Tribe OF Candidates Off To Slow Start

It is almost universally reported that the biggest question mark the Cleveland Indians have heading into the 2019 baseball season was their outfield.

Granted it’s early, but how have the candidates performed now that we are a week into exhibition play in the Cactus League.

We have said all winter that centerfield was the one spot we were comfortable with heading into spring training, and early returns have provided us with support for that feeling.

Leonys Martin has returned from his life threatening illness from last season and hit the ground running, getting seven hits in his first 13 at bats, and has a walk too. One of his hits has been a home run.

We felt Martin was an underrated get at the trade deadline because of his defense and ability to hit right-handed pitching, and felt he would be a big contributor to the roster in 2019 if healthy.

It certainly looks like that’s the case thus far.

We figured Greg Allen to be Martin’s platoon partner, but the switch-hitter is trying to get an everyday gig, starting off at 5 for 13, with a double, home run, and a walk. If he keeps it up, you may just see Allen in leftfield and Martin in center with a right-hander on the mound.

The other “serious” candidates, basing that on either veteran status or minor league numbers have struggled a bit.

Matt Joyce, 34, who had a poor year in Oakland last year after some solid years as a platoon piece has started off the spring 0 for 12, with just one walk and four strikeouts. In his situation, he better start hitting as soon as possible to avoid drawing his release papers.

Tyler Naquin, who homered in his first spring at bat, has gone just 2 for 13 since with a double, and has yet to draw a free pass. We understand that players aren’t working the count like they would in the regular season, but Naquin isn’t a guy with a high walk rate in his brief big league tenure.

The hope for a right-handed bat, Jordan Luplow, who had good AAA numbers in the Pirates’ organization, is also off to a tough start. He’s just 1 for 11 with two walks, and has fanned six times. Let’s just say he’s not making a very good first impression.

Oscar Mercado was considered a long shot coming into camp, but Luplow’s struggles probably increase his chances of sticking. He’s had five hits in his 15 at bats with a home run. He has whiffed four times without drawing a walk.

These performances could be why management has been looking for Hanley Ramirez to provide some hitting. Unfortunately, he’s only been a premier hitter at the major league level once in the last four seasons.

If he can stick, it would move Jake Bauers to the outfield, probably with Martin in CF and Allen in RF against righties. When a southpaw starts? Your guess is as good as mine, but it could be Allen in CF, with either Luplow or Mercado in RF.

It would have been nice if the front office brought in a proven big league performer to play the outfield, but the cost cutting mandate from ownership prevented that.

For now, the Tribe has to hope someone starts hitting and continues it when the season opens on March 28th.

Tribe Front Office Depends On Tito’s Magic

While we have been critical of Indians’ manager Terry Francona at times because of his problem with the fine line between patience and stubbornness, mostly we kind of feel bad for him because of what the front office does to him.

Tito has guided the Tribe to three consecutive American League Central Division titles, and has had to do so by having to put together a puzzle each and every season.

He has had great starting pitching, really since he’s been the Indians’ skipper in 2013, and in ’16 and ’17, had a tremendous bullpen as well. But, we think even he would like the opportunity to write the same names down in a starting lineup each and every day.

Prior to last Sunday, it looked like the only positions to be decided were left field and right field, and there were options in both spots. Not proven options, but the prevailing thought was a combination of Jordan Luplow, Tyler Naquin, Matt Joyce in those spots.

Then the front office signed Hanley Ramirez, a 35-year-old designated hitter, who really has had one above average season since 2014.

As a result, now the manager is looking at playing Jake Bauers in left, which would weaken the outfield defense.

Ramirez is in camp on a minor league contract, and if he can return to the hitter he was in 2016, when he hit .286 with 30 home runs, and knocked in 111 with an 866 OPS, it would be a boost to the offense. However, how likely is that?

As stated previously, that season is the only above average season the veteran has had since 2014 when he had an 817 OPS with the Dodgers. He was 30 at the time.

Seriously, is Francona making plans based on the long shot Ramirez can win a starting job? That seems like an extreme case of putting the cart before the horse. He hasn’t even had one at bat in Arizona as of yet.

This is the situation the Tribe front office always seems to put its manager in, having to manipulate the roster to get the most out each and every position player.

Last season, he was forced to play two defensive liabilities in the corner outfield spots in Michael Brantley and Melky Cabrera. And the front office rushed to replace Carlos Santana (since back) at first with Yonder Alonso, who the skipper figured out half way through the year couldn’t hit lefties.

In 2017, Francona platooned in CF (Bradley Zimmer and Austin Jackson) and RF (Lonnie Chisenhall and Brandon Guyer). The year the Tribe went to the World Series, he used four players, including Jose Ramirez, more than 20 games in left field.

Amazingly, in ’15, the Indians had only four position players who played in 100 games–Santana, Jason Kipnis, Brantley, and Chisenhall. That was shocking to us.

Francona has done a remarkable job maximizing what the organization has given him, but we’ll bet he would appreciate being able to write the same names on a lineup card on a daily basis.

Add to that, not having to be hopeful a veteran will regain the fountain of youth to add some pop to the batting order.

There are no bonus points for winning with the highest degree of difficulty.

This is why critics should overlook Tito’s quirks as manager. He gets a lot out of some marginal players. This off-season appears to provide the Indians’ manager with the ultimate test.

Tribe’s OF In Flux

It is almost universal throughout the baseball community that the Cleveland Indians currently have an outfield substandard for a team which should be a World Series contender.

The loss of Michael Brantley, the best hitter among the players who patrol the grass, makes the weakness even more prominent.

In 2018, the Tribe searched for a centerfielder most of the season. Bradley Zimmer opened the season as the regular, but he was striking out at an alarming rate (44 times in 114 plate appearances), and Rajai Davis and his 559 OPS wasn’t the answer either.

The front office thought it fixed the problem by dealing for Leonys Martin at the trading deadline, but he went down with a serious illness, and the problem was there again.

Greg Allen finished the year strong, but he was displaced by Jason Kipnis when Josh Donaldson was acquired.

Melky Cabrera settled down RF after Lonnie Chisenhall was hurt, but he isn’t a plus in the field, and Brandon Guyer never regained the production he was achieving when he arrived in 2016.

This brings us to 2019 Spring Training.

We actually like the situation in center, where Martin and Allen figure to platoon. The former had a 799 OPS vs. right handed pitcher a year ago, hitting .279 with a .451 slugging percentage.

Allen hit .297 after August 1st in ’18, and although he is also stronger against righties, he’s not as bad as Martin vs. southpaws. He might get some time in rightfield against right-handers too, if he can hit like he did at the end of last season.

Tyler Naquin is slotted to garner a good share of playing time, but after a very hot start to his career, he has struggled. Since August 1, 2016, he has batted just .247 with 5 HR and 35 RBI. And he will be 28 years old in April.

He has also had problems staying healthy over the past two years. Defensively, he seems better suited to a corner outfield spot, which is where he figures to play this season.

25 year old Jordan Luplow is an interesting case. He couldn’t find playing time in a crowded and talented Pittsburgh outfield, and he’s hit just .185 (631 OPS) in 92 big league at bats.

However, in AAA, he’s a .300 hitter (857 OPS) with 51 extra base hits in 132 games at that level. To us, he deserves a long look as an everyday player at one of the corner positions.

Recently signed Matt Joyce (34), had solid seasons in 2016 and 2017 with Pittsburgh and Oakland respectively. But last year, he hit just .208 (675 OPS). He’s a platoon piece, with a career OPS of 802 vs. right-handers and a .184 batting mark vs. lefties at the big league level.

At his age, the big question is can he hit like he did in the two seasons prior to 2018.

The unknown player (and often forgotten) is Oscar Mercado, who came over from St. Louis at the trade deadline for Connor Capel in a rare prospect for prospect deal.

A right-handed bat, Mercado spent all of last year in AAA, hitting .278 with 8 HR and 47 RBI between Memphis and Columbus. He also stole 37 bases.

As a bonus, his strikeouts have dropped and his walks have increased as he has advanced in the minor leagues. He’s just 24 years old.

Our guess is the Indians’ management would like Mercado to start the year in AAA, but if he has a great spring, who knows…

Based on past production, Terry Francona will earn his money figuring out who are the best three guys to play in the outfield on a game by game basis. Hopefully, by the end of May, it becomes clearer who can contribute and will the Indians need to add someone by the end of July.

What Options Remain For Tribe OF?

A couple of weeks ago, we talked about what free agents we wanted the Cleveland Indians to pursue this off-season. We felt Nick Markakis and D.J. LeMahieu were two guys who could be signed at reasonable deals and could help the Tribe.

Now, both are signed, Markakis to a very club friendly $6 million, one year deal, and the Indians still have a gaping hole in the outfield. Their options are getting slimmer by the week.

This has been rehashed before, so why not one more time. If the season began today, the likely outfield alignment would be Leonys Martin and Greg Allen in center, Tyler Naquin in left, and Jordan Luplow in right.

Doesn’t exactly sound like a threat to contend for the World Series winner, does it?

To be fair, we like Luplow’s potential. He had 36 extra base hits and 39 walks in 88 games at AAA last season (829 OPS), and slugged .535 at AA the year before that. He could be an interesting guy to watch in Arizona.

And we actually think there could be potential in the Martin/Allen platoon. Martin had close to an 800 OPS (799) against right-handed pitching a year ago.

There has been talk to getting a third baseman, which would move Jose Ramirez to 2B, and potentially move Jason Kipnis to left, but neither he nor Naquin would be another solid, proven bat this lineup badly needs.

Once again, right now, the Indians have three of those: Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez, and Carlos Santana. Our opinion is you need six or seven to have an offense good enough to get you to October.

So, who is left on the open market, which is what the Indians’ front office will have to go to unless they decide to deal one of their starting pitchers.

Carlos Gonzalez has the highest OPS among attainable free agent hitters (Bryce Harper not included), but he hasn’t hit away from Coors Field since 2016.

Curtis Granderson is 38 years old and is at best a platoon player at this point in his career.

A. J. Pollock would be a great fit for Cleveland, but at 31 years old, he’s looking for a multi-year deal, and his price is probably out of the Tribe’s range, especially based on how they have been cutting the payroll this winter.

And it’s been reported he is signing with the Dodgers.

Adam Jones, who will play at 34 years old this upcoming season, has been linked to the Indians since last summer. Jones is coming off his worst season since he became a regular, and may be a candidate for a rebound season. However, his low career walk rate doesn’t hold much hope for that.

You also have Mike Moustakas, who could be signed and move Kipnis to the outfield, or Marwin Gonzalez, a multi-positional player who is looking to cash in his last two seasons. He took a big dip in ’18 though, looking more like the player he was earlier in his career.

Hopefully, the Cleveland front office is looking at Jones and/or Moustakas. They need to lengthen their lineup badly, and that duo could do that and at a seemingly reasonable price.

We would like Luplow and say, Jake Bauers, to make the leap and become solid everyday players. But you can’t depend on that when your goals are beyond winning the division, which with the top line talent the Indians have, should be the goal.

The fan base is becoming impatient, and that doesn’t help sell tickets.

Bigger Market For Kluber Or Carrasco?

When baseball’s GM meetings took place a week ago, the rumors started that the Cleveland Indians were willing to move some of their veterans, excluding MVP candidates Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez.

Then came word the Tribe was talking to the Yankees about starting pitchers Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco in a big time trade.

That got us thinking…who would the fans rather see moved, and more importantly, who might bring the haul if they were moved.

Certainly, Kluber has had the more accomplished career. He’s a two time Cy Young Award winner, has finished in the top three in the voting four times, and is coming off his first 20 win season.

Carrasco has been one of the sports’ best starting pitchers since 2015, winning 60 games over the past four seasons, with an ERA under 4.00 each season. He has fanned 200 or more hitters in three of those seasons.

However, Kluber is older, he’ll be 33 on April 10th, and has more miles on his arm, having thrown 200 or more innings in each of the last five seasons. It also appears to many people that his arm slot became lower as the season went on in 2018. Kluber has the longer contract, which would give potential targets cost certainty for the next three seasons.

But the deal is for big dollars, he will earn $17 million in 2019, $17.5 million in 2020, and $18 million in 2021. Those last two years are at a team option.

Carrasco is signed for the 2019 season with a club option for 2020, at a deal that is far below what his performance has merited. He is making slightly over $7 million for ’19, and has a club option for $9.5 million for 2020.

Based on this information, Carrasco might bring back more in a trade than the Indians’ ace. The lure of getting a top notch starting pitcher at below market dollars could bring a huge return from other teams.

The market would seem to be contending teams for Kluber, while Carrasco could interest teams that are building for a playoff run in 2019.

Regardless, teams that would be a good match for the Indians would be organizations that have a very good farm system, particularly with major league ready talent.

A perusal of the top farm systems in the sport show several teams that would be interested in adding a top of the rotation starting pitcher. Those teams would be the Braves, Rays, Phillies, Yankees, A’s, and Dodgers. The Tribe wants to get younger on the field and would likely be looking for a young, controllable pitcher as well.

The Indians are able to consider such a move because of the depth of the starting rotation. Let’s say Carrasco is moved. The rotation would still be comprised of Kluber, Trevor Bauer, Mike Clevinger, and Shane Bieber.

The fifth spot would be between Adam Plutko and either a decent veteran signed in free agency, or somebody obtained in the deal for Carrasco.

Not many teams have that kind of rotation depth.

By the way, we like the minor trade the Tribe made yesterday getting OF Jordan Luplow from Pittsburgh for utility man Erik Gonzalez.

As we have said for years, we don’t believe Gonzalez will ever be a productive regular because of his lack of strike zone judgment. His career strikeout to walk ratio is 79:9.

Luplow has hit .300 in AAA with a 857 OPS at that level, and is solid defensively. That resume would put him in line to start in 2019 based on who the Indians have right now.

We are sure there will be more to come.