Tag: johnathan rodriguez

Guardians Seem To Have Changed Philosophy On Hitting

About 10 years ago, the Cleveland Guardians developed a philosophy about hitting. The theory was it was easier to teach a good contact hitter to hit for power than it was to instruct a power hitter to make more contact. 

The prime examples were Jose Ramirez, who hit a grand total of 13 home runs in the minor leagues (216 in the majors) and Francisco Lindor, who’s high in the minor leagues was 11 dingers, and by his second full year in the bigs, belted 33.

Kyle Manzardo, who came in the Aaron Civale deal, also fits this profile. He struck out in 18% of his plate appearances last season and hit 17 homers. 

As everyone is aware by now, the Guardians were last in the major leagues in home runs in 2023, so what moves they have made have involved getting power, but they are getting players with high strikeout rates and low walk rates. 

Why do we focus on this? Because generally, those players can be pitched to, meaning pitchers aren’t dumb and if they realize they can retire a hitter without throwing him a strike, then they probably won’t. 

Not to pick on Amed Rosario, but how many times did we watch him strikeout without the pitcher throwing a ball in the strike zone? We realize the game has changed (not all changes are for the good) and hitters sell out to hit more home runs, but sometimes you can score without getting a hit. Can’t do that with a strikeout.

It’s not impossible for a hitter to succeed with that profile, but it isn’t the norm.

For example, Oscar Gonzalez struck out almost six times as much as he walked in the minor leagues. His first year in the bigs, he hit .296 with 11 homers, but he did fan 75 times with just 15 walks. 

His next year? He hit .214 with two round-trippers and struck nine times more than he walked (46:5). It will be interesting to see how the Yankees will handle him.

This off-season, the Guardians elevated Johnathan Rodriguez to the 40 man roster. He has hit 55 home runs the past two minor league seasons, including 29 last season at the AA and AAA levels. He did strike out in 29% of his plate appearance last season in the minors. That’s the bad news. 

The good news is his walk rate was the highest of his minor league career. Perhaps that’s a good sign.

The same is true with Estevan Florial, acquired from the Yankees the day after Christmas. Florial hit 28 dingers at AAA last season with a career high 66 walks. He did strikeout in 30% of his plate appearances in the minors a year ago. 

The Guardians do a lot of touting of Gabriel Arias, because he has a very strong exit velocity when he hits the ball. However, that’s the problem. He whiffed in 32.8% of his at bats for the Cleveland a year ago. 

In addition to being last in the majors in home runs last season, the Guardians also struck out the least. However, it is possible hit for power and not whiff excessively. 

Of the top ten in the lowest number of strikeouts last year, five teams made the playoffs, including the Braves, who led the majors in home runs with 307, and Houston, who were fifth in the bigs in runs scored. 

We have our doubts that the new power with high strikeout rates will work for the Guardians. We think they should focus on getting more men on base, a higher on-base percentage. 

Of the teams with the 10 worst OBP in the sport in 2023, none made the playoffs. Maybe there is a correlation there.

Guardians Need To Score More, Getting Proven Hitters Would Help.

We have started to read various things about what the Cleveland Guardians do for next season. We believe the front office has their ideas of how to get the Guards back in the playoffs next year, and make no mistake, that should be the goal.

This is not a rebuilding season. The Guardians won 92 games a year ago with the youngest roster in the sport. Next year will mark 76 seasons since the franchise has won a world title, and the team’s best player will enter the campaign at 31-years-old.

Offensively, Cleveland has to improve greatly. They rank 27th in all of baseball in runs scored, and that is simply not good enough. To us, barring trades, they have five players who should be fixtures in the lineup: Bo Naylor, Josh Naylor, Jose Ramirez, Steven Kwan, and Andres Gimenez.

So, four spots are open and at least two of them have to be filled by solid hitters. And it cannot be guys who they “hope” can be contributors at the plate, they need proven sticks.

And that’s the challenge for the front office.

It would seem Kyle Manzardo, who came over from Tampa at the trade deadline for Aaron Civale, will come to spring training with a job to lose. He hit .256 at Columbus (936 OPS) after coming to the organization, but overall hit .237/.337/464/802 at AAA in 2023.

Manzardo is highly regarded, but cannot be included as a “for sure” in 2024. If he struggles mightily in the spring, we would anticipate he will open the year in the minors.

Nor should anyone whose AAA numbers include OPS under 750 be counted on to be big league regulars. Johnathan Rodriguez had a very good season at the AA and AAA levels this year, hitting .286/.368/.529/897, but has a lot of swing and miss in his game, with 163 whiffs against 59 walks.

Jhonkensy Noel is another who we hear about because he hit 27 home runs and the Guardians need power. However, he hit .220/.303/.420/723 at Columbus. He might hit 20 homers at the big league level if given a chance. He will also make a lot of outs.

What about George Valera, who has been part of the organization’s top prospects for a while now? He hit .211/.343/.375/718 this season.

By contrast, here’s what Bo Naylor did in Columbus before being called up: .254/.393/.498/890.

It is difficult to imagine players doing better in the majors initially than they did in the high minors. We aren’t saying it’s impossible, but…

You also can’t (and the organization won’t) count on young players like Juan Brito and Chase DeLauter, both of whom we have high hopes for.

Brito, a 21-year-old switch-hitter, batted .271/.377/.434/811 across three levels in the minors this season, but he’s had only 20 plate appearances at AAA to date.

DeLauter, last season’s first round pick, is a left-handed hitter, and he only has 28 plate appearances at the AA level. He shows signs of having an elite hit tool, going .355/.417/.528/945 this year in the minors.

Both of these players might be able to contribute at the end of next year, but certainly not at the beginning of the season.

So, the front office is going to have to look for gems in other organizations or free agents who might be interested in one or two year deals. A few years ago, we saw D.J. LeMahieu available after Christmas and suggested Cleveland take a look at him. He posted a 893 OPS that season with the Yankees.

The point is there might be a bargain out there after the initial push, that is, of course assuming the Guardians won’t be spending big cash.

It won’t be easy for Chris Antonetti and Mike Chernoff. It shouldn’t be. But the “wishing and hoping” method shouldn’t be an option either.

No matter what, they have to figure out how to score more runs.