followed that with a 2 for 18 stretch, before getting two hits, including a home run in last night’s 7-3 loss to the Mariners.

At first base, everyone thought it was a matter of time before Jake Bauers would be replaced by Bobby Bradley as the left-handed hitting platoon. However, it’s the right-handed half that seems to have lost his job.

Yu Chang pinch hit last night, but hasn’t been in the lineup vs. southpaws over the past week. Going 7 for 50 with just two extra base hits seems to have cost him his job, and soon, perhaps his roster spot. At AAA, Bradley has started off just 6 for 37 with 15 strikeouts. He has belted three homers.

Bauers isn’t exactly tearing the cover off the ball either, and that has resulted in Naylor playing more at first.

Our point is that it’s a tremendous challenge for Francona and whoever helps him make out the lineup to put a competitive attack out there. Consistency is the best feature a professional athlete can have, and the Indians don’t have many consistent hitters.

And before you say just bring up players from AAA, it has to be a good fit. The last thing the organization wants is for a top prospect to come up and get sporadic playing time. It generally doesn’t help the development of the player.

That said, we believe some changes will be coming soon.

The pitching has for the most part held up their end of the bargain. We’ve said it before, how successful the Cleveland Indians will be depends on how many runs they can score.

Terry Francona has a challenge getting his team to do that with the current make up of the team.

Nothing New: If Tribe Can Score, They Can Contend

So far in this 2021 Major League Baseball season, it’s quite simple: If the Cleveland Indians score four runs in a game, they win.

When the Indians get to that figure, they are 17-1 on the season. When they don’t, they are 1-13. The only game they lost when reaching the four run figure was the second Carlos Rodon/Zach Plesac matchup in Cleveland, when the White Sox beat the Tribe 8-5.

The only game they won scoring less than four? The epic Shane Bieber/Lucas Giolito game that went to 10 innings and resulted in a 2-0 Cleveland win.

Recently, the Indians’ offense has been a little better, Friday night’s no-hitter not withstanding. In their current stretch where they’ve one 10 out of 13, the Tribe has scored an average of 4.8 runs per game, getting at least four in all of the wins.

Overall on the season, the league average is 4.41 runs, and the Tribe is sitting at 4.25, so they are still below average.

So, it’s simple right? If the Indians can have close to a league average offense, they can be a contender in the AL Central. The two favorites coming into the season, the White Sox and Twins have problems. Chicago has lost two key offensive pieces in Eloy Jimenez and Luis Robert, and the Twins have injury and bullpen issues to date.

Now, the question is, can the Tribe put together a league average offense?

Right now, the Cleveland attack is very top heavy. They have two real good offensive players, with OPS’ over 800 in Franmil Reyes (914) and Jose Ramirez (891). They have only two other players with an OPS over 700–Jordan Luplow at 789, and his batting average is just .171, and Josh Naylor at 724.

To date, the league average OPS is 704, so Cleveland has just four hitters who are better than the American League average.

That’s not good, nor does it bode well for the future.

We believe Eddie Rosario and Cesar Hernandez’ track records indicate they will hit, and while Rosario has had several years where he has been above the 800 OPS mark, Hernandez is more of a 750 OPS batter, meaning he’s above average, but not on the elite level.

The key continues to be Josh Naylor. If Naylor can hit like he has so far in May (.300 with two home runs and a 930 OPS in a small sample size), the Tribe’s offense just may be good enough. Notice that his surge has tied in with the offense being better.

First base is still a disaster area with Jake Bauers and Yu Chang combining to go 18 for 104 with just a single home run. Please note we are again talking about 32 games, not 10 anymore.

And the defense, particularly in the outfield, has been poor. Harold Ramirez has provided a bit of a spark with the bat (five hits this week, including three doubles), but he’s not a centerfielder. We know Naylor isn’t going to win a gold glove in right, and Rosario is average in left.

Terry Francona has tried to play Amed Rosario at shortstop against lefties, but it seems like he makes one misplay in each game he is out there.

And Roberto Perez’ finger injury means we will see a lot of Austin Hedges behind the plate, and let’s be kind and say he is offensively challenged. We know the Indians go defense first behind the plate, and we understand that, but right now, that position provides a slight upgrade over a pitcher offensively.

We have already seen opposing teams start to pitch around Ramirez and take their chances with Rosario and Reyes, and so far, they’ve come through. But given a choice, it wouldn’t be shocking to see more teams simply not give Ramirez anything to hit in late innings.

Nothing really has changed for the Tribe. If they can score, they can contend. Their ability to push runs across remains the key to the 2021 season.

Lack Of Scoring Puts Tribe On Razor’s Edge

It is still early, very early in the 2021 Major League Baseball season. We still are just a middle past the middle of April, and the Cleveland Indians have only played 14 games, less than 10% of its schedule.

However, for many, including ourselves, who were concerned about the ability of Terry Francona’s squad to score runs, the trepidation is real.

Through the first 15 games, the Indians rank dead last in the American League in scoring. This current trip. which has included six games, have the Tribe tallying 14 runs, and two of those occurred in the ten inning win over Chicago last Tuesday, when the dumb MLB rules people gave Cleveland a runner on second to start the inning.

Wednesday night, they were no hit by Chicago’s Carlos Rodon in a game were their plate appearance got progressively worse as the night moved on.

Cleveland is last in the AL in on base percentage, 9th in slugging (mainly because they are 3rd in the league in home runs), last in batting average, and second last in OPS+.

Without a doubt, they are one of the worst offenses in the game to date.

In their 14 contests, they have scored two runs or less six times, three runs or less eight times, and four runs or less in all but three games. ‘Keep in mind, the average team in the Junior Circuit scores 4.5 runs in a game.

When you score that few runs, the other parts of your game have to be perfect. Your pitchers can’t have bad outings, and the Tribe had two of them (Zach Plesac and Logan Allen) this week. You can’t make defensive mistakes, which have cost Cleveland in both games in Cincinnati. You can’t make baserunning errors either, like Eddie Rosario’s in the 8th inning yesterday.

The entire team is living on the edge right now.

We felt going into the season, Francona had four, maybe five solid hitters in his lineup. When two of them are going through tough periods, like Cesar Hernandez and Jose Ramirez went through at the beginning of the trip, that means you have two or three hitters contributing.

That simply doesn’t cut it.

The front office had an entire season to find a centerfielder after Oscar Mercado lost the job, and they still haven’t found one. They seem to be trying to give the job to Amed Rosario, a converted shortstop who is more of platoon piece (he hits southpaws very well), and started the year using Ben Gamel there as well.

They seem hesitant to give Jordan Luplow, who also hammers lefties, a shot at a full time job out there, although the former Pirate didn’t have huge platoon splits in the minors.

The best thing you can say about the offense is they generally put the ball in play.

Former Tribe skipper Mike Hargrove used to say something to the effect of if you have a good leadoff hitter and a cleanup hitter, your lineup takes shape on its own. Right now, the Indians have no one who should hit first, except Hernandez, who has told Francona he doesn’t like hitting first.

He leads the team in walks with eight, and has a career .351 on base average.

They really don’t have a true #4 hitter either. Franmil Reyes is too streaky at this point in his career, and Eddie Rosario isn’t bad, but ideally should hit fifth or sixth.

That means Francona is left with putting together a puzzle every night, and that makes his job very difficult.

Where can the offense come from? That’s the million dollar question. Yes, there are alternatives in the minors, but we don’t a big impact will come from there.

Perhaps a change in approach by Francona? Maybe the team can be more aggressive on the basepaths, more steals, more hit and runs? They don’t strikeout, so the latter might be a plan.

The Indians have to start putting together a way to score more often, otherwise, the margin for error for this baseball team will continue to be very thin.