Tag: joey votto

How Tribe Can Keep Lindor And Still Win

We have maintained for awhile now that the Cleveland Indians should most definitely get a long term contract done with Francisco Lindor, and the money shouldn’t be an object.

We understand it will take a major financial commitment to keep the All Star shortstop, with the Tribe having to pay him over $30 million per year.

One of the arguments we hear against this is teams can’t devote a large percentage of their payroll to one player and remain competitive, particularly if they are not a large market franchise.

We feel there are exceptions to every “rule”, and Lindor should be that exception.

Besides, it can done if your front office is smart, and you continue to develop your farm system.

Two contracts are always brought up in this regard.

The first is Joey Votto’s 10-year, $225 million deal with the Reds, signed in 2013.  Votto was entering his 29-year-old season that year, and has given Cincinnati five very good to excellent years to this point, although at 35, he is showing signs of age this year.

Cincinnati hasn’t been over .500 since ’13, but that is hardly Votto’s fault.

You could make a very good and valid point, that the problem was the organization having a $50 million commitment to 32-year-old Brandon Phillips, and giving $56 million to Homer Bailey, who was injured and terrible over the next five seasons.

Those are mistakes you cannot mistake if you want to win.

Their farm system has ranked between 11th and 14th (MinorLeagueBall.com ranking) since the contract was signed, and the only young position player making an impact was catcher Devon Mesoraco.  All the other regulars were 26-32.

Their top prospect was Billy Hamilton, who flamed out, but by 2016, they added Eugenio Suarez (from the Tigers in a trade) and Tucker Barnhart.  And they didn’t add a solid pitching prospect until they added Luis Castillo in a deal with the Marlins in 2017.

Another example pointed out is look at the Angels with Mike Trout, who has unfortunately made the post-season once in his eight years with Los Angeles.

Of course, the Angels have the Albert Pujols albatross contract, but they’ve made some questionable big money signings too.

They paid Ricky Nolasco $12 million for the two seasons, and in 2018, gave Zack Cozart, who had one good season in his career, a three year, $38 million deal.

If you are going to pay a superstar big money, you can’t pay mediocre players substantial bucks, or it does hamstring your franchise.

The Angels’ farm system is on the rise, thanks to Jo Adell, but they ranked between 28th and 30th from 2015 to 2017, before moving up to 20th last season.

As for the Indians, the farm system has ranked 21st in 2015, then 13th in ’16, 10th in ’17, and 15th last season.  By most accounts, following the deadline deal which brought Logan Allen, along with the development of players in the low minors, Cleveland has a top ten system.

This is important because it keeps bringing low cost talent on to the big league roster.  And if those players can make a solid contribution, like Aaron Civale and Oscar Mercado, it allows you to keep a high priced player like Lindor.

As for not getting involved with bad contracts, Jason Kipnis’ deal is over after this season (Cleveland will not pick up the option), and Corey Kluber’s and Carlos Santana’s end after 2021.

The only “star” player who will be eligible for arbitration by then is Mike Clevinger.

This gives the Indians plenty of payroll flexibility providing they don’t go out and overspend on a young player or potential free agent.  History says they will not do that, they have proven to be very smart is this regard.

But you can’t ignore player development and this includes trading solid prospects for borderline players in a pennant race.

The blueprint is there to keep Lindor and still be a competitive franchise while paying him big money.  It’s not impossible, you just have to be very prudent.

MW

Tribe Bullpen Not Saving

Last night, the Cleveland Indians’ bullpen had another bad game, bringing the problem to the forefront once again.

Leading 6-5 with two outs in the eighth inning, Joe Smith served up a homer to Chad Tracy, now hitting .145 on the season, on an 0-2 pitch.  The next inning, Vinnie Pestano gave up a game winning gopher ball to Anthony Rendon, his first big league circuit shot.

Rendon is a top prospect, but his blast followed miscommunication between Nick Swisher and Jason Kipnis, which resulted in his foul pop up dropping harmlessly to the ground.  However, that doesn’t excuse Pestano serving up a meatball to the rookie.

The Tribe bullpen, considered a strength coming into the season, is leaking oil.  Outside of Scott Barnes’ three inning save against the Red Sox in a 12-3 blowout on May 23rd, the last time an Indians’ reliever picked up a save was over a month ago, on May 12th vs. Detroit, when Cody Allen came in and recorded the last out in an extra inning win.

That was Mother’s Day.  Today is Father’s Day.  The only save recorded between the two days honoring our parents was a “rule” one, because Barnes’ went three innings.

Now, losing 16 of 20 contests drastically lowers your chances of getting saves.  They don’t award them in losing efforts.  But, there were several games in the losing skein that the bullpen could have changed the outcome.

Most famously, there were the two games in Boston where Terry Francona’s squad were winning late.

On May 25th, Cleveland was leading 4-3 in the eighth inning, when Pestano allowed four runs to the Boston, the last two on a another pop up that dropped in with Asdrubal Cabrera trying to catch it.

The very next day, Chris Perez blew a great start by Corey Kluber in the ninth, turning what looked to be a 5-2 win into a 6-5 defeat.

On Memorial Day, which was the day after Perez’ struggles, Nick Hagadone came into a 2-2 games and promptly allowed a two run shot by Joey Votto to give Cincinnati a lead it never relinquished.

Hagadone was victimized again early this week against Texas, when he allowed another tie breaking HR, this one to Lance Berkman.

Perhaps we should have seen this coming.  The last game before the Indians entered the losing period, the relief corps allowed game tying home runs in three consecutive innings against Seattle in a game the Tribe would up winning 10-8.  The culprits were Pestano, Perez, and Smith, who earned the win when Yan Gomes belted a three run dinger in the 10th inning.

All in all, Cleveland relievers are last in the league in saves, with just nine on the season.  To show that saves aren’t the be all, end all for a team, the next two lowest bullpens are Boston (13) and Detroit (14), both of whom reside in first place in their respective divisions.

However, the Tigers have the second best ERA in the American League, which a great starting rotation, and the Red Sox are seventh.  The Indians are 13th in that category.

The problem has arisen in two areas:  The left-handers (primarily Hagadone and Rich Hill) have been terrible, and the late inning guys, most notably Pestano and Perez have allowed a lot of long balls (a combined eight in 34-2/3 innings).

Smith has a 1.48 ERA, allowing just four runs for the season, but two of them were game tying home runs.

The middle relievers (Matt Albers, Bryan Shaw, Allen, and even rookie Matt Langwell) have been solid.

Perhaps it is time to use them in later game situations.

The Indians have not had a lot of save chances so far in 2013, the problem is, when they have had them, they haven’t done the job.  This has to make Francona wonder why he wanted to manage again.

MW