Understand Seeing Prospects, But Guards Need A Proven Stick

The Cleveland Guardians are usually very tightlipped when it comes to talking about making changes to their roster, so when in an interview Chris Antonetti talked about balancing giving the current inexperienced players on the roster a shot with going out and bringing veteran players in, let’s hope that is just front office speak.

In 2025, the Guards ranked 28th in all of Major League Baseball in runs scored, 29th in OPS, on base percentage and slugging percentage. It really is kind of a miracle they made the playoffs with that bad of an offense.

Cleveland has some prospects that are on the cusp of helping the big-league team. We saw many of them in September and in the Wild Card Series. We are talking about guys like Chase DeLauter, George Valera, C.J. Kayfus, and Juan Brito has had some solid years in AAA and deserves a look.

However, outside of Kayfus, availability has been a big problem for those guys, and as we always say, the job of the front office should be to have a backup plan. What happens if those young players get hurt or aren’t ready to handle big league pitching?

We know what the alternative is for that, and quite frankly, it’s not pretty. Do the Guardians really feel like they can contend giving extensive at bats to players like Jhonkensy Noel (480 OPS in ’25), Nolan Jones (600 last year), or Johnathan Rodriguez (career 586 OPS)?

Again, we remind you with those guys and we can add in Daniel Schneemann’s 636 OPS and Gabriel Arias’ 638 figure, Steven Vogt’s squad had one of the worst offenses in the game.

That’s why the front office needs to add someone with a track record of offensive production. If DeLauter and one of the other prospects wind up being solid bats as rookies, then you have added depth and also you have the ability to protect them when they are in tough stretches at the plate, which most rookies go through.

In particular, the Guards could use a right-handed hitter with some pop and at least two hitters who can get on base. Arias led the team in homers by a right-handed hitter in 2025 with 11. As a comparison, their chief division rivals, the Tigers had four players that exceeded that total.

Of the four young players listed previously, Brito is a switch-hitter and the other three hit from the left side. Even if they all emerge, the Guards need a solid right-handed hitter.

As for getting on base, Jose Ramirez (of course) had a .360 OBP last season and the next highest was Steven Kwan at .330. The only other hitters over .300 were Kyle Manzardo (.313) and Carlos Santana, who was released in late August and is 39 years old.

That’s a lot of hitters making a lot of outs.

And we would prefer the organization to not take flyers on hitters who have declined over the past few seasons with the hope they can have a renaissance. That rarely works either.

The farm system has some depth, move some prospects to get a hitter who was productive last year. That’s what is needed.

We know there are a lot of people out there who put blind faith in anyone who has ever had a decent month or two in the minor leagues. We still go with the axiom that prospects are suspects until proven otherwise.

Much Like The Entire Month, The Post-Season Clincher Was Unreal.

Somehow, it was fitting that the Cleveland Guardians clinched a playoff spot last night on a hit batsman with the bases loaded.

When C.J. Kayfus got hit with a Robert Garcia pitch, the party was on, but probably somewhat muted because a win tomorrow means Steven Vogt’s crew will open the Wild Card Series at home on Tuesday.

The post-season clinching game was kind of a microcosm of the entire year. Vogt put Johnathan Rodriguez in the cleanup spot in the lineup, replacing David Fry. We said on social media that it was an odd choice, seeing the Rodriguez was only called up because of the Fry injury, and he had only amassed 70 plate appearances with the big club all year.

But there he was in the bottom of the first, hitting a two-run homer to give Cleveland the lead. And then, Rodriguez started the winning rally, drawing a two out walk.

Kyle Manzardo, who didn’t play against left-handed pitching most of the year, then blooped one into left field against the southpaw Garcia, sending pinch-runner Petey Halpin to third.

Texas intentionally walked Gabriel Arias, kind of an odd move with Arias’ swing and miss tendencies, to load the bases.

By the way, it was also the first time Garcia hit a batter the entire season.

Joey Cantillo, who started the season in the bullpen, and had two stints in the minor leagues during the season, was the starting pitcher in the game. He also was the starter on September 3rd, an 8-1 win over the Red Sox that started this stretch.

And of course, the bullpen played a big role with Hunter Gaddis getting four outs and Cade Smith getting five. They were the anchors of the relief corps most of the season, and the skipper leaned on them heavily.

Of course. There was something unexpected about the entire run the Guardians went on after losing their first two games in September. Winning 19 of 24 games is incredible in itself, especially when the Guards were pretty much a .500 team heading into that stretch.

Make no mistake, the run was accomplished with incredible pitching. Cleveland has allowed just 67 runs in the month, their previous low in a month in 2025 was the 101 allowed in June. That’s an unbelievable turnaround.

They won seven games where they scored three runs of less during the streak. That’s insane.

They got huge hits during the run from Kayfus, whose 2-run homer turned a 2-1 Kansas City lead into a 3-2 Cleveland win on September 11th.

Another rookie, George Valera, belted a big homer last Wednesday to get the Guards going in a 5-1 win. And Jhonkensy Noel, hitting .152 on the season, homered off Tarik Skubal, on September 18th.

And of course, Rodriguez last night.

They can finish the job today with a win that would give the team their second consecutive division title and their 14th since the three division set up which started in 1994, and their 15th post-season spot in the same time frame.

To be honest, we have no idea how this happened considering the offense is still among the worst in the majors, but who cares. It’s fun just enjoying the winning.

The off-season seems to go quicker when the Guardians are in the playoffs.

Guardians’ Front Office Needs To Be Honest. With Themselves

The worst thing any business can do is lie to themselves. The world is constantly changing, and smart people learn to adapt and change. If you don’t it’s a matter of time before you get stuck in the mud and your competition passes you by.

Professional sports is no exception, and the front office of the Cleveland Guardians have a chance to reexamine their evaluation of certain players before the trade deadline this week. We hope they have not started this process today.

We trust that they haven’t, but we also hope they are taking an honest look at the current roster.

If they do, then they will see a position player roster made up of two all-star caliber players in Jose Ramirez and Steven Kwan, a player with some pop and promise in Kyle Manzardo, and seemingly a bunch of journeyman players.

Their job would be to figure if any of that latter group can become everyday players.

We think the two players who could do this would be Angel Martinez and we also believe Brayan Rocchio could do that as well.

We have said before that Martinez, a switch-hitter, has a concerning strikeout to walk ratio, which is currently at 71:13. In AAA, it was a much more manageable 85:35 and in AA it was 101:49. Perhaps he is giving too much credit to big league pitchers.

He’s also fourth on the team in extra base hits, behind Ramirez, Kwan, and Manzardo. If he can walk more often, he will be a solid everyday player.

As for Rocchio, we realize we are going out on a limb here. Last year, he had a 614 OPS and this year, it’s even worse at 559. We think the approach Rocchio has taken at the plate since returning to the big leagues can be sustainable, and that’s a 735 OPS.

And if he doesn’t work out, you have Angel Genao, who is hitting .272 at Akron and is one of the top 100 prospects in the sport.

Moreso, they need to take an honest look at players like Nolan Jones, Daniel Schneemann, and Johnathan Rodriguez.

Schneemann looks like a solid utility man. He can play 2B, 3B, and SS (serviceable, but he scares us) and the OF. He has a little pop too, with 14 HR in 489 plate appearances. But he’s not really a good hitter (679 OPS) and his on base percentage is around .300.

Jones’ fans still point to the 20 home runs he hit with Colorado in 2023. His critics point to his almost 600 plate appearances since with six long balls. We jokingly referred to him as Will Brennan who walks more.

Brennan’s issue is he’s a singles hitter who doesn’t walk, which makes him kind of a useless offensive player. But Jones doesn’t get on base enough to offset the lack of pop. He has just 15 extra base hits on the year. Rocchio has 14 in 115 less times at the dish.

Rodriguez has received the least chances of the trio with just 106 plate appearances over two years, but has just a .161 batting average, a 533 OPS and 33 whiffs. He hits the ball on the ground a lot, 68.3% of the time. It’s hard to get extra base hits doing that.

He’s been great at the AAA level, with a 925 OPS, 47 homers and a decent K/BB ratio. But he has to start hitting the ball on a line or in the air more often.

And we’ve already addressed the issue with Carlos Santana. He’s been an excellent player over the years for the Guardians, but right now, he’s blocking a lot of players, including Rodriguez.

We are sure the offices on the corner of Ontario and Carnegie are very busy this week. Hopefully, the folks still think a playoff spot is attainable this year.

Looking At Guardians’ Battles With Just Over Two Weeks Left

When spring training started for the Cleveland Guardians, there were a few position battles to watch, and the makeup of the starting rotation was unstable. With the exhibition slate about half over and the regular season starting in a little over two weeks, here is an update.

Second base. We think the front office was hoping rookie Juan Brito would take the spot, although others figured Gabriel Arias would get a good shot since he is out of options.

Brito has struggled to date, going 2 for 21 with seven strikeouts, but two homers. More than likely, we will go back to AAA to start the year. Most insiders think Arias will be the opening day starter, but he hasn’t set the world on fire, going 6 for 24 with just one walk.

Perhaps the guy who should get the gig is Tyler Freeman (8 for 19 with 3 doubles and a home run). We like Freeman, who has always hit in the minors, and last year played mostly in centerfield, and we will get to that later.

Our opinion? We think we know what Arias is. He has some pop in his bat but doesn’t make enough contact. Sometimes, the front office ignores evidence.

Rightfield/Outfield. Steven Kwan is the leftfielder. Now it gets complicated. Lane Thomas will be somewhere in the outfield on an everyday basis. The Guardians were no doubt hoping Chase DeLauter could be a factor, but injuries got in the way again.

Going into camp, the hope was rightfield would be a platoon of Will Brennan and Jhonkensy Noel. We aren’t a fan of the former because singles hitters who don’t walk are kind of useless.

And our concern about Noel is the swing and miss in his game, and he has fanned 10 times in 26 plate appearances this spring.

If Arias wins the 2B job, does Freeman become involved here as the platoon partner for Brennan? We think Freeman is a hitter (Bo Naylor is another) who didn’t mesh with Chris Valaika last season, and perhaps he is getting back to his natural swing/approach at the plate.

A long shot would be Johnathan Rodriguez, who had a cup of coffee with the big club last year. He is just 3 for 15 and a home run, but has walked seven times.

Starting rotation. Coming into camp, Tanner Bibee and newcomer Luis Ortiz were the only locks. Through three appearances in Arizona, Gavin Williams looks like he did as a rookie and seems to have sewn up a spot. Williams has fanned 16 in eight innings, allowing just five hits and a single run.

Ben Lively has had three solid starts and would seem to be the fourth starter. The hope was Triston McKenzie would claim the fifth spot but walked five batters in an outing and gave up seven hits in 3.2 innings yesterday. His WHIP is 2.21.

Who gets that spot? Joey Cantillo has been starting but has walked six hitters in six innings. On the other hand, Logan Allen has been strong, giving up just one run in 10.2 innings, striking out 10 and more importantly walking only two and only allowing one home run.

Rookie Doug Nikhazy is the sleeper, although we would expect him to open at Columbus. The southpaw has pitched seven innings allowing just one hit thus far. However, Allen has faced the more experienced hitters thus far.

The lack of minor league options though probably puts McKenzie on the roster anyway. Perhaps he’s used as a mop up option until he can find the strike zone.

The Guardians always seem to paint themselves in a corner with these players who have no options left. We would like to see them trust their judgment a little earlier in the process.

Guardians Hit Their First Rough Patch Of The Season

The Cleveland Guardians have hit their first rough patch of the season. Even though they won the series at Progressive Field against the lowly White Sox, starting with the last game of the Baltimore series, they have lost six of their last ten games.

They still have a six-game lead in the AL Central over Minnesota, but it would be nice to regain some momentum heading into the All-Star break, and the Guards look like a team that could really use the four days off.

Under Steven Vogt, the Guardians have been a team all year that has mixed and matched in terms of the starting lineup, looking for the best way to beat that day’s starting pitcher.

And it worked, as Cleveland was baseball’s surprise team.

However, the organization seems to be still in tryout camp mode, shuffling players from Columbus to Cleveland, appearing to search for players like a team floundering in the standings does.

The roster changes aren’t based on a rash of injuries either. The only Cleveland player currently on the injured list is Will Brennan. Since Steven Kwan went on the IL with his hamstring injury, we have seen Kyle Manzardo, Johnathan Rodriguez, Daniel Schneemann, Jhonkensy Noel, Jose Tena, and Angel Martinez getting at bats at the big-league level, all with varying success.

From here, it looks like what we feel is a weakness in the organization, the inability to make decisions on players.

Vogt uses these players at these positions on an everyday basis: 1B Josh Naylor, 2B Andres Gimenez, 3B Jose Ramirez, LF Steven Kwan. With David Fry’s injured elbow, he has become the DH most days, with Bo Naylor and Austin Hedges behind the plate.

Brayan Rocchio is the shortstop most of the time, but we have seen Schneemann there, as well as the organization’s hope, Gabriel Arias, despite Rocchio’s defensive prowess at the games most important defensive spot.

Tyler Freeman did a solid job defensively in centerfield most of the year and it was revealed yesterday he is battling a wrist problem, and while he hasn’t hit like we thought, he’s held his own. His 653 OPS is better than Rocchio’s and comparable to Gimenez.

We get the front office is probably trying to take a look at as many players as they can before the trading deadline at the end of the month, but when the team is in a bit of a downturn, that should be secondary.

As for Arias, at what point is the organization going to realize he just isn’t a good hitter right now? He went 6 for 11 vs. the Orioles, part of a stretch where he went 8 for 19. Since then? 0 for 12 with six strikeouts.

The bullpen is also starting to leak some oil, with the lack of innings from the starting rotation perhaps starting to take its toll, especially with some of the younger arms.

Veteran Scott Barlow has emerged as the most reliable arm out of the ‘pen of late, allowing just two earned runs since June 1st. Cleveland still has four of the top 11 pitchers in the American League in terms of appearances, and that’s concerning.

Don’t get us wrong, every team in the major leagues goes through slumps or downturns, and the Guards are no exception. Again, we are sure Vogt, and the front office are hoping the club rights itself before the Mid-Summer Classic in Texas next week.

And they need to address the starting pitching…

Can Guards Upgrade The Offense More?

The Cleveland Guardians finished 12th in the American League in runs scored a year ago, and so far this season have improved that department greatly.

Over a quarter of the 2024 season has been played, and right now, the Guards are second in the AL in runs.

A year ago, they ranked 12th team OPS, 10th in on base percentage and 14th (second to last) in slugging percentage. To date in ’24, they are 5th in OPS, 6th in on base average, and 7th in slugging percentage.

They famously hit the fewest home runs in the league a year ago, and currently are 6th in the AL.

Everything is much improved.

Could it be improved even more? We hope the improvement doesn’t cause president Chris Antonetti and GM Mike Chernoff to think the offense couldn’t get better, because with the Guardians’ pitching staff, which ranks 4th in the league in ERA, and particularly the bullpen, which has been dominant, it could raise Steven Vogt’s team even more.

And it is pretty clear where Cleveland can get more production is in the outfield, where two of the most struggling players play.

They made maybe the first move yesterday calling up Johnathan Rodriguez from Columbus and designating Ramon Laureano for assignment.

Rodriguez was hitting well at AAA with an 838 OPS (.276 batting average) with a 25.4% K rate at Columbus, hitting 7 homers and drawing 29 walks. He’s a right-handed hitter.

Rodriguez could be a possible upgrade to the outfield offense.

We say possible because as hot as Kyle Manzardo was in the minors this season, he has gone just 5 for 31 with the big club since his promotion with 10 strikeouts in 33 plate appearances. (NOTE: He struck out in his first five big league at bats).

Laureano really struggled to contribute. He was signed in the off-season because he had a decent track record hitting lefties but had a 518 OPS (.177 batting average with one home run).

And over the last month, he is just 2 for 25 with 15 strikeouts in 27 plate appearances. He is a good outfielder with a great arm and the ability to play CF, but it was getting difficult for the organization to find him at bats.

The other outfielder having a tough go is Estevan Florial.

Florial has contributed some huge hits this season, a pinch-hit homer against the Yankees and a three-run blast to tie up a game in Houston, but other than those moments, he has struggled mightily.

He has fanned in 40 of his 103 plate appearances, a whopping 38.8% rate. He has a 596 OPS vs. right-handers (to his credit, he is 4 for 11 vs. southpaws), and over the last month, he is batting just .153 with 26 whiffs in 64 times at the dish (40.6%).

The best left-handed bat in the state capital is Daniel Schneemann, an infielder who has started getting playing time in LF and RF. Should we read into that?

He has come out of nowhere the last two seasons (he batted .205 at Akron in 2022) and this season is hitting .310 with a 1041 OPS. He’s belted 8 round trippers and has walked a team high 35 times.

Schneemann also provides more versatility because he can play both infield and outfield.

Is the organization thinking they can improve the offense more? We know they are always looking for ways to improve the ballclub. The first move has been made, is another one to follow?

Some Struggles Among The Guardians’ Fast Start

There is no question the Cleveland Guardians have been one of the more surprising teams in Major League Baseball, jumping out to a 23-13 record and first place in the so far surprisingly strong AL Central.

The much-maligned division currently has four teams over the .500 mark.

That said, there have been some disappointing starts for a few of the Guardians’ players thus far. It’s still early and we don’t mean to dwell on the negative when the team is playing so well, but here are players we would like to see get going.

Bo Naylor had a strong second half last year, hitting .252 with 10 home runs and an 893 OPS, but has struggled at the plate and defensively so far in 2024. The left-handed hitter has just a 558 OPS and leads the team in strikeouts with 38 in 103 plate appearances.

His whiff rate is at 37% right now, compared to 23% last season and while he is among the team leaders in taking walks, his walk rate has dropped from last season.

Defensively, he already has four passed balls (he had 5 last season) and there have been several others where the pitcher was charged with a wild pitch, and the Guardians are tied for the AL high in that category, and we felt Naylor could have done a better job blocking it.

Remember, the Guardians as an organization value defense first behind the plate.

We aren’t saying Naylor should be in danger of losing his job, but we better contact and better defense should be the goal going forward.

Ramon Laureano was resigned in the off-season because he could can play CF and RF and because of his success against southpaws, a career 777 OPS against lefties. However, let’s not forget he was designated for assignment by the lowly A’s, where he hit .213 with a 645 OPS.

To date, he is 5 for 30 vs. left-handed pitching with 13 strikeouts and no walks in 32 plate appearances. Overall, he is hitting .150 with 27 whiffs, 7 walks, and a single home run. Could Johnathan Rodriguez, hitting .280 with an 867 OPS, be poised to take his at bats?

We are sure the organization doesn’t want to bring up Rodriguez and platoon him, and that might be the thing saving Laureano right now.

We knew one of the three rookie starting pitchers the Guardians had last season would have struggles, and Logan Allen is the one having the most troubles. Gavin Williams is still sidelined and while Tanner Bibee hasn’t been dominant, he does have a 4.46 ERA.

Allen had a solid second start of the season, going 6.2 shutout innings against Seattle, but other than that start, he’s pitched to a 7.71 ERA in 32.2 frames. He has a solid strikeout to walk ratio (33K:14 BB) but has allowing 47 hits, including nine home runs.

And to be fair, Allen didn’t pitch poorly in Houston, where bad defense did him in.

The problem is the lack of alternatives right now until Williams returns. Xzavion Curry gave Cleveland a solid start in his lone appearance for the big club, but currently has a 6.86 ERA at Columbus.

And add in the uncertainty (at least in our mind) every time Carlos Carrasco starts, and it’s clear the Guardians need Allen to get back to the guy who had a 3.81 ERA and gave up a hit an inning a year ago.

The Guardians are rapidly approaching the quarter pole of the season, but they need to see progress from this trio going forward.

Players Guardians Wanted To Look At Haven’t Shown Much To Date

During the winter and even right before spring training, the message from the Cleveland Guardians’ management was the reason they didn’t sign any veteran hitters was they wanted to look at the organization’s young talent, particularly in the outfield.

Yes, we know it is spring training, and not only that, it’s early in spring training, but it would not nice if a few of these prospects were showing something in the exhibition games.

You have to look at numbers during spring training games with a jaundiced eye. Observers need to be mindful of what pitchers the hitters are facing. Are they big league arms or guys who pitched in AA last year, and have a slim chance of making the squad that comes up north?

And again, it is still early. One of these hitters could go on a tear starting today and play their way onto the 26-man roster and perhaps into the starting lineup opening day in Oakland.

Looking at those young outfielders, none have flashed to date. Estevan Florial, acquired from the Yankees and mentioned more than a few times by Steven Vogt, is off to a miserable start, going just 1 for 13 with 8 strikeouts. He has walked twice.

Johnathan Rodriguez, who played at both AA and AAA last season, belting 29 home runs in total, has started 3 for 15 with one walk and has fanned four times. He has no extra base hits to date.

Jhonkensy Noel, kind of an all or nothing slugger who hit 27 dingers at Columbus in ’23, is 3 for 15 with seven punchouts. He does have two doubles however.

And rule five addition Deyvison De Los Santos, who has to be offered back to Arizona if he does not make the big-league roster, has started 3 for 15, but has only struck out three times.

Our favorite to win the shortstop job, Brayan Rocchio, coming off an excellent winter league season, is 1 for 12 with a walk, but has not struck out. His main competition, Gabriel Arias, who finished the year as the regular, is 3 for 11 and a walk, but has fanned four times, which is a problem for him.

The most impressive young players to date are three top 10 prospects, of which two have little chance to make the team.

The latter duo would be INF Angel Martinez, who has banged out 8 hits in 14 at bats with a walk and two strikeouts. The switch-hitter who will likely play at AAA this year has also pounded two doubles and two homers.

The other is OF Chase DeLauter, who has gone 4 for 8 with a HR in the big league games. The lefty hitter is the Guardians’ 2022 first round pick and will probably start the season at AA Akron.

The last of this trio should have a good shot to make the team, 1B/DH Kyle Manzardo. The left-handed hitter is 4 for 9 with two walks (three whiffs) and a double thus far. Manzardo spent last year at AAA, hitting 17 homers.

Add to this the Guardians traded a big-league starting pitcher to get him, and as we have said before, unless he’s overmatched in camp, he should be on the Opening Day roster.

Again, it’s early. But as the saying goes, you only have one chance to make a first impression. Hopefully, these prospects can get it going sooner than later.

What Is Plan B To Help Guardians Score Runs?

The first clue came at Guardians’ Fest when owner Paul Dolan said the reason for not signing any free agent outfielders is they wanted to give the young players in the farm system a chance.

Then in the past few days, manager Steven Vogt and president Chris Antonetti mentioned the same thing.

To us, this is a pretty risky plan especially if the organization has designs on making the playoffs. Remember, this shouldn’t be a “rebuild”, they won the division title just two years ago with the youngest roster in the sport.

It is universally known that the Guardians have a problem scoring runs, ranking 12th in the American League a year ago. We believe to have a solid major league lineup, a team needs to have six, maybe even seven solid bats in the batting order.

In our opinion, right now, the Guards have four: Jose Ramirez of course, Josh Naylor, Steven Kwan, and Andres Gimenez. Bo Naylor showed promise a year ago, but he has less than 250 big league at bats, and can’t be counted as of yet.

And we are pressing the definition of “solid” with Kwan (710 OPS) and Gimenez (712 OPS), each would be the 6th or 7th best hitters on very good hitting teams.

The front office could have signed a veteran free agent to a one-year contract (there are no such things as bad one-year deals) to add a proven stick to the order. Players like J.D. Martinez (career 874 OPS) and Tommy Pham (786 OPS) are still on the market.

Cleveland acquired Estevan Florial from New York over the winter and he had a big year in AAA last season and was a former top 100 prospect. George Valera has also been on this list, but he’s never been in the big leagues and has battled injuries the last two seasons.

Otherwise, the candidates the team is depending aren’t on the list of the top prospects in the game, nor are they on the Guardians’ top 10 list, at least among the outfielders.

So, our question is this: What is Plan B if none of the young players the brass is talking about come through in 2024?

In 2022, Will Brennan slashed 371/479/850 in the minor leagues, at both the AA and AAA levels. Last year, in the big leagues, Brennan had a 655 OPS, with both the on base and pop he showed in the minors in ’22 having disappeared.

This isn’t to say Brennan is a bust, for right now, we simply will call it growing pains, but the fact remains he didn’t provide much offense for the Guardians last season.

In three seasons at AAA, Florial has slashed 358/490/848, similar numbers to Brennan. And although he has only 134 plate appearances in the big leagues, he has a 609 OPS, striking out 41 times.

Another hopeful is Johnathan Rodriguez, who in 47 games at Columbus last season was outstanding 376/560/936. With 476 plate appearances in AA, his numbers are 334/497/831. Solid, but not overwhelming.

Jhonkensy Noel, a minor league slugger, is also in the mix, but in a full season at Columbus last year put up these numbers: 303/420/723.

Kyle Manzardo is a Guardians’ top 10 prospect, and it seems like the organization wants him to start in AAA. Perhaps, it’s because he’s not already on the 40-man roster. In AAA last season, he had an 802 OPS.

And no, we don’t consider a player with a 676 OPS a year ago to be a solid bat. We are talking about Ramon Laureano, claimed on waivers from Oakland last season in August. His last season with an OPS over 750 was 2021.

Could things fall into place and Brennan bounces back, Bo Naylor continues to hit like he did in the second half last season, and Brayan Rocchio hits like he has in winter ball? Of course, and if that happens, the offensive woes could be solved.

We like having a backup plan, though. Of course, that costs money. Hence the problem for the front office.

Guardians Seem To Have Changed Philosophy On Hitting

About 10 years ago, the Cleveland Guardians developed a philosophy about hitting. The theory was it was easier to teach a good contact hitter to hit for power than it was to instruct a power hitter to make more contact.

The prime examples were Jose Ramirez, who hit a grand total of 13 home runs in the minor leagues (216 in the majors) and Francisco Lindor, who’s high in the minor leagues was 11 dingers, and by his second full year in the bigs, belted 33.

Kyle Manzardo, who came in the Aaron Civale deal, also fits this profile. He struck out in 18% of his plate appearances last season and hit 17 homers.

As everyone is aware by now, the Guardians were last in the major leagues in home runs in 2023, so what moves they have made have involved getting power, but they are getting players with high strikeout rates and low walk rates.

Why do we focus on this? Because generally, those players can be pitched to, meaning pitchers aren’t dumb and if they realize they can retire a hitter without throwing him a strike, then they probably won’t.

Not to pick on Amed Rosario, but how many times did we watch him strikeout without the pitcher throwing a ball in the strike zone? We realize the game has changed (not all changes are for the good) and hitters sell out to hit more home runs, but sometimes you can score without getting a hit. Can’t do that with a strikeout.

It’s not impossible for a hitter to succeed with that profile, but it isn’t the norm.

For example, Oscar Gonzalez struck out almost six times as much as he walked in the minor leagues. His first year in the bigs, he hit .296 with 11 homers, but he did fan 75 times with just 15 walks.

His next year? He hit .214 with two round-trippers and struck nine times more than he walked (46:5). It will be interesting to see how the Yankees will handle him.

This off-season, the Guardians elevated Johnathan Rodriguez to the 40 man roster. He has hit 55 home runs the past two minor league seasons, including 29 last season at the AA and AAA levels. He did strike out in 29% of his plate appearance last season in the minors. That’s the bad news.

The good news is his walk rate was the highest of his minor league career. Perhaps that’s a good sign.

The same is true with Estevan Florial, acquired from the Yankees the day after Christmas. Florial hit 28 dingers at AAA last season with a career high 66 walks. He did strikeout in 30% of his plate appearances in the minors a year ago.

The Guardians do a lot of touting of Gabriel Arias, because he has a very strong exit velocity when he hits the ball. However, that’s the problem. He whiffed in 32.8% of his at bats for the Cleveland a year ago.

In addition to being last in the majors in home runs last season, the Guardians also struck out the least. However, it is possible hit for power and not whiff excessively.

Of the top ten in the lowest number of strikeouts last year, five teams made the playoffs, including the Braves, who led the majors in home runs with 307, and Houston, who were fifth in the bigs in runs scored.

We have our doubts that the new power with high strikeout rates will work for the Guardians. We think they should focus on getting more men on base, a higher on-base percentage.

Of the teams with the 10 worst OBP in the sport in 2023, none made the playoffs. Maybe there is a correlation there.