Tag: joey gallo

The Diminishing Skill Of Getting On Base

When the famed Baseball Abstract came out in the 1980’s, Bill James introduced the concept of OPS, writing that a player was a great offensive player if he could get on base 35% of the time while maintaining a .450 slugging percentage.

The reasoning was the player had the ability to get on base frequently and the slugging percentage measured how the player could advance runners, getting extra base hits, which is measured by slugging.

That made an 800 OPS the gold standard for hitters. That number started to be regarded as the measure of offensive success, but that led to younger baseball analysts thinking players with a .300 on base percentage and .500 slugging percentage were great hitters.

Those players generally tend to be guys who swing for the fences in most at bats, with high strikeout, low walk rates (hence the low on base percentage). Joey Gallo is the poster boy for us, with people telling us Gallo was an offensive force, piling up 800 OPS figures with batting averages of .209 (.333 OBP, 2017) and .206 (.312 OBP, 2018).

We know it is not fashionable to say this anymore, but no one who hits under .220 is a good hitter.

In 2024, the major league average OPS is 714, an on base percentage of .313 paired with a slugging percentage of .401.

Just a few years ago, good teams had several players that fit the .350/.450 model. For example, the 2015 Kansas City Royals that won the World Series had Eric Hosmer, Alex Gordon, Lorenzo Cain, Kendrys Morales, and Ben Zobrist.

The 2016 Indians had Jose Ramirez, Tyler Naquin, and Carlos Santana who did it, while Jason Kipnis and Francisco Lindor were very close.

Right now, the Arizona Diamondbacks lead the majors in runs scored and they have three such batters: Ketel Marte, Jake McCarthy, and Joc Pederson. The Yankees have scored the next most runs and they have just two in Aaron Judge and Juan Soto.

We watch the Orioles when they were in town and thought their lineup was pretty solid top to bottom, but they also have only two in Gunnar Henderson and surprisingly Ryan O’Hearn.

This year’s Guardians’ team, 13th in the big leagues in runs scored have just one in Steven Kwan (382/480/862). The next closest is kind of a surprise in David Fry (369/441/810). The Guards are 17th in on base percentage at .310, just below the league average.

The reason for that is that Kwan and Fry are the only Cleveland players who can get on base at a 35% or better clip. Among players with over 200 plate appearances, they do have three hitters who are slugging .450 or better–Ramirez, Josh Naylor, and Kwan.

Our point is the Guardians do not have a lot of real good hitters and the offense could be better if they had more hitters who got on base more often. On the other hand, the art of getting on base seems to be on the decline in the sport, and that’s a shame.

As James also said, the game is measured by the number of outs, not a time clock (pitch clock not withstanding). A 1.000 slugging percentage can be achieved by going 1 for 4 with a home run. If you have a 1.000 on base percentage, your team keeps batting in the first inning.

Can Reyes Change? A Big Question For Guardians’ Offense.

When the Cleveland front office acquired Franmil Reyes during the 2019, no doubt they loved his raw power. He belted 37 home runs that season between his time here and in San Diego, hitting 10 long balls in 51 games with the Indians.

Yes, Reyes was prone to strikeouts, the same as most young power hitters. He fanned 156 times against 46 walks, a 28.5% whiff rate with an 8.6% walk rate.

He was just 23 years old at the time, and we are sure the organization felt it could work with him to improve the contact and they might have a middle of the batting order force.

The COVID shortened year of 2020 seemed to bear that out, as his walk rate increased to 10% and his batting average jumped to .275 with an on base percentage of .344. He was previously getting on base about 31% of the time.

Keep in mind, that was a 60 game season, and the big man had just 241 plate appearances.

Last season, Reyes pulled an oblique muscle early in the season, but his strikeout rate increased to 32% and the walk rate dropped back a bit to 9.2%. It is concerning in that you would like to see both ratios decreasing, but it still wasn’t a cause for concern.

While it is still early in 2022, Reyes’ strikeout numbers are getting near Joey Gallo and Mark Reynolds’ territory.

His strikeout percentage has jumped to 41.1% and while that is troubling enough, the walk rate has also dipped to 5.7%. Reyes had an 0 for 26 slump earlier this season in which he was basically swinging at everything and obviously has an affect on these numbers.

He has hit better since the calendar turned to May, going 14 for 42 (.333) and an 833 OPS, but he still has fanned 16 times, walking just four times.

He got out of the slump and into a nice hot streak but hitting the ball where it was pitched and used the entire field, usually a panacea for ending a dry spell at the plate. It wouldn’t hurt to stay with that approach going forward.

Reyes is a big man, and strong enough to hit homers the opposite way without a lot of difficulty, if he can make contact.

And if he can get back to where he was in the shortened 2020 season, he would be a great hitter to bat behind Jose Ramirez, someone who might make you think twice about pitching around the Guardians’ #3 hitter.

If he can’t, he’s a lower third of the order hitter, and more than likely doesn’t have a long future in Cleveland, particularly because the organization doesn’t have a lot of confidence using him defensively.

He’d be a threat in the 7-8-9 hole because if he connects, there’s a chance the ball will sail over the fence. But he can’t be counted on to hit in the middle of the order.

Terry Francona can’t afford to protect his best hitter with a guy who opposing pitchers know they can strikeout if they make their pitch.

The bigger question is can Reyes change his approach as a hitter. The two week stretch where he was red hot say he can, and we will see in the next couple of weeks whether or not he can sustain it.

Otherwise, Reyes might wind up on the list of all or nothing power guys. The Cleveland front office thought it was getting something better than that.